YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun this morning had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%. The five point Labour lead is pretty typical of what YouGov have been showing over the last fortnight. The full tabs are here.

Meanwhile Populus’s twice-weekly poll has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 8%. Full tabs are here. This is the last Populus poll of the year. For YouGov there is one still to come (the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll) then they too stop for the Christmas period.


166 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. @Statgeek – I understand from reports in today’s Guardian that our esteemed Leader of Her Majesties Opposition is considering a two year freeze on day length if they win the next election, during which time they will reform the solar cycle to combat the length of day crisis.

  2. Performance related pay has (AFAIK) been demonstrated in most cases to lead to worse performance.
    This of course is why it is heavily promoted. In my experience (both public and private sector) it has usually been cover for giving unwarranted pay rises to those (myself included) who were already generously paid.
    Even in the tight little world of the IT industry it was pretty well impossible to devise a bonus scheme – even for sales people – which did anything but drive unintended consequences.
    IMO MPs should be paid according to a formula – probably not unakin to the one currently causing such a furore – which assesses the rate for the job against comparable jobs in the outside world.
    They should either get accommodation provided as Statgeek says or an allowance significantly less than the cost of such accommodation if they want to make their own arrangements. If their constituency is within ‘sensible’ commuting distance of London (30 miles from Westminster?) no such allowance.
    There might be a case for some kind of management review of performance – attendance at house, dealing with constituents issues? – to discourage any idlers.

  3. Oh and

    1) In the absence of colours I have adopted the dogs’ definitions in my header [G] for Gentleman (ROFL) and TT for… work it out for yourselves.

    2) A Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.

  4. @Carfrew

    some big doubts the UK does need more electricity capacity and even more doubts it has the money to pay for
    it. The UK does have form on ‘investments’ in this field – although the worst state investment has to be that of the
    British Steel Corporation in the 1970’s. l

  5. Alec

    More populist nonsense. If the Rt Hon gentleman thought for a moment, he’d realise that this Govt has already given people a way out of length of day crisis. They can use the cut in top tax rate to go to Australia or South Africa for a month in mid December.

    What the Rt Hon Gentleman should be doing is encouraging more people to aspire to winter in southern climes, not try to stop the earth turning.

  6. @Guymonde:

    But what’s a comparable job? A vicar, a social worker, a university lecturer? What puts him or her on a level with a £70,000 to £100,000 salaried post?

  7. @WOLF

    “some big doubts the UK does need more electricity capacity and even more doubts it has the money to pay for
    it. The UK does have form on ‘investments’ in this field – although the worst state investment has to be that of the
    British Steel Corporation in the 1970?s.”

    ————–

    Infrastructure has a bigger return on investment than a lot of other spending. Investment in the Seventies was not about a short-term return though, it was about trying to keep sectors afloat during the Prolonged hammering of the oil crisis. Like the Americans more recently saved their car industry after the Crunch.

    We had a habit of investing then giving up, or letting others reap the rewards. In the US however, state spending developed the internet, GPS, provided initial support for the nascent computer chip industry and much else besides. Touchscreens, pulsed lasers for eye treatments, loads of stuff.

    The irony is it is the fruits of state spending that allows you to complain that it doesn’t bear much fruit…

  8. HOWARD

    “I disagree. You don’t get ‘less working hours’ you get fewer. I imagine each working hour is as worthwhile as another.”

    If I can be pedantic about a fellow pedant, each working hour is not of equal worth. “Most people are more easily distracted from noon to 4 p.m., according to recent research led by Robert Matchock, an associate professor of psychology at Pennsylvania State University.”

    Secondary school timetablers have long known that, which is why the different periods of each subject are normally spread as equally as possible among the different parts of the school day.

