Friday polls

We have no fewer than four voting intention polls out today. Populus’s twice weekly poll has topline voting intention figures of CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 9%. Full tabs are here.

Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Evening Standard has topline figures of CON 30%(-3), LAB 39%(+2), LDEM 13%(+4), UKIP 11%(+1). The increased Labour lead seems to be mostly down to likelihood to vote – last month MORI’s results for all voters had a seven point Labour lead, which became a four point lead when they took only those certain to vote. This month their results for all voters had a five point Labour lead, which became a nine point lead when they took only those certain to vote. Full details are here.

MORI also had some interesting questions on coalitions. 60% of people now think it was a bad thing that we had a hung Parliament in 2010, 32% a good thing. This compares to 40% good, 52% bad when it was asked in May 2010. Looking forward, only 26% think it would be a good thing if we had another hung Parliament at the next election, 65% see if as a bad thing (thought 51% of people think it is very or fairly likely). MORI also asked if people would support the party they support going into a coalition in the event of a hung Parliament.

  • 70% of Tory voters would support another coalition with the Lib Dems, only 40% would support a coalition with UKIP.
  • 62% of Labour supporters would support a coalition with the Lib Dems, 63% would support a coalition with the Greens
  • 65% of Lib Dems would support another coalition with the Tories, 53% would support a coalition with Labour

Moving on, YouGov’s daily voting intention poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12% (full tabs are here.

Finally, Sky News have a Survation poll with topline figures of CON 30%(-1%), LAB 34%(-1%), LDEM 12%(+1%), UKIP 18%(+2). Full tabs for that are here


178 Responses to “Friday polls”

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  1. How many Con / Lab / Lib voters (or politicians) would support any coalition, as long as their party gets into government?

    Four poll average:

    Con 31.3%
    Lab 38.0%
    UKIP 12.5%
    Lib 12.0%

  2. Yes indeed Statgeek, but what is interesting is that LD voters by a majority, now identify with the main right of centre party, not as many commentators seem to believe (notably your good self ) the main left of centre party.

  3. @Ewen

    It does suggest that the opportunity for Labour to fish in the pool of LibDem voters is decreasing…

  4. Are the LDs creeping up a bit point by point?

    As they get closer to 15% Labour might start to worry a bit as it just might start biting into their VI.
    Also once the EU Elections are out of the way some UKIP voters will almost certainly start to drift back to the Cons in readiness for the May 2015 GE.
    Interesting year lies ahead I think!

  5. Perhaps not that surprising that those still identifying themselves as LibDems are likely to be more comfortable with a Tory coalition.

  6. LDs creeping up with the EU debate and economy improving maybe? Seems to be a trend upwards anyway.

  7. @Ewen

    “LD voters by a majority, now identify with the main right of centre party, not as many commentators seem to believe (notably your good self ) the main left of centre party”

    I read that as I believe LD to be left of centre. Sorry if that’s not the case.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/pol-com.png

    Lib are right of centre (economically) based on that compass thingy.

  8. @ Sine Nominee (1.13)

    “Also once the EU Elections are out of the way some UKIP voters will almost certainly start to drift back to the Cons in readiness for the May 2015 GE.”

    As I have written on here before, polls show a significant number of UKIP voters are ex Lab & LD. IMO when these people realise UKIP policies on tax, armed forces etc then I suspect that they will be going back mainly to Lab. It all depends on how significant immigration is to them cf. the other issues.

    @Ewen Lightfoot (1.00)

    “Yes indeed Statgeek, but what is interesting is that LD voters by a majority, now identify with the main right of centre party, not as many commentators seem to believe (notably your good self ) the main left of centre party.”

    IMO there are few people who believe that remaining LD voters identify with left of centre. While polls pre 2010 indicated that the LDs were distinctly LoC, the vast majority, if not all, of the lost 13% were of the left leaving the rump as RoC. Why would the Orange Bookers supporters cease to be LD voters, they have achieved all they wanted.

