This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up here. Topline voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%. Put alongside the YouGov polls this week that showed Labour leads of two, three, three and ten points this doesn’t really tell us much – it would be in line with a reduced Labour lead of three or four points, or would be in line with not much having changed at all and the lead still being five or six points.

We do however, also have an Opinium poll in the Observer and that had topline figures of CON 29%(-1), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 17%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago and obviously don’t show any sgn of Labour’s lead narrowing. Populus’s poll on Friday also had no signs of movement, with topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%.

The rest of YouGov’s poll concentrated mainly on Labour, the economy and expectations of what an incoming Labour government would do, along with a grab-bag of questions on other various topics which I’ll leave you to explore yourselves.

32% of people think George Osborne would make the best Chancellor, 23% think Ed Balls would. Osborne maintains a lead of about ten points, the same as YouGov have shown for the last year. It suggests that the recent announcements by Ed Balls really haven’t made much difference to how he personally is seen. You can say the same about George Osborne – his figure on best Chancellor has been at 31-32% since December 2012 now. People may think the economy is getting better, but it doesn’t mean they are warming to Osborne.

There is, however, significantly more confidence in the government as a whole to sort the economy out. 41% of people now say they have confidence in the Cameron led coalition government to steer the country out of economic crisis (up from 29% last March), 52% do not (down from 66% last year). In comparison only 25% say they would have confidence in a Miliband led Labour government.

YouGov also re-asked some questions they first asked back in March 2013 on how well people think Labour would perform if they won the next election, showing people are getting rather more negative about how Labour would perform in government. A year ago 32% thought Labour would take the right decisions to help Britain’s economy, that’s now fallen to 26%. 34% think they’d ensure public services provided good value for money, down 7 from last year. 50% think they wouldn’t have a team of minister up to running the country (up 7), 51% think they wouldn’t avoid mistakes from the past (up 5).

Compared to last year these are significant drops in how well people think people seem to be having more and more doubts about how Labour would perform in government. The drop comes over the period of time that Labour’s lead has fallen from around ten points to around six points. Of course, right now people’s worries about Labour in office are not enough to prevent Labour having a lead in voting intentions. Their worry should be if those negative trends continue.

There were also two Scottish polls in the Sunday papers, which I’ll return to later…


163 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 39, LD 8, UKIP 11”

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  1. @ Pups,

    I can never be sure. But no doubt some grammar expert will be along to set us straight shortly.

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  2. ah …. gottit

    Should be “which is mad” ‘cos a faction isn’t a who.

    If ole Govey had been around when you were being educated then you would have known that.

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  3. R and D
    I was just intending to help and I see you got there yourself Paul. What I wrote earlier is important IMO. It’s not so much what you intend to say or write but how you do so in the class war. It was one of the important factors missed out when class was being discussed a while back. You would not catch B Johnson making grammatical errors. It’s his talent for use of English and intensive early training in that area that got him where he is today (IMO).

    There was a time when I thought the toff stuff would be an electoral handicap in some constituencies, but Crewe and North East Somerset (to name but two that Labour lost) put paid to that notion.

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  4. Interesting article in the DT on how dislike of Cameron (and to a lesser extent of Miliband) benefits UKIP:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100257745/ukip-supporters-really-dislike-posh-dave-but-they-cant-stand-ed-miliband-either

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  5. I think the Tim Yeo thing is simpler than Spearmint suggests: he shows pretty clear signs of competence and, most damningly, sanity.

    Anne Macintosh has precisely the same flaws but in her case they are compounded by a birth defect. She’s a girl.

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  6. It strikes me as interesting how Labour extremist dissenters do their best to keep their party in opposition. Conservative extremists do their best to turf their party out of government.

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  7. “It strikes me as interesting how Labour extremist dissenters do their best to keep their party in opposition. Conservative extremists do their best to turf their party out of government”

    So that I’m not always supporting one side I shall support the Tories in this instance.

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  8. Thinking about toffs, it didn’t do Wedgwood Benn (ex Lord Stansgate) any harm in his constituencies, did it?

    Summing up Tim Yeo’s views, (pro Europe, environmental, pro gay) it amazes me that he was not deselected before. I just wonder if his constituency membership became more UKIP-ish over time?

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  9. Just read a brief report on IDS at a Commons committee – in it he says “with respect” [my least favourite expression due to its patent insincerity] THREE times.

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  10. Be more honest if he simply said

    “Well, f*ck you Mr Chairman, but…… etc etc etc….”

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  11. With respect R and D, I think that is a bit unfair.

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  12. @Howard

    Do you think it was really the toff line in the Crewe by-election that lost it for Labour?

    Certainly, the tide was already turning for the the LP but personally, I felt very uncomfortable that Gwyneth Dunwoody’s daughter was out on the election trail even before the funeral. Perhaps unfairly, I think if I’d been one of the voters, I’d have wondered about the character of the sort of person who would do that… but maybe that’s just me and others didn’t feel the same. In any event, perhaps it was her mother’s wish – who knows.

    Nevertheless, I thought that the MSM pushing the line, about the electorate not caring about where a candidate was educated, was very convenient for the Conservative hierarchy.

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  13. Guymonde

    That last post was very partisan, utterly untrue and very very unpleasant. You reveal a lot about yourself with posts like that.

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