The monthly online ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight (ComRes have two monthly polls, the other is a phone poll for the Indy – the two different methods tend to produce slightly different results). Topline figures with changes from December’s online poll are CON 30%(+1), LAB 35%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 19%(+1).

ComRes also asked if people had favourable perceptions of each party and their leader. We get the usual pattern for the Tories and Labour: David Cameron is seen more favourably than his party (27% are favourable towards Cameron, 48% unfavourable – a net rating of minus 21 compared to the Conservative party’s minus 25), Ed Miliband is seen less favourably than his party (a net rating of minus 31 compared to his party’s minus 19). Cameron is seen more favourably than Miliband, Labour are seen more favourably than the Tories.

So far nothing new. The interesting findings are UKIP. There is an assumption that UKIP are a bit like marmite – love em or hate em. Their supporters are very positive (and vocal) but are vastly outnumbered by detractors. The ComRes results however paint a more positive picture for UKIP – 27% had a positive opinion of the party (so marginally higher than Labour (26%) and the Tories (25%)). Only 38% had a negative opinion though, which was significantly lower than the Conservatives or Labour, giving them the most positive net figure. The other interesting finding was that Nigel Farage polled significantly less positively than his party – a net rating of minus 18, compared to minus 11 for UKIP.

We should also have an Opinium poll tonight in the Observer, and tomorrow morning the weekly YouGov poll in the Sunday Times.

UPDATE: Opinium figures in the Observer are CON 30%(nc), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 17%(nc)


99 Responses to “ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 30, LAB 35, LD 8, UKIP 19”

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  1. All party leaders still have approval ratings several miles underwater.

  2. Wonder if the polls will be like this until the election. It seems to be MOE for quite a long time….not that I am complaining if the results ends up with what the average is at the moment ;-)

  3. Can’t help but think it’s easier for a particular party to be favourably regarded if it has never got near the levers of power, and thus has to share the blame for any current problems. LDs have done this for the first time in a long time, and we can see what happened.

  4. “ComRes results however paint a more positive picture for UKIP… giving them the most positive net figure.”

    Tories could perhaps best neutralise them by agreeing the pact that Farage is angling for? Lol.

  5. Meanwhile Bridget Harris is causing waves for Nick Clegg.This was swept under the carpet before Eastleigh but now has to be answered

  6. @ Billy Bob

    I didn’t think Farage was interested in any pact with the Tory party. He did say that UKIP may work with some Tory MP’s/Candidates, but said that they may work with some from Labour as well.

    You would think that the Tories and UKIP would work together. However, there was some polling at the end of last year, which showing a much larger Labour lead if this were to happen.

  7. With UKIP under FPTP it’s as if a lot of votes basically vanish without any effect on seats, at least for the moment, and until they reach a tipping point whereupon they will suddenly get quite a few seats… if they ever get there. 19% seems quite high for them, possibly near their maximum?

    Despite these lost votes having no effect on seats, they are causing some discomfort among the two largest parties. No doubt they would like them back. I don’t know if a deal is possible, it will probably depend on the leadership.

  8. Yes I can see some reaction in the Labour VI to a UKIP-Cons deal of some sort. It may happen anyway nearer the election, assuming there are some votes trickling back without any deal. We can’t really expect voters on the right to exactly like EM nor wish to hand him the keys to no 10 so it’s possible there will be something resembling tactical voting going on there. I can see the Labour vote firming up in response. All that opinion polling does have some effect, I’m sure.

  9. @R Huckle

    That was meant as a joke, I mean, look what happened to LD when they started consorting with the Conservatives.

    Some polling? One poll that I know of, released on the eve of the Tory conference. IIRC the larger Labour lead was due to the significant increase in Con/UKIP “don’t knows” (almost zero Lab or LD don’t knows) when given a VI choice between Con/UKIP Alliance, Labour and Lib Dem… which imo translates to “this is news to us”.

