YouGov Welsh poll

ITV Wales has a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions out today, summarised by Roger Scully here. The various different VIs, with changes from December’s poll, are as follows:

Westminster VI: CON 22%(+1), LAB 47%(+1), LD 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-1), UKIP 9%(-1)
Welsh Assembly (Const): CON 21%(+2), LAB 42%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 19%(-1), UKIP 5%(-2)
Welsh Assembly (Reg): CON 19%(nc), LAB 39%(-1), LD 9%(nc), Plaid 17%(+2), UKIP 10%(nc)
European: CON 17%(-3), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 12%(-1), UKIP 18%(+5)

Roger calculates that if repeated at a Welsh Assembly election Labour would retain 30 seats, so still the tinest whisper short of an overall majority, and UKIP would enter the Assembly for the first time with 5 seats. If the European election intentions were repeated in May Labour would return two MEPs, the Conservatives and UKIP one each, meaning Plaid would lose out.


440 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. Wot, no leek up there?

  2. First.

  3. @howard

    Oi !

  4. The red flag still waves over Cardiff, I see.

    The regional assemblies are interesting because the incumbents can act as a government and an opposition to a hated Westminster government at the same time and reap the rewards of both. Obviously the SNP can keep playing this game indefinitely, assuming they lose their referendum, but I wonder if Welsh Labour can remain this popular with Miliband in Number 10. They took a bit of a hit from New Labour, but Plaid had more momentum then, the Lib Dems were still a going concern, and Blairism was more offensive to Welsh sensibilities than Milibandism would be.

  5. You need a dragon for the post image, AW!

    This would be the first UKIP national representatives since Bob Spink, correct?

  6. Incorrect – Bob Spink denies that he ever actually joined UKIP, despite saying he would. So, in that sense, the answer is “no”, MrNameless.

  7. Is it me, or is there some irony in UKIP possibly being elected in Senedd and Holyrood, but not in England?

  8. @Statgeek

    Not necessarily. They are the UK independence party after all. Now if they get seats in the Scottish parliament after indeoendence, that would be ironic. I really do think.

  9. Very pleasing results.But then I expected no less.

  10. Apart from UKIP’s VI in the Euro poll, not a single rating for any of the 4 parties in either of the four polls has moved outside MOE since December 2013.

    Headline in the Rhonnda Bugle, if such a fine organ exists in the Principality: “Nothing to Report Here, I’m Afraid!”

    Mind you, doesn’t OldNat’s rule apply though? Incumbent devolved administration never behind in the polls for over 2 years.

    And all that achieved without a walking, talking political genius like Alex Salmond in sight! Carwyn Jones, take a bow.

  11. Two “d”s in Rhondda, else it’d be a girl’s name…

  12. Tories surge ahead of Plaid into Second Place?

    Or perhaps a better summary – the Socialist Republic of Wales is still that…

  13. “…a walking, talking political genius like Alex Salmond…”

    Never understood this.

    If he’s such a “genius”, how come he can’t turn a slash-and-burn Tory Westminster government, packed full of English toffs, sitting in a corrupt and moribund Parliament…into even the slightest majority support for independence?

    He might be better than some other politicians. But a “genius”??

  14. Oooo…. a luvly, LUVLY poll.

  15. @Steve 2

    The vote isn’t until October. He might still pull it off.

    Salmond probably needs the Tories in Westminster to be doing better.

  16. @RAF
    ‘The vote isn’t until October. He might still pull it off.’

    I believe the vote is on Sept 18th.

  17. “Salmond probably needs the Tories in Westminster to be doing better.”

    Ah, the final-no-really-I-mean-it-this-time piece of the jigsaw.

  18. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour seven points ahead: CON 33%, LAB 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%

  19. Clear Red Sea (applies to Welsh poll too).

  20. @R Buckle

    And there ends the polldrum 39s…

  21. “Two “d”s in Rhondda, else it’d be a girl’s name…”

    Quite right, Neil, and I thought I’d dropped a goolie as soon as I’d typed it!

