Populus’s twice-weekly voting intention polls have now also started up for the new year, with their first tables for 2014 published here. Voting intentions are CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 8%.

Meanwhile this morning’s daily YouGov poll has figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs here.


217 Responses to “Latest Populus and YouGov figures”

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  1. Norbold for Norbiton might had a ring to it… but then Hinkley Bosworth would be puttting in a bid for the Newbold Verdon with Desford and Peckleton ward.

    Norbold for St Johns Tendring I say.

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  2. G-spot:
    “Michael Ashcroft, former deputy chairman of the Conservatives, said a Ukip victory in the Wythenshawe and Sale East byelection, for the vacant seat following the death of Labour MP Paul Goggins, would be “a game changer”. Bookies have slashed Ukip’s odds from 12/1 to 4/1 as Labour remains odds-on to retain the seat having won with a majority of 7,575 in 2010.”
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/12/brussels-slaps-down-threats-immigration

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  3. Dunno about the military boys but for proper violent education you can’t beat a Catholic priest.

    Unfortunately they CAN beat you.

    Happy days.

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  4. Top end of the range for labours lead but it has been moving one way post Christmas. Wonder if there is any correlation of post Xmas blues and government popularity.

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  5. Toby Young is getting excited about UKIP prospects in W&SE, he has already set up a CountryB4Party website in an attempt to coordinate Con/UKIP tactical voting:

    “If Farage decides to concentrate the party’s resources on unseating Labour MPs in the North and the Midlands, Conservatives should reciprocate by not campaigning too energetically in those same seats because it’s in our interests for Ukip to turn its attention away from winning Conservative-held seats in the South.”

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  6. @Mike N

    I think any prospect of UKIP winning W and SE is highly improbable.

    I think:

    1. Labour will win
    2. UKIP and the Conservatives will be fighting for second (UKIP may beat them)
    3. The LIb Dems will be way behind.They could lose their deposit

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  7. On the theme of schools & teaching this is a great story :-

    The London Academy of Excellence ( the so called Eton of the East End) founded in 2012, is the first selective free school sixth form college in the London borough of Newham.
    The school is selective and was founded in collaboration with Brighton College, Caterham School, Eton College, City of London School, Forest School, Highgate School, King’s College School Wimbledon and Roedean School.

    In its first year, the academy enrolled 200 students.
    At the start of its second year the Academy announced that six of its students had been offered places at Oxford or Cambridge universities, exceeding the previous record for the whole of the borough of Newham.

    Talented children are everywhere-they just need encouragement & good teaching.

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  8. @Carfrew

    There is a finite limit to the number of desk, chairs and people to class, so it’s not some number above 45 or 50 (or whatever the physical capacity of a classroom is these days). Ergo, it’s not a problem if the teacher is engaging the children in a manner that prevents disruption and involves the entire class. They can always split the class into two and have competitions, so that suddenly there’s a bit of fun, with kids committed to ‘their team’ and it’s two groups of 20 or 16 or whatever, which is slightly easier to manage.

    Declaring that all teachers cannot successfully manage any class over ‘x’ size is not really realistic.

    ——

    I didn’t declare that though. My point was that you changed it. Initially you said there was “no difference”, now you say you’ll “manage”.

    My point, is that smaller class sizes allow you to go beyond just “managing”. Don’t you want the best learning experience, rather than just managing? If you have more tight streaming, can set more homework, or have more time to design better resources, and have a tighter ability range, that allows more tailoring to pupils, in ways you don’t get with bigger classes.

    Another point is that smaller class sizes allow the untrained to “manage” better, as I witnessed in Public school. Leading to the delusion that its all so easy. So does the ability to rely on textbooks etc when teaching teenagers. Try doing that with infants…

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  9. And, you can also have more one-to-one with smaller classes of course…

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  10. Declaring that all teachers cannot successfully manage any class over ‘x’ size is not really realistic.

    -The Average Class Size at Eton is 9!

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  11. Good Morning CARFREW.
    My wife’s Independent School also gives staff 30% non contact time, (‘free’ lessons) This allows them to be available to their students much more readily than they would be able to be in a school where contact is close to 90%

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  12. @STATGEEK

    “To some extent, the training is like a driving licence. We don’t let novice drivers alone on the road without training, why take the risk with teachers?”

    My grandfather never had one, and drove all his 84 year old adult life, and never had a crash or points. Isn’t the ‘risk’ simply that not all qualified people make good teachers, and not all teachers need a qualification, if they can demonstrate the qualities that we would expect from good teachers (confidence, communication and so on)?

    When we were at school, the teaching trainees were looked on as an opportunity for fun and disruption. Would a 30+ ex-forces person be seen ass such, compared to a 20+ graduate?

