The Sun have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov poll – topline figures are CON 32%, LAB 42%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%. This is somewhat at odds with the Labour leads of two, three and three points so far this week, though for what it’s worth all four polls would be within the normal margin of error of CON 34, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 12, the average of this week’s figures.

When an unusual poll comes along I personally rather discount it – more often than not it’ll just be a blip. When the same happens two days in row it gets my attention, but I wouldn’t conclude anything. When you get three in a row I normally take it seriously, it looks as though something is afoot.

But it can still just be random chance. Right now we don’t really know what the position is. It could be that tonight’s poll is an outlier and other polls will continue to show lower leads. Alternatively it could be that actually nothing’s changed and its all just been random variation around the six point lead we’ve had for months. As ever, time will tell.


392 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12”

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  1. Please Please Please stop all this Scottish Independence crap every thread get taken over by it.

  2. RogerRebel,

    It’ll all be over by October- after which we’ll move on to discussing either devo-max (if the result is “Naw”) or transitional arrangements (if the result is “Aye”) for the next few years. And even if we all vote yes and it’s 2017 and you’d think you’d be rid of the question, there will still be the question of what all this rUK polling news means for Scotland.

    Like Canada and Quebec, the pain is never-ending.

  3. SHEEP & BILL P

    Nope again I don’t see a positive case for the union but more NAT bashing.
    ……
    “The negativity/positivity spin is a snare and a delusion”
    _____

    Really?? in what way?

    I thought the banks went pear shaped under the UK so hardly an endorsement there.

    So big is best then.
    Hmm

  4. Any theories, Howard?

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/31/what-it-about-lib-dems-and-sci-fi/

    “Time and time again the Liberal Democrats appeared as the most correlated political party for Sci-Fi related topics (try searching for things in the search box above). Movies like The Matrix, Blade Runner, Alien, The Fifth Element, Stargate, Back to the Future and Close Encounters of the Third Kind and sci fi classic books like Hitchhikers’ Guide to the Galaxy, Dune and I Robot – ALL show positive correlations to support for the Lib Dems.”

  5. DAISIE _

    I think Amber put it succinctly yonks ago:

    Whatever happens will be made to work ‘cos it will have to. Whether one way is better than the other won’t ever be known so its just going with one’s gut instincts.

    All the rest is boll*cks
    ______

    Good point

  6. Allan Christie,

    “I thought the banks went pear shaped under the UK so hardly an endorsement there.”

    Is that a positive argument for independence?

    What would constitute a positive argument against independence?

  7. rogerrebel

    Please Please Please stop all this Scottish Independence crap every thread get taken over by it
    ____________

    From what I read on the forums it’s not those who support the NATS who start the debate so maybe if some people would stop posting snide remarks on the issue then the topic might not had come up.

    But the mighty Roger has spoken so the rest of us must kowtow.

  8. BILL

    Sorry but all this Scottish independence stuff is crap and you wrote “Like Canada and Quebec, the pain is never-ending” so best just to end it there.

  9. Mike Smithson of political betting has been tweeting out ICM Wisdom index. Does anyone know where we can find the tables? ICM doesn’t seem to have them up.

  10. Chatterclass – ICM don’t usually put them up until Monday at the earliest

  11. Positive case for the union (trying to think above the devolved level here):

    Combined armed forces with resources for training, weapons, research and equipment. Combined foreign policies, with many or most of said policies probably going to be similar most of the time. Combined buying / selling / negotiating power.

    Positive case for Independence:

    Separate armed forces with illegal wars not being foisted upon Scottish troops or voters; a sharing of intelligence, research and training will probably be likely. Separate foreign policies, with Scotland free to make its own friends, outside of Westminster lobbying (Holyrood lobbying might apply). Reduced buying / selling / negotiating power, but every chance of the two nations forming a team in some cases.

    It’s all subjective, and it all depends on whether ‘x’ is possible, affordable and desirable.

    So for me, rather than decide on these issues, I’ll stick to “Do we stay a backwater of London / The South, or do we take the chance to punch above our weight, and although winning is possible, we risk losing too.

    Devil you know or an unknown which might go either way.

  12. “Devil you know ”

    That is no way to talk about us English winners.

  13. STATGEEK

    That’s a fantastic comment but I think ROISIE hit the nail on the head in a previous comment. Stay together and we can still watch Eastenders ;-)

    DAISIE
    “That is no way to talk about us English winners”
    ___

    The first half aint looking too great on the Rugby front.