    Maybe I was thinking of that old Beach Boys hit, “Help Me Rhonda”, but even then I’d spelt it wrong.

    Many apologies to all my Welsh friends, especially Ann in Wales.

    P.S. Talking of that old Beach Boys hit, we used to sing a version of it when I worked for Rover in the 1980s. It was called Help, Help me Honda!

  22. Interesting to see no net swing between the two main parties in Westminster VI. The evidence from Scotland suggests more or less the same thing.

    Therefore, for the GB-wide polls to add up, the swing in England must be about 1% higher than the raw figures suggest. Given that England is where most of the action is (I know there are a few marginals in Wales) this could go part of the way to explaining why there seems to be a bigger swing to Labour in the marginals when, if there was to be a differential, one would intuitively expect it to go the Tories’ way thanks to first time incumbency boosts.

  23. Lib Dems on the march.

  24. I’m confused by this thread already! There appear to be a number of posts commenting on a post that has (presumably) disappeared.

  25. @DavidWooding: Labour open up 7 point lead in YouGov poll in The Sun tomorrow: Lab 40, Con 33, UKIP 11, LD 9.

  26. Drunkenscouser

    Re Incumbency – yes it exists (and the school play and fate opening appearances etc by MPs in marginal will be increasing this year) but in part this will be moderated by the one off impact of the Ashcroft Millions according to the man himself.

  27. Jim Jam
    That would be a fete worse than death would it ?

  28. @Ewen L/JimJam

    “That would be a fete worse than death would it ?”

    Not as bad as a fete accompli. I attended one of those in my local village many years ago. The tombola and raffle results were a foregone conclusion.

  29. @ Crossbat 11,

    Maybe I was thinking of that old Beach Boys hit, “Help Me Rhonda”

    IIRC the Tories used to sing it at Chris Bryant when he’d pop up to lob Tony Blair an easy Whips’ question. Good times.

    I read somewhere on the interwebs that marginal polling in 2009 showed the same pattern we’re seeing now- ie. the Opposition way ahead, although in that case it was the Tories- but the effect didn’t show up in the election. Does anyone know enough to verify or refute this?

  30. It’s difficult to comment on Welsh politics, as the only coverage on TV News tends only to focus on problems that London has decided to focus on.

    That the Westminster Coalition parties are unpopular in Wales seems unsurprising – given that Wales isn’t in SE England!

    Yet the local varieties seem less affected.

  31. Labour VI share seems to be creeping up – probably due to flooding woes. Apparently there are more storms due next week. If this keeps up, the Coalition message of “economy on the up” will still pushed aside for longer. Although that may not be a problem if the recovery is generally experienced rather than read about on the news.

    Fete? Isn’t that cheese?

  32. Am I the only one who does not know the difference between
    Welsh Assembly (Const) and Welsh Assembly (Reg).

  33. @ Hamish
    Am I the only one who does not know the difference between
    Welsh Assembly (Const) and Welsh Assembly (Reg).
    ————-
    Yes, you are. On this site you are amongst geeks who know that sort of thing. :-) You’ll soon be one too, if you come here often & we hope you will.

  34. Guymonde

    “Punt” is simply Gaelic for “Pound”.

  35. @OLDNAT

    As I said in a previous thread, an Irish banker told me they chose the name because it rhymed with bank manager.

  36. @ Old Nat

    Seems to be a proud tradition in Scottish Labour to insult foreign countries. I’m not sure why so many of you do that.
    ——————
    And, on a more serious(?) note – the above is why Anthony won’t let you & I converse on this forum. I’m not the avatar of Scottish Labour – you always seem to be trying to hold me, personally, to account for what you perceive are their failings or policies or lack of policies or whatever.

  37. To return to the thread!

    It would be interesting to see the poll cross-breaks for the different parts of Wales, in terms of the UKIP vote.

    Is UKIP strongest in the more “Anglicised” areas of the country?

