I’ve had busy day today so am playing catch up a bit with the second half of the ICM poll for the Scotsman on Sunday/Scotsman. As well as referendum voting intentions it also included European election voting intentions in Scotland. Topline figures were CON 14%, LAB 24%, LDEM 6%, SNP 43%, UKIP 7%, Green 4%.

By my reckoning that would give the SNP three MEPs (up one), Labour two (no change), the Conservatives one (no change). The Lib Dems would theirs and UKIP would still fail to breakthrough in Scotland. Tabs are here. For methodology watchers, I think this is the first time I’ve seen an ICM poll conducted online that contained voting intention figures.

Meanwhile today’s Populus poll had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8% (tabs here). Coming up later tonight we have the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy and the usual YouGov poll for the Sun.


92 Responses to “ICM poll of Scottish European voting intentions”

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  1. What is the sensational poll at 10 from Comres going to say?

    Ideas?

  2. Well I’ve got a very good idea indeed, but I ain’t telling you lot until 10pm :)

  3. I’ll start

    Lab leap to 45% and Con fall back to 27% with Ukip sniffing just behind?

    LD down to one voter in Taunton?

  4. (And before people ask, I don’t find it sensational, but then I don’t find any single voting intention poll sensational.

    Were anyone ever to make a talking Anthony Wells doll when you pulled the string it would say “remember this is only one poll, wait and see if there’s a trend”)

  5. It’s either Con in the lead or falling disastrously behind…common sense says it can only be the latter but the gradual movement has been closing the gap…

    the drum rolls and the tension mounts

    (where can we find out early..?)

  6. Conservative lead.I am becoming quite Eyoorish these days.

  7. Interesting that both Scotland and England are increasingly turning towards their respective [] nationalists in the European Parliament. Is there any indication that Plaid are similarly benefiting from this trend in Wales?

  8. @ Anthony Wells

    “Were anyone ever to make a talking Anthony Wells doll when you pulled the string it would say “remember this is only one poll, wait and see if there’s a trend”)”

    You are spoiling one of the best business ideas really. OK. We will make it recordable in our Vuhan factory. It will say whatever the buyer will want it to say.

  9. Actually, the Populous LD figure does look high (before Chris can say that).

  10. Any plans to repeat the poll about a Conservative/Ukip alliance?

  11. Statgeek and Mr Nameless,

    l left a message for you on the previous thread.

  12. ld up to 10

  13. Headline from the independent (not about the sensational one tonight!)

    “Ukip as much chance of winning European elections as finding alien life on Mars, say British public”

    Now that’s what I call proper polling :-)

  14. Re: Tonight’s ComRes. It’s got to be a Tory lead. Mr Wells’ little smiley at the end of his post is the giveaway! lol

  15. Someone one Smithsons Twitter suggested that UKIP could be above 20%, and he states that it’s a phone poll, and hence very different to an online poll – so probably not that.

    Either LDs down to tiny tiny figures, a massive Labour lead, or Tories in front would be my inclination.

  16. Lab 35
    Con 37
    LD 6
    UKIP 11

    I’ve become Eeyorish too.

  17. Assuming that the LD figure will be lower (by perhaps 5-6pp) – who will they go to? If the Tories, we may well see a lead, if to Labour, then it could be a big big lead.

    I would say it’s down to the recent LD deserters.

  18. Quick question here – assuming the parties haven’t commissioned the polls, would they have to wait until the same time as us to see them, or do they get an early viewing?

    I’m not saying that Ed and Dave are sat now glued to their computers counting down to 10 o’clock like the rest of us, but was just a little curious.

  19. The November and December Comres/Independent polls had Lab 37 Con 32. Lab generally seems to be a couple points lower than Yougovs polls, and Con about the same or a point down. Maybe due to weighting to last vote, when a lot of Lab voted LD.

    I believe their MOE is 3%, so Lab-Con being level, or a small Con lead wouldn’t actually be sensational, for AW’s mantra reasons, but you can bet the reaction to it will be. More so than the other way. So that’s my guess.

  20. If LDems desert because of the gropers and 50% tax it must be to Lab, surely? And we might seem some Lab deserters to UKIP return home too.

    Perhaps:

    Con 31
    LD 5
    Lab 43
    UKIP 10

  21. Last month’s Comres (from http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1067/independent-political-poll.htm) was:

    Lab: 37 (n/c)
    Con: 32 (n/c)
    UKIP: 10 (-1)
    LD: 9 (n/c)
    Others: 12 (+1)

  22. Comres pred

    Labour 36%
    Tories 29%
    UKIP 21%
    Lib Dem 7%

    Would this be sensational ?

  23. You would think so Nick. But you just never know with polls. Perhaps with all the negative business reaction to the 50% tax rate, it’s changed the public opinion of it?

    Obviously, empirically speaking it’s been popular, including the Mail survey on it, but maybe people have taken stock of the negative headlines?

  24. Jack R,
    So it could be just about anything then!

  25. Hucky – I’d say so. First time UKIP have crossed 20% for a non European election?

    However, Smithson seems to downplay the prospect of a high UKIP VI.

  26. Lab 29%
    Con 22%
    LD 4%
    UKIP 9%
    Monster Raving Loony 32%
    Other 4%

    SENSATIONAL!!!