  10. Opinum poll is being spun by the Grauniad in its usual anti-Ed Miliband way as “blow to Labour as one in 3 voters trust Cameron and Osborne to run the economy”
    This would be the same one in 3 voters who are essentially the Tories support base – and when you read the small print, the real winners, as always, are the “none of the above”!

  11. Are these UKIP results so very surprising – the party is to some extent the empty vessel into which the many can as yet pour their very different hopes…

  12. I see there is some old buffer, a UKIP councillor from Henley-on-Thames, who thinks that the recent floods are God’s revenge for Cameron’s decision to legalise Gay Marriage.

    UKIP member, white middle class bloke in his sixties, Henley on Thames, divine retribution? This isn’t a Private Eye spoof, is it? lol

  13. @CROSSBAT

    Yes I spotted the old buffer.
    Someone on my neighbourhood forum comments:

    “Fruitcake/former Tory. You decide the best description for this vile man.”

    Is it too much to hope that these loonies coming out of the woodwork will affect people’s perception of the kippers (I mean negatively, for the avoidance of doubt!)

  14. Conundrum for the Tories is how to remain in power after the general election. Can they get an OM? If not, can they rely on LDs getting enough seats, and on an LD leadership prepared to continue the coalition?

    An overt pact with UKIP would probably back-fire, and if it were to suceed UKIP’s influence would increase to such an extent that the current leadership would hardly survive.

    There may well be that same rightwards realignment of the Conservative party anyway if they lose the election.

    Would Cameron really expel any Tory MP who entered into a ill-defined local pact in the weeks before a general election?

  15. Paul A – Apparently, a six percent lead is a “poll blow for Labour”.

  16. ComRes have the midlands as UKIP’s strongest region.

    35% favourable in West Mids
    30% favourable in East Mids (p.56)

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_19_January_2014.pdf

  17. Billy Bob wrote “There may well be that same rightwards realignment of the Conservative party anyway if they lose the election.”

    If so, bonkers, because it was only Cameron’s re-branding as a modern eco-NHS friendly party that got them out of the dolldrums of 1997 to 2005. When will the Tories realise that American style neo-liberalism makes them totally unelectable in Britain?

    Re UKIP. Any talk of a deal between them and Tories is Pie-in-the-sky stuff. The Tory Party does not do electoral deals, it isn’t in their DNA. IMO UKIP will probaby soar for the Euros, then melt away in the run-up to 2015. I would be astonished if they polled more than 4% in the GE. Their effect thus negligible. This UKIP thing is like any Third Party Surge in the days before the LDs became a semi-major party based on their local government base. Just remember the “hot air” Liberal surge under Thorpe, it was hollow and it had no long term substance – the current UKIP surge is the same.

  18. Tony Dean

    Yes, but “Cameron’s re-branding” was just that.

    It didn’t change the fact that the large 2010 intake has made the party very different to that in say, Thatcher’s time when there were so many “wets”, or Major’s time when there were so few “persons of indeterminate parentage”.

  19. Tony Dean,

    They did an electoral deal with the DUP in 2010 in NI; various local pacts with the Liberals in the postwar period; and a formal relationship of increasing closeness (and eventual absorbtion) with the National Liberals.

  20. Crossbat,
    Well here in Wales the 40 days and nights are pretty much a reality,so perhaps
    The old buffer is on to something.Do you know a builders merchant where we
    Can buy 30 cubits of gopher wood.LOL.

  21. Any chance of recognising the existence of UKIP, Opinium and Survation in the “Poll Graphs” section of the website?

  22. Paul A,
    Read the comments section of the poll. No one is being taken in by this.

  23. @ Billy Bob

    I agree with you. Cameron’s effort was just re-branding without any change in substance.

    With regard to the 2010 intake I also agree. The Conservative Parliamentery Party is closer to the American Republican Party than it has ever been. However, as this fact becomes more apparent, so does it become harder and harder for the Tory party to build an electoral base which delivers them a win.

