Tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – so a second YouGov poll with a somewhat lower Labour lead than of late. Again, could still be margin of error, or perhaps we are seeing the lead narrowing. Time will tell.


358 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 37, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. @Phil Haines – “The only English region to have been offered this, back in the 1990s, rejected it not least because there were no real devolved powers on offer, rather powers being centralised upwards to regional government from local authorities, which in consequence campaigned strongly for the status quo. Given the experience of Scotland and Wales since, I suspect that those in several English regions would now relish being offered some real devolution of their own”

    Somewhat fascinatingly, NE councils are now banding together to establish a regional operation to pool resources for strategic services.

    The rejection of the NE assembly was largely due to the inadequate powers and the fact that there was no compensating reduction in layers of administration to account for the new regional power. Since then, we’ve seen unitary authorities replace district/county arrangements in many areas, and the removal of One North East, the regional development agency.

    I suspect that if the NE was offered devolution now, we would vote pretty strongly yes, and I would do my smug [email protected] act by telling people I told them so all those years back.

  2. All candidates for the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election have been announced, and nominations are closed.

    Somewhat amazingly, they’re all relatively established parties, with no single-issue parties or independents standing.

    UKIP: John Bickley
    OMRLP: Captain Chaplington-Smythe
    Conservative: Daniel Critchlow
    Liberal Democrat: Mary di Mauro
    Labour: Mike Kane
    BNP: Eddy O’Sullivan
    Green: Nigel Woodcock

    Now that all the candidates are known AW, are you going to start polling?

  3. The NE referendum on regional govt was in 2004. OK so we had a Lab govt and I guess the NE would be a Lab assembly so people might have thought ‘what’s the point’ especially if no powers to speak of were being devolved – not being there I didn’t have much understanding.
    As to the English regions, you’re right (John B I think) to say there aren’t any very natural regions but there are 9 established clusters which have been there for a long time and have been used by government agencies and the like (and things like RDAs until they were abolished) fairly consistently. So Cambridgeshire is known to be in Eastern Region and Kent, Sussex and Surrey are lumped together with Hertfordshire, Berkshire etc and called the South East. Some regions have built quite strong regional identities (in my experience the North East and Yorkshire and Humberside were particularly strong) other less so (Does Cornwall have all that much in common with Wiltshire)
    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmselect/cmcomloc/352/35201.gif

  4. I guess Survation are most likely have a go at W&SE, possibly Ashcroft if he is interested in the Con/UKIP angle, but on recent form other polling companies may give it a miss.

  5. “CON 34%LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – so a second YouGov poll with a somewhat lower Labour lead than of late. Again, could still be margin of error, or perhaps we are seeing the lead narrowing. Time will tell”
    ______

    Yes it could be a MOE and the Tories and Labour might be neck and neck.

    It’s getting tight Boys & Girls.

  6. BillyBob – you can’t do individual constituencies online, so you won’t get YouGov or Opinium. Ipsos MORI don’t do constituency polls either, so that only really leaves Survation, Populus, ICM or ComRes.

  7. mcstatty

    ” I wasn’t aware that “I fancy her” is sexist”

    It is not misogynistic but talking about a politician’s looks when they are female is, in most people’s view. definitely sexist.

    Not least because it is totally irrelevant to the issues being debated/listened to.

  8. Thanks Antony.

    ICM and Populus covered Oldham East & Saddleworth

    Ashcroft: Feltham & Heston (+London Mayor), Corby, Eastleigh,

    Survation: most of the above +Barnsley.

    There must be more… are they collected anywhere?

  9. *Anthony*

  10. Survation also gave us one for Leicester South

  11. RE: Regional Government

    A major problem with regional devolution is Whitehall’s unwillingness to really let go in any meaningful way. The whole devolution issue has been hopelessly bungled in the UK because nobody began by thinking of the consequences and anomolies that would be created by having differing types of devolutionary powers for different constituent parts of the UK. We have the West Lothian question hanging in the air, and many other questions not yet asked about Northern Ireland and Wales.

    I have long thought that if the UK is to survive as a single edifice in the longer term it is necessary to have equal devolution throughout all the UK. However, the mini-Euro regions in England are too small for any meaningful identity (possibly with the exception of the NE). I have long thought that England should be split into just 4 devolved areas as follows:

    Council of the North (NE, Yorks&Humber, NW)
    Council of the West (W Mids & SW)
    Council of the East (E Mids & Eastern)
    Council of the South (SE and Gr.London)

    These 4 should have councils or assemblies elected by the Scottish parliamentary electoral system which would avoid any one party dominating any particular devolved area.

    The devolved powers given to these four areas of England should be given identical devolved powers to those of Scotland, and Wales and N. Ireland should have theirs enhanced to the same competencies.

    The House Of Commons would still sit at Westminster and retain sovereignty, but would probably only have to sit one day a week, and for foreign affairs emergencies.

    Only with such a solution would citizens in all the parts of the UK have equal rights – and no part would elect representatives who have a say over the laws which govern citizens who they do not represent – as at present with the Scottish – and on some issues Welsh and N.Ireland MPs!