  9. @RogerH

    Good question, and you can get into all sorts of hot water trying to answer it because of the debatable way relative salaries are set/negotiated in this country (and elsewhere) and the lack of understanding most of us have of what people are paid.
    My niece works part time as a nanny for a couple who are both investment bankers and gets paid £60K pa plus the use of the car. Not because she is a great negotiator but because they think that is the rate for the job. Boris Johnson thinks the £250K he gets for his Telegraph column is ‘peanuts’
    A soldier serving overseas might scrape the same pay as a traffic warden. A computer programmer in London gets £57500 on average, an investment banker (before bonuses etc) £72500 (those last 2 courtesy of CWjobs)
    I might reasonably take the view that an MP should be paid more than a banker (because her job is more important/responsible) but less than a soldier (because the MP doesn’t have to live in a horrible camp and get shot at)

  10. I’m not sure anyone should be paid as much as a banker (least of all bankers), never mind more. Nor do you want people to be attracted to the job by the money. If they’re keen enough they’ll want to do it anyway and will find other ways to fund an extravagant lifestyle (e.g. Churchill).

  11. Trouble is you’re not going to find 650 Churchills. More likely to have a bunch of consultants and ‘cabs for hire’, or people prioritising their career as a barrister etc,

  12. Statgeek

    My apologies. My schoolmaster stunt only served to bring out more school-mastery. However, write out one hundred times, ‘Howard is a TT’ (see Guymonde for definition).

  13. Guymonde – TT? The mind boggles. I can think only of the most inappropriate phrase, one quite unfitted to head your elegant and instructive posts. A search of the internet reveals some possibilities but too many – The Truth (well yes, but is it for you to say?), Transport Tycoon (I thought you were in IT), Teen Titan (how come you have a niece, possible but unlikely) Tina Turner (inconsistent with the G), Trailer Trash (I think not), Tiny Tim (Well I suppose that Christmas is the time to reveal that). So for me at least the TT remains obscure. But Happy Christmas anyway (and to Ann in Wales who is, I suspect, not around for a bit)

  14. It’s a dog phrase. Something to do with being dedciated to making pancakes.

  15. John :Pilgrim,

    ” I suggest rather that they have tended to, and now routinely do, practice the politics of the possible in support of the social market – looking for corrections where possible and necessary – e.g. in drawing back from armed interventions overseas, and in reforms to the EU package. Hence an element of consistency to which VI is responding.”

    (1) None of those things are contrary to a shift from socialism to liberalism. That Labour has become more liberal and less socialist over the last 30 years seems beyond dispute.

    (2) I don’t remember Labour having any distinct “withdraw from armed interventions” policy, nor would such a policy be very credible from them.

  16. AW and R&D

    Thanks for posts 1016 and earlier. Quite interesting. In other words 2015 could be a long series of negotiations followed by arguments followed by negotiations again before reverting to another election.

  17. BILL Pt
    Oh, I thought the decision against the Govt’s invitation to support armed intervention in Syria, and the backing away from Blair’a justification of the invasion of Iraq are clear indicators of Labour foreign policy.
    I don’t disagree, though, that this is as much “liberal” as “socialist”, and overlaps with the LD of pre-2010 times in being social democratic, and on that basis supporting the social chapter of the EU. Hence the movement of 30 to 35% of 2010 LD voters to Labour.
    Where I hope EM’s pragmatism will come into play will be in opposing bad economics, including CAP and removing from the Commision much of the financing of regional equalisation through the use of Structural Funds.

  18. @GUYMONDE
    ” a formula –… – which assesses the rate for the job against comparable jobs in the outside world.”
    There are no such comparable jobs. Nor is there a job description for an MP.
    What is a solution? Most MPs have offices or surgeries in the major towns in their constituencies, and represent some 60,000 voters. Put coin slots in the doors and see if they get £60,000 per year. Any donations not in coin or not anonymous to go to charity.

  19. For what it is worth, the person on charge of the company I work for (Turnover £ 80 m, 140 employees, get about $360,000).

    That’s the overpaid private sector….

  20. @Guy Monde – My first thought was right then! You shouldn’t have listened to the dogs.

  21. Hart in Sussex Has just been declared then UK’s most desirable place to live for the Second Year Running

    Ah Yes the British Stepford .

    A faux Village fit only for Merchant Bankers and Property Speculators where naff all ever happens ,couldn’t imagine anywhere worse to live .

