Tonight’s daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – so a second YouGov poll with a somewhat lower Labour lead than of late. Again, could still be margin of error, or perhaps we are seeing the lead narrowing. Time will tell.


358 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 37, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. @John B: “If Scotland votes for independence, Labour lose 30-35 seats”

    And their opponents lose 24-29.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland

  2. Kind of linked to my last post, regarding events and people’s perceptions of them, I’ve been very intrigued by the response to the flooding on the Somerset Levels.

    It’s clearly deeply distressing for those caught up in it, but the response, like so many I’ve seen in related areas of land management, is to blame ‘the government’, and primarily the conservationists, in this case the Environment Agency.

    Locals are completely convinced that the lack of dredging is the cause, despite the mass of solid, scientific data that completely disproves this claim. [The hydrology is quite clear – dredging reduces the incidence of minor flood events, but has almost no impact on major events].

    As George Monbiot somewhat dramatically claims, the Somerset levels are suffering primarily from abnormal climate events, and a denuding of natural vegetation from the surrounding uplands, almost exclusively down to livestock farming. This can be clearly demonstrated with really quite easy to understand science, but populations will consistently ignore the reality.

    This must give everyone hope (or despair?) for the next election. Sense, feel and gut instinct are probably going to be far more significant that fact and data. Whoever catches the mood will ride the wave, regardless of the actualitie, although perhaps I shouldn’t talk of waves in the same post as mentioning the Somerset Levels.

  3. Thank you Anthony. I did read that magisterial analysis back when, but it had slipped from consciousness.
    Very clear.

  4. Before giving the ‘sophomore’ Cons too much chance of retaining their marginal seats, one needs to look at whether there are
    a) signs that UKIP would do less well than everywhere else and
    b) how the LD candidate did in2010.

    In other words, good old UNS rules OK and double effect this time around.

  5. @RogerH – interesting analysis of Scottish losses. I sometimes ponder that politics seems to be about getting what you don’t want. Lib Dems got power, but will pay dearly for it. Tories oppose AV and want fixed term parliaments, and will probably pay the price for both. Labour is desperate to hold onto Scotland, but might find it easier once it’s gone. The SNP declare their believe in a more leftish independent state, but wouldn’t it be funny if Scotland reverted to the Tory majority it once had?

  6. I think in the 21st-century the public are far less deferential to the economic ‘elite’ – or any ‘elite’ come to that. I can’t see people on average incomes being too worried that those earning over 150 K will be expected to pay a bit more tax.

    It seems to be contributors to this site who fret the most.

  7. @ Roger H

    But the Tories lose only one seat: the others are SNP & LD. This is why it makes it so much more difficult to govern England under Devo-max

  8. @RobbieAlive

    “The driver who boasted on twitter after knocking a cyclist off his bike lost her job & was convicted of failing to stop after accident. She was [bizarrely] acquitted of Driving without Due Care & Attention.”

    I’m following this elsewhere. Is this all the same story.. if it was a lady driver who ‘knocked the cyclist off his bike’ she sure had a macho look and punch!

  9. @Alec

    Remember that in the 50s, when the Tories gained a majority of Scottish seats, the name was Conservative and Unionist Party – the Unionist bit being very important at the time as Labour was suspected of federalist or even separatist tendencies.

  10. @ Guymonde
    “if it was a lady driver who ‘knocked the cyclist off his bike’ she sure had a macho look and punch!”

    No! They were separate incidents, which my sloppy post failed to make clear.

  11. John B
    Very different in Scotland in the 1950’s .
    The SNP regularly polled under 1%.

  12. Noting Jim Jam’s admirable 3 in a row rule, I nevertheless tried to gain some understanding of where the major VI movements have occurred .

    In order to expose significant numbers I have gone back to the last period of regular double digit Lab leads-accepting that this encompasses, but doesn’t highlight any more recent & smaller shift to sub 5 leads ( if indeed such has occurred).