  14. Phil Haines

    Any theories, Howard?

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/31/what-it-about-lib-dems-and-sci-fi/

    “Time and time again the Liberal Democrats appeared as the most correlated political party for Sci-Fi related topics (try searching for things in the search box above). Movies like The Matrix, Blade Runner, Alien, The Fifth Element, Stargate, Back to the Future and Close Encounters of the Third Kind and sci fi classic books like Hitchhikers’ Guide to the Galaxy, Dune and I Robot – ALL show positive correlations to support for the Lib Dems.”
    __________

    Simple theory, they’re Klingons.

    Lib/Dems love to (Klingon) to power at any cost wither it’s getting into bed with the Tories or with Labour in Scotland.

  15. “The first half aint looking too great on the Rugby front.”

    Have France been replaced by Scotland for the second half?

  16. GUYMONDE

    Daisie is from North of the border and I’m from south of the border so who is your question aimed at?

  17. To the gods in general.
    Looks like France came back :(

  18. GUYMONDE

    “Have France been replaced by Scotland for the second half?”
    __________

    It appears so. Oh dear never gloat until the fat lady sings.

    Well done Scotland… ;-)

  19. Marvellous in Paris.

    However, what time do the polls get tweeted? Does anyone know?

    Thank you

  20. @Allan Christie

    “Lib/Dems love to (Klingon) to power at any cost wither it’s getting into bed with the Tories or with Labour in Scotland.”

    While the other parties don’t like to cling on to power? The Conservatives “cling on to power” by going into a Coalition with the Lib Dems. So what is that phrase supposed to mean?

    And what on earth has it got to do with polling?

  21. I am getting a little sense that’s Scottish independence isn’t the cat in …..s chance I thought it was.

    Also, Tories accused of politically motivated appointments in public bodies and quangos?!

    Clearly some people have no sense of irony after the last Govts appointments!!!

    For what it’s worth, I think this has happened to a certain extent since Roman times!!!

  22. RC

    “While the other parties don’t like to cling on to power? The Conservatives “cling on to power” by going into a Coalition with the Lib Dems. So what is that phrase supposed to mean?

    And what on earth has it got to do with polling?
    ________

    Why are you asking me? You wrote it..

  23. RICH

    “Also, Tories accused of politically motivated appointments in public bodies and quangos?!”
    ______

    Yeah I know next the Tories will be accused of appointing the Queen as head of State and Neanderthal man was a appointed Tory quango.

  24. “RC

    “While the other parties don’t like to cling on to power? The Conservatives “cling on to power” by going into a Coalition with the Lib Dems. So what is that phrase supposed to mean?

    And what on earth has it got to do with polling?”

    Jolly good point although, having said that, looking at the polls I’d say the Lib Dems are dooooooooomed.

  25. DAISIE

    “I’d say the Lib Dems are dooooooooomed”
    ______

    They could Klingon to the northern isles.

  26. “Jolly good point although, having said that, looking at the polls I’d say the Lib Dems are dooooooooomed.”

    Perhaps we’ll get that nice Mr Steel back.

    It’s on days like this that I remember that me old mum was Welsh

  27. GUYMONDE

    “It’s on days like this that I remember that me old mum was Welsh”
    ______

    How do you think I feel? Born in England, moved to Scotland when I was 7, Scots father, Italian mother..

  28. You suddenly seem more interesting,
    ever thought of changing your name to Sassolino Christie?

  29. LAB lead at 7 in Opinium poll for Observer
    Lab 36, n/c
    CON 29, -1
    Ukip 17,n/c.
    LD 8 n/c

    A low score for the Tories. No sign of “economic good news” saving them yet.

  30. @LordAshcroft: Opinium /Observer poll LAB 36% CON 29% UKIP 17% LDEM 8%

  31. @Statgeek

    “Devil you know or an unknown which might go either way”

    I shall be telling this with a sigh
    Somewhere ages and ages hence:
    Two roads diverged in a wood, and I,
    I took the one less traveled by,
    And that has made all the difference.

  32. Is that a poll of marginal?

  33. Interesting article for all Europhobes.

    http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/how-many-echr-cases-did-britain-lose.html

    “During 2013, the Court [of Human Rights] found that the UK had violated Convention rights in just eight of these [1,652] cases. If this tiny clutch of judgments represents war on British justice, I’d love to know what an acceptable number of adverse findings might be. This is two fewer adverse judgments than last year, representing an overall rate of defeat before the Court for the government of just 0.48% during 2013. ”

    In terms of polling, however, I suspect that such nasty things as facts will not be allowed to influence the people’s votes via the GB media.

