Sunday Polls

There were three voting intention polls in this morning’s papers, topline figures are below:

Opinium/Observer – CON 30%(+2), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 16%(-3)
ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 29%(nc), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 18%(+1)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%

Tabs for ComRes are here, tabs for YouGov are here.

255 Responses to “Sunday Polls”

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  1. Econ. Left/Right -3.75
    Libertarian/Auth. -4.41

    Constituency described on here as “very safe Conservative seat” Order of parties last time

  2. TOH

    ” if I am wrong in my prediction I will post to say I got it wrong after the election in 2015 assuming I’m still here.”

    Not sure if you mean the forum or the world [the latter would presumably cover both]

    Either way I hope you are.

    I am however very suspicious of those who say things like

    When the voters are in the ballot box they will realise etc etc etc ”

    It is just too patently subjective and hopeful. Some may very well harbour those feelings and vote accordingly. The question for us to address is whether there is any polling evidence that this will happen; especially given the FPTP arithmetic which is crippling for the Tories,***

    *** As a straightforward equal votes supporter I have no sympathy for a party that is in favour of FPTP if it is hoist by its own petard [as we sailors say.]


    ps Have a great xmas/new year with your family and the same to everyone else.

  3. Howard

    Fair point, for the last 46 years I have lived in a Southern seat with a very large Tory majority, before that I lived in a Northern seat with an even larger Labour majority. I have to say I got more pleasure out of casting my vote in the north than I now do in the south as at least I was making a protest then.

  4. Virgilio
    You were missed.


    That fits nicely into Andrew Rawnsley’s hypothesis that the coalition will increasingly make their differences clear over the next year and a bit.

    The campaign will be new territory with the LDs in a position to talk about what the Tories would want to do if they governed alone.

    My view is that will do bugger all to help Clegg but will certainly frighten even just slightly left-leaning/middle-of-the-road voters away from Cameron.

    Given that the very best Cons could hope for is a tiny majority I wonder if the “vote Cameron get ????” will come into play, given that most of the ???? marks could be fairly unpopular.

  6. TOH

    I lived in a northern seat with a large Labour majority, my LD vote was just a protest. Now I live in a Southern seat with a LD MP and I might (same as a lot of friends here) have to vote tactically if there’s a danger of Lab getting in!

  7. rosieanddaisie

    As you know I have no great interest in opinion polls until just before the election so all the theories put forward on here to support the view that Labour are going to win mean nothing to me. It’s not about hope either as I am not desperate for a Tory win, I would just prefer it to the other alternatives. As I have said at length none of the parties reflect what I would like to see. I have a gut feeling that the Tories will win with a small majority. Pooh-pooh my gut feeling if you like but I had to use those same instincts a great deal when I was in a fast moving business environment and they very rarely let me down.

    Thank you for your best wishes or Chrismas and the New Year which I reciprocate to all who post here and to AW for his website.

  8. rosieanddaisie

    It wouldn’t surprise me if a loose deal was done pre-election between DC and NC giving the LD’s a presence in the next Govt regardless of whether an OM was achieved. Obviously this would avoid a slanging match and both could then aim their sights at EM.

  9. TOH

    Thanks. It seems to me that if the UKIP candidate in your constituency shared your core view on the size of the state, and was acceptable in other respects, then you could vote on principle without endangering the certain Con winner. However, if you got wind of a local poll that made it possibly an LD carpet bagging exercise, then you might have to tread carefully. I am of course assuming LD is second (in the south one would expect that), however distantly.

    I think the interesting thing about discussions on UKPR correspondents’ VI is that it does not add up to anything. Even marginal constituencies are usually won by a few hundred and the role of partisans in such totals is negligible.

    Having said that, I did quote the anecdote here of an LD campaign team that did so campaign right up the close of polls, and suddenly realised they had forgotten to vote themselves. Their candidate lost by fewer than those forgotten votes. This of course was before postal voting so could not happen now.

  10. @r&d A “petard” was an early modern improvised explosive device. So being “hoist by your own petard” would mean being blown up by your own IED. Possibly a way of describing what might happen to the Tories, but not likely to be something sailors would experience.

    It is possible that you were being ironic, in which case apologies.

  11. @Howard
    Missed this forum too.
    In more political terms (since numerical data do not say everything), there is now a very fragmented political landscape, with many new parties, mainly populist, anit-EU and anti-“establishment” ones, and, in many cases, anti-immigration and anti-multicuturalist. In this landscape, Social Democracy is the leading political force not because of its brilliant results (according to my calculations, its overall vote share in the 28 EU countries is approx. 25% if one relies upon the 28 GE results, and approx. 30% if one takes into account the VI polls, because of their rise in a number of countries, especially UK, Italy, Sweden and Portugal), but because of its “central” position as far as political stability is concerned and its ability to from alliances with all political forces. In other words, the political responsibilities of the SD are by far more extended than its real political base.

