Sunday Polls

There were three voting intention polls in this morning’s papers, topline figures are below:

Opinium/Observer – CON 30%(+2), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 16%(-3)
ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 29%(nc), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 18%(+1)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%

Tabs for ComRes are here, tabs for YouGov are here.


255 Responses to “Sunday Polls”

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  1. @ Paul,

    You mean you don’t read Rosie’s and Daisie’s posts? Shame on you! They are very droll.

  2. I really want to comment particularly on the views of Chris Riley and the other
    Howard,both of whom I sympathise with to a certain extent.But,I think it would
    Be sensible if I did not.We shall just have to wait and see .

  3. Paul Croft

    I must start reading yours too, then.

  4. Spearmint

    Not great for Labour but to equate it with what the outcomes indicated are I think they would not be too upset as Great Yarmouth and C&N are both in the 70+ on the target seat list.

    I cannot think Folkestone or Bognor Regis are on the radar of anyone in Labour HQ. They were even well beaten here in 97

    I find it strange that all polls are coming with the assumption that when Labour are ahead it is automatically wrong and that the Tories will come back to win everywhere – it assumes that the polling organisations learnt nothing from 92. UKIP are difficult to assess their impact on the GE but nothing I see looks good for the Tories

  5. Poor Lib Dems, I remember Charles Kennedy claiming they would take Folkestone and Hythe in 2005 and now they’re polling a distant fourth.

    If I was a Lab/Lib voter in Folkestone and Hythe, I’d be prepared to tactically vote UKIP on the grounds that UKIP aren’t going to form a government and a UKIP MP might be amusing.

  6. Oh, and here’s my score for the silly compass thingie:

    Economic Left/Right: -6.62
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18

    So, farther left than Gandhi or the Dalai Lama, but still sufficiently rightwing that Mr. Nameless, Guymonde, Catman, Norbold and Shev may have me shot as a counter-revolutionary.

    Ah well, at least I know they’ll come for TOH first.

  7. @Spearmint

    Thanks for the link, very interesting.

    @BCrombie

    Not great for Labour but to equate it with what the outcomes indicated are I think they would not be too upset as Great Yarmouth and C&N are both in the 70+ on the target seat list.

    I disagree. Among those seats the Con to Lab swings are: 12%, 10%, 9.5% and 12.5%.

    If Labour average an 11% from the Conservatives, Mr Miliband will be skipping up Downing Street with stonking majority.

  8. @ Bcrombie

    nothing I see looks good for the Tories

    Yup. That’s why they were # 1 on the doomed list. As for Labour, I’m sure they’ll take a narrow victory in a new three-way Lab/Ukip/Tory marginal if that’s what on offer, but they might prefer a solid mandate. Ah well, whatever gets you through the door of Number 10, as Nick Clegg likes to say.

    @ Mr. Nameless,

    If I was a Lab/Lib voter in Folkestone and Hythe, I’d be prepared to tactically vote UKIP on the grounds that UKIP aren’t going to form a government and a UKIP MP might be amusing.

    I thought that too, but then I realised it would mean Nigel Farage would be on Question Time every other week instead of just once a month. The lulz would wear off quickly but the aggravation would last five years.

  9. mr minty

    “@ Paul,

    You mean you don’t read Rosie’s and Daisie’s posts? Shame on you! They are very droll.”

    Yes they’re quite clever for girls.

    They usually wuff and larf what they are posting anyway. They seem to think its dead funny so I just go along with it.

    Ole Rosie was curled up on the sofa with me today and after I got up to practice the classical guitar she woke up, got up and curled up by my feet on the floor.

    Either she’s a big fan of 19th century Spanish guitar music or its love and loyalty to her dad

  10. @SPEARMINT”

    Can’t see it’s bad for Labour – four Tory seats and two of them predicted to go to Labour.

  11. @Spearmint – “Labour: losing substantial numbers of voters to Ukip in marginals where it counts”

    Even so Labour are up on average something like 8.5% since 2010 in these four seats.

    Big numbers for 2010 Con “undecideds” in some of these polls… hoping that the Con/UKIP tussle will resolve itself by 2015?

  12. Catmanjeff

    “Among those seats the Con to Lab swings are: 12%, 10%, 9.5% and 12.5%.£

    And we have people here who will not accept UNS. Hmm.

    Don’t forget AW’s health warning on party-commissioned polls of course.