  27. Election-data [email protected]_data 56m

    UKIP polled highest with ComRes. Not hard to see 20+ UKIP.

    Mike Smithson [email protected] 51m

    @election_data This is a ComRes phone poll for the Indy which is very different from the online series for IoS

    Is the crux of what he put on Twitter. Apologies if this shouldn’t be posted here.

  28. Jack R – they’ll have seen it already. ComRes send round an embargoed version to various people and if the press offices of the parties aren’t on the list themselves I’m sure someone sympathetic will tell them. The press lobby know even earlier (I assume they all tell each other and there is some degree of honour between thieves in not bleating out each others polls early!)

  29. Anthony – Thanks.

    Do you know the poll as fellow pollsters are on the ‘list’, or because you run this (a polling site)?

  30. Is anyone interested in talking at least a little bit about the polls we do have? It’s another indication that the LDs could easily get zero MEPs.

  31. I presume this is the telephone poll for the Independent which is normally at the end of the month but actually came out mid-December (and which Anthony still hasn’t put on his tables).

    According to ComRes, Labour retains the five-point lead it enjoyed in its last telephone poll for The Independent in November. Labour is on 37 per cent (no change); the Conservatives 32 per cent (no change): UKIP 10 per cent (down one point), the Liberal Democrats 9 per cent (no change) and others 12 per cent (up one point).

    Methodology: ComRes interviewed 1,003 GB adults by telephone between 13-15 December 2013.

    Others were: Green 5%, SNP 3%, PC 1%, BNP *% Other 3%.

    Given how static that poll was, I suppose any movement would be sensational.

    I’m assuming that no one is going to be daft enough compare it with the last ComRes online because of the way that UKIP oscillates between 10-ish and 18-ish in the two polls every month. Though that would at least give you a ‘sensational’ result every fortnight.

  32. LDs on minus figures for first time.

  33. Goodness knows what Comres will say. If the polls don’t start to move with all this better economic news, employment, crime, IMF re-ratings, then Conservatives are in trouble.

    Great to here the news on red tape getting hit by the coalition. All these ridiculous business laws brought in over the last 15 years are not helpful, and it is something I can speak broadly about, as my dad runs his own business, is politically reasonably neutral, and constantly says small business is over regulated. Did anybody see some of the crazier laws brought in by quangos?, etc, i.e. You need a poison licence to sell oven cleaner, laws on handling gray squirrels etc. ridiculous. Surely an advert for the worst of big govt?

  34. AW
    All the polling companies over estimated the Lib Dems at the last GE. I know you wrote about this after 2010 but I wondered if the pollsters changed their methodologies since then or was the conclusion that there was a late swing?
    Possibly the type of poll respondents who got caught up in the cleggmania bandwagon exactly the sort who were never going to vote really anyway. If a similar surge happens again, say with UKIP, how will the pollsters deal with it?

  35. It seems some people who have seen the polls are suggesting a Tory lead or they are just winding people up ?

  36. I seem to remember one of the other “shocking polls” suggested a Tory lead and ended up a 9-point Labour one. We simply don’t know.

  37. When Mike Smithson tweets, it’s usually good news for Labour I have found in the past. Popularity of the 50p tax rate announcement?

    Maybe 8-12 point Labour lead?

  38. Given there are two polls tonight, for one to be sensational I would at least insist that the other should be trending in the same direction otherwise, sorry, it’s just a big yawn and we’ll be waiting several more days for useful confirmation.

  39. AW

    @”Were anyone ever to make a talking Anthony Wells doll when you pulled the string it would say “remember this is only one poll, wait and see if there’s a trend”)

    ….followed by “Stop it you lot-jeez ! ”

    …well you’d have to imagine the exclamation mark.

  40. I don’t think Smithson is particularly pro-Lab.

    It’s telling that we can’t make any sort of confident prediction!

  41. Someone has suggested the poll boasts something we haven’t seen since Sept 10 – which was the last time ComRes/Independent phone poll showed a Conservative lead.

  42. LDs in the lead?

  43. @NickP,

    He’s turned very anti-Tory and more pro Labour since 2010. Probably fed up with being in coalition with the Tories.

  44. Would a Tory lead be sensational?

    Whatever the poll says, if Yougov has 32/38/10/11 then it is probably just fluctuation!

  45. I have to say I love political betting and reading his tweets when I get the time. great for betting info and advice.

  46. Good Evening All, after a very long day in school and then teaching evening class.
    Exciting night ahead.

  47. chris

    Can’t remember if I asked before..did you have a Bell in your year (at Holy Jo’s)?

  48. Then again…AW seems quite chirpy tonight…maybe it is a good poll for the Tories?

  49. Funny thing is, despite knowing that if it is a “sensational” result it is almost certainly MOE, given the other recent polls are all showing business as usual, I still find myself looking forward to hearing what it is. Maybe I’m just bored of seeing every poll saying the same thing.

  50. Nick – It would be the first time in just under 3.5 years – I would say so.

    Of course, as Anthony says above, no matter what ‘sensational’ VI we see in half an hour, it’s one poll, by one company. Taking a view of the daily YG polls in terms of medium term movement is my view, and then to see if the other, less regular polls concur with that.

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