  12. Howard

    Your right of course. Loved your story , must have missed it before.

    Best wishes

  13. Bantams

    Now you really do have an interest in voting! Lucky you, many of us do it despite knowing it will have little effect but simply because as a hard won right it should be exercised.

  14. This is becoming a very interesting graph, as I have also plotted what I believe the GE 2010 and the current MAD VI for the UK up to yesterday’s poll (surprises await, depending on how one interprets the chart).

    I don’t want to redo this, so will await others’ contributions and post after midnight or tomorrow, depending on how busy the place is tonight.

    For those who missed the post, we’re offering our own Political Compass coordinates, for the fun of it:

    Come on Anthony…you know you want to. :))

  15. Statgeek – I have no political views of my own, I am but a humble pollster ;)

  16. @ToH

    Of course, were we to meet I expect we would have a very pleasant and civilised conversation based on our many shared values and interests.

    I perceive the difference between the Tory and Labour position to be that Labour realistically does not expect people like you to vote for them and makes no real effort to court your vote (a weakness on their part, by the way), but the Tories, at least in theory, do (or at least did) expect people like me to see them as their natural political home.

  17. Anthony

    You don’t seem that ‘umble to me. More of a shirty ole bugger.

    {and yes, I meant shirty.}

    Best wishes and yoooooltide felicianos to you as well by the way and, as is my way at such times, I forgive you for culling some of my brilliantly ironic posts.

  18. Chris – “Of course, were we to meet I expect we would have a very pleasant and civilised conversation based on our many shared values and interests.”

    That is sort of the point of the comments policy – everyone here has shared interest in political opinion polling, public opinion and psephology (either that, or you’re on the wrong site), so trying to force people to leave their own political opinions at the door should let people get on with discussing those shared interests, rather than having pointless political point scoring off people with different politics.

  19. gog the etc

    Yes, I had it confused.

    Not nice either way.

    Always associate hoist with being a sailor [not that I ever was] but I had investigated the term or heard it on QI before.

    I wasn’t expecting someone clever on UKPR as it hasn’t happened before.

  20. Saw this over on PB


    LAB 40
    CON 33
    LIB 13
    KIP 8

    Lab +2 but all MOE

    Think its the latest. ‘Steady as she goes’

    I thought that too, but was afraid to say. The obscene one is ‘forlorn hope’. Because of my knowledge of Dutch, I knew that it was likely to be a b*stardisation of ‘verloren hoop’ which means ‘a lost pile’. In other words a squandered pile of heaped up bodies. Hoop is a homonym in Dutch, as it also means ‘hope’ so who’s to say in the end. Ghastly.

  22. Chris Riley

    I am sure we would. I had a long discussion with Leftlampton on here some time ago and we concluded that ones views are largely shaped by our early life experiences. Mine certainly were hence my (possibly extreme) views in support of Freedom of the individual within the law.
    You may be right about what you say in your second paragraph, we will see in 2015.

  23. @AW

    Very well answered (if slightly wriggly).

  24. @Anthony

    Sorry if you think I was pointscoring – I am trying to demonstrate, with a personal example, why it is proving difficult for the Conservatives to increase their VI and why there are increasing numbers of Conservative columnists asking plaintively ‘The economy’s getting better so why are we not ahead in the polls?’

    I am actually here for a very slightly different reason; I am particularly (and professionally) interested in public use, interpretation, and explanation of data in general and your site is one of the best, if not the best, available on how people use and perceive that kind of information.

  25. Economic Left/Right: -5.00
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.15

  26. @Statgeek

    “we’re offering our own Political Compass coordinates”

    Your political compass
    Economic Left/Right: -8.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.72

    Given that I’m way more left wing and libertarian than Gandhi, the Dalai Lama and Nelson Mandela rolled into one, I’m awaiting my call from the UN and the Nobel peace prize committee.

    I’d take your placements of political figures with a large pinch of salt. No way is EM so far to the right, and I don’t believe he’s on the authoritarian wing either. I suspect the problem is in compiling the figures based on what people say – it will depend very much on who is listening and what impression they want to give. So both EM and DC will be gravitating towards what they see as the middle ground.

    Or maybe the axes need re-calibrating…

  27. Statgeek and AW

    I have just done it (GHM). I am the next Dalai Lama. They only need to pronounce me as successor. I don’t want to be though, as he can’t have sex can he? If he can, I’m Ok for it.

  28. Phew
    I’ve just has another look and I am Nelson Mandela almost spot on. As he had sex, I feel fulfilled again.

  29. Economic left/right -6.75
    Social libertarian/authoritarian -5.90

    Happy with that to be honest – not sure where the astrology question would have put me if I answered the other way – I don’t see that gullibility/stupidity is a function of any of the potential options

  30. Economic Left/Right: -7.00
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.59

  31. Economic Left/Right: -7.25
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.21

    Apparently I’m the next Gandhi.