  13. Great Yarmouth. 74th on Lab target list. Lab 7% ahead (of UKIP).

    Crewe and Nantwich. 87th on Lab target list. Lab 13% ahead (of Con).

    Both results point to a solid Lab majority. And there’s also evidence that the Conservatives would only close the gap very slightly in the absence of UKIP candidates.

    What these polls and the previous ones are doing is providing evidence that at present Lab is ahead in the marginals that will determine the outcome of the GE, at least in those where UKIP most fancies its chances.

  14. My political compass

    Economic Left/Right: -6.50
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.69

    So closest to Greens – which is pretty much the case.

  15. @Howard

    I do not imagine an 11 % swing Con to Lab is realistic for a moment (if it happens, it would extraordinary).

    Still, even with AW’s cautionary provisos, these polls may be giving Lynton Crosby food for thought.

  16. Catmanjeff

    Swing A to B is the net effect of all the rest of what’s happening.

    I accept it – are you ‘frit’ or something?

    :-)

  17. OldNat

    I didn’t get your bit about the Greens so I went back to have a look.

    I still don’t see where your score is described as Green (apart from that was the colour of the square).

    Expand and discuss?

  18. Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points – the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
    CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

  19. The Sun tweet a 2 point lead for Labour in today’s poll

  20. That’s a ‘cat among the pigeons’ poll.

    Within MoE though. Highest Con VI since 14th October (37).

    Compared to rounded MAD data it looks like Con +3, Lab -1, Lib -1, and UKIP -1.

  21. Hm. Lab still comfortably ensconced in Red Rag’s bracket. It’s just the Tories bouncing around from 28% to 36% and back more or less at random.

    Anyone have any thoughts about why the YouGov Tory VI figures are so volatile? Populus have them absolutely stable at 33% with barely a deviation- probably some of that is down to their wacky Ukip weighing, but still.

  22. Someone needs to do a breakdown of regional swing and figure out what’s what. UNS clearly isn’t useful if there’s a 13% Con>Lab swing in their 87th target.

  23. ”Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points – the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
    CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%”

    Don’t be fooled by leads, Rich. Labour are where they always are. Nothing changes.

  24. Interesting YG poll, somewhat counter to the earlier Populus.

    Also, I’m a little aghast at people saying the Survation constituency polls are somehow bad for Labour. If these polls are accurate (and that’s a big if, so here I’m talking more hypothetically) it surely shows Labour making some spectacular gains off Cons in blue seats way down Labour’s target list, while also showing that UKIP is not having a decisive counter balancing impact in Lab vs Con marginals.

    On top of that, in ‘safe’ Con seats that lie outwith Labour’s reach, the Con lead has narrowed so much that tactical voting could become a real headache, meaning the blues will have to devote significant resource to defending previously impregnable seats. The only reasonable reading of these polls is surely one of a disaster for the blues?

    The next question of course is whether these polls are indeed, accurate. There are clearly doubts, which AW has discussed, so I’m not banking on Folkstone becoming a marginal, but this news will be deeply unsettling for Tories.

    With FPTP, belief matters a good deal. Small parties can exploit the sense of mischief within the electorate, and I’m sure local papers will be covering these polls. These will also have an internal impact in party politics, with sympathetic journalists already claiming the Tory depression has returned.

  25. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/10519729/Christmas-cheer-yet-to-appear-for-retailers.html

    Another little snippet from the consumer end of the economy. Again, despite some pretty relentlessly optimistic reporting of the economy as a whole, we find some hard data suggesting consumers may well be in withdrawal mode. If these footfall figures presage a poor month in actual sales, I suspect we may begin to see the attention shift to a more negative view of the consumer side of the economy.

    If that does happen, I think it will be very interesting to watch the sentiment data from industry.

  26. I have a great deal of incredulity over the Allan Brown polls. It reeks of cherry picking constituencies to find ones where UKIP get within 10 points of a win, then claim this shows that UKIP have influence on “the marginals”.

  27. Tory depression can go away very quickly if good economic news and better polls come side-by-side.

    I am assuming that these constituency polls take a while to put together (I suppose I could just actually read them to get the sample dates, but I can’t be ar*ed). We had a brief spell of truly awful polling for the Tories, post “freeze”, which now appears to have abated. It may just be that Lord Ashcroft happened to dip his toe in the pool during a particularly chilly spell for the Tories.

    It is worrying for the Tories that any previously-perceived “marginals effect” seems to have been removed and possibly reversed, to their detriment. But the headline national polls are still what will make the political weather, and determine the psychological wellbeing of the right-leaning commentariat.

