Populus’s twice weekly poll today has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15% (tabs here. These figures are on the back of a slight tweak in Populus’s methodology. Previously they weighted party identification to figures drawn from the 2010 British Social Attitudes survey, which normally resulted in heavily downweighting UKIP and meant Populus tended to show one of the lowest levels of UKIP support and some of the highest levels of Lib Dem support.
Using the new method Populus have factored in alternative sources for their party ID targets, with the effect that they are weighting the Lib Dems and Labour to slightly lower figures, UKIP and no party to slightly higher figures. Hence while this is a low Labour lead compared to most of Populus’s polls over recent weeks, some of that is down to the method change: using Populus’s old weightings today’s figures would have been Con 32, Lab 37, Lib Dem 11, UKIP 12.
Also out today we have a new YouGov Scotland poll in the Sun. Referendum voting intentions are YES 34%, NO 52%. Yes is up one point since YouGov’s last poll, No unchanged. By itself the change is insignificant, but looking at the wider trend of polls on the Scottish referendum there is a general trend of a small shift towards YES since the publication of the white paper. Past Scottish referendum polls are collected here.