    So my base polls are :-

    26 May 2013-a good old classic set of numbers :-
    30/40/10/14

    compared with todays :-
    34/37/9/12

    Starting with a format which includes WNV & DK , the following are apparent :-

    2010 identifiers are 76% of the sample in both cases.

    That group’s WNV/DKs has increased from 15% to 17%. but this increase is almost entirely caused by Labour voters, who go from 10% of their 2010 identifiers to 15%

    For the “non 2010 identifiers” the same “uncertainty” trend is apparent, but much larger-from 32% of that group to 42%.

    For the 2010 identifier group the big inter-party change is Con 27% of that total group to 30%; and Labour 35% of that total group to 32%
    For the “non 2010 identifiers” Cons drop from 15% of that total group to 13%, but Labour fall from 24% of it to 18%. LDs lose 2% of this group ( 5 % to 3%) , and UKIP lose 3% of it ( 14% to 11% ). The big gainers in this group are WNV/DK & “Others”.

    Cons gain of 3% of the total 2010 identifiers is from UKIP.defectors.
    Labs loss of 3% of the total 2010 identifiers is to defectors to WNV/DK.

    Reverting now to YouGov’format of Excluding WNV/DK
    ; changes between the two polls have been :-

    Con +4, which results mainly from 2010 Con identifiers returning from a UKIP defection

    Lab -3 which results from both 2010 Lab identifiers, and non 2010 identifiers supporting Labour, both moving to WNV/DK

    UKIP -2 which results from 2010 Con defectors going home & non 2010 identifiers leaving UKIP for WNV/DK

    Assuming this is a reasonable outline of what has happened-it doesn’t explain why it has happened.

  13. @John B: “If Scotland votes for independence, Labour lose 30-35 seats”
    And their opponents lose 24-29.
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland
    Report comment

    -Had a thought on this one there are around 600,000 rUK residents in Scotland and 800,000 Scots who live in England.

    Assuming the unlikely event of a Yes vote.

    Unless an arrangement as it exists with the Republic of Ireland was established then these individuals would be entitled to Vote in rUK /Scottish General Election as is the case for other expats .

    Lots of interesting implications.

  14. Colin
    I thought it was my rule, but willing to concede to the ever-perceptive Jim Jam.

  15. Colin
    Just a footnote to your interesting figures, it seems to me (and we see this in the ‘who is best for…’ polling), that those Labour-ish voters are just that – they waver more, thus the move to DK /WNV.

  16. I see the Labour party want another apology from/for a PM we haven’t had for 25 years! I, for one, would like to forget all about Mrs T and the miners. There was great fault on both sides, and one sould remember that more pits were closed under Labour governments under Wilson!

    Now my point – this constant looking back to old wounds is bad for the Labour party, and much more of ‘what we will do’ and less ‘what they did’ is what most voters are looking for.

  17. If these latest polls do show a lessening of the Labour lead (and, of course, we still need to see a few more in similar vein to confirm this), I might say that it comes at a very inconvenient time for anyone, say, who might currently be standing for the Labour Party in a District Council by-election where they have an outside chance of taking the seat from the Conservatives……

    Do we know anyone this might apply to?

  18. Howard
    Whoops! iPad predictive text can get you into all sorts of trouble!

  19. @ Valerie
    I think in the 21st-century the public are far less deferential to the economic ‘elite’ . . .It seems to be contributors to this site who fret the most.”

    Yep. There is a awful lot lot of forelock-tugging on this site. When the rich complain – I recall Marxian maxim: “we don’t judge other people by what they tell us about themselves.”

  20. Hi Colin,

    Aren’t you just picking and choosing where you start and finish so as to get the results you’d like to see? And isn’t that a species of what someone in AW’s recently re-referred to analysis of incumbency benefits called ‘comfort polling’?

    The Conservative average for the last month is somewhere just over 32, and the Labour average is just over 38, isn’t it? So comparing one poll (the latest) to a particular set of figures which aren’t even in line with the averages is bound to give you a far more dramatic seeming picture – surely?