  9. Yes, LD creeping up maybe, but the coalition partner preference %,suggests that they are creeping up as a result of left wing Tories moving to the LD. That would seem the obvious direction of churn, would it not, so it ain’t Labour who should be concerned.

  10. Sorry Statgeek I was going by your regular posting of Lab+LD aggregates versus Con +UKIP.

  11. Its looking obvious that a out right Tory majority is not going to happen, there will be a campaign by both Con and Libs to keep labour out of downing st in the coming months..

  12. These polls are suggesting a slight decrease for the Tories and a slight increase for Labour. I had a feeling that this was the case earlier in the week and this confirms it.

    Perhaps some of those polled want to give the government something to think about ahead of the next budget. Some bad polling may encourage the chancellor to offer something to people.

  13. STEPHEN B

    Its looking obvious that a out right Tory majority is not going to happen, there will be a campaign by both Con and Libs to keep labour out of downing st in the coming months
    ____________

    Ever since Cameron entered number 10 there has been a campaign by Labour to get him out of Downing street.

    I’m afraid it’s a two way thing.

  14. Re: Minimum Wage

    I have a feeling this is not a winner for the Cons. All I have heard on TV is that the Cons originally opposed the minimum wage.

    They have been moved to fight on Labour ground which is a difficult place for them.

  15. Well-just read the speech and very disappointed.
    Nothing specific for the Middle Class at all.

    Just-waiting for a New Economy aka Jerusalem.

    Interesting critiques of the Banking proposals from various quarters.

  16. i would always go to you for an unbiased critique of an Ed Miliband speech, Colin.

  17. @Ewen Lightfoot

    “…. is that LD voters by a majority, now identify with the main right of centre party, ”

    This doesn’t surprise me because most of the left leaning Lib Dem voters have jumped ship by now, leaving behind the element of Lib Dem support that has more centre-right leanings and which, self-evidently, is very comfortable in coalition with the Conservatives. On that basis, I’d say 53% of Lib Dem voters saying that they would support a coalition with Labour is quite a high figure, considering the nature of their remaining support. The fact that a higher figure prefer coalition with the Tories shouldn’t surprise any of us.

    As for the many polls publishing today, there’s nothing much in any of them to suggest a change from the status quo that has existed for 6 months or so now, maybe even longer. Survation is looking a bit out of step now and 18% for UKIP has to be an overestimation surely, doesn’t it?

  18. @Colin

    All EM needs to say “Day of reckoning for the Bankers”.
    and he gets my vote. I know it seems a bit unfair but I do want the bankers to suffer for screwing up the economy and all their rate fixing etc.

  19. Colin

    Well-just read the speech and very disappointed.
    Nothing specific for the Middle Class at all.

    Well there’s a surprise

  20. Last week an opinion poll showed a very small Labour lead. The press produced a slew of articles referring to this. Since then polls are reverting to larger Labour leads with 38%, 39% or 40% yet hardly a mention. Why are so many political journalists so poor at basic statistical interpretation?

  21. NICKP

    I didn’t give one-merely observing that , after considerable hype & trailing in the Press-there were no specific proposals to help the “Middle Class” 9 as defined)

    The critiques of his Banking proposals are on the record-I didn’t comment on them -I don’t need to.

  22. COUPER

    Glad he won you over-seems to have been realatively easy to do !

    ROGER REBEL

    It is -given the pre-speech spin. But maybe the Press misunderstood the brief at that time ?

    Hey ho !

  23. Couper2802,
    On 9/1/2014 George Osborne said that raising the minimum wage would be
    Self-defeating and cost jobs.Yesterday he is all in favour of it because the
    Economy is improving and it will be fiscally neutral.an amazing change of
    Opinion.Will it gain votes?I am not sure employers will be over the moon but
    Who knows .Sometimes it seems that his desire to play the political game
    Overcomes thoughtful policy,but this is still good news for the lower paid.