    I believe the fundamental reason for this is that Britain is to its core conservative with a small c, and thus old-fashioned middle-of-the-road pre-Thatcher conservatism used to win elections easily in the mid to late 20th century. However, British society is too socially inter-locked historically to be drawn to a type of freebooting ne0-liberal conservatism that appeals to a pioneer people like the Americans. That type of conservatism appeals strongly to the social group in Britain that might be described as the Artisan-strivers and their now well-educated offspring (the 2010 intake types?) – however, over decades it gradually loses the traditional Tory base of the old intelligentsia and professions to parties of the Centre or Left as the “cruelty” in the nature of the effects of neo-liberal laissez-faire are just socially unacceptable to the “liberal conscience” of the old British middle classes.

  24. @Paul A, @Red Rag

    I suppose that Guardian readers who also buy the Observer may themselves come to question the spin, in the knowledge that the Lab lead has doubled since the last GE poll they were told about.

    And in the very final line of the report there is also a perfunctory sentence which may sow further confusion
    “The Liberal Democrats remain at 8%.”

  25. Think my screen needs readjusting lefties are attacking the Guardian now??? What next? Colin slamming the Telegraph???

    I agree with the hive on here that UKIP will melt away in 2015, but it’s a bit of a stretch to say they will drop from the mid teens to their 2010 levels of around 3-4% for no other reason than election time. I think 8% is more on the money.

    Again we see the Labour lead narrowing. Those good job numbers and the improving must have the 2 Ed’s in tears. I think they’d admit they were wrong on the economy that net loss of 1 million jobs failed to materialise in fact we got the reverse, and we’re now one of the fastest growing economies in the west (so much for flatlining) so barring any unforseen scandal I expect to see that Labour lead narrow further in the upcoming months, and who knows maybe even further if impartial sources such as the Bank of England continue to shine the light on Labour’s policies.

    I still don’t think we’re heading towards a Con majority, but I think even if Labour get the most seats, if they fail to get a majority the coalition can continue, especially as more Lib Dems now say they prefer the tories.

  26. “All party leaders still have approval ratings several miles underwater.”

    That’s because they’re all politicians.

  27. @ Bill Patrick

    You are absolutely right Bill. However, these were all “odd” cases. NI is something else – the Tory Party has traditionally never stood there – nor Labour. It is a sort of off-stage political vacuum if talking about contests between mainstream British political parties.
    The electoral deal with the Liberals in Bolton was at a time when the Conservatives were looking to absorb the old Liberal Party in the early 1950s – plus the Liberal candidate was a close personal chum of Winston! It was not a nationwide deal between parties. The absorbtion of the Liberal Nationals/National Liberals was as a result of a Liberla split and a coalition merger.

    I grant that the Conservative Party has a history of amalgamating with others – Liberal Unionists (1912), then National Liberals (1947) – however , their is no history of the Tory Party stepping down to allow other parties to take on Labour with no Conservative in the field in te constituency for voters to vote for – this would really go against the grain for the Conservative Party.

  28. @Tony Dean

    UKIP managed 3% in 2010 without contesting every seat.

    If we take the effect of Liberal surges in GEs as a precedent, Grimond added 5% between successive GEs 1959-1964. Thorpe added 12% between 1970-1974.

    Surely UKIP are going to increase their 2010 vote share by more than 1%?

  29. @AIW

    “Do you know a builders merchant where we
    Can buy 30 cubits of gopher wood.LOL.”

    ‘Three ha’pence a foot answered Sam’

    I’ll be interested to see if anyone gets that reference :-)

  30. @ Phil Haines

    Phil, you may very well be right – perhaps my 4% is a bit low on reflection. However, after using UKIP to deliver a message in the Euros, I reckon the Tory press will take them apart afterwards if their support doesn’t look like slipping away quickly enough for GE 2015. It would only take a few “relentless pursuit” stories about obscure UKIP cllrs making gaffs to demolish them completely. The Tory press are good at that!

  31. Tony Dean,

    “I grant that the Conservative Party has a history of amalgamating with others – Liberal Unionists (1912), then National Liberals (1947) – however , their is no history of the Tory Party stepping down to allow other parties to take on Labour with no Conservative in the field in te constituency for voters to vote for – this would really go against the grain for the Conservative Party.”

