As well as the normal Sun voting intention poll, they also had a YouGov poll on the European elections this morning. Topline voting intention figures were CON 23%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 26%, Greens 5%. Labour in first place, UKIP in a strong second and the Conservatives in third, the Lib Dems way behind. Full tabs are here.

Looking at only those certain to vote puts UKIP in an even stronger position – they would be on 30% to Labour’s 32%. I’m somewhat cautious about European election polls more than a month or two out – in 2009 polls done in January bore very little resemblence to what the result turned out to be, with UKIP advancing strongly in teh months leading up the election (though to sonme degree that was down to the expenses scandal breaking). These figures already look very positive for UKIP.

Worth noting is if these were the results there is a chance that the Lib Dems could be wiped out. On a uniform swing this give Labour 28 MEPs, UKIP 23 MEPs, the Conservatives 15, the Greens 1, SNP 2, Plaid 1 (and three in Northern Ireland). In practice it would be very close, who gets the final seat in constituencies with a large number of MEPs can come down to fractions of percentage points and the Lib Dems would just miss out in the South East and South West, but a wipe out is a realistic possibility. (The reason, if you are wondering, for the slightly odd suggestion that the Greens could get a seat with far fewer votes than the Lib Dems is because the strongest Green region is the South East and the Lib Dems strongest region is the South West – you need fewer votes to win a seat in the South East).

Finally, for methodology anoraks amongst you, YouGov’s question prompts for all the parties in the European Parliament – so including UKIP, Green and the BNP. This is a change from 2009 that we pondered for a while. In 2004 YouGov prompted for all the parties, and overestimated UKIP support. In 2009 we only prompted for Con, Lab, Lib Dem and SNP/PC and got UKIP pretty much right (our last poll had them on 18%, in the event they got 17%). However, given they came second last time (and on that basis the broadcast media will presumably be required to give them as much coverage as Labour and the Conservatives during the run up to the election), and the media focus is very likely to be on how well UKIP do and whether they win, we thought it more appropriate to put them in the main prompt for the European elections. Peter Kellner has written more about it here.

106 Responses to “YouGov European election poll”

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  1. @ALEC

    I agree about the tax thing – no debate that real incomes are falling, before or after tax. I have blathered on about house prices quite enough so won’t elaborate on this occasion!

    For me the bizarre is Visa (which you’d think was a good proxy for the whole retail market and if anything strengthened by a swing to online) going sharply down whilst the overall market is sharply up. It doesn’t add up in my small mind.

  2. “The Tory response to Miliband’s speech is very odd…”

    But the important thing is that he managed to fit ‘hardworking’ in twice and ‘working hard’ once.

    Last night on QT Shapps promised that ‘hardworking’ families would receive a cut of the fracking money. Will there be a test to ensure that none of the lazy ones receives it?

  3. @Guymonde

    Perhaps their statistics are no more reliable than the police’s.

  4. Perhaps I’m credulous.

    I can’t see why Visa would lie and I doubt the ONS would, though I guess the latter is based on some kind of poll (and therefore with an MOE – but 7-8% divergence from Visa doesn’t sound like MOE)

    But then, by and large I believe the police stats also, particularly as they are generally in synch with the National Crime Survey (another poll subject no doubt to MOE!)

  5. Good series of polls for labour when things looked a little choppy earlier in the week

  6. According to my calculations using a uniform swing from the You Gov Euro Poll, the Lib Dems would win the eighth seat in the South East (a net loss of one) and the Greens would not win a seat. The Lib Dems would lose out however in the South West.

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