    Can’t believe Luton missed out again!

  22. CATMANJEFF

    For what it is worth, the person on charge of the company I work for (Turnover £ 80 m, 140 employees, get about $360,000).
    That’s the overpaid private sector….

    -For What it’s worth the Chief Executive of My Wifes NHS trust, the best paid one in the Country, gets around £50,000 less than that assuming you meant $’s, with a budget of £600 million and 8500 staff. Or about One Fifteenth of the Pay of a CEO in the private sector in a similar sized organisation.

    My wife, just 3 Steps down the management food chain, earns less in a Year than CEO’s do in a week .

    BTW It normally ranks best in Clinical outcome of Any major Trust in the UK.

  23. catmanjeff

    If you think that is overpaid have a look at some of the salaries in the Public sector.

  24. I think it is a great pity that we seem to have adopted the concept that we must have a referendum before constitutional changes like electoral reform. When Labour first mooted the idea of a referendum in the British system to get over their split cabinet position over Europe in 1975 it was seen as an unfortunate “one off”. Before the 1970s the very idea of referendums was seen as “foreign” and un-British. We always regarded it as the duty of our MPs to debate and decide matters in parliament without endless referendums whose results are frequently distorted by press disinformation.

    The merits of electoral reform should and could be decided by MPs and could be regarded as legitimate provided the system was changed gradually and in an evolutionary way. I don’t see why we would need a referendum if say 90% of MPs were still to be elected by FPTP but with say a 10% PR d’Hondt top-up list by county (perhaps double counties, as they are rather small?) to iron out the effects of differential turnout etc – the current Scottish Parliamentary electoral method could be used with a 90/10 split. It wouldn’t be pure PR, but it would iron out the differential turnout problem between Con and Lab, and give LDs and UKIP the odd seat here and there.

    I don’t believe parties have DNA-type views on this or any other issue. It is amazing how events change minds, and hearts!

  25. Lets reopen the mines in this country then we will be in control of our energy supplies again and be happy again..

  26. TOH

    With the exception of some of the banking regulators and I suppose the BBC if you consider that part of the Public sector the highest pay of any individual in the Public Sector is the chief executive of the NHS on around £260,000

    There are no public sector employees on over £300,000

    There are over 10,000 people in the City of London alone earning more than that.

    Have a happy Christmas!

  27. @TOH

    Which salaries in the public sector did you have in mind?

    @DAVE

    There are not identical jobs in the outside world but there are certainly comparable ones (though comparison isn’t straighforward). Going back to the original question, I’d say a GP is not a bad comparator.

    There are of course formal ‘job-sizing’ methods out there – not that I have a lot of faith in them – which are used in large organisations.

    Turning MP’s into (in effect) beggars doesn’t seem much of a solution to me.

  28. Godfrey Bloom in today’s Guardian says that UKIP is in the grip of an internal struggle:

    “I would never have agreed to it [a deal with the Conservative Party], on a matter of principle – so I had to go…. And, the deal has already now been done.”

    The report goes on to say: “He’s unclear on its precise details, but certain that Farage’s reward for standing down Ukip candidates in key seats is a title and a seat in the House of Lords.”

  29. @BILLYBOB

    Must be true if it’s in the G!

  30. Just finished listening to Jimmy Carter’s Crisis of Confidence speech, inspired by this week’s Crash Course video. Serious and well-delivered, and most of all honest. Unfortunately for him, nobody wanted to hear it. I urge you all to listen and consider what he says!

    That interview with Mr. Bloom was an interesting one. He seems to believe some rather contradictory things.

  31. Prediction for the last poll of the year ( ST YG)

    I reckon.

    Labour 38%

    Tory 35%

    UKIP 11%

    LD 11%

  32. Guymonde

    There are lots and I cannot be bothered to do a lot of research but if you just take GP’s then there are 10 earning over £300,000 and one earning £475,000.

  33. I’ll go for 36, 36, 12, 12 and a nervous Christmas for all politicians.

  34. Con 37%
    Lab 36%
    Lib 8%
    UKIP 11%

    Ooh controversy.

