The Sun have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov figures. Topline voting intentions are CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. The five point lead is the same as in yesterday’s Sunday Times.

Meanwhile the twice-weekly Populus poll has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 9%. Full tabs are here.


485 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 38, LD 11, UKIP 11”

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  1. @colin – re love across the divide, and your concern at the tidal wave of pro Lab stuff on here.

    I’ve just returned to UKPR after a brief sojourn when I dipped into the Wings Over Scotland site. Disaster! I posted in my usual style, trying to represent my thoughts in as accurate and factually honest way that I could.

    The result was, with one or notable exceptions, that I suffered howls of rage, accusations of idiocy, I was a simpleton, what I said was ‘b@llsh!t’. When I queried the need for abuse like that, I had the site owner himself say that describing my views as ‘b@llsh!t’ was a perfectly acceptable form of debate, and on, and on.

    My overwhelming sense was that the vast majority of cybernats represented on WOS live in a state of complete denial of any alternative viewpoint. The most entertaining bit was when I picked out that the original post by the site owner contained a fundamental and basic statistical error. The issue was on how much better off Scotland would be if independent, he completely misunderstood the figures, came out with a grossly exaggerated claim, and the entire thread was all about how the media is oppressing them as it never reports ‘good’ news for Yes. When I pointed out the error, the abuse just got worse.

    That was only my second experience of online posting, and I can say that the politeness and humanity shown on here is affirming. I am appalled with the awfulness of other posting sites, but can genuinely thank everyone here for the good grace and humour displayed, alongside the opinions.

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  2. CARFREW

    Oh all right then -Good luck Norbold-but I hope a Conservative beats you.

    There-is that acceptable?

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  3. @ALEC

    Hear hear. This site is such a pleasing discovery and as a dilettante cyber-warrior I am continually humbled by the intellect, experience and depth of knowledge of many of the posters here.
    All with what regulation that looks and feels like a light touch but is actually pretty strict.
    Thanks to AW and the posters on here!

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  4. That is good news for Derby.

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  5. Conservatives 35 and a take from UKIP.

    Someone asked whether there was much more for them to take from that source. Well, obviously there’s another 10% on the figures from last night, BUT… the other day it was Labour 42 and taking from UKIP.

    If that signifies anything (other than margin of error.) surely it means that a lot of those who swelled the UKIP ranks are a bit flaky. And that’s not surprising because they are there on the strength of feelings (including exasperation and anger) centred around one or two big issues, rather than having a particular political leaning.

    On that reading, however, those people are not going to leave UKIP en masse just because of a fear that one or the other of Conservatives and Labour can’t be allowed to do well or badly. They will only leave for a party seriously dedicated to their issues (can that be Conservative or Labour?) or just possibly for the mother and father of a ‘Don’t tell Sid’ style bribe. But they are serious about their issues, and that must surely mean the mother, father, aunties, uncles and all the cousins of a bribe, which (let’s face it) isn’t going to be on anyone’s table.

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  6. Colin D
    I think you are setting the bar too high and that many UKIPPERS will understand FPTP and vote for the least unpalatable from their perspective of the contenders in their constituency with a core remaining which I think will be 5-6%.

    Using the latest poll (I know not accurate) a 4% drop to 6% would most likely give the cons a lift of 3%ish over Labour.

    The main impact of the UKIP for me remains the extent to which DC has had to abandon large parts of the centre to ensure the returnees from the UKIP which makes it harder for the Tories to take Centrist votes.
    This pressure on DC can be expected to increase after the Euro Election.

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  7. Yes, great news for Derby,

    Now can we all stop talking down the jobs being created by Hitachi at Newton Aycliffe?

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  8. The idea that the tories are going to come back from a 4/5 point deficit to a 3 point lead in 15 short months is beginning to look rather ambitious, a triumph of hope over experience.
    For this to happen, two independent events have to occur. UKIP has to collapse, as well as Labour.

    These events are independent since the simple truth is that labour have consistently polled over 35% since august 2010, nearly 3 and a half years, or 42 months for the more numerate. UKIP were on 4% for much of that time. Labour’s getting 35% of the vote is largely independent of what the UKIP vote does.

    The notion that in 15 months time, Labour get significantly under 35% (<33%) again is very hopeful and is belied by all the polling during this parliament up to now. This doesn't mean it's impossible. It just seems unlikely.

    If Labour are on 35%, the Tories need 38% just to be the largest party. this is all pollyanna, pie in the sky stuff.

    I expect labour will edge the popular vote by half a point or so, with something like 305 to 320 seats, short of an overall majority in the house. The tories will be on 255 to 270 or so. This is roughly where the betting is, at the moment. It's rational and unfortunately, for tories, probably a decent reflection of what will happen.

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  9. There was some discussion on here recently about the Conservative’s advantage with respect to the Party leader, but I think people fail to realise that Cameron’s advantage here isn’t that great – especially given that the serving PM always has an inbuilt bonus on these sort of questions.

