I’ve had busy day today so am playing catch up a bit with the second half of the ICM poll for the Scotsman on Sunday/Scotsman. As well as referendum voting intentions it also included European election voting intentions in Scotland. Topline figures were CON 14%, LAB 24%, LDEM 6%, SNP 43%, UKIP 7%, Green 4%.

By my reckoning that would give the SNP three MEPs (up one), Labour two (no change), the Conservatives one (no change). The Lib Dems would theirs and UKIP would still fail to breakthrough in Scotland. Tabs are here. For methodology watchers, I think this is the first time I’ve seen an ICM poll conducted online that contained voting intention figures.

Meanwhile today’s Populus poll had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8% (tabs here). Coming up later tonight we have the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy and the usual YouGov poll for the Sun.


92 Responses to “ICM poll of Scottish European voting intentions”

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  1. There’s many things that could be sensational, but should it not be something at least plausible given recent events, particularly those covered in the media?

    Given that, it ought to be something LD-related, they don’t seem to fly up these days often so a (temporary?) collapse seems possible. Or maybe UKIP doing something unusual?

    Oh, I want one of those Anthony Wells dolls! Are they on Amazon?

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  2. cl1945

    “Exciting night ahead.”

    Why, what’s happening? There’s no footy.

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  3. ROSIEAND DASIE.
    United buying Mata is exciting; more to come.

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  4. Mike Smithson ?@MSmithsonPB 4m

    As a general rule sensational polls turn out to be outliers. In 2013 3 pollsters had LAB & CON level-pegging before returning “normal”

    ——————–

    This suggests to me that a tory lead is likely.

    (Gawd, I really hate writing stuff like that….)

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  5. @ChrisLane

    Mata !!

    I told my hubby that I would have Mata in a heartbeat when it became obvious that Moaninho didn’t like him but never did I expect to get him.

    The last time I felt as excited about one of the numerous players Utd get associated with was during the RVP transfer.

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  6. @Chirdata,

    It does. One poll does not make a trend..even 2 or 3 don’t necessarily. Like weird polls though.

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  7. Where will the Comres sensation appear at 10?

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  8. I’d concur with your Comres logic Chordata. And you Mata logic, although 37m, is a desperation price. Any money says you could get him for 20m in the summer. Truth is, Man Utd taking 17m gamble that Mata gets them 4th and/or persuades Rooney to sign.

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  9. “I told my hubby that I would have Mata in a heartbeat”

    This is NOT a swingers’ forum.

    We are appalled.

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  10. @Chordata – If it really were a Con lead, then Smithson’s tweet would be uncomfortably close to breaking embargo, which I don’t think he’d do.

    So that suggests it’s not a Tory lead!

    Or we could talk about the interesting results that Anthony posted about Scotland? Anyone?

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  11. ONS Q4 2013 GDP tomorrow :-

    Tuesday’s Daily Telegraph front page – “Economy is growing at fastest pace since crash”.

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  12. @Jack

    Yeah but in return Utd get a damn fine player in Mata, a re- energised squad, persuades Rooney to sign 4/5 yr deal by which time he will have past his best & 4th place is more likely so a price worth paying imo.

    @R&D

    LOL

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  13. You Gov 2% Lab lead

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  14. Mike Smithson ?@MSmithsonPB 19s

    YouGov/Sun sees LAB lead down to 2

    CON 35%
    LAB 37
    LD 9%
    UKIP 13%

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  15. could be Tory lead:

    Sun Politics ?@Sun_Politics 2m
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead drops to just two points: CON 35%, LAB 37%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%

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  16. YouGov/Sun sees LAB lead down to 2 CON 35% LAB 37 LD 9% UKIP 13%

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  17. Comres shows 1 pt labour lead.

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  18. Lab lead down to 1 is the sensation.

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  19. 1 pt comres

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  20. Com Res 1% Lab lead

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  21. Comres

    Lab 33% -4 Con 32% UKIP 14% +4 Lib Dem 9%

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  22. However, since the LD figure is clearly high, due to systemic error in the samples, the Cons are ahead really.
    IMHO

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  23. ComRes

    Lab 33
    Con 32
    Ukip 14
    LD 9

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  24. Thankyou.

    Once is enough…. my memory’s not that bleedin’ bad.

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  25. 33/32/9/14

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  26. Well wasn’t that exciting…

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  27. Is it a mighty fine co-incidence that YG shows a Lab lead at it’s lower end (I know there have been some 3s recently), the same night as we get this?

    Or has the 50% tax rate just exploded in Miliballs face?

    As an aside – are UKIP pro or anti 50% tax rate?

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  28. Well that was a nice end to the day-ONS GDP tomorrow.

    DC tucked up in bed reading this :-

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/27/how-tories-can-win-next-election/

    Wait for it all to unwind next week when the 50p bounce bounces.

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  29. @Colin,

    Lovely stuff.

    Fully deserved too since we are outpacing virtually all of continental Europe in terms of growth and employment.

    rich

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  30. “Were anyone ever to make a talking Anthony Wells doll when you pulled the string it would say “remember this is only one poll, wait and see if there’s a trend”)”

    (no) Re-action man?

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  31. Hmm, interesting. Definitely not polldrums.

    I am a little surprised actually. I thought Ed Balls has been performing pretty well over the deficit plan/50p tax rate push.

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  32. Cheers Ewen. Positive thinking. Cyber warriors aren’t worth it.

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  33. The silence when there’s a favourable Tory poll makes us smile ….. oh, hang on,we’ve done that.

    Don’t believe it is the start of a trend but we’re oany littul puppies.

    Well, to be fair, owr Rose is a big little pup.

    Daisie.

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  34. Last time Labour was on 35% with YouGov… July 2010.

    Either a freak, or Labour’s VI is dangerously vulnerable to a short-term media assault.

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  35. I am starting to sniff (don’t usually like that word) some real hope for the Conservatives. Especially if the economy and employment keep improving. Could be a very interesting election at this rate.

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  36. BILLY BOB
    Last time Labour was on 35% with YouGov… July 2010.
    Either a freak, or Labour’s VI is dangerously vulnerable to a short-term media assault.
    ……………

    or vulnerable to improving economic and employment data……

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  37. “Last time Labour was on 35% with YouGov… July 2010.”

    Forget that.

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  38. As two polls seem to show a similar narrowing of the Labour lead, it could be a real movement even if it turns out to be short-lived. Interesting that the Tories share hasn’t gone up, just a hit on Labour. It almost looks like UKIP gaining Lab votes. What could have caused that? Surely not Joe Public being aware of the wrecking of the Referendum Bill in the Lords?

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  39. Referring back to my earlier post about Cons high bottom/low top [which grew an utterly disgraceful double entre, naughty innuendo from Howard - who should be banned] its notable that they are, in these “sensational” polls, at 35% and 32%, showing off their low top..

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  40. New fred

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  41. Re the debate on how the media report polls if I can put a slightly different point of view. If as an editor you have the choice of reporting a poll as no change in the last 19 polls you will not report it because it is now news. However if a poll comes along that shows a dramatic switch and you can report a four point swing to x,y or z of course you will report it as news it is (to some) exciting and for the tv or newspaper just to easy to fill a small gap

    Re polls the last 5 you gov polls have shown labour leading by 4,8,3,7,2 so will tonight be 6? It is labours turn for a higher lead.

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