    There have been quite a few cases of this in Great Britain, e.g. in the Western Isles in the 1950s, Greenock in 1950, and of course in a lot of cases in 1931. In fact, the Tories stood aside for National Labour candidates in 1931!

    However, your basic point is correct: there is no historical precedent for something like a Tory-UKIP pact, and it would probably alienate more people (both anti-UKIP Tories and anti-Tory UKIPpers) than it would win over to either party. And it’s in neither party’s long-term interest to help out the other. And the practicalities of it would be a nightmare, just as Labour’s attempt to co-opt the Lib Dems in the 1990s turned into a nightmare.

  32. @GuyMonde

    “Is it too much to hope that these loonies coming out of the woodwork will affect people’s perception of the kippers (I mean negatively, for the avoidance of doubt!)”

    These “loonies” are essentially the UK version of the Tea Party Tendency, alienated from the modern Tory Party, socially ultra-conservative and in open revolt against modern society. Albeit a minority, they do make up a surprisingly sizeable component of what you might call the natural Conservative vote. They define Cameron’s unsolvable dilemma and the spit on which he and his party are gently roasting. To regain these alienated voters for his party, he’d have to lurch further rightwards, thereby losing more of his 2010 conquest centrist voters. So where does he go to increase his currently inert and stagnant support? He makes to the centre and then sheds more of his remaining ultra-conservative support, now finding an ever more comfortable alternative abode in UKIP.

    As I’ve said many times before, he really is in a most horrible pickle.

    Meanwhile, rather like that villainous character in the Bond films, Miliband sits in a comfortable armchair gently stroking a furry cat who’s smiling features, and rhythmic purrs, look and sound like an ensemble of former Lib Dem voters.

    Pass me that Ming Vase for I am about to carry it over a polished floor.

    lol

  33. Two polls out and the combined Lib/Dem VI = 16%

    Not forgetting the possibility that they could be totally wiped out in the European elections all I can say is

    UH OH.

  34. crossbat11 – Your comment has just struck me as to what the dilemma is in British centre-right politics:

    We have the Tory party whose MPs are largely “socially permissive, but economically conservative”

    whereas the polls of their and UKIP supporters shows a majority “socially conservative, but economically more left-wing”

    Owen Jones’s article in the i newspaper gave astonsihing figures as to how many UKIP and Tory voters want the return of nationalised railways and power supplies, non-competitive internal NHS etc. etc.

    This must be a nightmare of contradictions for the Tory MP cohort committed to neo-liberalism?

    How do you square that?

  35. CROSSBAT

    I don’t really disagree with a lot of what you say (quite witty ) but if I were the leader of a party gearing up for government with between 60 and 65% of the public still not convinced with me and the fact that we have by in large an unpopular Tory government then I would be a little worried.

    Back to that villainous character in the Bond films…Well you do know the bad guys never win.

  36. I still don’t think we’re heading towards a Con majority, but I think even if Labour get the most seats, if they fail to get a majority the coalition can continue, especially as more Lib Dems now say they prefer the tories.

    Yes I’m sure the 7 lib Dems left do indeed perfer the Tories – the rest have already deserted.

  37. @BCrombie

    Pretty much agree with you. I reckon most surprises in 2015 will be from constituencies where the Tories do worse than expected, not better.

  38. @maninthemiddle
    ‘think they’d admit they were wrong on the economy’…. well no, not really. If you read any economic blogs, there is a respected line of opinion that if an economy drops enough, it will eventually return to the mean. I suggest you look at Jonathan Portes or even greenbenches.
    I think Labour were always well aware of the likelihood that the economy would eventually turn. What they are expecting, and what the Tory/Lib Dems fear, is a recovery that does not trickle down. There are so many people on less than the living wage and zero hour contracts, plus the public servants on a pay freeze or 1% increase, plus the amount of money taken out of local economies by the slashing of govt grants in London and the north etc , that it will take a while for any recovery to have an effect on people’s pockets.
    The question is whether this will improve by the time of the next election?
    The Tory/Lib Dems hope so, Labour doesn’t think so.
    That will be the nub.

