This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. The four point lead is slightly lower than YouGov have been showing of late, but there was equally an eight point lead yesterday and both are entirely in line with an underlying average lead of around about six points. Tabs are here.

For the Times YouGov also asked the first recent questions about Lord Rennard and his future. 41% of people think he should leave the Liberal Democrats as he is damaging the party, 33% think he should remain as no wrongdoing has actually been proven. There is a noticiable difference between male and female respondents – men are almost evenly split, 40% think Rennard should stay, 39% think he should go. Amongst women 43% think Rennard should go, only 27% think he should stay.

As a caveat, YouGov also asked whether or not people were paying any attention to the Rennard story. Only 6% of people said they were following it closely, 30% said fairly closely, 25% not very closely, 39% that they were not following the story at all or were totally unaware of it. Generally speaking this should be a Westminster bubble story – it’s about a disciplinary procedure against a backroom figure most of the public have never heard of, in normal terms it should be the sort of thing that only the most politically minded notice and which is rapidly forgotten by next week. However, the fact that it is dragging on and on does increase the possibility of “normal” people noticing.


779 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 34, LAB 38, LD 9, UKIP 13”

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  1. @Colin
    “If it is supposed to appeal to core supporters-I don’t get it…”

    Rest assured, it appeals to me. I think you’re right on the distinction between current spending and investment.

    Re the 50p rate, what does surprise me is that the Lib Dems (well, Alexander at least, and I assume he speaks for the party) have come out so strongly against it. It’s differentiating Labour from the LDs as well as the Conservatives.

  2. The BBC news channel is misreporting the announcement of Labour about tax. The announcer said (and they all do) that it is about incomes above £150000, whereas I am sure all on here know that the issue is about taxable income over that amount.

    Incidentally, the non-availability of the personal allowance above an ‘adjusted’ income of £120,000 (and its reduction by £1 for every £2 above £100000), I assume was a measure of the last throw of the Labour Government as it was introduced in April 2010. This gives a marginal rate of tax between £100,000 and £120,000 of 60%.

    One does not hear that mentioned often either. It probably affects far more people than the people above £120,000, I would imagine. There are what we used to call chief clerks in local authorities who earn that nowadays.

    By the way, where I come from ‘clerk’ is pronounced as ‘clirk’.

  3. Anthony,

    Even more intriguing…

  4. Its in the nooks and crannies one looks for the key stuff.

    This from Labour List :-

    “At Fabian Conference this afternoon, Shadow London Minister Sadiq Khan praised plans for a rent cap and suggested that it’s something he’d support Labour doing. As well as being in the Shadow Cabinet, Khan is close to Ed Miliband – he ran his 2010 leadership campaign.

    Rent controls aren’t currently Labour policy – but it’s unlikely Khan would have endorsed this without speaking to Miliband first.”

    Well I have certainly been clocking EM’s interventionist agenda as it develops ( as has UKplc)

    But Rent Controls?-that would be a whole new ball game .

  5. Colin

    That same article on Labourlist also says:

    Update: Quick as a flash, Shadow Housing Minister Emma Reynolds tweets to say that rent capping is NOT Labour policy. So it seems Khan has been off script here.

  6. @Bantams

    According to Snopes, Shirley Williams said that Blair told her Bush had said it.

    Alastair Campbell denies that Blair had told her any such thing.

    Make what you will of that!

    (My conclusion is that Bush did say it, but perhaps that’s just wishful thinking)

  7. Burns Night,
    I hope all true Scots are celebrating this .My husband has just eaten haggis,neaps and Tatties washed down with a few glasss of Jura.We of course
    Have eaten something rather rather more pleasant.He also said not every day
    Please.

  8. Also,,
    Great reservations about the abilities of Sadiq Khan.

  9. I know Rasie and Daisie hates this,
    But,A new First Lady en France.

  10. @Phil Haines:

    The LibDems opposed the decision to cut the 50p rate. Perhaps Alexander has gone native.

    “Senior Lib Dems want Nick Clegg to promise a return to 50p top rate”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/senior-lib-dems-want-nick-clegg-to-promise-a-return-to-50p-top-rate-8562678.html

    Re. Ball’s deficit promise, I think it’s quite a smart proposal – balance the books on day-to-day I & E but allow additional borrowing for investment projects.

  11. “I know Rasie and Daisie hates this,
    But,A new First Lady en France.”

    Owr rOsie might be slightly on the violent side but calling her rasie is going too far.

    Plus isn’t she – au moins – a second lady?

    Plus we don’t hate it.

    Otherwise – spot on.

  12. “Great reservations about the abilities of Sadiq Khan.”

    Ditto.

  13. Rosie and Daisie,
    Beg Pardon,Desolee,wanted to put an accent but battling with the I pad which
    Keeps altering everything I say.Glad you don’t hate it.

  14. I reckon tomorrows ST YG poll will show the Lib Dems at a record low.

    Pred.