    In today’s tracker Which of these would make the best Prime Minister?, Miliband is on 27%, which is his equal best score ever (the only previous one was 2012 Conference Season) and his scores on yesterday positive positive qualities question wasn’t much different from Cameron’s. The fact he actually got 49% for “None of these”, compared to Cameron’s 47%, suggests it’s still about who is coming last in the Ugly Contest[1], but the current PM’s lead here isn’t that impressive.

    Party leadership may not be the magic ticket that will save the Conservatives at the next election as so many seem to hope and it also has got to be remembered that Cameron has already fought one election where his ratings didn’t improve from campaign exposure[2]. Miliband can only gain in such circumstances, which is why Labour seem keener on televised debates at the moment.

    Today’s 35% for the Tories may on the high side boosted by the recurring problem with the under-25s, but they do seem to be holding on to those weak-UKIP votes in the last week or so, and would almost certainly get them back at an election.

    [1] Speaking of which, going by the recent fit of shag/marry/kill here concerning the attractiveness of the leaders, many people seem to derive their assessments entirely from what they read in the papers, rather than what real human beings actually feel. On any objective measure Cameron is even odder-looking because his features are too small for his face while Miliband’s are too big, which is supposed to work better. Also he has those big brown eyes, which must get the dog-lovers’ vote. Clegg is certainly the most conventionally handsome, but with those rather bland good looks that men think women fancy, but they don’t.

    [2] Clegg’s boost came only slightly from Cameron (and not at all from Brown) but mainly from DKs:

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-100518.pdf

    As Clegg seems unlikely to repeat this feat (though a small uptick wouldn’t surprise) this pattern suggests there may be unconvinced votes out there to be won. As they haven’t been converted by nearly four years of Cameron, it is probably that, if they go anywhere, Miliband will benefit.

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  10. ROGER MEXICO

    @”t they do seem to be holding on to those weak-UKIP votes in the last week or so, and would almost certainly get them back at an election.”

    The question is -what proportion is “weak”.

    Both the Ashcroft Poll analysis on pb & today’s YouGov have 45% is of the UKIP vote coming from “Con 2010″

    ie around 4% to 5% pts of VI

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  11. The recently released IFS Green Budget makes very interesting reading.
    “Oxford Economics, with whom we are again collaborating, expect growth of 2.6% this year and also think growth will be more balanced than in 2013. They expect it to be less reliant on consumer spending, with stronger performances from business investment and exports. Growth of 2.6% would leave the UK amongst the fastest growing developed economies.
    Debt will continue to be a constraint. Even under the government’s ambitious plans for spending cuts national debt would only return to pre-crisis levels in the mid 2030s.
    No evidence of a housing bubble yet. They may be recovering but, in real terms, house prices remain around 25% below their previous peak. Even in London real prices are still 17% lower.
    No easy money in reducing income tax relief for pension contributions There is a myth that further restricting income tax relief on contributions to private pensions would be an equitable and largely harmless way of raising substantial sums of money. It would not be. It would impose a degree of double taxation on pension saving. It would also further disadvantage young savers relative to current pensioners, and would add more complexity for those in defined benefit pension schemes.”

    Basically IMO, they are encouraging about the current recovery and it’s nature but warn that more spending cuts/tax rises will be needed because of the size of our debt. They imply that with our increasing reliance on a small group of very rich taxpayers additional taxation of this group could be problematical and counter productive. In other words if extra tax is needed to maintain services at current levels then it will have to come from middle earners. They are critical of both Government and Opposition proposals on taxarion and childcare support.

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  12. Peter – you are entitles to your view.

    Colin – thanks for the link which I think supports my man contention of underlying closeness.

    Those figures for new support from other but mainly DNV last time of 32%, 16% and 9% for UKIP, Lab and Con respectively are intruiging as experience tells people respond in polls that they will vote when in fact they never will often choosing the flavour of the month and seldom the Governing party.

    Reckon lucky if the UKIP keep half that 16% which shaves 1% or so off their VI straight away.

    Would be great if we knew the make up of the Lab and Tory supporters from other/DNV, esp how may lab are 2005/10 refusnicks who did not go LD?
    16% of Lab VI is more than 32% of the UKIP with 9% of Tory VI in the middle so still could be net gain for the Tories from abstentions currently giving a VI but prob less than 1%.

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  13. TOH

    It is a very interesting read and broadly encouraging from our point of view.

    I particularly noted their criticism of both the proposed Labour 10% tax band, and the government’s concentration on Tax Free Allowance increases.

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  14. Colin – got reply in auto-mod for some reason thanks for link.

    Re 45% Tory 2010-UKIP – some will stay UKIP maybe only 1/3 but some and with some lab 2010-UKIP staying we get a gain for Tory v Lab of around 3%.

    I accept some on here believe that much more of that 45% will remain with the UKIP – if they are right the numbers the Tories need from our sources increases of course.

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  15. @ Colin

    If 45% are coming from Con it must mean 55% are coming from Lab & LD? UKIP got 3.1% at 2010 GE which leaves about 7%, assume you took the 3.1% into account otherwise 3.15% off Cons and most of the rest probably from Lab.

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  16. COLIN

    Thanks, I also thought the comments on the risks of raising money by reducing tax relief on pension contributions very sensible.