  24. CB11

    @”As for the many polls publishing today, there’s nothing much in any of them to suggest a change from the status quo that has existed for 6 months or so now, maybe even longer. ”

    Inso far as I have any feel for this at all-which is not much; or any expertise in the topic-which is zero…………I tend to agree.

  25. Good series of polls for labour when things looked a little choppy earlier in the week

  26. I was at the DSA test centre a couple of hours ago (failed, by the way) and noticed a sign saying from April 2014 driving theory tests will only be offered in English and Welsh.

    That seems to me to be quite a petty piece of legislation that punishes those who are more comfortable completing a test in their first language. Driving theory is not an English exam. Surely someone who learns driving theory in Polish or Urdu is just as qualified to take their practical test as someone who takes it in English.

    It also undermines the idea that we want people to find work if we deny them what is an essential qualification for many jobs because their English isn’t good enough to pass quite a specialist test.

    I know there’s a small amount of money that could be saved on translation, and the number of people affected is quite small, but I still don’t think it’s very fair.

  27. @Peter Bell

    “As I have written on here before, polls show a significant number of UKIP voters are ex Lab & LD. IMO when these people realise UKIP policies on tax, armed forces etc then I suspect that they will be going back mainly to Lab”

    You’ve hit upon an oft overlooked factor in the UKIP vote. I think they’ve hurt the Tories more than Labour but this idea that they’re some temporary repository for disgruntled Tory voters, all ready to be whistled home come election time is a nonsense in my view. Their current 12% or so is made up of a multiplicity of political strands, many of whom are likely to become abstainers in a General Election rather than voters for other parties.

    It’s also worth remembering that the Tories only polled 36% of the vote in May 2010 at a time when UKIP garnered just 3.1% of the vote. Somebody might need to help me here, but isn’t that a Tory/UKIP pool of voters of 39%? Current polls are now saying that combined figure is anywhere between 42% and 48%.

    Something isn’t adding up here.

  28. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    ____________
    Ever since Cameron entered number 10 there has been a campaign by Labour to get him out of Downing street.
    I’m afraid it’s a two way thing.
    Report comment
    January 17th, 2014 at 2:13 pm

    That’s one of the most obvious points I’ve heard expressed here – what would you expect? A campaign to keep Cameron there? The Tories of course ran a campaign to keep Brown in Downing Street! Other breaking news…. It’s Friday and also shock horror it’s known to be quite cold in winter

  29. ANN IN WALES

    @”Sometimes it seems that his desire to play the political game Overcomes thoughtful policy”

    You don’t concede the possibility of “thoughtful policy” being synonymous with ” the political game”?

    Surely that is what political parties strive for ?

  30. I think Colin’s verdict on EM big eagerly awaited speech is…

    http://ashcampbell.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Not_facebook_not_like_thumbs_down.png

  31. CHRIS

    Do me a favour, next time you copy and paste try not to copy the (report comment) link. You had me worried for a moment lol.

    Yeah of course my comment was stating the obvious but it was on the back of someone else’s obvious comment.

  32. stephen B

    Not to me, I think a small Tory majority is the most likely result in 2015.

  33. These polls & the previous YouGov one will be a relief to Labour supporters (me included) after the wobble, or what looked like a wobble, earlier in the week. If anything the Labour lead may just be a fraction higher on average than at the beginning of the year, but it is only a small fraction.

  34. ALLAN

    Howard will be along in a mo to remind us that it is what voters think which matters……….and that they wouldn’t have noticed much if he had promised to string bankers up on telegraph poles & make the Living Wage mandatory for every citizen from Birth.

  35. Colin,
    A thoughtful policy is not one that is in direct contradiction to a statement made
    On the subject a week earlier.As far as I can see.

  36. couper2802

    If you think the bankers will suffer (using your words) under a Labour Government then i think your are quite wrong. The Financial Sector is crucial to the UK economy and likely to remain so for many a day yet. I wish it wasn’t but it is. Therefore if EDM penalises the banking sector in any meaningful way the UK economy will suffer drastically and the bankers who you hate will be making lots of money elsewhere in the World. You should also remember it wasn’t just bankers who caused the collapse, it was Governments as well.