    Labour 40%
    Tories 34%
    UKIP 15%
    LD 6%

    This be met by a response from Chris Lane that the Lib Dem figure looks a bit high.

  15. Colin,
    Yep EB just saying same as GO only slower, although there may be differences on the level of investment too I guess.

    This was always going to be Lab policy at the GE since the GO added 2-3 years to his original plans so no big deal.

    BTW – Re FTSE100 CEOs and others criticism and trying to create a wedge with CU and EB on one side and EM on the other raised by you a day or 2 ago.

    My MP said today that the PLP recognises that this is a challenge that would have to be met but that it was largely a myth and actually the PLP view was mainly positive in that it shows some Tory supporting business leaders are taking the prospect of a Lab led Government seriously perhaps for the first time.

  16. Prediction time? Lab 39 con 32 lib 9 Ukip 13

  17. Good Evening All. Cold here. Nice time at afc b v Liverpool.

    R HUCKLE.
    I think that your estimate of the Lib Dem support in the new poll seems rather high. IMO as they say.

  18. @Roger H

    Interesting. Having researched it a bit more I also found a Lib Dem Voice poll that had Lib Dem members, no less, backing a return to the 50% tax rate by 56% to 35%, even though nothing to tie the leadership down happened at their conference last year.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/our-survey-says-lib-dems-want-a-50p-toprate-of-tax-but-will-they-vote-for-it-at-conference-36256.html

  19. ROsie & Daisy
    “Them froggies don’t even have a word for entrepreneur.”

    Tis incorrect I’m afraid. It is a French word in origin

  20. Robert Newark

    I think you will find the doggies knew that already……have you never come across dogs with a sense of humour before?

  21. Actually the UKIP figure seems a little high. But there seems there might be a slow upward trend for UKIP in recent times, so it’s not impossible for 15% to appear occasionally. I’d be unwilling to assume this is a straight transfer LD to UKIP. That does not seem quite natural.

    Goodness knows what voters will make of EB’s economic posturing (it’s not much more than that this far out). I gather there’s still some souls who don’t know the difference between national debt and budget deficit, so perhaps the message is not really meant for them.

    It really ought not to happen that a finance spokesman talks tough on the economy whilst out of power, and then automatically he/she gets a reputation for being almost an “Iron Chancellor” without ever really doing anything. But it seems to happen quite regularly, it helps if you’ve been out of power for a long time, and this sort of message is safest from attack, although some of us would like to know how all this is to be achieved.

    Probably it is useful for the Conservatives to have what appears to be a properly Socialist government in France, where things are not really going very well to put it mildly. I can just imagine the warning messages
    pointing at this and suggesting that something similar will befall us if we elect a similar-ish government.

  22. Digging further still, the Lib Dem conference failed to overturn the leadership’s position on this by just 4 votes last year.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dems-reject-50p-toprate-of-tax-by-just-4-votes-224-to-220-36258.html

    This does strike me as the sort of thing that could yet accentuate the shift of many 2010 Lib Dems into Labour’s camp, if the Lib Dem policy becomes more widely known. (Speaking as someone who wasn’t aware of it until Alexander’s statement today.)

  23. b Crombie

    I think a “Blimey !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” is called for.

  24. R&D

    indeed……

  25. Yes, indeed we have one, it was she who told me. She is French you see.

  26. @ Robert Newark

    I think you might be just a tad behind the laffer curve!

  27. Will this evening never end Now having to watch Braveheart for the umpteenth
    Time.May the polls tomorrow be to everyone’s satisfaction.

  28. Freedom

  29. A I W.
    Come to Bournemouth then

  30. ann

    “Now having to watch Braveheart for the umpteenth
    Time.”

    1/ You can turn tellies OFF

    2/ You can leave the room – or, to be even safer, Wales.

    I watch NO tv.

    The very little I watch is online – even the footy.

  31. @Ann in Wales

    You’ve had the ipad how long?

    Whether it’s a battle or a collaboration, the result always sounds like an englyn of some kind.

  32. Arguments about tax should take note of this story – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25884915

    On spending, I’m much more in tune with some of the right wing thinking than some on the left, as I believe absolutely fervently that if you forcibly take people’s money from them, for the wider benefit of society, you have a moral duty to get maximum benefit from that money. Indeed, because you have forcibly seized that money, your obligation goes way beyond the obligations on private traders, with which consumers deal with on a voluntary basis.

    I metaphorically weep when I read stories like this, where a government procurement officer is complaining about the behaviour of private sector suppliers. They’re [email protected], and clearly run their businesses in a way I would never dream of doing, but don’t blame them. It’s the useless procurement officers who sign the contracts.

    You might get ripped off once – but only once. You never trade with that outfit again. Quite why government hasn’t cottoned on to their immense bargaining power is completely beyond me, and remains one of the great moral failings of our time.

    The quid pro quo for all these stories of overpriced contracts, there are people who are seeing their benefits restricted, their pay frozen or their services reduced. That’s the really immoral bit.

  33. JIMJAM

    Thanks.