  39. “I still don’t think we’re heading towards a Con majority”

    Strange that we seem to be facing the other way, though.

  40. BCROMBIE
    “…..but I would think 4% is very optimistic thinking from a scared Tory”

    That you think me “a scared Tory” caused extreme mirth here…..my wife has tears in her eyes….

    My predictions “in a chat on UKPR” bear absolutely no relation to my politics – for info I’m currently to the Left of Ed Miliband, chum!

  41. Oops, sorry. Ignore that last comment. Reading too quickly.

  42. GuyMonde,
    You have me stumped.The only Sam I can think of is Tolkeins,but even that does not seem right.

  43. @Tony Dean

    As you say UKIP are perfect, at the moment, for the Tory press narrative.

    As Boris Johnson puts it… “embrace their [UKIP’s] rise as a sign of public desire for more right-of-centre policies, on Europe, immigration, welfare and the rest.”

    How to bring not only the Tory defectors to UKIP back, but at least some of the LD and Labour defectors with them? It will be fascinating to watch the strategy unfold later this year.

  44. Allan Christie

    I am always dubious about these questions on ‘leadership’.

    None of our politicians are doing very well on this score – it shows the underlying cynicism. This includes the PM as well by the way.

    The other point is that when it comes to best PM as the question. We have so many hypotheticals in the fact that only one person is actually doing the job (and the majority don’t think very well) and any others will be an opinion on whether they could do well in a job they are not doing and haven’t done in the past.

    All in all I think these questions don’t give much indication unless you have a massive positive for one person – as was the case with Blair. In these days of cynicism I don’t think it will make much difference to the voting. We will see ion May 2015

  45. @ Allan Christie

    Well Kim Jong-un is a much misunderstood man I am sure, but in terms of UK politics I would like to see a return to the post-war mixed economy of 1945-1979.

    That would mean that the railways and power companies would return to public ownership. I believe I am correct that in recent surveys a majority of voters agree with that….

    Unfortunately the political establishment, and that includes Ed Miliband, are all to the Right of this position nowadays.

  46. Tony Dean

    I don’t believe I am your ‘chum’

    If I misread your politics then I apologise

  47. tony

    Funnily enough ole kim rong-un also wants to see a return to the post-war mixed economy of 1945-1979.

    He has a lot of other jolly good ideas too.

  48. I would hesitate to call Kim Jong-Un anything like left-of-centre, since he is the head of a rigidly hierarchical (there are literally three classes of citizens) society, a position which he inherited from his father.

    The problem with a lot of left-wing states (like the USSR) has been that they provided a decent amount of positive liberty but at the cost of huge amounts of negative liberty.

    North Korea provides neither positive or negative liberties – its people starve to death and if they complain they are shot. It encourages racial hatred against outsiders and a suicidally militaristic worldview. Juche is a philosophy alien to the left and the right, and there’s no earthly reason to defend it.

    Strictly speaking, that’s a partisan post, but it’s not relevant to UK politics and it’s an issue about which I feel particularly strongly.

  49. TONY DEAN

    “@ Allan Christie

    Well Kim Jong-un is a much misunderstood man I am sure, but in terms of UK politics I would like to see a return to the post-war mixed economy of 1945-1979.

    That would mean that the railways and power companies would return to public ownership. I believe I am correct that in recent surveys a majority of voters agree with that….

    Unfortunately the political establishment, and that includes Ed Miliband, are all to the Right of this position nowadays.
    ________

    Hmm well I can meat you halfway. I too would like to se our power companies and railways brought back into public ownership so long as they are not treated as bottomless pits with regards to funding.

    I’m sort of right of centre in my politics but I do like to see parts of our economies brought back into public hands.

    On old Kim though.. Yeah I admire his vision for NK self-reliance and the fact he can play Ping-Pong with the world superpowers but I wouldn’t like to be in an audience with Kim and was caught not clapping hard enough, I might get shot….

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