    At this rate, we’ll demand politicians having doctorates in politics, and take-away employees being qualified chefs. There comes a point where the point is missed. (if you get my point :))

    !!! And statgeeks will have to be qualified statisticians…it’s a baaad idea! :

    ——-

    The point of the qualification at the very least, is to screen out the nightmares, as with driving. And well, things have changed a bit in education, Statgeek. Try using a more robust manner with modern pupils and parents and see how much of a stink they can cause in today’s complaint culture. And there’s a big difference between teaching high school and infants, something you don’t seem to be engaging with. Nor are you engaging with how things change once you have SEN, English as a second language, mixed ability classes etc. But since this has all cropped up before, allow me to make things a little clearer…

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  13. The value of training, (cont’.)

    Training can also assist with other things you might not consider. Would you let just anyone teach their primary class PE without already having been trained to teach it safely? What about someone who might be a good teacher but who has voice projection issues? In training that can be identified and they can be given coaching.

    By now you ought to realise this is just scratching the surface. For example, in teacher training, you may teach several different year groups. This gives you a better idea of progression, what pupils will have learned in previous years – and how – and what they will go on to learn, which can have quite some impact on your teaching. You may work with a variety of different teachers, hoovering up different teaching strategies, behaviour management strategies, observe how best to use an assistant, how best to use outdoor play…

    And also, Observing ways of handling sensitively issues with parents. On a four year B Ed you’ll have spent years getting to know the curriculum. You’ll already know the high frequency words, you’ll have a better idea what typical performance is, you’ll probably be able to level a piece of work which can take some getting used to. You’ll have experienced and evaluated a range of resources. If your college is up to speed and there are changes to the curriculum planned they may already be preparing you with draft copies.

    You’ll probably have spent time in an IT suite loaded with educational resources for you to try out. You may have been taught to use video as well. Getting the picture? Infants’ vocabulary may be rather restricted and you can easily confuse as a result. Would you know to perhaps avoid “more” or “less” and instead maybe use “bigger” or “smaller”? Or maybe to introduce them to the words instead.

    If I mentioned place value, and subtraction, would they have any resonance for you? Would you know they are commonly regarded as particularly tricky aspects of maths to teach? Did the army give you any strategies for teaching autistic children? What about an elective mute? What are the principles of learning? I could tell you, or you might look them up but it’s still going to take a while to learn to effortlessly deploy them. Differentiation in planning, can be quite tricky in mixed-ability classes: handy if in training you had a teacher regularly checking and advising you on your planning wouldn’t you think.

    As a bit of homework to ponder on at leisure: how do you teach creativity? And I haven’t even got stuck into the psychology of development, or pedagogy which can be quite useful. Trainees may well have done a dissertation researching something in the classroom which can also be of benefit. Four years with an educationally-focused library and librarians aware of precisely what educational books and papers you might find suitable. A Godsend at times…

    Would you know how to design an educational environment that is safe, minimises unwanted distraction but maximally engages in the learning? Without getting in each others’ way? You might, in the army, have developed your own ideas on managing behaviour but it doesn’t work very well if it is inconsistent with approaches used by other staff and undermines them.

    This is still only scratching the surface because a B Ed is FOUR YEARS!!! Would you know what work would be best to photograph for assessment? Etc., etc., etc….

    And the elephant in the room is this idea that there are legions of naturally gifted teachers out there, ready to be deposited in the classroom. But what if they aren’t all that common, bearing in mind getting on for one percent of the population works in education. That’s quite some demand for the naturally-gifted. What if there aren’t nearly enough to go around, so we have to fill in most of the time with the less “natural” and, you know, actually help them with some training…

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  14. ROSIE

    “Some daft woman on This Week [Sun journalist] talked about the usual “life-style choices” [as though they all chose the unemployed route] and even more bizarrely “Living a life of LUXURY with our money”

    If it is so luxurious I think even more might try it.

    None of that is to defend those who milk the system just to point out its a small minority and its a bonkers system”
    __________

    Couldn’t agree more and the ones who really milk the system tend to be rogue landlords letting out flats and claiming housing benefit for multiple people who don’t even exist but as per usual the stigma is chucked at the small claimants who are easy targets.

    Yeah like you say if life on benefits is so luxurious I too might even be tempted to give it a try.

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  15. I’m a Crosland-ite on the issue of school facilities and classroom sizes.

    1) Look at what standards to top Public Schools have.

    2) Set this as an aspiration for every state school.

    3) Accept that 2 is politically unrealistic, but but the burden of proof of efficacy onto those whose policies would move the situation further away from 2).

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  16. “-The Average Class Size at Eton is 9!”

    This is a very awkward number if you want to employ El Stattso’s cunning plan of dividing a class into two.

    I s’pose there are still a lot of Toff’s children around so you could chop one in half, four could investigaet how the bottom half works and other lot the top bit and then report back and share their combined knowledge.

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  17. @Carfrew

    Agree to differ. Point of the site lost in this subject, and what we believe won’t change the facts.

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