    I am sure they take it seriously. That seems very clear.

    Knowing your objective approach to these matters you might be interested in this :-

    “Lord Myners, who served as City minister in Gordon Brown’s government, attacked the policy, saying it would take the party back to the days of “old Labour”.

    “The economic logic behind his [Mr Balls’s] thinking would not get him a pass at GCSE economics,” he said. … “Ed Balls takes us back to old Labour and the politics of envy.”

    Myners is talking about EB’s proposal on 50p top rate income tax.

  34. BB

    I’ve written one of them in English:

    “Daffodils are luvly see?

    Luvly, luvly, luvly my boyo.”

    Sounds better in Cornish to be fair.

  35. “Myners is talking about EB’s proposal on 50p top rate income tax.”

    Gosh: if he doesn’t approve then Ed Balls is in deep trub.

  36. I’ve just watched several commentators on the media taking a pretty critical stance about Balls’s 50p tax proposal.

    But I suspect that many are personally affected, hence the outrage.

    Where might they end up once they become tax exiles?

    You stay classy, San Diego.

  37. PH

    Cynic.

  38. @Alec

    I’m a bit cynical about somebody who came from Accenture (and will probably end up back there) making these statements.
    Anyway, what’s he been doing as commercial director at the Home Office?

    There has certainly been (and still is, I think) an appetite for buying from big names (including the likes of Accenture) for a mixture of reasons – the old IT one of ‘nobody ever got fired for buying from IBM’; the prospects of employment post-government and post civil-service; intense schmoozing including infiltrating government with ‘free’ consultants; and just general ministerial macho.
    I don’t think it has a lot to do with not cottoning on; it has more to do with the establishment being comfortable with the establishment but I agree it amounts to a dereliction of duty and a failure of rigour and courage.

    To be fair, I think Maude has genuinely been trying to change the culture and my mate who works for a major software house as a salesman is dejected that his £27M sales last year and £28M target this year (not in the Cabinet Office) is currently at £400K with 2 months to go and not much on the horizon.

  39. “The economic logic behind his thinking would not get him a pass at GCSE economics,”

    Says Lord Myners of thickie, Ed Balls.

    Ed’s qualifications below and, to be fair, he doesn’t seem to have the requisite GCSE, just as the good Lord opined.

    “…….. attended Keble College, Oxford, where he gained a First in Philosophy, Politics and Economics, graduating ahead of David Cameron. Later he attended the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard, where he was a Kennedy Scholar specialising in Economics.”

  40. “Daffodils are luvly see?

    Luvly, luvly, luvly my boyo.”

    Didn’t know Neil Kinnock had turned his hand to poetry.

  41. @JimJam

    “….some Tory supporting business leaders are taking the prospect of a Lab led Government seriously perhaps for the first time.”

    So are the financial markets, apparently, if you look at the recent share price drops of some of the banks in reaction to Miliband’s proposals to restructure the banking system. If they thought he was a joker who would never get into power there would have beeen no effect on the share price. The fact that the markets moved so significantly suggests that they take the prospect of a Miliband win in 2015 fairly seriously.

    @Alec

    “Indeed, because you have forcibly seized that money, ”

    A rather extreme definition of taxation, I would contend. Literally correct, I guess, in the sense that we have little choice but to pay, but I see taxation in a much more positive light. It’s my membership fee for belonging to a civilised society.

  42. It’s nearly finished.Thank God.

  43. “Ed Balls takes us back to old Labour and the politics of envy.”

    The “politics of envy” is the silliest of the cant phrases used in modern politics. Most people don’t wish to be “rich” — but comfortable & secure. Any redistributive policy can & is be described in this way, to confuse & indeed prevent any rational debate about what the level of redistribution should be.

  44. Robbie

    Totally agree.

  45. Just thinking… if Ed Balls is brave enough to go through the grade exams on piano maybe he should fill in that gap in his education with a GCSE in Economics.

    Be great if he passed… that ‘ud show the noble Lord.

  46. rosieanddaisie “…….. attended Keble College, Oxford, where he gained a First in Philosophy, Politics and Economics, graduating ahead of David Cameron. Later he attended the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard, where he was a Kennedy Scholar specialising in Economics.”

    Any chance you could put up G O cv

  47. CrossBat
    You nicked that line about civilised society entry fee from somebody ,some yank I think?

  48. Rog.

    George Osborne

    “He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford, where he received a 2:1 bachelor’s degree in Modern History. He was a member of the Bullingdon Club.

    He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.

    After graduating in 1992, Osborne did a few part-time jobs including as a data entry clerk”

    All good stuff and though it doesn’t mention his GCSEs I expect he got a pass at economics.

  49. “He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.”

    I used to be a Farley’s Rusk scholar – dunno which is most prestigious.

    Anyway, it just says he attended for a term so he probably didn’t actually do anything.

  50. Modern History is a bit of a doddle too: you just need to remember recent events – no reading required.

    I’m not sure that he’s as clever as I first thought.

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