  38. @Amber

    “At the moment, polling shows that a plurality (maybe even a majority) of the UK electorate don’t believe that the UK should be willing to cooperate.”

    Of course not. If Cameron, Osborne, Miliband, Balls and Clegg all said “It’s in both countries interests to cooperate” then the polls would change.

    Project Fear is working, and it would be a great shame if the decision in September were made for the wrong reasons. I suppose the flip-side is that by September, the anti folk will have made the whole thing poisonous, and there might no going back.

  39. A “40%” for Lab this merry morn. Can we have a few more of those please, AW?*

    *you could do one of those methodology changes like Populus did, and bob’s-yer-uncle.

  40. Good Morning this lovely Half Term morning.
    NICK P. The Labour figures seem to have crept up slightly.

  41. Interesting YouGov this morning, I agree that the Labour lead seems to have recovered to 6-7 from 5-6. The detailed analysis of the two main parties was much more interesting though. Not much joy for Cameron or Miliband. You could read it as capable but dsliked or incapable but liked or better still your both rubbish.

  42. Phew, is it safe to come out now that it appears Amber Star and OldNat have gone to bed after their all night altercation? I have clear sympathies with, and a preference for, one of the protagonists but as I scrolled down the seemingly never ending tit-for-tat, the thought, “Give it a rest for Gawd’s sake” did spring to mind!

    I plead guilty as charged on some occasions, but this fine site only let’s itself down when it becomes an endless rebuttal and counter-rebuttal exchange, losing sight, as it does inevitably when that transpires, of the polling related issues we’ve been invited to comment on. Harmless badinage, fine, and I love all our occasional flights of fancy, humour, reverie and tomfoolery when all’s quiet on the polling front, but there are one or two on here who can’t resist the endless argument and the obsession with trying to get in the last word.

    My role models are those that just periodically comment in isolation and avoid the conversation and debate. I’m no role model on this, as I say, but I will try harder to aspire to these standards from hereon in.

    Agent-provocateurs, attack dogs and rebuttal units belong in party campaign headquarters.

  43. Interesting that 64% of UKIP supporters think ‘The Conservatives are too obsessed with
    Europe, instead of tackling problems here in
    Britain’

  44. Two things which I have not seen discussed much

    1) Will the current flooding problems affect GDP growth ? I have seen it mentioned by a few newspaper commentators, that it could have some affect on growth, but I am not sure why this would be. Surely money is being spent to cope with the bad weather and this may be more than lost trade/tourism.

    2) Shale gas – Will the exploration for this be delayed due to current flooding ? Does the land need to nice and stable before they start drilling into it ? Will the current problem of sink holes occuring lead to any further fears being expressed ?

  45. @ Crossbat

    No, one of us is up & about! But seriously, I’m not posting about Scotland again until after the referendum – it’s just too inflammatory & even when I try to be amusing or interesting it never works out…

    @ Ewan

    Thank you :-)

    @ Rosie&Daisie

    Good morning :-)

  46. I maintain that the Lab VI is the most important measure as Tory VI (like all Governments will move around as a result of events).

    After a run of 39s and now a 40 safe to say Lab VI has edged up a touch on YG maybe a whole 1% depending how low one thinks it went.

    There was some good analysis a couple of weeks ago about DK/WV movement from 2010 Lab and Cons identifiers. I wonder has the Tories retention fallen a touch to WV/DK with a proportionate increase for Labour – or have Lab recovered some that had drifted out to WV/DK.
    Net of Churn of course :-).
    In short I expect Labours actual support to have only increased a touch but maybe some is a little firmer?

  47. I don’t like commenting negatively on other posters but I will say Peter Cairns is always interesting, informative and non-didactic as well as articulate and respectful of those with different views.

  48. Basically not one of us has a clue why the polls and VI go up and down.
    We can all guess and have some fun but thats all it is!

    :)

  49. Totally agree with Jim Jam about PC :)

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