The monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight with topline figures of CON 32%(+2), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 15%(-4).

The Labour lead is unchanged, but UKIP drop four points. ComRes’s online polls typically show some of the highest levels of UKIP support, and this is the lowest figure for UKIP they’ve shown for ten months. As ever though, don’t read too much into a single poll, unless other polls start showing a general decline in UKIP support it’s probably just a blip.

The poll also reasked the favourability question it asked last month. You might remember that last month it came out with the rather surprising finding that UKIP had the highest proportion of people saying they had a favourable view of the party. This month’s figures instead show people have the most favourable view of Labour (31%), followed by the Conservatives (28%), followed by UKIP (24%). As usual with these questions Cameron outpolls his party (31%, so three points higher than the Tories), Miliband underperforms his (22%, so nine points lower than Labour).


97 Responses to “ComRes/Sunday Indy – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 9, UKIP 15”

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  1. Could be a result of the Wythenshawe coverage, it could not, but I suspect both Tories and Labour will be happy to have gained 2 points each.

    Rubbish for Clegg, as usual.

  2. A good time to post a couple of charts.

    UK 30 poll data since Nov’11 – http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/30-poll-ave.png

    The Lab / Con lead based on the data above – h ttp://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/30-poll-ave-lead.png

    Note that the data labels for UKIP and Lib as UKIP polls above Lib. Basically the data label above relates to the party above and so on.

  3. Also can we have some data please AW? The approval ratings are intriguing me.

    Cameron’s popularity ahead of his party is often cited as an electoral asset, but I want to know where that popularity lies – is it (as I suspect) popularity with most Tories, some UKIP and pro-coalition LDs, or does it run the ideological gamut?

    Similarly, is Ed Miliband’s unpopularity down to lukewarm feelings among Labour voters or vitriolic hatred from the other parties? Quite a common opinion from Labour voters on the doorstep in Hallam is that they’re no fans of Ed but will vote for him anyway and that’s all he needs from his party’s supporters.

  4. Typo:

    “Note that the data labels for UKIP and Lib flip as UKIP polls above Lib.”

  5. @Statgeek’s chart shows a bit of a downturn in Lib Dem fortunes since conference. One point of VI isn’t a huge amount, but it probably looks bigger when you’re only clinging on to ten of them.

  6. @RobbieAlive & MrNameless (from previous thread)

    I live in a fairly affluent part of south Liverpool which was once Tory: the Tory organisation is utterly defunct. (The local Tory club shut many years ago & God only knows what’s happened to it).

    There has not been a Tory councillor in Liverpool since the mid 90s. There is every possibility that from May 2014 the Council will be 90% Lab. This is not healthy!

    Hehe. I think we could go on for a quite a while.

    The shift in northern cities has however been quite remarkable. Way back in the day the Tories ran Liverpool, largely due to sectarian voting patterns, but these days Woolton is the only part of the city where they can even put up a half-respectable showing.

  7. ComRes data: http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_16th_February_2014.pdf

    @MrNameless – Cameron’s favourability, for Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, is 75, -67, -12, -47. Miliband’s favourability, for Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, is -70, 38, -38, -66. So although they are roughly equally unpopular among the other’s supporters, Miliband is less popular among his own supporters, and less popular among Lib Dems and UKIP-ers.

  8. Hmm, as expected with the Lib Dems in coalition. I suppose we return to the question of whether leadership will affect voting on the day, or whether it’s already “priced in”.

  9. Oh, and Clegg is -32, -60, 46, -73, i.e. mediocre among Lib Dems and despised by everyone else. Farage is -24, -46, -48, 70, so not at <-60 for any of them, and only a slightly higher "Neither/DK" score.

  10. @MrNameless – Personally, I suspect that it’s priced in – or may be even less important than that, given that not a single voter will be actually choosing directly between David Cameron and Ed Miliband when they stand in the voting booth.

  11. Chris Martin

    Thanks for the link.

    Interesting that the sample from the part of GB that isn’t England & Wales is unrepresentative of actual voting – even when specially reminded that they are being asked to recall how they voted in the important GE.

    Either, the sampling was poor, or a significant number of people there prefer to forget that they voted Labour in 2010 and imagine that they voted for some other (non-UK) party.

  12. @OldNat – I find it hard to believe that there are people who think that they voted for a non-UK party in the 2010 UK general election. Anyone who thinks they voted for the US Republicans, the German Social Democrats, etc, is presumably ineligible to vote due to insanity!