  12. Rather than regional governments (which will create all sorts of anomalies in England) we could start by returning to local authorities all the powers that central government has acquired over the last hundred years.

  13. @ Tony Dean

    I’d have no problem with a regional assembly but I’d want to be shut of local councils, we don’t need a triple layer of bureaucracy IMO. They could take responsibility for bin collections, roads, planning & maybe some things handled by central government currently.

  14. Interesting discussion on regional government in England.

    As an outsider, can I suggest that the more fundamental question is whether sovereignty should continue to reside in “The Queen in Parliament”, or whether England should consider the more usual arrangement that sovereignty lies with “the people” (the Community of the Realm).

    If the former, then Westminster/Whitehall will decide which powers they will decide to devolve to subordinate areas.

    If the latter, then the communities of England (however they self define themselves) would decide what aspects of their sovereignty they are willing to pool with others, for their mutual advantage).

  15. “It is not misogynistic but talking about a politician’s looks when they are female is, in most people’s view. definitely sexist.”

    LoL!

    If you say so.

  16. The YouGov figures quoted by Allan Christie would still give a Labour majority of 32, so it may be just a little early to be drawing conclusions that suddenly the Conservatives will be in government next time.

    I do agree that the polls are getting a bit more exciting.

    Where I seem to be wrong in my December forecast of
    35/32/13/12 is in overestimating the LD support at 13%. I did and do find it a bit hard to imagine a party losing over half of its 2010 vote of 23% (6.8m votes), though I am sure there are precedents – the vote of the Irish Labour Party after coalition may be one, I haven’t checked.

    The shift of those 3-4m 2010 LD voters and the expressed UKIP support must make prediction harder than usual, but based on the polls not changing much more I’ll stick to my prediction of a Labour majority of at least 20 through uniform swing, plus in practice a comfortable majority through the UKIP spoiler effect against the Cons, so a slightly higher majority, and lack of agreement among the non-Labour parties adding to a working majority.

    I could be completely wrong.

  17. As an old Regional Assembly member, perhaps I could have a say – but I won’t. Is there polling over this issue or something? The NE voters had not a clue what they were voting for. I heard the most amazing vox pops at the time.

    Read a few here tonight.

  18. Reds probably in need of a decent poll tonight. Another short lead, and I think we can say there’s ‘a trend’.

    Who knows, maybe not even a lead??

  19. ALISTER1948

    “I could be completely wrong.”

    I agree with you about that.

  20. @TONY DEAN

    I agree with your principles about regions (we can debate boundaries another day) but as you suggest the chances of Westminster devolving anything are zip – the opposite is more likely.

    Of course the devolution *mess* is to some extent just an extension of the existing mess, where some places have county councils with districts and boroughs ‘beneath’ them, some places have unitary councils which combine what the districts and counties do. And of course in London we have the mayor and GLA which is another model entirely plus some parts of the country also have parish and town councils. This all seems to me to be a Great British (or I might mean English) Muddle. This of course has now been compounded by some places having directly elected mayors and most (not London of course) a Cop commissioner (elected by – was it? – 16% of the electorate)

    I can’t agree with Bantams that a regional government should replace councils but I really see no reason for the muddle we have at present.

  21. statsi

    “If you say so.”

    Not just me: poll asking women.

    Saying someone looks lovely is a nice compliment at times: saying a woman, discussing finance is a “looker” is not.

    Its not something you hear about men in the same situation [“Blimey! Ozzie is rubbish at sums but wotta gorgeous hunk he is !!”] ergo it is sexist by definition.

  22. Guymonde

    ” I really see no reason for the muddle we have at present.”

    Seems obvious. You kept on voting for parties that created and continued it.

  23. Jack R

    “Reds probably in need of a decent poll tonight. Another short lead, and I think we can say there’s ‘a trend’.

    Who knows, maybe not even a lead??”
    ___________

    Stop it now, with a comment like that you could inadvertently land some people in hospital with high blood pressure.

  24. @OLDNAT

    True, and I suspect vested interests of sitting councillors probably made it not worth the hassle for anyone who thought about rationalising them.

    Poor old Charles Clarke (actually I couldn’t bear him) tried to rationalise the cops in England from 43 forces down to about 10. I believe the cops themselves were all for it but the Police Authority members were horrified at the idea of losing their influence and expenses. And of course directly elected Police Commissioners or whatever they’re called will ensure no change. In Scotland the govt just said ‘do it’ and a single force came to pass.

  25. “Stop it now, with a comment like that you could inadvertently land some people in hospital with high blood pressure.”

    I live in hope.

  26. Rosie &Daisy

    I merely made a comment about an attractive woman, as my wife might comment similarly when Daniel Craig comes on the TV.

    What bores you two are.

    I nominate you for the post of Fun Prevention Officer for the week.

  27. Howard
    I’ll set them up and you knock them down, as my parents used to say, or was it vice versa?

  28. Guymonde

    ” In Scotland the govt just said ‘do it’ and a single force came to pass.”

    Not quite how things work here!. All proposed legislation goes out to consultation and is (not infrequently) amended after that.

