Tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – so a second YouGov poll with a somewhat lower Labour lead than of late. Again, could still be margin of error, or perhaps we are seeing the lead narrowing. Time will tell.


358 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 37, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. I’m not going to comment because Anthony has taken to ‘new threads for old’ at 2230.

    [Not tonight! Ha! Ha! :) – AW]

  2. Labour need to find out why 3 or 4 %pts of VI has gone to WNV/DK.

    Cons need to find out if a further 3 or 4% pts of VI can be coaxed back from UKIP support.

  3. But Labour on 38 was not the ‘three in a row’ feature I was looking for.

  4. True Colin, at least I appreciated your analysis today.

  5. COLIN.
    Good Evening to you Sir.
    Before retreating for the night, a thought: I suspect the 50p lark may suggest that Ed and Ed could increase taxes on other income levels and other areas in the economy.

    TB insisted to GB that the no increase in direct tax pledge be made in 1997.

  6. HOWARD

    Thanks-I didn’t realise you too ( as well as Jim Jam) had pronounced a three in a row rule.

    Great minds & all that

  7. Chris

    And good evening to you too.

    I know the Wednesday Event is verboten here-but I hope I may observe that today EM made it clear to me that he is going for broke :-

    ie Cons are for Rich people & we will put there taxes up because we are for everyone else.

    Yes-I think the economy would be “managed” in a very different way-and yes I think taxes would appear on a number of fronts.

  8. This will probably sink into the news swamp soon, but might be of some interest for political anoraks like us.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/29/labour-abolish-electoral-college-alan-johnson

    The Labour leadership has unveiled its plans for voting on leadership – full OMOV, replacing the electoral college with a system where all members and voluntarily affiliated trade union members can vote and have their votes weighted equally.

    This presumably ties into their union affiliation plans – it says there union member can affiliate for £3 a year.

    So what do we think? Good idea?

  9. The narrower the Labour lead becomes, the more important what happens in the referendum and what to the SNP afterwards becomes. Can the SNP maintain 6 seats at Westminister? if independence goes on the back-burner? It would seem surprising, but since the alternative in most of their seats are the Tories, apart from the Western Isles I’d be surprised if the SNP lose anywhere.

  10. Labour on 38. Nothing’s gone to the Don’t Knows at all, Colin – well, not on this evidence.

    The second part of your proposition stands, however. There is a Conservative improvement, over one or two polls, at UKIP’s expense.

    On a lighter note, as regards the hare and the tortoise analogy, we shouldn’t forget that the tortoise had 100 yards start, and it’s a paradox anyway. The hare does overtake the tortoise in the end. If the paradox were actually to work, the hare would never have started running, and this hare’s run at 38 mph (minimum) throughout the parliament.

  11. @Pups

    “Not just me: poll asking women.”

    I did. The missus says “no”. Sexism is using her gender against her. Fancying someone, regard less of gender is not sexist. I noticed you said ‘talking about a politician’s looks when they are female’.

    Isn’t that sexist? :))

  12. @Robert Newark

    “What bores you two are.”

    Hear, hear!

  13. Surely commenting on the looks of any woman who is not a “lady-for-hire” or a model is then by definition sexist?

  14. Steady the buffs my dears.I think Colin has the answer here ,or at least the
    Right question.Where has that 4%gone?
    My own opinion is that this is the Ed Balls factor.He seems incapable of
    Refuting government statistics in away ordinary people can identify with or
    Understand.Contrast this with with the polished performance of Chukkha Umuna the other day.Ed needs to be ruthless here.Balls has had his chance and failed.You cannot go into a general election with a lamb duck shadow
    Chancellor.

  15. “Steady the buffs”

    I haven’t heard that expression since reading Inspector Calls at high school. I hadn’t even realised I miss it!

  16. Droll that we have mounting evidence that sexism is right wing.

    When you guys can show me a video of a male politician with people commenting that he is a “looker” come and see me again.

    I find the same thing on a classical guitar forum where there are threads – discussing very highly talented female musicians – asking “who do you fancy most”.

    Its just a bit pathetic and schoolboyish.

  17. My first precise 2015 prediction: 37-37-11. Labour the largest party with a small majority. I see Labour falling back a bit, the Lib Dems picking up a good amount of tactical votes in Lib-Con marginals, and the Tories more or less repeating their 2010 performance.

  18. “………………. a lamb duck shadow Chancellor.”