    I think it’s more likely that they recall voting for a UK-based party such as the Scottish Nationalist Party.

  13. Mr Nameless
    No go areas for Labour?
    Highland doesn’t quite come in to this category. In the three northernmost seats Labour is second in each (though by a an infeasibly tiny 2 votes in Kennedy’s stronghold I think)
    The Inverness seat was fairly recently the UK’s only 4 way ultra marginal and campigning in Inverness is strong amongs all parties.
    Unusually, Labour (as a small minority) is in coalition with the SNP on Highland Council.
    So not quite the same position as the Tories face in the northern cities.

  14. Chris Martin

    But there isn’t such a party in existence, so they may well have thought they were voting for the Arbeiderpartiet.

  15. Not good flood polling for the government in either of the polls tonight:

    Observer: Cameron done well 21% Badly 51%
    Indie: Getting a grip on the flooding Yes 23% No 59%

  16. “Personally, I suspect that it’s priced in – or may be even less important than that, given that not a single voter will be actually choosing directly between David Cameron and Ed Miliband when they stand in the voting booth.”

    You’ve not heard of the new seat of Doncaster and Witney then?

  17. Barney Crockett

    I always think of Inverness as a “northern city”. Did you move Aberdeen when I wasn’t looking?

  18. @Mr N

    “You’ve not heard of the new seat of Doncaster and Witney then?”

    I believe they are going to shorten the name to Doncey in honour of the candidates.

  19. No YG tweet?

  20. Mr Nameless
    I’ve been[posting on the partisan split on these matters of ‘who is the best’ for ages. Labour voters are more equivocal about Miliband but that is I suspect a function of being a Labour voter. It has been the same in the YG polls too.

    I think the only reason the clients are asking the pollsters to do these questions (same with ‘economy’) is obvious, to me, anyway.

    It’s the answer to ‘are you /do you think you will be / better off that’s the key one and that is what keeps Labour VI up on 38 plus.

  21. Just dipped into the site to see if there was any weekend poll news after spending a very pleasing afternoon in the fine city of Sheffield. £2.40 for a pint of fine ale compared to £3.90 for a pint of undrinkable fizz in London two weeks ago and bus and tram fares still measured in pence rather than pounds. The North/South divide starkly illustrated and it looks like Blunkett’s Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire of the 80s lives on as a workers paradise!!

    As for the current political scene, no ground-breaking developments or election game-changers in evidence, but after a shaky period, I think it’s undoubtedly been a good week or so for Labour. The Wythenshawe by-election suggested the party is still in rude health in its northern citadels and the claim that UKIP is as big a threat to Labour as it is to the Tories has been exposed as a canard, as I strongly suspected it might. The polls, after a period of slow narrowing, due primarily to the Labour VI wilting, seem to be reverting to a steady 7 or 8% Labour lead again.

    The Tories have been a little unlucky that the better economic news of late has been crowded out by one of those “events” we’ve often referred to on these pages. Many have mocked old Supermac’s saying as a cliché but, like all clichés, it has more than a semblance of truth about it, as Cameron is now discovering.

  22. Steady 7% or 8% lead? We’ve had one 7% lead. All the rest of the latest clutch have been more like 5% or 6%….

    Rose tinted glasses?

  23. Neil A

    I wonder what it must be like to live somewhere where only one poll in the last 3 years has shown the principal opposition party with a lead at all, after the Government has been in power for 7 years, and the latest poll showed an 11% lead for the governing party.

    Such a place would be showing a very un-British attitude amongst its voters.

  24. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10641488/Flood-hit-areas-earmarked-for-more-homes.html

    Funny, it it wasn’t so cruel. Published plans to release land for housing developments in areas currently underwater.

  25. ALEC

    But just think of how useful all these houseboats are going to be when the next Dunkirk evacuation is required.

  26. @Alec

    Cheaper land for developers?

  27. Same article also says 40,000 homes were built on flood plains in the ten years to 2011, so hardly a new problem.

    Given that we’re also not supposed to build news homes on the upland areas that drain into the flood plains, it rather begs the question of where these hundreds of thousands of additional homes are supposed to go each year.

  28. Opinium figure for Observer are:

    Con 28% (-1)

    Lab 37% (+1)

    Lib Dem 8% (n/c)

    UKIP 17% (n/c)

    Others 10%

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/15/david-cameron-fumbled-flooding-crisis-poll

    Strangely, despite being assured that the Guardian was a left-wing newspaper by some on here, they have failed to show this increase in the Labour lead on the website’s front page.

