As well as the YouGov and Opinium national polls, there were also two Scottish referendum polls. Regular readers will recall that ICM’s Scottish poll a week ago showed an interesting narrowing in the race, so the question is whether this will be repeated elsewhere.
Survation’s first referendum poll in the Mail on Sunday had topline figures of YES 32%, NO 52% and don’t know 16%, very similar to the recent YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls. Given it’s Survation’s first Scottish referendum poll we obviously don’t have any changes from last time.
More interesting are the figures from TNS-BMRB which have YES on 29% (up 2 points since December), NO on 41% (unchanged). The change is small in isolation, but looking at the broader trend from TNS there does appear to be a gradual increase in Yes support. In August they has Yes on 25%, October on 25%, November 26%, December 27%, now 29%.