Elections in 2014

After the Christmas and New Year break we should be getting some polling tonight – Lord Ashcroft at least is promising a new batch of research (and perhaps Opinium will start up their fortnightly Observer polls again – YouGov’s daily polling doesn’t start again till Monday).

In the meantime, I’ve updated the site to reflect the elections in the year ahead:

Polls on the European election so far are here, though note the experiences of 2009 when early polls for the European election bore very little resemblence at all to the actual result. We don’t know if it was because people didn’t really consider European voting intention until much closer to the time, or the increased publicity UKIP got in the run up to the European elections, or because the expenses scandal shook things up, but one way or the other UKIP support massively increased in the run up to the European elections in 2009 and polls conducted more than a month or so before were of little use in predicting them.

On the election guide part of the site I’ve also added information on the candidates standing so far (Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, West Midlands, East Midlands, Wales, Eastern, South West, South East, London)

Aside from the locals on the same day as the European election, the other big election is the Scottish Independence referendum on the 18th September (my birthday incidently – what better present can one get for a psephologist than a referendum for your birthday?). Polls on the referendum so far are all collected here.


112 Responses to “Elections in 2014”

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  1. NEILA

    Hard work isn’t it ?

    !!!

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  2. neil a

    Arsenal 2 Spurs 0

    Bit one-sided really I thought.

    Will be a travesty if Theo W – one of the nicest blokes in the game I feel – is charged for reacting to barrage of insults and coins from Spurs “fans” with a lovely smile and a good-natured reminder of the score.

    Seems to be all one-sided and supporters can act in the most vitriolic nasty way and get away with it.

    Not just Spurs of course, all of them. I sat next to an Arsenal supporter who was so foul mouthed about the Dutch that I had to lean forward and apologise to a couple of Ajax fans in front of me a few years ago.

    Its like car drivers syndrome.

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  3. @Neil A – “It doesn’t help when I pop in here for some discourse to find the usual wall-to-wall analysis of why the Tories are pathetic losers who haven’t a snowballs chance in Hell.”

    To be honest, I think that’s only natural when a party is consistently well behind in the polls, and has been for a good long while.

    When you actually aggregate all the views expressed here, what you yourself are actually saying is pretty similar to the majority of posters. Namely, that Labour is ahead, a Tory recovery is possible, Tories may get the largest number of seats (perhaps this isn’t a majority view, but a substantial minority I would say) but that a Tory majority is a very distant prospect.

    Apart from one or two outliers (on both flanks) most posters seem to talking about a hung parliament and clustering somewhere in the middle. A bit like opinion polls in general really.

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  4. @colin – “Hard work isn’t it ?”

    Not half as hard as it was between 2007 – 2010.

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  5. col

    “Hard work isn’t it ?”

    I’m finding it all a bit of a laugh myself.

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  6. Know what you mean, Neil A.

    Forest won 5-0 though, so I’m on a roll.

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  7. Hi Alec,

    “Apart from one or two outliers (on both flanks) most posters seem to talking about a hung parliament and clustering somewhere in the middle. A bit like opinion polls in general really.”

    I’m an outlier. I think a hung parliament is a very low probability. That’s because (a) I think Labour’s 38 is people who really aren’t going to shift for reasons I’m not allowed to discuss at any length, and (b) I think the Tory problem with the 5% or so who left them for UKIP early in the parliament aren’t neo-liberal Tories at all. So I don’t think they’ll come back in droves.

    My fears are that a Labour government won’t act radically to deal with a debt problem by changing the ground rules of the game, because someone is going to have to do that sooner rather than later. As that is a course of action advocated right now by none of the parties, I hope the boss won’t say it’s partisan to mention it!

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  8. @MrNameless

    I don’t think you can really stretch mid-term into the last year of a five-year government. I’d put it as the middle two years out of five with eighteen months either side.

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  9. roger

    Its actually the 130th Thursday following the date of the election.

    I s’pose you could stretch it over the following weekend as well.

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  10. I’d say “mid term” is basically anything more than 12 months after the previous GE and more than 12 months before the next one.

    Certainly, in 1986 many commentators were of the view that Thatcher, trailing badly in the opinion polls, was heading for certain defeat.

    Fixed parliaments perhaps slightly change the rules, but we’ve never had one before so we can’t really know yet.

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  11. Colin

    There you go.

    http://www.ibtimes.com/uk-autumn-statement-preview-better-q3-gdp-dip-deficit-help-george-osborne-1482892

    If our performance HAD been similar to that of the USA, our GDP would be about £150bn bigger than it actually is, and we’d have cumulatively have produced about £350bn more than we actually have done since 2010.

    Makes you think, eh?

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  12. @Lefty,

    Well, yes, but the graph also shows that a large part of the difference occurs in the period prior to the election of the current government. By May 2010 the US had already got back to almost where they started, whereas our wonderful Labour run country was still 5% down on pre-crash GDP. I accept that post May 2010, US growth has been about double that of the UK, but then again their debt-to-GDP ratio increased by significantly more than the UK during that period, so it is not necessarily evidence that deficit reduction is best tackled by borrowing and spending to boost growth.

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