    At least that would be original Ann

  19. “Droll that we have mounting evidence that sexism is right wing.”

    Mind you, the Tory problem is attracting women – not whether they’re attractive.

  20. Roger H

    Thanks for the link. As you say, hardly “overwhelming”.

    Interesting that the polling was in August 2011 – that was just before the decision to opt for a single Force was taken, and the first details of how a greater consultative role for councillors, compared to the old system, were announce,

  21. Well he didn’t (start a new thread) so I expect it will be a magnum opus tomorrow on ‘why my boss is(whoops) / could be wrong about the sophomores’ so will look forward to that.

  22. @ Chris Lane 1945

    You may not like The Suns frontpage tomorrow.

    The Tories apparently want schools to increase teaching hours to 9 hours a day and cut school holidays to 7 weeks a year.

  23. @ Rosie etc
    “Droll that we have mounting evidence that sexism is right wing.”
    Yes it’s 3-0 so far . . .

  24. R Huckle

    “cut school holidays to 7 weeks a year.”

    Great idea! Must be a total pain having the kids back home from Eton for more than 7 weeks.

  25. @AW

    “CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 11”

    A trend then. If this continues, we’re back to September last year, polls-wise.

    Exciting for pollsters then. Squeaky bum time for politicians.

  26. Interesting. Of the small Lab leads this week, one’s been a low Lab score and one a high Con score. Don’t know what’s going on, really.

    But Ann In Wales, I’m starting to turn against Ed Balls m’self. Chuka Umunna would be far better.

  27. “Surely commenting on the looks of any woman who is not a “lady-for-hire” or a model is then by definition sexist?”

    I’ll remember that the next time my missus asks me “how do I look?” before a night out.

    Are you guys, like, single? Never heard the like in all me puff.

  28. My wife’s looks are clearly irrelevant to her roles as a mother and a care home manager. Like you I shall refrain from complimenting her in the future. Wouldn’t do to be seen as sexist. Almost as bad as being a National Socialist or something.

  29. Greetings and Happy New Year

    Good of the Tories to make a game of it. Polldrums was so…last year.

    Will enough people start to feel richer by next June?

    Also can the Tories poll consistently at 35+ in the run-up to the GE? I suspect they will need to do so to outweigh the fact they perform so poorly in metropolitan areas, in many parts of the North and outside England.

  30. Well, the falling lead has passed the Howard-Jim Jam Test. It’s worth noting that’s it’s primarily because the Tories are up, not because Labour are down- Labour have been bumping between 38% and 40% for a long while, and two 37s in a row is well within their MoE envelope (although a bad week for them, obviously).

    Perhaps people didn’t like Ukip’s weather forecast?

    @ Pups re. sexism,

    Well, there’s always Andy Burnham. And as I recall David Steel got a few comments on his looks in his day.

    @ Colin Not Davis,

    For the record, I thought your choice of comparison poll was perfectly sensible, and your analysis was the best that could be done looking at two individual polls. Comparing two individual polls is not an ideal strategy because the crossbreaks are so volatile, but it’s the only practical option for people who don’t have all the YouGov polls in a big spreadsheet on their computer *cough*.

    I’m going to do the January graphs once we get Sunday’s poll. If the lead hasn’t reverted to ~6% by then, I’ll redo your analysis with the monthly figures so we have something a little more solid to work with.

  31. neil a

    “My wife’s looks are clearly irrelevant to her roles as a mother and a care home manager. Like you I shall refrain from complimenting her in the future. Wouldn’t do to be seen as sexist. Almost as bad as being a National Socialist or something.”

    Hilarious I’m sure but you conflate – deliberately.

    If someone said your wife was all at sea as a care manager but was a “looker” then I assume you would see that as both appropriate and some sort of consolation?

  32. @Bill Patrick
    “Can the SNP maintain 6 seats at Westminister? if independence goes on the back-burner? It would seem surprising, but since the alternative in most of their seats are the Tories, apart from the Western Isles I’d be surprised if the SNP lose anywhere.”
    ____________________________

    I’ll be very surprised if the SNP don’t pick up at least one seat come what may. I’ll also be financially disappointed having accumulated a few fixed rate investment bonds on that basis over the past year. They offer a return in the range of 80% to 100% and are set to mature no later than May 2015. Considerably more interesting than the sub 2% returns available from a building society, and a potential return that fully justifies the limited risk that the somewhat dodgy financial services company concerned may repeat its occasional habit of running off with my investment. The bonds are even tax free, just like a cash ISA.