    I think, maybe, there has been a tiny slippage in Labour’s 38 per cent, and maybe likewise the Conservatives have raided the Don’t Knows. There has been a propaganda offensive recently, making the latter unsurprising; the former seems to me to have been the result of a particular tactical move by Balls endangering Labour’s VI in a small and – he hopes – manageable way. Reasons for anything greater than that, however, will only be needed if movements greater than that do actually occur.

  21. HOWARD

    I was acknowledging this from JimJam upthread :-

    “I have a crude rule of thumb that has been accurate since YG daily polls started that 3 in a row demonstrates a real shift which has been backed up by subsequent polls.”

    REgarding Lab waiverers I saw it as a plus for Lab-they might regain their previous certainty.

    Also- I find the WNV/DK proportion of “non 2010 identifiers” staggering-nearly half of them.

    There must be potential for all parties there.

  22. COLIN DAVIS

    @”Aren’t you just picking and choosing where you start and finish so as to get the results you’d like to see? ”

    Nope-as I said-trying to do that excercise for recent poll changes wouldn’t produce anything of significance. Going back to the days of 30/40 does do. IT wasn’t a one-off poll-that was Polldrums” as defined on UKPR for quite a while.

    You are of course at liberty to do your own analysis & choose your own comparisons.

  23. Alec
    Greetings from Somerset, I’m about ten miles away from the flooded Levels and live on a hill, so l ain’t personally affected, but I find your dismissal of the Environment Agency’s role in this a little off beam, as well as not dredging the major and minor water courses for several years they have also built embankments and bundts in places where there had not been obstructions to the fluvial dispersal previously, this means that once flood waters have broken through and occupied land ,they cannot quickly go back from whence they came.
    l note that the right wing tabloids are seeking to inject some party politics into this by identifying Chris Smith as a former Labour minister, in his job as head of the E.A.

  24. @RobbieA

    To be honest, while the Audi fluffed the box, he got the second one right and the cyclist pursued him and continued to harangue him. The car driver was pushed too far (he’s out of order, but the cyclist could have given him the thumbs up for the second box and moved on with his mates).

    Both sides are to blame, when it would be far easier to make the point and move on.

  25. @Alec

    “wouldn’t it be funny if Scotland reverted to the Tory majority it once had?”

    My first reaction to that was ‘no chance’, but after consideration, there might be people willing to vote for a Scottish Conservative party, if the said party is operating without London’s say so. It’s difficult to tell.

  26. @ Steve

    apologies for not getting back before now, but I’ve been battling with a different website for nearly an hour.

    The figure for rUK residents in Scotland is probably not as straightforward as you suggest. I was born in England (of Scots ancestry), but have lived on and off both north and south of the Border for over thirty years, as well as in another EU country. I might well be one of your 600,000, but in fact would class myself, given the choice, as a Scot.

    Scots who go south of the Border tend to have a stronger sense of who they are than non-Scots/partial Scots who come north (the English often assuming that to be English and to be British is one and the same.

    I think that it would be very unlikely that mutual recognition of voting rights would be possible in the way that used to exist (does it still exist?) with the citizens of Eire. EU laws would come into the calculation.

    At present EU citizens living in a different EU country may vote in local elections but not national parliamentary elections. My wife, for example, is at present able to vote for Holyrood but not for Westminster. If Scotland were to be independent she would be denied a vote at Holyrood (assuming that Holyrood continued to be the seat of government). She continues to vote in national elections in her home country.

    If Scotland (or rUK for that matter) were no longer to be in the EU this pattern might change, of course.

  27. Just to show the changing lead, I’ve chucked together the latest. It’s the five poll rolling average Lab less rolling average of Con:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/five-poll-lead-ave.png

    I went back to before the big dip in the lead for a little context.

    N.B. – It is not a rolling average of poll leads (although the result of such a calculation might be identical for all I know).

  28. That depends what you mean by ‘significance’, Colin.

    The May ’13 average was the lowest monthly average for the Conservatives in the whole of this parliament: just under 29. The Labour May ’13 average was just under 38.