    Incidentally they also show Cameron (-14) only barely ahead of Miliband (-16) in the Ugly Contest.

  29. Roger Mexico

    There’s something (though not much) to be said for living in a country where the main political party leaders are held in almost equal contempt.

  30. I know since the Thursday’s by-election the question of where UKIP get their vote from has been doing the rounds.

    I have looked at the last 8 YG polls, and they are quite consistent in the share of 2010 voters from Con, Lab and LD that now support UKIP.:

    Party – Mean – SD

    Con – 16.1 – 1.64
    Lab – 4.5 – 1.41
    LD – 8.1 – 1.64

    So if you weight the mean by the 2010 share of the vote you get:

    Con – 5.8 %
    Lab – 1.3 %
    LD – 1.9 %

    Given that UKIP have a mean VI of 11.9 % over this period, this is the share of their vote from the Con, Lab and LD voters in 2010:

    Con – 49%
    Lab – 11%
    LD – 16 %

    So I think with some confidence that while UKIP has taken votes from Labour, they are doing far more damage to the Conservatives, as the by-election demonstrated.

  31. Opinium figures for Observer are:Con 28% (-1)Lab 37% (+1)Lib Dem 8% (n/c)UKIP 17% (n/c)

    Apologies to one of my avid readers who has rebuked me on my estimate of the size of the current Labour lead. I referred to it as 7 to 8% when I obviously should have said 9%!

    Lol, as they say in the North.

  32. No doubt you’ve revise your estimate up to 10% now, in light of the Opinium poll….

  33. OldNat

    ” I wonder what it must be like to live somewhere where only one poll in the last 3 years has shown the principal opposition party with a lead at all, after the Government has been in power for 7 years, and the latest poll showed an 11% lead for the governing party.”

    Well actually welcome to Wales old chap ! In fact I think Labour has been” in Government ” by your definition for almost 15 years and ahead in virtually every poll too – Westminster & Wales unlike SNP. There is actually little between Labour and Plaid policy-wise so we have little in the way of real opposition. If Scotland votes Yes what is your plan to develop an effective opposition that can challenge the executive ? We’d appreciate advice down here as one Party states are not compatible with real democracy IMHO. After 15 years of the Nats or NatLab you may wish you had stayed with us ;-) but at least I assume they will not compete to start compulsory Gaelic for Glaswegian schoolchildren … though stranger things have happened…

  34. Despite the poor Opinium figures that Cameron had on the flooding that Shevii referred to above, Cameron’s approval figures are rock steady from a fortnight ago. I suspect for many people it just feeds into existing preconceptions. Miliband’s do represent a jump from -24 however.

    There’s also a climate change question in Opinium:

    Some have said that the recent flooding is a sign of climate change/global warming. Would you agree or disagree?

    Strongly agree 18%

    Somewhat agree 33%

    Neither agree nor disagree 20%

    Somewhat disagree 14%

    Strongly disagree 10%

    Don’t Know 5%

    It’s not great wording and someone who followed the standard line of “No single individual extreme weather event can be put down to climate change but …” could have actually replied with any one of those options except (v). The more scientifically minded might even have been put off by that word ‘sign’. But it does illustrate how most people will credit climate change with some effect.

  35. oldnat

    There’s something (though not much) to be said for living in a country where the main political party leaders are held in almost equal contempt.

    You mean:

    Salmond +7

    Lamont +9

    Davidson +2

    Yup not much in it.

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/ipsos-mori-scotland-monitor-charts-december-2013-VI.pdf#page=6

  36. Welsh Borderer

    I knew there must be somewhere that matched something like that description.

    Turns out to be somewhere that can be discussed without flag flying.

    However, if the voters persist in supporting one particular set of politicians, then that would be something called “democracy”. Isn’t that what the UK has supported the US in, by invading countries that didn’t follow such a principle?

    You may be calling for the UK/US alliance to invade Wales to oust Carwyn and replace him with someone more acceptable to you – but the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan should give you pause.

  37. Welsh Borderer

    I knew there must be somewhere that matched something like that description.

    Turns out to be somewhere that can be discussed without flag fluttering.

    However, if the voters persist in supporting one particular set of politicians, then that would be something called “democracy”. Isn’t that what the UK has supported the US in, by invading countries that didn’t follow such a principle?

