Tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – so a second YouGov poll with a somewhat lower Labour lead than of late. Again, could still be margin of error, or perhaps we are seeing the lead narrowing. Time will tell.


358 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 37, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. I always put British when ask my Nationality I support England at Football and UK at Olympics.

    -Having lived in Spain and with an Italian Grandfather I like to rediscover my Mediterranean roots when it comes to footie.

    Alistair Darling as a Grey Icon?

  2. Can’t see why the Olympic team can’t be called TeamUK. That way the Norn Iron athletes don’t go unacknowledged.

  3. Any Icon needs a decent set of wheels might I suggest this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-25955249

  4. @BANTAMS:

    “@ Roger H
    Isn’t eliminating the deficit the same as making cuts?”

    Up to a point but you can also do it by increasing revenue, e.g. by raising the top tax rate to 50%. Also Osborne hasn’t (AFAIK) separated investment expenditure out of his deficit calculations so his deficit isn’t the same as Labour’s.

  5. @steve

    Surely this is better wheels for a grey icon

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-25934347

    The one you posted was more Red Ed Balls what with its ‘rosy’ cheeks and cheeky grin :p

  6. Sexism is right wing? Congratulations, that’s the silliest comment I have read on here in 5 years.

    Moving on, agreed on Darling. As I have said many times, one of the few Lab MPs I really like. I think his credibility is actually still fine and from my anecdotal position, I get the feeling he is much more popular than Balls with that key middle class battle ground. I like the way he seems so rationale and non cynically political in his arguments.

  7. In fairness, I think it was just a flippant remark based on the fact that all of the people who have expressed any reservations here about the idea that you should never comment on a woman’s appearance were right-of-centre. Which is an accurate observation. Although also in fairness, I think to some extent the flippancy of those reservations has been a little overlooked in some of the more po-faced reaction.

  8. @Jack – I’m British too.

    @Petercairns – epic post, but pleased to see you didn’t write is all. I think the reporting of the press was reasonable. The noteworthy bit of the speech was the warnings on the risks, and the fact that there would need to be integration of key economic management tasks.

    In all practical sense, this means that to ensure against risks for rUK (and Scotland) Scotland would not have independence of fiscal policy.

  9. JIM JAM

    THanks

    I agree with you.
    Whilst the Con to UKIP defections show signs of reversability & may not therefore be a gamechanger-the LD to Labour defections look pretty solid.

    They have most definitely been a gamechanger-where would EM be without them?

  10. @ Alec

    All the more epic that it didn’t seem to trigger a mod word!

  11. @Jim Jam – “narrative control lost completely during the leadership election… ”

    I would have quite liked to have seen Gordon Brown and indeed the full cabinet remain as opposition leader/shadow cabinet for a good six months or so.
    There would have been a personal investment in refuting the “Labour’s mess” narrative, and an expirienced critique of the incoming adminstration.

    Instead we had to rely on Vince Cable: “There is a kind of Maoist revolution happening in a lot of areas like the health service, local government, reform, all this kind of stuff, which is in danger of getting out of control.”

  12. Alec,

    For me the noteworthy part was that he showed no obstacles to a fiscal union and outlined the benefits.

    As to the loss of “Sovereignty” we seem to be facing the dread prospect of being no more independent than Denmark within the Eurozone.

    Even with the strengthening of the Eurozone rules to allow a common form of insurance against bank risk I doubt the Danes will feel they are just a German province.

    Peter.

  13. @COLIN

    “They have most definitely been a gamechanger-where would EM be without them?”

    ————-

    Well there’s an irony. ‘Cos those Libdems didn’t overly keen on Brown. And wasn’t Clegg’s price for doing a deal with Labour the removal of Brown? Hence why Brown stood down? That’s what I’d heard unless those more in the know about Libdem or Labour affairs have other info
    .
    If so, there are possibly days when Clegg wishes Brown had stayed in place…

  14. I think part of the reason Brown stood down was because of the Lib Dems, but also because of memories of what happens with Callaghan staying too long and letting the ultra-left take control. That wasn’t likely to happen in 2010 but I’m willing to bet it had a psychological effect.

  15. @ROBERT NEWARK

    “Less a complaint, more an observation. I comment no more on it.”

    ———

    Well, speaking personally, I find such comments useful, ‘cos one rarely hears them out in the wild. Online is different, and it’s good to know what folk really think. (Even though on occasion it can be a bit scary…)

    I suppose whether something is a complaint might be subjective, but it definitely seemed critical, however my point was not about that, but that it seemed a hell of an extension for someone concerned with keeping things in proportion, a “sense of balance” etc.