    Conservatives have now picked up again to where they were in the late summer of 2012, more or less where they had been for most of the parliament, in fact. Labour had enjoyed a 40-ish average from mid 2012 to Spring 2013, but have stuck around 38 ever since.

    Comparing single polls picked out with a pin just because they give you ‘significance’ is comfort polling pure and simple. The averages may be about to change, who knows? But my hunch is your “Nope” should be a “Yep”.

  29. @Statgeek

    Scottish Conservative Party operating independently of London.

    This would be along the lines of the CSU in Bavaria. Isn’t that what Murdo Fraser wanted to do? The Scottish Tories had the chance and voted it down in 2011. Personally I see no chance of any Tory revival without such a move.

  30. @Roger H

    “@John B: “If Scotland votes for independence, Labour lose 30-35 seats”
    And their opponents lose 24-29.
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland
    _________________

    And there was me thinking that because the Conservatives only won 1 seat out of 59 in Scotland last time around, it would be so much easier without Scotland for the Conservatives to gain a majority of the remaining seats in the UK.

  31. @Phil

    See my reply above – 1.33 p.m.

    The complicating factor is Devo-Max in the event of the (still on balance likely), no vote.

  32. COLIN DAVIS

    You will see that I entered JimJam’s “rule” as a caveat before discussing the numbers.

    Clearly if 34/37 does not persist & is replaced by something else-then a new comparison will be appropriate.

    Regarding the base poll-I couldn’t use an average becauseI needed the data from a YouGov Poll.

    30/40 was a trend for a while, so a Poll which reflected it was what I chose.

    My post analysis the difference between two Polls-if you don’t like those two polls-choose two different ones & do your own analysis.

    I’m not trying to make any political point at all-it’s just an arithmetic excercise.

    You don’t like it-fair enough-don’t read it.

  33. COLIN
    COLIN DAVIS
    Going back to the days of 30/40 does do. IT wasn’t a one-off poll-that was Polldrums” as defined on UKPR for quite a while

    You only have to include last week and you get an entirely different set of averages

  34. John

    As Far as I am aware it still exists with Ireland the eligibility/Franchise in State elections hasn’t anything to do with the EU but you are of course correct about EU Elections.

    I suspect identifying where people are from in the event of a break up of the UK where over 20% of English have Immediate relatives who are Scottish (my Mothers a Scot) and an even Higher percentage the other way (Including Alex Salmond English Grandparents) make trying to establish Nationality a bit of a mine field.

  35. No, Colin, you do what you like. I neither like it, nor ‘not like’ it. I just said it tells us nothing. Repeating with for different dates would tell you, me, or all of us, nothing either. But the entire debate is trivial, I grant you that.

  36. @John B

    Oh I see, the argument is that Labour is stuffed with or without Scotland in the UK. But I think that overlooks an alternative to your underlying assumption that with any further Scottish devolution it would become inevitable that votes on English matters would then have to be reserved to English MPs alone, in an English parliament or whatever.

    An alternative to avoid a constitutional crisis brought on by further devolution to Scotland would be for every individual English region to be offered the choice (by referendum) of having significant powers devolved to them by Whitehall or continuing as now with voting by all UK MPs on every non-devolved issue. I suspect some would take it, some would not. And those regions that did not could hardly complain subsequently.

    Now regional government may not be on the political agenda now, for England. But neither do most of us in England feel that we’re yet in the middle of a constitutional crisis due to the prospect of further devolution to Scotland. If that constitutional crisis did become real, I’m sure that for Labour at least resurrected and devolved regional government would become a vastly more preferable option than the alternative of forming the equivalent of an English parliament with the likelihood of a Conservative majority within it.

    The only English region to have been offered this, back in the 1990s, rejected it not least because there were no real devolved powers on offer, rather powers being centralised upwards to regional government from local authorities, which in consequence campaigned strongly for the status quo. Given the experience of Scotland and Wales since, I suspect that those in several English regions would now relish being offered some real devolution of their own.