    You may be calling for the UK/US alliance to invade Wales to oust Carwyn and replace him with someone more acceptable to you – but the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan should give you pause.

  38. Roger Mexico

    Touche! :-)

  39. @Neil A

    It’s perfectly possible to build housing that will survive the kind of flooding we’ve seen with only inconvenience rather than property damage. Most obviously stilts in high risk areas, but also building in drainage far in excess of what is needed day to day, and reserving some of the area as a green park space at lower level than the housing that can have water held on it.

    There has been no long term planning around introducing these practices as planning requirements. And there hasn’t even been anything said about doing so now!

    Basically, the message has been out there, there needed to be tighter regulation not of where but of how things were built. And to build around flooding not just try to prevent it. But this advice was not considered acceptable or dismissed as “expensive environmentalism”.

  40. UKIP will presumably hope that the EU elections will offer a chance for them to regain some momentum, but they did so well last time round due to a one-off expenses-scandal boost that it will be very hard for them to achieve spectacular gains, and so it will be hard to spin the elections as a breakthrough for them.

  41. Also, re Climate change polling.

    If you asked a perfectly selected representative panel the question “Is the chemical combination of NaCl and the solvent CH3COOH used in some food outlets potentially harmful?” the answer would not give you information as to if you should put salt and vinegar on your chips.

  42. Jayblanc

    Don’t want to be pedantic (which means I am going to be)

    I wouldn’t call ethanoic acid a solvent particularly – it isn’t often used for that as it is water-miscible, high-boiling and has a tendency to freeze.

    It tastes nice on chips though – but only if diluted!

    Sorry for this post but don’t get to post about chemistry very often…..

  43. I think I read somewhere that Carwyn Jones has the highest approval rating of any British politician.

  44. Mr Nameless

    In which case, he should clearly be deposed! If the Welsh had been kept in their proper place, then the situation would never have occurred.

  45. OldNat

    “Democracy” is one of those words which has many definitions and many components within those definitions.

    Greeks who coined the word would not regard ANY representative system as democracy. Especially after allowing for 30 – 70% not voting at all.

    To me top definition is a system which facilitates voters who decide to “get the rascals out”. At least once in a while. Otherwise the conceit and ultimately corruption flourish. And new ideas go to waste.

  46. Welsh Borderer

    Indeed. I was delighted to see the 3 UK parties suggesting this week that they would take punitive action against any part of the UK exercising so-called “democracy”.

    Your last paragraph, however, reminds me of my Dad’s “boot theory of politics”. No matter how they start out, any group of politicians will turn to using the system for their benefit and not the people’s. The only solution is to boot them out on a regular basis.

    Wise man, my Dad. It’s why I find it incomprehensible that otherwise intelligent people declare undying loyalty to a political label – no matter how tawdry that label has become.

    I’ll vote Green after the Euros, because Pat Harvie seems to be leading a group of politicians who aren’t bent on self-aggrandisement – yet. My take is that Labour have long sold out : the governing party of this part of the world will do so, in due course : so I’ll get my retaliation in first. :-)

  47. Mr Nameless

    Yes – some would think “strange but true” about Carwyn.

    He is of course up against an opposition leader whose travails with his own shadow cabinet and party are already being written into Welsh folklore ;-)

    Plus if in practice you are skilful enough to merge the common interests of Labour and Plaid in the public mind, that accounts for two thirds or more of the electorate and is likely to give you better personal ratings (this happens to DC on a lesser scale via the Westminster coalition which is why EM’s deficit is much less serious than some claim).

  48. OldNat

    Ah yes, We can now both retire to our beds hoping for no more climate-change engendered storms and to dream of voting for Greens in their welly-boots … Many feel it’s a great pity we don’t have any Greens in the Welsh Assembly

  49. Old Nat –

    Why only after the Euros? The Greens only just missed getting an MEP in 2009, so they might welcome your conversion a little sooner. I’m not trying to influence your vote, of course, just wondering why, if you know you’re shifting, you have decided to wait.

  50. Welsh Borderer

    I don’t know about the Green Party in Wales, but you have suffered from the storms recently, so doubtless all your politicians are wearing wellies or waders, since the jet stream moved a little further south and dumped its product on you rather than us!

    The main effect here seems to have been an economically beneficial snowfall on the ski resorts.

    I noticed that BBC News were reporting on North Korea developing ski resorts, but suggesting that its leaders just wanted to spend the tax take on nukes.

    So reminiscent of our own dear leaders at Westminster!

    As you say, time for bed.

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