The monthly ComRes phone poll for the Indy is out tonight and shows almost no change from last month. Topline figures are CON 32%(nc), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 10%(-1). ComRes also asked people what was most important to them about the economy in the coming years. Top came ensuring economic growth on 41%, following by increasing wages above the rate prices rise (25%), keeping down inflation (17%) and cutting the deficit (12%).

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%. It looks as if yesterday’s 2 point lead was indeed a blip, though today’s may be the same: the average in YouGov polls since the Autumn statement is a Labour lead of around about 5 points, so the two point lead and today’s eight point lead look like outliers in opposite directions.

With ComRes’s poll done, we’ve had all of the regular monthly polls from ComRes, MORI and ICM and we’re headed towards the Christmas break. YouGov don’t poll over Christmas, so will come to a halt this weekend. I’m not sure whether or not Populus or Opinium will continue over the holidays.


197 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 32, LAB 37, LD 9, UKIP 10”

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  1. “Amber and Old Nat’s epic battles”

    The only really serious “epic battles” are between those who largely agree but differ over a single issue.

    I’m sure that I must have quoted the example of the Scottish Secessionist Kirks before. Doctrinally very similar, we had the
    Auld Licht Burghers
    New Licht Burghers
    Auld Licht Anti-Burghers
    New Licht Anti-Burghers

    all in bitter dispute.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Burgher

    Amber and I have just updated the debate a little. I prefer my burger with equal portions of French, German and English mustard, while Amber prefers to have hers with a significantly greater English mustard component. :-)

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  2. @R Huckle – Not to my knowledge.

    @Rich :))

    @Norbold – I’m an active voter and will be until me faculties lay waste to my vote-casting abilities. I err on the side of tactical or protest vote, rather than spoil, but there’s plenty time and more than plenty reason to wait and see.

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  3. So basically a bunch of silly Burghers.

    “I prefer my burger with equal portions of French, German and English mustard” – Ahh, the ‘go large’ option. Does it come with a side order of privatise or nationalise?

    I’ll have the fish.

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  4. Mustard – yeuch! :-)

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  5. @catmanjeff – So I was wrong (last time I did anything of this sort was 2011 or 2012) and should apologise. There is a negative correlation between the size of the con vote and that of the labour one. Even more striking is the size of the negative correlation between UKIP and both major parties. UKIP doing well is even more of a predictor of a relatively low labout V! than it is of a low Conservative one. As, however, UKIP doing well does not do any favours for the conservatives either there may be less of an implication for the difference between labour and conservative from a UKIP revival or decline than might have been thought. Anyway thanks for a very interesting set of figures and a lesson to me not to darken counsel without knowledge,

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  6. STATGEEK

    Haddock or cod?

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  7. Amber

    I know how you feel, but this is democracy.

    Mustard is one of the limited options available on your burger, and FPTP means you need to select one only (or possibly a coalition of them).

    Rejecting all of them probably puts you in the Siol nan Giadheal camp. I understand they only add Arran mustard to their burgers.

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  8. @R HUCKLE

    What’s the point of spoiling a ballot paper? Why not just stay at home? This is a genuine question not a criticism.

    I did once, when I was young, confused and alienated. Just thought ‘I’m against the lot of you’ and spoiling the paper gives a message. A bit like when people ask for a none of the above option. Of course it’s pretty pointless but it made me feel better :-)

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  9. R HUCKLE

    “What’s the point of spoiling a ballot paper? Why not just stay at home?”

    I normally spoil my Co-op ballot paper – but I do that at home. None of the candidates ever seem to represent my views, and it makes that point (if rather uselessly!)

    It should be worth registering active disdain for all the candidates, as opposed to simply ignoring them.

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  10. @Catmanjeff – The negative partial correlation between conservatives and labour with UKIP held constant is considerable (I have calculated it at ..66 but long experience has taught me to distrust my calculations profoundly unless they are done by computer!). Anyway it must be quite large. This suggests to me that if UKIP settled down to some kind of core vote and stuck there Labour and Conservatives would be in a two horse race and fighting over many of the same people. What do you make of all these figures you have produced?

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  11. The full figures for COMRES are LAB 37% CON 32% UKIP 10% LD 9% GRN 5%. So, again, why aren’t other pollsters such as YouGov picking up higher Green scores? 18% of the 18-24 group and 13% of 2010 LD voters are said to be part of that reason in the COMRES poll, so with these higher scores regularly featuring across several polls such as Ipsos as well, it seems strange for me to see the Greens put at 2-3% and never any higher by YouGov etc.

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  12. @ Old Nat

    I’m a vegetarian – are burgers really compulsory? ;-)

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  13. AMBER

    LOL

    Soya burgers are available – though you may have to go to the Green menu for them. It’s not a bad menu btw!