  37. @ PHil Haines etc

    The Wings Over Scotland history is all terribly interesting but the analysis ignores the last piece of history which gives a rather different interpretation:

    “2010 Coalition govt (Cameron)
    ——————————————
    Conservative majority: -38
    Without Scottish MPs: 19”

    Looks pretty clear to me: devo-max or not, Labour needs Scotland.

  38. Robert Newark

    “Luciano Berger on Daily Politics is a looker ”

    Good grief! Who says sexism is dead?

    Being a woman she is called Luciana by the way and I found her very articulate and – unlike Shapps – didn’t interrupt her opponent all the time.

    Grant did look lovely though.

  39. COLIN DAVIS

    @”I just said it tells us nothing. ”

    It told me something-a couple of things actually.

  40. @ Phil Haines

    I know little about the Welsh situation but in Scotland we have the luxury of an independent legal system. English regions certainly would not have that.

    Fiscal devolution may be a possibility, of course. Margaret Thatcher got it all wrong on that: instead of centralising power to Westminster she ought to have made each local authority entirely responsible for all its fund raising. That would have been a much more consistent approach from her.

    Maybe fiscal devolution is a possibility to English regions; but is legislative devolution at all possible?

  41. @ Phil Haines

    of course, thinking about it, the Welsh are under English law (and have been since Henry VIII of England, so the principal is already established. You just give the same powers to the English regions as have been given to Wales.

    There may be some dispute about where to draw the boundaries, of course, but I don’t see why it could not be a viable alternative to an English parliament.

  42. @ John B

    You forget perhaps that there was an attempt at English devo, thrown out comprehensively in a referendum in the North East.
    Don’t understand why, except it got all mixed up with John Prescott and general loathing of government.
    Thatch was a control freak, as are most PMs and ministers and they’ve been engaged in emasculating local government for 30+ years. For practical purposes they can’t even set the council tax (which in any case doesn’t raise much of what a council needs) any more and increasingly cannot run schools or have any influence on the NHS.
    English regional boundaries have been in place for decades so that’s not the issue, it’s the desire of Westminster to control everything.

  43. @ Colin Davis

    I don’t think other Colin was making any other point than “IF the lead has shrunk these are the likely movements by which it has shrunk” which I think is helpful.

    Sadly the actual results he gave left me none the wiser as it just seems to be a lot of background movement between don’t knows becoming do knows and vice versa. I guess this is inevitable with poll movements and you just don’t get someone who was voting Tory yesterday now deciding to vote Labour.

  44. if we accept for the purpose of discussion that more Lab 2010 identifiers and less Tory ones are now kw/wv what does it mean?

    Is it a comfort for labour that in the end they will come back or a worry that the DK part might go elsewhere?

    I guess a narrowing of the differences between ICM and YG may occur?

  45. Sorry kw should be kn

  46. @ GUYMONDE

    English regional boundaries have been a function of economic policy for a long time, but they are not political boundaries. E.g. the central southern counties (south of Birmingham) are not easy to define. And is Cambridgeshire in East Anglia?
    And if London is a ‘region’ is Kent to be lumped with Sussex and Surrey? And would Cumbria prefer to be with Lancashire or Northumberland?

    That said, you are right in pointing to control freakery. We’ve got the same danger here in Scotland, of course, where Holyrood tends to accrue more powers to itself instead of devolving to the local authorities.

  47. “she ought to have made each local authority entirely responsible for all its fund raising”

    I’m sure that this would have gone down a treat in the poorer parts of the UK.

  48. Re: Wythenshawe & Sale East

    Any reliable indicators yet?

  49. @Pups

    “Good grief! Who says sexism is dead?”

    Thanks. I wasn’t aware that “I fancy her” is sexist. I thought it was just when people used a person’s gender against them.

  50. “The Wings Over Scotland history is all terribly interesting but the analysis ignores the last piece of history which gives a rather different interpretation:
    “2010 Coalition govt (Cameron)
    ——————————————
    Conservative majority: -38
    Without Scottish MPs: 19?
    Looks pretty clear to me: devo-max or not, Labour needs Scotland.”

    Yeah, because imagine the horror if we’d ended up with a government run by Cameron and Osborne.

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