    So far I’m very pleased with the investment and especially delighted with the news that Malcolm Bruce is standing down in Gordon. And if the investment unexpectedly goes belly up next year, feel free to have a laugh at my expense.

  33. Rand D,
    Apologies for the atrocious spelling.Will try to do better.
    Bill Patrick,
    I found steady the buffs in a novel called The Little House by Phillipa Gregory.
    A great read by the way.Now I find it very useful for the calming of nerves.

  34. “Steady the Buffs” a very regional Kentish saying. A favourite of Denis Thatcher, apparently.

    There is actually a Buffs Museum in Canterbury. I visited it once whilst waiting for visiting hours to begin at the hospital where my poor dad was dying.

  35. @R&D,

    Well she’s off sick from work at the moment, but still gorgeous. So I suppose I might….

  36. Darn it, you tricked me into being sexist again….

  37. CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 11

    It’s getting warmer….

    They’re behind you….

    Oh no they’re not..

    Oh yes they are…

  38. I am a bit surprised that Labour is not making more of the fact that the top rate was at 60% for half of the last Tory term in office. Also wonder whether Farage’s performance on DP may have hit UKIP to Tory advantage.

  39. @ Neil A, Statgeek

    Carry on digging a hole for yourselves boys. You may end up in Australia where you will probably feel more at home.

  40. Just returned from watching a thrilling West Midlands derby at Villa Park which, from my point of view anyway, resulted in a welcome and much needed victory for the home side. A seven goal thriller at the Villa, as the headline writers say.

    Polls are tightening, but it doesn’t look like Labour has been holed below the water line. Down a bit but holding steady in choppy water. A bit like my beloved Villa, really!

    I was going to say some unprintable things about one of our regular posters on here that involved the words “****” and “******” but I’m in too good a mood tonight. lol and thrice lol, as my old hero Frankie Howard used to say.

  41. A in W

    “Rand D,
    Apologies for the atrocious spelling.Will try to do better”

    Please don’t.

  42. One final note on the recent YouGov polls.

    Obviously I haven’t seen tomorrow’s tabs yet, but I had a look at the crossbreaks for Tuesday and Wednesday. Tory retention and Tory -> Ukip flux actually looked pretty normal- both good polls for the Tories but nothing too unusual.

    On Tuesday the Lib Dem sample was very odd- the highest LD -> Tory flux since last October, and a really low LD -> Labour flux. On the other hand, Wednesday’s Lib Dem sample was perfectly normal but there was an unusually large Labour -> Tory flux.

    So I think we’ll need to wait for a few more polls to understand the cause of the movement.

  43. CB11

    I feel the same about United

  44. Spearmint

    Has the proportion of “Don’t Knows” changed?

  45. @ AIW, R&D

    “Please don’t.”

    Hear hear. It gives me pleasure to contemplate the idea of a lamb duck shadow chancellor.

    I’m sure Steve Bell could turn it into a cartoon

  46. @Graham
    Sorry Graham. Don’t know how to cut and paste in this format with this phone.

    A 50% top rate on very high earners is not a bad idea but to be effective politically it has to be very well thought through and sold with a great deal slicker marketing than Balls can muster.

    What is the point of a temporary increase in the top rate? It’s utterly useless. Yes ordinary Joes we’re on your side…for a bit. That simply won’t fly in areas where Labour wants it to so as to motivate their core vote into the polling stations. Bigger business and the super rich won’t really be affected by a temporary minor hike. They’ll simply avoid it. It can only work if Ossie takes the bait and seeks to reduce the top rate to 40%.

  47. @R&D

    Going back to Robert Newark’s original remark, I’m just surprised that it was so unbalanced.

    Had the preceding comment about Darling been expanded to something along the lines of “I have good regard for Darling who I don’t see tainted by the Brown connection and besides he has lovely eyelashes” then we’d all have known that it wasn’t just Berger who was being taken seriously.

  48. Graham,

    The reason why the top rate was 60% for much of the period 1979-1997 was simply because Mrs Thatcher inherited punitively high rates across the board (including a top rate of 98% on investment income). It took several years to turn that around, and cutting the top rate to below 50% could not be the top priority given the serious structural problems in the economy.

    In comparison, Osborne has barely tinkered with the tax rates inherited in 2010. Maybe that will change at the next budget ?

  49. Phil

    Really good point.

    [I bet you’re a lovely bloke.]

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