    Still, whatever floats your boat…

  16. @Petercairns – “For me the noteworthy part was that he showed no obstacles to a fiscal union and outlined the benefits.”

    To be honest, that is entirely un-noteworthy. We have a shared currency now, so of course it’s a feasible and workable solution.

    What Carney really did expose is the fact that, to break up a currency union, and then rebuild another one, will need an institutional framework at least as strong as the one that the current union has.

    This is really noteworthy, as the SNP White Paper pretends that Scotland can have a currency union, but fiscal autonomy. Even things like a 3% cut in Corporation Tax may not be possible in a currency union – if I were rUK PM, I certainly wouldn’t permit that. [Note that the Eurozone is wanting to standardize taxes – blindingly obvious requirement for a single currency, except in Salmond’s world].

    Carney deftly kept out of the politics, but the reality he exposed very neatly is that it will be for the voters of rUK to decide if they want a currency union, and if so, what level of control they will require over the minority country.

    This is the simple fact that I’ve been pointing out for a considerable time now. The SNP can say that a currency union is possible – but Scottish voters need to recognise that the shape of that union will be determined by English voters (and I do mean ‘English’, by sheer dint of numbers). With UKIP on the march, I would be very wary of assuming England would accept anything that is not perceived as working for England first, and Scotland a distant second.

  17. But an Independent Scotland could choose to switch to its own currency or the Euro in the future, couldn’t it?

  18. @NickP

    yep, and we’d have to unravel the currency arrangements again.

    They could even reapply to join the Union…

  19. With regard to the defeat of the Raab amendment today,I was surprised to learn that lib Dem and labour combined have a majority in the Commons.
    312 to 303.With the lib Dems increasingly needing to distance themselves from
    The Tories,perhaps this will cause real problems in the months ahead for the
    Conservatives,today’s shambles being a good example of things to come.

  20. NickP
    It certainly could, see USA. In that case, it gave its currency a Dutch name (dalder).,

  21. Ann in Wales
    No they don’t. You need 326.

  22. Howard ,
    Oh yes of course,but as there are quite a few rebels around I would imagine
    Party management will be somewhat of a headache in the future.

  23. Ann in Wales

    Yes I am sure you are right. However, as far as I know, this stuff is not in the Agreement. It makes it more or less a free vote when that is the case.

    The Con backbenchers have been asking for a series of unrealistic measures from Mr Cameron (e.g. veto of matters not possible to veto under already-agreed ‘EU’ law) and I don’t know what he can do about it, except what Mrs May did today.

    On the three in a row. Taking the Lab figures alone, one would not be talking about any change. If the Cons have grasped back a few IKIP VI, (last weekend’s fiascos perhaps) it does not alter the basic situation a great deal.

    I (never satisfied) would like to see a few 36 for Con before I am convinced. Notably LD VI is not suffering further (yet).

  24. Technically you need 322 to not be able to be outvoted on anything, because of Sinn Fein and the speaker.

    @AIW, you forgot the SDLP, who take the Labour whip, and the Alliance, who take the Liberal whip, making the total 316. Then add in Mike Hancock and Eric Joyce, who while lacking party whips are still Liberal/Labour members.

    318 would therefore not be a majority, but the Tories would find it almost impossible to defeat them – of the other parties represented in the Commons, all except the DUP are left wing (I can’t see Galloway, Lucas, or the Nats siding with the Tories) so for the Tories to even match a Lib-Lab group would require all 8 DUP and Sylvia Hermon to come and stay on-side, for the Nats, Green, and Respect to all abstain and for there to be at least four Lib/Lab/SDLP/All. rebels.

    Not going to happen, but interesting maths.

  25. Fraser Nelson, he of the Spectator fame, was very condemnatory of Cameron’s party management abilities and his lack of command of the House of Commons when he was interviewed by Mair on the PM programme tonight. He expressed some sympathy with Cameron about the hardcore Tory rebels who can’t abide their leader and, in his rather pithy words, “can’t wait to press the ejector button”, but the thrust of his comments expressed doubts about Cameron’s authority, citing the Syria intervention debate and today’s shenanigans as evidence of a PM in office but not in power.

    Now, where have I heard that expression before?

  26. The grassroots and backbenchers do not seem to have a tremendous confidence in Cameron. That should be worrying, because if he loses the next election (or even gets another plurality) it could be enough for a defenestration.

    What’s going to happen to Clegg I have no idea. If Ed loses, he’ll go (no Kinnock he) but who will replace him is up in the air (Stella Creasy please).

  27. He’s got enough power to put up VAT and my storage bill. And when it comes to education, to cut my partner’s pay, pension, cut school funding and change the curriculum. I’d say he’s doing quite well with the power thing…

  28. I don’t see that it is a matter of loss of *confidence* in Mr Cameron by the ‘rebels’.

    I see it as a straightforward difference of views on sovereignty, immigration, the role of the state, to name the chief issues.