    If the polls were to get back to parity, and good growth data continues into the new year, peckers will be up.

  28. Economic Left/Right: 3.12
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 5.28
    Not close to anyone in particular and left of Em economically, which Is a surprise. Maybe I answered a Question or two incorrectly.

    Latest You Gov provides some cheer but probably an outlier.

    Merry Christmas to one and all.

  29. Sorry, not Ashcroft. The other fella wot pays for polls.

  30. There has been 35 YG polls since the Con 37 in October.

    Average Con VI has been about 33 since then. MOE is about 3.1, so given the 95% CI used, 1-2 polls should have been above 36 in that period, and 1-2 below 30

    This 36 is at the top of MOE, and none have been over. One poll (at 29) has been under MOE.

    Unless subsequent polls back this 36 up, it’s MOE for me until evidence shows otherwise.

    @Spearmint

    Labour’s VI beats like a heart on beta-blockers. Conservative VI seems to have it’s regular spasms.

    Given a stable methodology, I am utterly baffled why.

  31. @Jayblanc

    I have a great deal of incredulity over the Allan Brown polls. It reeks of cherry picking constituencies to find ones where UKIP get within 10 points of a win, then claim this shows that UKIP have influence on “the marginals”.

    The red team must hope you are wrong, and blue team are keen for you to be right…

  32. @MrNameless

    “If I was a Lab/Lib voter in Folkestone and Hythe, I’d be prepared to tactically vote UKIP on the grounds that UKIP aren’t going to form a government and a UKIP MP might be amusing.”.

    I’m sure that’s what German voters were saying in 1932: “I don’t like the socialists/communists/catholics [delete as appropriate for individual voters]; the NSDAP won’t form a government, and an NSDAP deputy might be amusing”.

    Don’t set snowballs rolling… you never know where they’ll finish up.

  33. Re Political Compass

    Where is everybody getting their ‘I am like Nelson Mandela’ stories from.
    I can’t find anything of the sort.

    It seems to be skewed to the left to me lots of -6s and -7s and nary a positive number over the 1s.

    I suspect If you headed due North from London using this compass you’d be wondering why you ended up in Oxford

  34. HOWARD

    Look at the panel on the left hand side. I can’t remember the actual wording, but there’s a section which allows you to see the placement of political parties in various countries on the scale.

    “UK Parties 2010” is one of the choices, and you’ll see the UK party grid by clicking on that.

  35. Seeing tweets of latest YG poll in GB –

    “CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%”

    Any basis for this?

  36. @Oldnat

    Could just be plain old MOE, unless this week’s polls show a similar change.

  37. CATMANJEFF

    I normally distrust tweets!

    I was really asking if anybody knew what the latest YG poll was.

  38. @Spearmint

    “Anyone have any thoughts about why the YouGov Tory VI figures are so volatile?”

    ——————-
    When Tories are up, Ukip is down, and vice versa

    Today: Tory 36, UKIP 11 (total 47)
    5 Dec Tory 29, UKIP 14 (total 43)
    28 Nov Tory 30, UKIP 15 (total 45)
    11 Dec Tory 35, UKIP 11 (total 46)

    So either people are switching between the two on a regular basis, or some days Yougov are picking up more people from UKIP strong areas like South Thanet, etc, and showing a strong UKIP number, then the next poll selects more people from UKIP weak areas like Crewe and show the Tories stronger.

  39. Oldnat – if its from the Sun Politics team (and it was) then its kosher (and it is)

  40. Tories on 36% is an obvious case of an odd sample. This is based on the polls over recent weeks, which show them nearer to 33%.

  41. Economic Left/Right: -7.88
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.79

    I’m astonished. I thought I was more authoritarian than that…

    I suspect that I’d have been a fair bit further right-ward on the economy half a decade ago, but some of my idle acceptance of the post-70s settlement has been knocked out of me since the crash.

    What gets me is how they managed to get the likes of Hu Zintao and Hitler to do the test. Didn’t they have more important things to be getting on with? ‘Course, I can understand why Cameron took the test – it’ll have given him a break from playing Angry Birds.

  42. Anthony

    Thanks.

    RICHARD

    I’m not sure that pollsters are actually geared up to deal with volatile political environments.

    Their methodology and weightings do seem to suggest that they anticipate a reasonably stable political environment.

    In the same way that Bob McKenzie’s cardboard swingometer dealt quite well with politics in the 60s, but even updated through modern graphics seems crude nowadays, could it be that the pollsters can’t distinguish new fault lines very accurately?