  37. @toh – and the banking regulatory system that the Tories wanted less off pre 2007 – oh and in addition supporting labours spending plans up to this point. Hell of a lot amnesia and governing by hindsight going on by our press and so called experts

  38. @Stephen B: “there will be a campaign by both Con and Libs to keep labour out of downing st in the coming months”

    Less so by the LibDems, I imagine, who could be looking to form a coalition with either party.

  39. COLIN

    ALLAN

    “Howard will be along in a mo to remind us that it is what voters think which matters……….and that they wouldn’t have noticed much if he had promised to string bankers up on telegraph poles & make the Living Wage mandatory for every citizen from Birth”
    __________

    I look forward to his arrival with anticipation.

  40. Chris

    What people say and do in opposition is not relevant, it’s what parties do in power that counts and if Labour get in in 2015 they would be mad to damage our banking sector so I’m betting they would not.

  41. The problem I see with EM approach to banking reforms is that it’s ill thought out and more populous rhetoric than anything so it can appeal to voters, just like his policy on reducing fuel bills.

    In reality he is doing more harm than good to the economy and like the energy firms banks are getting jittery.

    Yes I too would like to see banking reforms and fuel bills reduced but I don’t think Labour have what it takes to carry this through.

  42. @Ewen

    Yes, that’s a fancy on my part. I tend to see the two groups as the most likely partners, in the single sense that we expect support from Lab to move to Lib and back, and the same for the other group.

    It’s not based on anything other than Lab + Lab deserters Vs Con + Con deserters (if that’s a fair way to look at it).

  43. @TOH

    “…if Labour get in in 2015 they would be mad to damage our banking sector so I’m betting they would not.”

    But the quid pro quo of not damaging the banking sector isn’t letting it remain as it is. Change isn’t the same thing as damage if you improve functionality. I think you’re being ultra-conservative by automatically associating change with damage. Quite often the opposite is true.

  44. ANN IN WALES

    Was this the comment you referred to ?

    “Mr Osborne said: “I think everyone wants to see an increase in the minimum wage. I would like to see an increase in the minimum wage.

    “But it has to be done in a way that doesn’t cost jobs, because that would be self-defeating.

    “We have a Low Pay Commission as a body that exists to make exactly that judgment.

    “What we have got to do as a country is get the balance right between supporting business, growing our economy and making sure it is a recovery for all, and that is what our long-term plan is all about delivering.”

  45. THE OTHER HOWARD

    Excellent point but with the polls pointing to a Labour government then inadvertently labour could already be damaging the banking sector with investment going elsewhere so unfortunately (in this case) what the opposition say is relevant.

  46. @TOH

    It seems the people that caused the crash – the bankers – are still living high on the hog while the rest of the country suffers. It is only natural to be annoyed that they are continuing as normal..

    So even if he cant do all that much the fact that EM wants to and is prepared to take them on is good enough for me.

    It is a bit like Farage on immigration. I don’t care if it means lower growth as long as the Bankers suffer.

  47. MRNAMELESS

    As a road user myself (cycle and car) I would be a lot more comfortable knowing that my fellow road users had a basic grasp of English.I think it’s important that people know what stop! do not enter! no right turn! etc mean.

    Good luck on your next test.

  48. Allan Christie,

    I see your point, but of the signs you mention only one has writing on it and road signs (I believe) are internationally standardized. I mean non-English speaking tourists are allowed to drive here!

  49. couper2802

    I know what you mean but he won’t really take them on for the reasons I have given, it’s easy to say things like that in opposition. What surprises me is that you don’t seem to have the same antipathy for the last Government or the millions of people, especially in the USA who borrowed irresponsibly since they were equally responsible.

  50. Allan Christie

    You may be righ but I hope not.

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