  34. @ OldNat

    “In terms of polling, however, I suspect that such nasty things as facts will not be allowed to influence the people’s votes via the GB media.”

    Come on, this is Britain you are talking about. Facts and emotive political beliefs do not coincide here! Indeed, facts are a wretched nuisance as they spoil all the fun!!!

    If you want politics based on factual realities you have to go somewhere where they take politics seriously, like Germany!

  35. Matthew Parris.

    I generally treat his opinions with contempt. Partly because I used to know one if his researchers, who was full of opinions and light on facts. Mainly because Parris once wrote a piece where he mused whether sea level rise was due to sediment being carried into the ocean. If a man can build a case on such flinsy foundations AND go to press with it…

    Anyway, today I reckon he’s hit on the reason why the polls are so set in concrete. He wrote in the Times “The PM has presided over astonishing economic growth.”

    Amen. I reckon both the Left and the Right would find nothing to question in that statement.

  36. Leftylampton

    I was about to question “presided”, as that implied having control. Then I checked, and found that it can also mean “act as president”, so I withdraw my doubt.

  37. Tomorrow’s Sunday Herald

    “new poll confirms gap is narrowing” – possibly a TNS-BMRB poll?

  38. T Dean
    But the impression of a dominant rationality in German politics is superficial. The German response in all mainstream parties to the Euro crisis was irrational. I am the chair of the trustees of a large pension fund. Our bond dealer responsible for many billions of pounds firmly believed Germany would have to back the Greek Euro borrowings from rational self interest. But they didn’t because like almost all European nations except Britain the voters had a terrible folk memory that something really terrible can happen. In this case hyperinflation or “the day money died”
    Britain’s very near unique lack of giant ruptures means we find it hard to understand events in other countries. Things don’t always just work out.

  39. Survation Scottish poll

    No 52% to Yes 32% before the leading questions begin.

    Anyone know how this compares with previous Survation polls?

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Scottish-Referendum-Report-VI.pdf

  40. The Sunday Herald ‘s estimates are 42 % yes , 29 % no . 29 % undecided .

  41. Lefty,
    I read that article and the one he quickly rushed in to refute.He is of course the
    Partner of Cameron’s speech writer.Toby Helm interesting in the guardian..

  42. Correction lol , the Sunday Herald is reporting 42 % no , 29 % yes . A true Scot’s dreaming caused a typo !

  43. Chasglas

    Would that it were so! However the TNS poll numbers are No 42% : Yes 29% : Undecided 29%.

    “However, leaving aside the “don’t knows”, support for Yes among decided voters was 41% – up from the 36% recorded by TNS in October.”

  44. @Ann in Wales

    Only lasted 11 months, now a spad at department for transport.

  45. “@ Chatterclass

    @LordAshcroft: Opinium /Observer poll LAB 36% CON 29% UKIP 17% LDEM 8%”

    Perhaps the polls that showed only a Labour lead of 1% to 3%, were the outliers. It is looking as if Labour have a poll lead in the 6% to 8% range.

    I think the ST YG poll tomorrow morning will confirm this.

  46. The ‘No’ lead seems to have narrowed by one percent since the last TNS poll?

    I guess technically that does “confirm the gap is narrowing”. But somehow I doubt it’s going to sow fear in the hearts of the unionists…

    (To be fair to the Nats, TNS really has shown a significant gradual narrowing over the past six months. But that’s still terrible poll reporting.)

  47. Why do I get the feeling that the Scottish referendum campaign is going to be pretty toxic between the two sides. People have always said that politics north of the border was a tough game.

  48. I don’t know whether you’ve seen this…
    http://www.icmresearch.com/media-centre/media-centre/icm-sunday-telegraph-wisdom-index-january-2014

    The commentary is annoying, trying to imply the wisdom index carries more weight than a conventional IV.

  49. On the subject of “don’t knows” in referendum polls, has there been any research into which way they tend to break when it comes to the vote itself? On questions that involve leaving things the same versus change, as opposed to choosing between different changes to the status quo. Intuitively it feels like people who are wavering would be more likely to opt to stick with “the devil they know” but that may not be how it works in practice.

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