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  14. Reasons for spoiling a ballot paper –

    – No satisfactory candidate, in which case it’s registering an ‘active abstention’ where not voting looks like you just forgot.

    – Mistake. Either you absentmindedly fill in two boxes or something, or your mark is illegible.

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  15. Good Evening All. OFSTED came a calling to sing Carols with us for two days, the last days of term.

    Simon Hughes must be pleased to have joined the Government. What a career he had had.

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  16. Survation responds to criticism of its methods:

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/18/survation-defends-it-methodology-against-lord-ashcroft-john-rentoul-and-yougovs-anthony-wells/

    this was quite interesting

    “Secondly and perhaps more importantly, we have reason to believe that there is a substantial degree of false recall going on in these telephone polls when people are asked who they voted for in the last election. In every constituency we have polled so far, the proportion of people saying they voted UKIP in 2010 was higher than the actual recorded percentage from the last election. I cannot think of a plausible reason why, after having corrected for age, gender and ward, we would actually have over-sampled past UKIP voters so significantly and so consistently”

    The how to count UKIP and which pollsters are right and which ones are wrong continues…

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  17. @TOH “As I have said to the point of boring others on here I expect a drop in Labour support of probably 8 points by the time of the election as voters realise the choice they face. You may not like that answer but that’s what i think and expect. We will see who is right in 2015″

    Yeah, you are absolutely right.

    We didn’t like that answer.

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  18. Bit of a bugger at Castle Crofty where the burger and mustard hilarity has got us falling over wuffing and larfing.

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  19. @Charles

    The data came from the CORREL function on Libre Office (I cheat and don’t do manual calculations unless I have to.)

    What does the data mean?

    Here is a guide to what each correlation coefficient broadly means:

    Value of r ————- Strength of relationship

    -1.0 to -0.5 or 1.0 to 0.5 – Strong
    -0.5 to -0.3 or 0.3 to 0.5 – Moderate
    -0.3 to -0.1 or 0.1 to 0.3 – Weak
    -0.1 to 0.1 ———— None or very weak

    The standard error is based on the sample size. If the correlation is similar to the standard error, you cannot be certain of a definite relationship. It could just be noise. Given the SE is 0.06 at the worst, a fraction of the coefficient, we can we happy that each correlation is not noise.

    You can also use confidence intervals. The CI level is the minimum coefficient required to be confident it is statistically significant. As all the coefficients exceed the level required for the 1% CI, we be sure they are statistically significant.

    Essentially, both the 1% CI and the SE show the same thing – the relationships are more than random noise.

    The strongest correlations are Lab to UKIP @ -0.584 and Con to UKIP @ -0.434. We are 99% confident that the relationships are significant, being strong Lab to UKIP and moderate Con to UKIP. UKIP have taken votes from both Labour and the Conservatives to a fair degree.

    LD to UKIP is @ -0.223, Con to Lab @ -0.229 – i.e. both are quite weak, confirming that movement these ways is modest.

    The Con to LD is @ -0.358 (moderate). The Lab to LD is positive @ 0.190 (weak) – i.e. when Labour increase, the LDs do a little. Is there a cycle of Labour and the Liberal Democrats picking up when the “right” parties decrease, the term used carefully?

    I think it hints that there is some degree of Lab/LD vs Con/UKIP. If this is true, the it seems to me that the broad electorate who still support the Liberal Democrats might accept the Coalition, but perhaps are not as cosy with it as the leadership.

    Of course, this is just my interpretation. Don’t put your mortgage on it!

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  20. @windsofchange

    “So, again, why aren’t other pollsters such as YouGov picking up higher Green scores?”

    I’m starting to think that past vote weighting causes some polling companies to miss the rise of ‘other’ parties. Could it be ‘other’ voters didn’t bother to vote last time, so get filtered out that way?

    But then I would expect Survation, who seem to be most accurate on the rise of UKIP so far would also be showing higher numbers for greens if they were also showing some sort of gain, and I can’t see anything there.

    I also see the green voters are amongst the least likely to vote even when they do get above 5% on the odd poll.

    Hopefully the Euro elections next year will give us a better indication on what the true level of Green support is. If they do well then people may decide they are not a wasted vote after all, and with the current anti politics mood that may translate into an increase in 2015 share.

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  21. I’ve just been looking at the YouGov EU poll trailed in The Sun.

    It’s not as negative for those wanting to keep a role in the EU might have thought.

    If that poll represents opinion without any meaningful defence of the EU in our media, then it would be winnable by either side. the number undecided exceeds the gap between in and out in most questions.

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  22. @Richard

    It makes for interesting reading. The 2010 vote weighting does make sense, although there is perhaps grounds to reduce, rather than remove the weighting.