  35. Labour to have a seven point lead on the last Yougov of the year.

    Labour in the 37%-40% bracket.

    Polldrums!

  36. @TOH

    Technically of course GPs are not in the public sector – the relatively few salaried GPs that are public employees earn an average of <£50K from employment and about £15K from self-employment.
    The ones who are earning megabucks are contractors – in effect small businesses – running a practice and usually a dispensary, as well as in many cases taking private patients.
    So that is not a good example.
    It is true that some local govt chief execs, chief constables and the like earn very high salaries. This is down to benchmarking against (initially) private sector 'equivalents' and latterly against other public sector employees.
    Personally I believe pay at the top of both the public and private sectors is far too high and a real issue for our social fabric.

  37. I’ll go for lab 39 con 33 lib 10 Ukip 12

  38. Its a seven-wuff lead folks.

  39. Those are might fine canine predictors of polls Rosie and Daisie.

  40. “Those are might fine canine predictors of polls Rosie and Daisie.”

    red rag

    We guarantee them to be wuffly accurate.

  41. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 20th December – Con 34%, Lab 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 11%; APP -26

    Polldrums indeed

  42. Good Morning All.
    JIM JAM: Morning to you, awful rain here. Labour is doing better than I anticipated twelve months ago.

  43. “Four-ohh… four-ohh!…

    Four-ohh, where exactly are you now?…

    FOUR-OHH??!!”

    “Four-ohh. Picked up a party of Lib Dems… on my way to Downing Street.”

    “Roger four-ohh… let me know how how you get on with that. Make sure they don’t do a runner this time.”

  44. boring old 5 point lead

  45. Why would anyone be driving a full double decker bus to Downing Street?

  46. Labour pleased with 6 point lead
    Tories pleased with their improvment in the managing the economy question 41% now saying well.
    Otherswise polldrums as said above.

  47. “boring old 5 point lead”

    Except it’s six points.

    Much more interesting.

  48. Labour sign off the year with a 40% VI and a six point lead, and it’s interesting to see that an ICM poll published almost exactly a year ago to the day (23/12/12), had the Tories and Labour more or less the same (Lab 40 Con 32).

    12 months of political water under the bridge (an economic recovery with both unemployment and inflation falling, an EU Referendum pledge, clampdowns on immigration and benefit claimants, Labour and Unite shenanigans in Falkirk, council tax freezes etc etc) and very little has changed in the polls. Labour maintains a solid if unspectacular lead and the UKIP cuckoo still resides the political nest. The only thing that has really changed is that we’re 12 months nearer the next General Election.

    I sense Tory sympathisers still think the economic recovery and Miliband’s alleged unelectability will eventually lift them off the political rocks and sweep them to victory in May 2015. Essentially it’s the “it will be all right on the night” strategy but I’m wondering if it may be lapsing them into dangerous complacency. The roots of their enduring lack of electoral appeal may lie deeper than they think and could well be relatively impervious to events normally politically beneficial to parties in Government. It’s little wonder that these polls are spooking some of the more thinking Conservatives.

    A Merry Christmas to all my readers.

  49. There are not identical jobs in the outside world but there are certainly comparable ones (though comparison isn’t straighforward). Going back to the original question, I’d say a GP is not a bad comparator.

    -GP’s aren’t public sector employees they are self employed contractors.

    The average pay for NHS employed Doctors,primarily hospital based is around £57,000.

  50. Chris,

    Best Wishes to you and I trust you are enjoying the chess?

    I think in truth the solidity or otherwise of Labours YG 38% apparent base line will not be properly tested until 2015.

    The Con VI will continue to oscillate within a wider range depending on the UKIP ebb and flow.

    I would not be surprised at a run of of Westminster YGs below 30 just after the Euro Elections but it wont alter my view that much post 2010 UKIP will return at the GE to the Cons.

    The most encouraging part of the UKIP ‘phenomenon’ for reds is that ensuring/maximising the ‘Kippy Tory’ returnees (thanks spearmint) makes it harder for the cons to attract centrist voters.

    We disgagree re LD collapse of course.

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