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  17. @Bantam

    32 of that 55% are either ‘other’ or ‘did not vote’, 7% Labour and 14% LibDem.

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  18. Sorry, 8% Labour.

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  19. Bantams

    UKIP current VI

    Bantams -
    the link is interesting but the post on pb can be hmm

    2010 Tory 45%
    2010 LD 14%
    2010 Lab 8%
    Others/DNV – 32%

    Assuming most of the 3.1% still voters and supporting the UKIPO they will be in the 32%.

    Don’t know why Ashcroft not had 2010 UKIP in his charts – maybe does not trust recall which is reasonable.

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  20. JIM JAM

    Thanks.

    Bantams

    UKIP VI in this mornings YG Poll-10% pts is made up of :-

    From Con 2010 47%-or 4.7% pts
    From Lab 2010 8%-or 0.8% pts.
    From LD 14% -or 1.4% pts.
    From DNV 2010 31%-or 3.1% pts

    Since YG do not include UKIP in 2010 id ‘ers, the DNV bit includes UKIP 2010 voters-and they seem to have retained 100% of them.

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  21. Hi Jim Jam

    At least everyone’s now concentrating on the only realistic place the Conservatives can look to get the votes to challenge Labour – and that’s UKIP.

    No one doubts that UKIP supporters understand the system. The big question is, accepting they know the system inside out, are they likely to shift to the Conservatives when push comes to shove? You and I are in agreement the Tories will have to move heavily into UKIP’s big issue territories in order to get those votes, and you note that Cameron’s already headed there – and will go further. But how effective will that be?

    Well, we don’t know, obviously, but Tory moves into UKIP territory to date have stood out like sore thumbs for opportunism, and haven’t proved convincing. I think the key lies in the ‘attitudes and feelings’ angle. The first big sea-change of this parliament involved swathes of people leaving Conservative ranks for UKIP. They weren’t just angling to get out of Europe and curb immigration, I’d suggest. They were saying, “You are savaging the economy, when there’s a more instantly available remedy, i.e. get out of Europe and curb immigration.” I think it’s unlikely people who left the Tory ranks as soon as austerity reared its head are going to head back to the Tory ranks because the Tories make opportunistic noises about Europe and immigration.

    As for the Tories leaving the centre ground, that’s interesting, but will those right of centre voters head to Labour? Unlikely, seeing as Labour has left the (Blairite) centre also. Will they go to the LD’s? Also unlikely, seeing as they didn’t come from there last time, when the LD’s were doing well. I think they will stick with the Tories myself. Of all the available voters, those – I think – will be most prone to take the sweeteners Osborne will offer them and respond to TOH’s ‘improving economy’ line.

    All in all, therefore, I don’t think there’s as much for the Tories in the UKIP people who left them since 2010 as you are suggesting. There could be a small bonus for Labour from the Labour voters who went to UKIP last Spring, but for either of the big parties to look to the UKIP VI for a late bonus seems highly optimistic to me.

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  22. Hear Hear Alec.
    I never post but am very regiularly found in the gallery following debates. It is by far and away the most civil and intelligent conversation about mainstream British politics, involving a complete cross section of views. An oasis in a overly opiniated world!

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  23. Just realised my comment below is unsound as 2010 UKIP voters in with Others which actually are probably the most secure – sorry.

    ”Those figures for new support from other but mainly DNV last time of 32%, 16% and 9% for UKIP, Lab and Con respectively are intruiging as experience tells people respond in polls that they will vote when in fact they never will often choosing the flavour of the month and seldom the Governing party.”

    Reckon lucky if the UKIP keep half that 16% which shaves 1% or so off their VI straight away.”

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  24. If the comments on the Telegraph site are anything to go by (OK, they probably aren’t) UKippers are more likely to switch to Labour than to give their support to Cameron.

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  25. And top of the morning to you Paul.

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  26. Colin – agree about centre right voters staying with cons and think many have as the LD route is closed (they would never vote Labour although a few may have for Blair).
    Some have become WV/DK and this is another pool the Tories can tap in to for 1% lift or so.
    Labour just need to retain 2010LDs switchers and a decent proportion of 2010 non-voting support including first timers.
    It is this group who imo will become firmer Lab by Tory right wing rhetoric.

    We have to agree to disagree about how many 2010 Cons UKIPPERS will return but we are both taking a view that works against our desired outcome in 2015.

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  27. Different Colin oops.
    I think Colin D is left leaning..
    Posting and working at same time leads to errors.

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  28. IPSOS Mori

    CON 31 (+1)
    LAB 38 (-1)
    LIB DEM 12 (-1)
    UKIP 10 (-1)

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  29. Hi Jim Jam, yes, I saw that before heading off to make a coffee. Didn’t think anything hung on it though, so coffee won.

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  30. @JIM JAM

    ‘Posting and working at same time leads to errors’.

    Very true. See my earlier spelling of ‘opinionated’ and ‘regularly’.

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  31. All seems to be in limbo, polling-wise, with just a question mark over whether Lab lead is small or medium.

    Its certainly not large.

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  32. Its not raining !!!!

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  33. new thread

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