  43. Right folks. I’ll call a halt now. It’s getting hard to get all the folk on and any more will make it worse.

    Key:

    Blue – UKPR folk
    Red – Political Parties
    Green – Events
    Purple – Famous people

    Caveats:

    UKPR folk – Not all questions always make sense to people in the same way, so answers (and plotting) might not be representative (it’s just a bit of fun).

    Parties – Taken from the Compass site, so they apply to 2010 parties prior to the General Election. Coalitions, and changes of leadership might mean that party position has moved.

    Famous people – Taken from Compass or compasses done by others, and taken at face value. Treat with caution.

    Events – Based on the 2010 election, and the current MAD data, I applied the vote share only against each party coordinate and totted them up.

    e.g. Conservative 36.1% in 2010. The compass site has them at 8,6 on the graph, so I applied the VI share to each coordinate to get 2.62 and 1.97 and so on for each party. All parties down to SSP were applied (the coordinates go to 3rd decimal, while the SSP only applies to the 4th and 5th decimals, so they don’t affect the results).

    Then all the various results were totalled to give a GE 2010 X, Y coordinate. The same was done with the current MAD data. Con, Lab, Lib, UKIP and Green were treated as previously. The SNP was calculated at 26.5% (2.3% nationally). The BNP VI of the 2010 GE was cut in half to reflect polling of around 1% (half of GE 2010, and possible UKIP / Labour take-up of BNP voters since 2010. All the other smaller parties (Respect, SSP, PC) were given the same data as at 2010, due to no current data available to hand.

    So here’s the chart:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/pol-com.png

    Conclusions:

    1) In 2010, the nation voted quite closely to the compass point that is associated with Tony Blair.

    2) The current MAD VI suggests that the nation wants a more authoritarian government than Blair, and almost as authoritarian as Thatcher.

    3) Labour (2010) is more authoritarian than thatcher.

    4) Miliband is more right-wing than Blair or Brown (I couldn’t find Cameron’s predecessors, or Clegg for that matter).

    5) People perceive UKIP to be more right-wing than the Conservatives. Not so; they are more authoritarian.

    6) Cameron and Miliband are perceived to be less authoritarian than their parties (could this also be perceived as not being effective leaders?)

    6) UKPR is hoaching with lefties. :))

    7) Statgeek is obviously non-partisan (so there!)

  44. @AW – The results are in….in moderation. Bah!

  45. New thread.

  46. For what it’s worth, here’s someone else’s interpretation of the compass. You can take a peek of how you might be aligned (or viewed by others).

    http://www.golivewire.com/forums/img.cgi?s=149209

  47. That the Nazis appear to be left-wingers serves to demonstrate how useless it is.

  48. @Roger

    The Nazis were anti-communist and anti-capitalist. The name they took was to encompass the widest possible group of supporters. Real national socialism is a mix of communism and nationalism (think Pol Pot-lite or Stalin-lite…perhaps).

    Remember that the left/right in these compass graphs is economic left/right. If I were to place the Nazis on the compass, I would put them at 0,10, right at the top, in between nationalism and totalitarianism, and maximum authoritarian.

    “Hitler, when asked whether he supported the “bourgeois right-wing”, claimed that Nazism was not exclusively for any class, and indicated that it favoured neither the left nor the right, but preserved “pure” elements from both “camps”, stating: “From the camp of bourgeois tradition, it takes national resolve, and from the materialism of the Marxist dogma, living, creative Socialism”.”

    Or you can look to the other version of national socialism (imagine a world where the word Nazi never existed), and see a country of socialism, with plenty of patriotism and protectionism thrown in. North Korea perhaps?

    The constant in all this is the authoritarian aspect of these governments. In that sense, their left/right economic policies are generally left of centre, as they don’t tend to favour free (or more free than democracies) markets. Is modern China the exception?.

    I’m not one for reading deeply into ‘isms’. I find the pigeon holing of people or parties generally tedious, but it’s fun from time to time.

  49. The Nazis were in no sense left-wing. I’m not sure why you regard them as anti-capitalist. They were generally supportive of private ownership and the free market, unlike countries like North Korea.

  50. @Roger

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism#Anti-capitalism

    “Hitler distrusted capitalism for being unreliable due to its egotism, and he preferred a state-directed economy that is subordinated to the interests of the Volk.”

    Sounds like Stalin with a German accent.

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