YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun this morning had topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%. The five point Labour lead is pretty typical of what YouGov have been showing over the last fortnight. The full tabs are here.

Meanwhile Populus’s twice-weekly poll has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 8%. Full tabs are here. This is the last Populus poll of the year. For YouGov there is one still to come (the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll) then they too stop for the Christmas period.


166 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. The “Who does the Xmas work?” answers suggest that we have some major relationship problems going on! Almost everyone reckons they dough more work than their spouse.

    AW. Could this be selection bias in the polling? Are the bone idle spouses too bone idle to respond to polls?

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  2. @Jim Jam

    I would say it’s the LibDems and Labour in the firing line of UKIP at the moment. at least according to the latest council by-election results.

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  3. Perhaps AW or some of our statistically minder correspondents can answer this has the Conservative Support in the last 3 Years ever exceeded their 2010 GE figure?

    Has Labour support dropped below Conservatives in the last 3 Years

    I think (not sure) that the answer to both is No .

    Would any of these levels of support have equated to anything other than a Labour overall majority?

    The Question then would be if it hasn’t happened in the last 3 Years why should it happen in the next 18 months?

    I am sure team Miliband would be reasonably happy with a 40% poll.

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  4. Good morning all.

    @Lefty. On a different planet that look at trends in graphs using the same pollster quite a bit has changed over 12 months, even if most of it occurred early on.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

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  5. Phil

    Your table isn’t quite up-to-date. The latest poll – today’s – makes a bit of a difference to the “quite a bit has changed” scenario.

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  6. Wolf – you may be right but still come the GE…..

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  7. @Norbold
    It would be good if AW could add in the last 4 results of 2012, although collectively I don’t think they really change the picture. Overall, the Lab lead has declined somewhat since the end of 2012 even though the current trend has been static for some time.

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  8. “Going back to the original question, I’d say a GP is not a bad comparator.”

    Why, though? No training or qualifications required to be an MP and no potentially life-changing decisions to be taken as an individual.

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  9. @ Steve

    There is a handy graph on the latest voting intention figure ‘more’ which shows this did briefly happen at the start of 2012- Tories ahead of labour and over 40%. Plus at the start of the parliament both those scenarios were true for about 6 months.

    That is my only doubt about the likelihood of a Lab overall majority because there was a circumstance then where it did happen. The rise of UKIP since makes this less likely but, I guess, not impossible with events over the next year.

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  10. Regarding MPs pay why don’t we use international comparisons?
    How much does a US congressperson earn or a German MP

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  11. “Regarding MPs pay why don’t we use international comparisons?
    How much does a US congressperson earn or a German MP”

    Here’s some comparisons:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/datablog/2013/jul/11/mps-pay-uk-foreign-compared

    Looks like current pay is the lower end of normal.

    @ROGERH

    “Why, though? No training or qualifications required to be an MP and no potentially life-changing decisions to be taken as an individual.”

    OK then, compare them to an investment banker :p
    Seriously, I want dedicated. professional MPs who only work as MPs.

    Pay in this country (and I think around the world) is barking mad so you have to put some kind of peg in the ground, unless you think we can go to ‘from each according to their abilities, to each according to their needs’.

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  12. PS apologies to pups – any slur to barking is unintended.

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  13. gm

    “PS apologies to pups – any slur to barking is unintended.”

    wuff.

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  14. Christ, given the pay gap we could lose our politicians to other countries pay more…

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  15. New thread…

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