    However, with SNP and Labour agreeing that, for a wee country, single Police and Fire & Rescue Services made sense, the outcome was inevitable.

  29. Why did my comment go in to moderation! I was lavishing praise on EM.

  30. RN

    “I nominate you for the post of Fun Prevention Officer for the week”

    Not sure how I am preventing anything but any award is good, ta very much.

  31. @Rich

    Why did my comment go in to moderation! I was lavishing praise on EM.

    May this site has a predictive sarcasm filter ;-)

  32. “However, with SNP and Labour agreeing that, for a wee country, single Police and Fire & Rescue Services made sense, the outcome was inevitable.”

    Scottish democracy in action. Never mind that the public was overwhelmingly against it. No change there, though.

    “Local government is to be restructured. What an opportunity, one would think, for de-centralising as much power as possible back to the local communities. Instead, the proposals are for centralising local government. It’s once again a blue-print for bureaucracy, not democracy. If these proposals are implemented, in a few years when asked ‘Where do you come from?’ I can reply: ‘The Western Region.’ It even sounds like a hospital board.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/still-irresistible-a-workingclass-heros-finest-speech-2051285.html

  33. I was actually being serious. I thought he played a bad hand well at Prime Ministers questions.

  34. Rich – and that’ll be why. We don’t do PMQs discussion here (otherwise every Wednesday devolves into “leader I like was fantastic”, “no leader I like was great”, etc, etc)

    In the meantime, the Sun have tweeted out today’s poll. Still a three point lead:

    CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 11

  35. Well it does look like a genuine narrowing of the lead. Labour now needs to take on the Tory arguments more effectively if it is to reopen a more comfortable-looking gap. The chances of the Tories outpolling Labour in terms of votes in the general election now look distinctly better than they did even a week ago.

  36. @anthony,

    Oops sorry. I guess it doesn’t really move the polls does it.

    definitely a trend here now though with 3 points again. Very good news this for the Cons given likely further narrowing and benefits that the incumbents will get as we head towards the election.

  37. It seems fair to say that the 50p tax pledge has not had a notable impact.

  38. RogerH

    “Never mind that the public was overwhelmingly against it. No change there, though.”

    Not that I’m doubting you, but have you a link to the polling evidence supporting that statement?

  39. $65 billion QE a month !!!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10605806/Federal-Reserve-cuts-QE-by-further-10bn-to-65bn-a-month.html

    When will this madness stop ? They can’t keep issuing money, without severe consequences years down the line.

  40. It’s interesting how different the recent polls have been: some have shown the lead narrowing due to the Tories doing better than usual; one has shown Labour doing worse than normal and the Tories about average; and two have been a bit of a mix.

    The Labour lead hasn’t been in double digits for two months now. On the other hand, we have seen plenty of series of four or so polls in this parliament in which the lead has temporarily narrowed, so I’d hesitate to call this a trend yet.

  41. @R Huckle,

    Agreed. You should read David Stockman! lol

  42. There’ll be some scratching of heads at Labour HQ. They’ve just announced a very popular policy, and seen the majority of recent polls reverse against them.

    I think there’s more work for Labour to do, being honest. I think most people like the policy, but it isn’t enough for them to vote for them. It’s one (in the public’s mind) decent economic policy, but wait, these guys did that last time, didn’t they? That Darling fellow? And we still had a mess. And they’d only spend that money anyway. etc etc. It’s a policy people will tend to nod in agreement with, but no more than that.

    It’s obviously a headline grabber, but not a vote grabber. And for a policy that isn’t a major vote grabber, there’s an awful lot of arguments against it, which the Conservatives, the Press, and businesses have been convincingly putting across in the last few days.

  43. @ Rosie etc

    When I saw the word “looker”, I thought Oh Dear. . . You did your best, but when dealing with the unreconstructed . . .

  44. @OldNat

    Perhaps not ‘overwhelming’ but a solid majority:

    “The majority of Scots oppose a single police force in Scotland”

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2859/The-majority-of-Scots-oppose-a-single-police-force-in-Scotland.aspx

  45. Is AW on the point of saying the lead has narrowed to sub 5?

    Even if the answer is yes though-Why? is the big question to which there seems no obvious answer……..

    …………unless my old compatriot Turk was right.

    The tortoise of steady economic improvement beats the Hare of populist causes.

  46. @JackR: ” They’ve just announced a very popular policy, and seen the majority of recent polls reverse against them.”

    Although they need to remind themselves that correlation does not imply causation.

  47. If there is no possible government with a large majority at the next election, then that will make dealing with the public finances very difficult. I can’t see the next government having anything like majority of the current government, assuming we’re not going to go German or revive the idea of National Labour…

  48. RogerH,

    I think (hope) no-one is suggesting it is. The policy seems to have had no detectable effects. However, this shouldn’t be too surprising: we know from public views on immigration and Europe that public opinion on a particular policy doesn’t necessarily translate into votes.

  49. Roger

    True, though I think they’d be worried nevertheless.

    Presumably in a couple of weeks they’ll have some feedback from activists, giving some real opinions.

  50. Robbie

    tres vrai wot you sed.

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