    I imagine the false recall will be due to the usual people not wanting to admit they voted for a losing party, but probably with some people shifting to Lib and back to Lab since, they perhaps are more reluctant to admit they voted Lib.

    I’m curious on the high percentage of DK / Refused. Might those planning to vote UKIP be more reticent, given the criticism that UKIP and their supporters tend to attract?

    Regarding the prompt for UKIP, I feel it should be included, given that UKIP are now polling third nationally without prompting. Oh and weekly Farage ratings would be fun too – with more regular ratings will come scrutiny. If they are to gain more votes, I’d much rather UKIP got more votes despite extra scrutiny, than by protest. Would their ‘protest vote’ drop if they are include as one of the ‘main four’?

    Do polling companies prompt for SNP or PC in the appropriate regions?

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  23. Anybody seen the book face poll on how Leftie you are?

    Just a bit of fun.

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  24. @CMJ

    Based on staring at calendar month charts (new hobby suggestions welcome!), I see the following across the regions.

    London: Lib and UKIP gain from Con drops, while Lib and UKIP gain from Lab drops. Con doesn’t tend to gain from Lab, but Lab did gain from Con around the omni-shambles / pasty tax.

    RoS: Similar to London, but Con can gain from Lab. Again the big Con drops of early 2012 benefited Lab.

    M&W: Seems to be a free-for-all.

    North: Easy for Lab to takes votes off all others, but UKIP can take votes off all too. Easy for Con to lose votes quickly, but struggle to regain them.

    Scotland: More difficult to explain, as there seems to be all manner of protest votes shifting around. Pretty much all parties take from each other, but Con/Lab or Lab/Con shifts are rare. In the omni / pasty tax period, the Con losses went to SNP, UKIP and Lib, and that’s the most severe Con issue in the past 2-3 years. UKIP to Lib shifts are pretty non-existent too.

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  25. @catmanjeff – I agree that the strong (negative) correlations are between UKIP and Conservative V! on the one hand and UKIP and Labour on the other. I was pointing out that the existence of these correlations diminishes the negative correlation between the Conservative and Labour V! both of which tend to rise or fall in response to the UKIP vote in a way which, other things being equal, would make them positively correlated. The negative Con Labour correlation therefore becomes much stronger and more significant if the UKIP VI is held constant. (I tried to write out formula but can’t do subscripts etc in this box)

    I was wondering what political sense if any you thought might be made of that.

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  26. @Statgeek

    According to this, yes Yougov does prompt for the national parties

    http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/methodology/

    I remember seeing a screenshot a few months ago where someone said they only prompt where applicable – so someone in Scotland would see SNP and not PC, and England would see neither.

    It says there “Past experience has shown us that prompting for smaller parties in the main question overestimates their level of support when compared to actual elections”

    and I wonder if that is because smaller parties don’t stand in so many seats, so people often don’t have the opportunity to vote for them even if they prefer them? I suspect UKIP at least are going to stand in most places at the next election, so I agree for them at least it doesn’t make sense any longer to not prompt for them.

    But maybe it is the case that when people don’t think their small party stands a chance, they either don’t bother to vote, or use their vote to vote against another party instead, so the lack of a prompt adjusts for that effect.

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  27. chrislane1945

    Anybody seen the book face poll on how Leftie you are?
    ___

    Yeah not a bad read.

    http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/2915/3003/320/laboursleazead1320.0.jpg

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  28. Greens did well in the 2013 locals… giving LDs more than a run for their money in some places.

    According to AndyJS’s spreadsheet over 200k votes (3.54%), which given that they contested fewer than 40% of wards is quite impressive:

    h
    ttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHBJLWkxVDlsdHZXMnFTQjNDUEE2MGc#gid=0

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  29. Slightly off topic.

    I don’t get the Tories, in one hand Cameron wants to make it tough for EU migrants coming into the UK and claiming benefits and half the party want out of the EU yet in the other hand they are taking sides with the opposition in the Ukraine who want to join the EU.

    Cameron should thank Moscow for pinching Kiev and sparing us another 44 million potential East European migrants coming to the UK.

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  30. Protesters in Ukraine want a true democracy and it’s entirely plausible and logical for even Eurosceptics (eg UKIPpers for instance) to support their stance of wanting to get into the EU for this.

    Getting back even more under Russia’s thumb means authoritarianism (and no true voice for ordinary people) increases albeit with a sham democracy.

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  31. @Billy Bob

    Yes, I think the greens will surprise in next years Euro elections. I was very impressed by their support of the Nigerian hunger striker Isa Muazu who was shamefully deported yesterday and noted the silence from other supposedly progressive parties.

