The Sun Politics team have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov voting intention figures – topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%. There was a three point YouGov lead yesterday, but today’s figures are far more representative of recent YouGov polls, which on average have been showing a six point lead.

60 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 12”

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  1. Regarding proportionality and LD seats:

    If you want a PR system, you have a choice: either have a single constituency on some sort of list system (like Germany does), or keep some sort of regional link and have smaller lists. If you go for the latter option, that weakens the proportional element.

    With constituencies in the UK varying between 3 and 10 seats, this roughly works out as needing between 7% and 25% of the vote to get your first seat (depending on how many votes go to minor parties) this means if you’ve only got 10% of the vote spread across the country, you’re probably going to land a lot less than 10% of the seats.

    IMHO, the outcome in the UK is a sideshow. I’m far more interested in the rise of nationalist and anti-establishment parties on the continent. For once, that could have a lot more impact.

  2. Stan J,

    Northern Ireland, presumably?

    I can’t see the Libs losing all their seats while the SW is included, but they’re certainly not looking at a fun time.

  3. to suggest that because labour are in the lead in the euro poll means that the majority are in favour of the EU does not follow.
    the majority of conservative voters want either out or a renegotiated position.
    likewise ukip.
    a section of the labour vote will be likewise as one must not confuse support of a party with a person supporting all of that party’s policies.
    this poll cannot be interpreted as showing support for the present situation pertaining to Europe.
    also many conservative voters will exercise a protest vote in the eu elections by voting for ukip who would not normally touch them with a barge pole.

  4. I raised this with Neil A, saying that I did not believe that the Police recorded all crime reported to them. He was very dismissive of this, saying that it was recorded, but not all of it was investigated.

    Neil is right if it is reported it is recorded,

    Back in my day in the 80’s and 90’s at the Busiest Police Station in the Met we routinely recorded 15,000 crimes a year, with a CID and Beat Crime (Uniform) Investigating team numbering 30 we of course concentrated on those which were likely to result in an arrest or recovery of stolen goods.

    I doubt things have changed much other than overall levels of crime are a bit lower.

  5. @Chris Neville-Smith

    Quite. Am honestly surpised there is not a wider, anti-establishment network of parties across Europe. ‘Supposedly’ all the UK parties want reform, why are they not talking to other European parties?

    Anti-Euro parties will also be an interesting outcome.

  6. @Fraser

    The big obstacle the anti-establishment parties have right now is that many of them agree on little apart from not liking the EU. It is, for example, unimaginable that Italy’s 5-star movement would co-operate with France’s National Front.

    My money’s on political paralysis in the EU after the elections. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

  7. Fraser
    I suppose you are aware that nationalist parties are doing just that, the leading lights being Wilders in NL and le Pen in F. The problem for UK nationalists is that the Dutch party doesn’t like islamists, and the French party doesn’t like the jewish, whereas Farage claims not to have it in for ethnic minorities.

  8. C N-S
    I don’t quite follow your predictions of ‘political paralysis’ as the EU does not function democratically like that. Everything is ultimately subject to approval by the Council of Ministers and requires ratification in national law by each state’s parliament. The EU parliament has very little power. I had the general impression that nationalist party members took little interest in the EUP and regarded it as just a source of income and / or funding for their parties.

    I doubt if many voters have any interest in what their MEPs actually do. I wager that not many have any knowledge of *what* they do either.

  9. The upcoming problem with the EU is that, so far, the European Parliament’s power has largely been the nuclear options of vetoing the appointment of the whole European Parliament or voting down entire pieces of legislation. So far (apart from the situation in 1999 when there was a massive scandal), no-one’s been prepared to inflict the chaos this will cause.

    Parties like UKIP, FN and M5S, however, have no such reservations about grinding the whole thing to a halt. In theory, the mainstream parties could close ranks and unite against the newcomers. However, if 30% of seats do go to anti-EU MEPs as some are suggestion, that would require 70% of the remaining MEPs to agree on any course of action. The compromising required to achieve that would be a very difficult task.

  10. 97% of UKIP Westminster VI voters intend to vote UKIP in the EU elections. 86% Lab, 81% Lib and 69% Con, with the lion’s share of the big three’s defections going to UKIP.

    69% of the UKIP VI folk are 40+, two thirds of LD voters are under 40. If this continues, will this have an effect on party funding nearer the election (or the General Election) ?

    Scotland tops the “10 – Definitely will vote” category at 55%. London 44%, RoS 40%, M&W 39% and the North 37%.

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