    Essentially the malcontents are in agreement with the basics of UKIP policy. In a PR system they would have formed a separate party ages ago, one assumes.

    I do find it strange that so much of this comes out in public. After all, unless the rebels are all in safe seats, it’s not a bright prospect they are facing is it? As opposition backbenchers they would have even less influence than they are having now.

    Am I missing a trick here?

  29. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12

  30. Crisis, what crisis?

  31. @Howard

    The thing about the tea-party tendency is that they believe that their pure ideology would be electorally popular.

  32. Lab 42%
    Con 32%
    Ukip 12%

    Labour 10% lead

  33. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12
    ????????

  34. Howard,

    This is my take on it:

    When John Major took power the Tory right was unassailable. The wets were a crippled force incapable of mounting any kind of challenge, and John Major was elected on the understanding he’d carry on Thatcher’s legacy.

    Thing is, he was too pro-Europe for their liking, so the Right set merrily about dismantling his premiership and ensuring he went down to a tremendous defeat in 1997.

    In 2001 and 2005, the Right got their man in the leadership position, and both times were soundly thrashed. So the left of the party staged a coup and got David Cameron in, who was trying to modernise the party.

    Unfortunately for him, he was only partially successful, and couldn’t remove a lot of those who want the Conservatives to be more UKIP-like. They’ve since caused him enough trouble to be a major nuisance, if not to actually bring him down.

    The Tory right has the same attitude as the Labour left did in the 1980s. If you try to modernise a party, in their view, you dilute its message, and your supporters won’t turn out to vote for you, so you have to be ever more stridently Thatcherite.

    In some ways, they’re worse than the Labour left, because many have no regard for their own position. A good deal of Tory MPs are independently wealthy, and to them it matters not a bit whether they hold their seats – they don’t need the money, and if it loses the party one election to become more right-wing and potentially win the next, then more’s the better.

    That’s my view, anyway. Feel free to yell at me, everyone!

  35. Good Evening All from a cold Bournemouth, after a long day culminating in Parents Evening and Tutoring.

    NICK P.
    Crisis? What about that Lib Dem figure?

  36. Margin of error strikes again!!!…

  37. This is a weird situation with the polls. There is a temptation to say that this is the impact of the 50p announcement, but it may not be.

    As AW’s doll would say, wait for the trends.

  38. Ah,this is what happens when you steady the buffs.

  39. It’s official: YouGov are just trolling us now.

  40. Maybe some of you can stop wondering if the changes from one day to the next are due to 50%/PMQs/TV coverage/jolly good joke by Govey etc.etc. and follow our leader’s advice.

    Let time pass and see what happens.

    [We’ll still never know anyway.]

    Just realised, ole Govey doesn’t really do jokes so cross that one out.

  41. 10 pt lead?!? Wowsers that is some moe?

  42. Mr N
    “….In some ways, they’re worse than the Labour left, because many have no regard for their own position. A good deal of Tory MPs are independently wealthy, and to them it matters not a bit whether they hold their seats – they don’t need the money….”

    There may be some truth in this, but I would see it as a good thing. Surely it’s better to have MPs who act according to their beliefs rather than slavishly following a party line because of fear for their jobs? Not better for their party, obviously, but better for the country and democracy.
    —————————-
    The latest poll seems very different to the last few (for Lab and Con). As usual we’ll have to wait a bit to see which polls were the outliers.

  43. “As AW’s doll would say, wait for the trends.”

    Looking at ‘events’ and their potential impact on VI, and observing the magisterial response to flooding in Zummerzett, I’m wondering if the badgers have moved the flood barriers.

  44. @SPEARMINT

    “It’s official: YouGov are just trolling us now.”

    ———-

    Lol, I think they do it just to wind up Sine…

  45. Although to be fair that Tory VI is perfectly reasonable for MoE around an average of 33.5% or so.

  46. Weird or what ?

  47. “The latest poll seems very different to the last few (for Lab and Con).”

    Blimey !! So it does.

  48. @ Pups,

    Oh, I think Mr. Gove is very droll! The one where he’s a Cabinet minister is especially good.

  49. JIM JAM & HOWARD

    Can we make the three in a row rule, six in a row ?

  50. mr nameless

    Fair enough analysis I feel.

    Today in the Commons was fairly typical of the Tory right: its as though they can’t wait to be pure – and out of power.

    …….. and, to borrow an old Harry Enfield line:

    “Is that wot yer want? ‘Cos if it is, that’s wot yer’ll get.”

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