    As all the main parties converge with UKIP into the upper right quadrant (Authoritarian right) of this test that many of us did a few days ago

    http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010

    Note which party is the only party left in the left libertarian quadrant – the greens.

    But strangely most people on this board do not appear to be green voters even though nearly everyone landed in that square…

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  32. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “I don’t get the Tories”

    Unfortunately, you do, as do we all. Not the Murdo style ones you would probably prefer to have, of course.

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  33. ALLAN CHRISTIE.
    Thanks for the link.

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  34. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back down to four points: CON 34%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%

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  35. oldnat

    ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “I don’t get the Tories”

    Unfortunately, you do, as do we all. Not the Murdo style ones you would probably prefer to have, of course
    ________

    That’s probably true, I don’t mind Murdo and wee Bella when she was around.

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  36. chrislane1945

    No problem ;-)

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  37. Richard
    “…As all the main parties converge with UKIP into the upper right quadrant (Authoritarian right) of this test that many of us did a few days ago

    http://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010…”

    I’ve been away for a while doing other things, but just done this test. I think I’ve seen it before, but this time I’m in the top-right quadrant but to the left and more libertarian than Miliband, though he is the closest of the leaders mentioned. Strange – he is the last one I would vote for out of the current crop. One thing about the quiz was it didn’t ask about competence in politicians, and that is one of the main reasons for my voting choices.

    In the bigger picture (and I apologise if this has been raised before), do people think that the rise of UKIP has dragged the other parties in their direction?

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  38. @Pete B

    I don’t think, but I think UKIP is forcing other parties to confront issues that they would rather avoid (Blair generally avoided the EU issue, while criticising the Conservatives for being divided on it, but Blair also avoided the rise of UKIP).

    Here’s the UKPR effort for the compass:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/pol-com.png

    Note that the parties are placed according to 2010 estimates. Note the ‘current UK MAD VI’ and 2010 dots in green. That was an attempt by me to estimate where the voting electorate were in 2010, and are at present according to party VI (based on 2010 party estimates…so all a little inaccurate).

    It does suggest that due to more people supporting UKIP, and less supporting the Lib Dems, we have an electorate shift to a more authoritarian (and slightly more right-wing economically) stance.

    Whether that’s the case, I have no idea, but it’s an interesting thing to mull over.

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  39. Erm… First sentence…I don’t think so, but etc…

    (( Awaits agreement on not thinking ))

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  40. “I don’t think, but I think ”

    statty

    That has a sort of inscrutable, Buddha-like sense of wisdom about it.

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  41. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “I don’t get the Tories”

    You’ll get them again if enough people vote that way in 2015.

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  42. I think, therefore I vote. (That’s not bad!)

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  43. The Mirror is rather strident in its headline today. Wonder if the food bank debate will become a big thing? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BbzTrYMCQAA36Ef.png:large

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  44. I think, therefore I thunk.

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  45. @Richard
    I remember a while back an electoral society poll for the Euros with a sample size of thousands of people which put the Greens on 12%, 2% ahead of the Lib Dems. Adjusted for others, the Greens were still left with 10.5% nationally. If I remember correctly, should this actually be realised, the Greens will see a net gain of 4 MEPs, up to 6. Though that’s a 200% rise, the Greens were less than 1% off of winning a few more seats last time, and that 10.5% is about a 2% national rise I believe. It’s a shame the d’Hondt method wasn’t in use back in the 80s when the Greens had a breakthrough 15% and won no seats so were seen as not worth voting for any more- talk about the suppression of non-mainstream parties!

    For quite a few weeks now, COMRES/Ipsos and to some extent Opinium as well have been showing the Greens at 4-5%, with MORI showing them at 7% a few weeks ago. A while back YouGov consistently put them at 3% and now puts them at 2% with the occasional 3- as if they are sliding backwards, which directly contradicts the findings of quite a few other polls. When you see that YouGov is only picking up support for the Greens among the 18-24 group at an average of 6% when again other polls show them at 10%+, support among 2010 LD voters again around 6% when other polls show closer to 10%, support among 2010 Labour voters at 1% when the others show around 3%, much lower C2DE support than the other polls, it just doesn’t seem right. I mean the other day, a YouGov poll showed UKIP beating the Greens in the 18-24 group by a factor of 2 and beating the Greens by a large margin in the 24-35 group, which is simply not appearing- or at least to nowhere as large a scale- in several other polls. When I see YouGov publishing 3 page summaries with the other pollsters publishing pages upon pages of tables, details, adjustments for 2010 vote, adjustment for those likely to vote etc in a detailed, easy-to-follow way, with breakdowns for more specific regions and demographics, it makes me wonder whether I should take any notice of YouGov in the tracking of the Green’s progress.

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