    I’m just off to start a civil disobedience campaign as the first step in my campaign to free Essex from British rule…

  32. Thx folk.

    Norbold…remember to wear your sandals.

    Actually, thinking of Gandhi, reminded me of a quotation of his:

    “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

    Farage and Salmond might take solace from that.

  33. Economic Left/Right: -3.25
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.26

    Strange question about the freerer the markets the better which I strongly agreed with but which I guess skews my score rightwards.

    But I would argue that very few people rejects a market economy and it is a left wing position to want markets to be genuinely free and that is the job of Governments.

  34. Hang on a minute, where are these scores coming from? I just saw a square divided into four squares with different colours,

    There were no coordinates marked on it, nor on the next page I clicked on. Luckily for my ability to report what I saw, I ended up on almost the same point as the late SA president.

  35. See, that question is confusing and although my position is almost identical to yours I answered disagree, skewing me leftwards.

    It’s the problem of what’s meant by free markets – I class a free market as one in which any competitor could theoretically enter and rise to the top through merit and providing good service.

    That’s not what seems to happen with unregulated markets, the kind of free markets they seem to mean.

  36. if the question said unregulated I would have answered the sane as you Mr N.

  37. Has there been any other polling about possible Con/UKIP pacts?

    Looking at September’s YouGov the evidence seems pretty conclusive that it would be a bad thing… but it is just one poll, and I’m wondering about the margin of error factor with the UKIP sample in particular. Also the wording of the question is specific to one sort of pact… whereas in 2010 there was a looser, partial, one-sided pact of sorts:


  38. Mrs H has just scored nearly Mandela too but one point to the right horizontally (I swear I kept well away while she did it!). I am surprised at the degree of how lefty-tolerant most of our colleagues are – well nearly all.

    Did no one score a positive in either?

  39. @Howard,

    Econonic Left/Right +1.88
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian -0.97

    Absolutely nowhere near any notable person on the scatter graph.


  40. I agree that most of the questions are pretty nonsensical. Two different people could answer with the same choice, despite having vastly different views on the subject under discussion.

  41. @Anthony – “…..rather than having pointless political point scoring off people with different politics.”

    Ah, now. Does this mean the point scoring is pointless, because people aren’t very good at scoring points? If so, if they were better and scored points, would this cease to be pointless? It is less pointless not scoring points off people with the same politics, or is scoring points off them still be pointless, even if points are scored?

    You also say that the comments policy has a ‘sort of’ point – it that a pointless point, has the policy scored a point, if so, who has it scored it off, and isn’t point scoring against the point of the comments policy, even if it’s pointless?

    Or have I missed something?

  42. Looks to me like UKIP have given some non-voters (who gave up after the mid 90’s) something to vote for again.

    FPTP is going to leave them horribly disappointed – I expect PR to come onto the agenda after 2015 as it did at times during the mid-80’s.

  43. Jim Jam

    It doesn’t ask if you agree with a market economy; it asks how far you agree with the idea that ‘the freerer the markets the better’. Quite a big difference.

  44. *freer – I cut and pasted from your post, Jim jam!

  45. yes you are right Damien makes my answer even more a strongly agree which pulls my score rightwards which is over simplistic.

    I guess just a bit of fun though?

  46. I should add that the YouGov showing Labour benefiting most from a Con/UKIP alliance excludes don’t knows and won’t votes (as usual)… but it seems only Conservative and UKIP voters fall into that category with this poll. (Possibly 5% of all voters are falling into this category of Con+UKIP voters who “don’t know” when it comes to a pact?) All of a sudden Labour and Lib Dems know exactly how they would vote in such a situation.

    In the normal VI poll don’t knows/will not votes are spread equally among the parties (with 2010 LDs usually having the highest proportion).

  47. The next four Survation polls for Ukip are out, and they make grim reading for absolutely everyone.

    Here’s a summary, in order of how dooooomed the parties are:

    Tories: screwed up, down and sideways

    Lib Dems: *hollow laughter*

    Labour: losing substantial numbers of voters to Ukip in marginals where it counts

    Ukip: no immediate prospects of winning a parliamentary seat even in the midst of midterm blues with an unpopular Conservative prime minister, although they may have the pleasure of becoming the new opposition party in some marginals.

  48. Neil A
    Well you are where I would have put you (don’t forget how many hundreds of posts of yours I have read) so I don’t think the test can be that far out. Despite AW’s advice and plea, it will ‘out’ whatever one does to disguise it. Actually I was convinced that both Mrs H and I were further along to the right on the horizontal axis, apparently not.

  49. Your political compass
    Economic Left/Right: -7.25
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.33

  50. howard @ neil a

    ” (don’t forget how many hundreds of posts of yours I have read) ”

    Somebody has to do it H and jolly good on you for volunteering.

    I only ever read my own, in order to be absolutely certain of a high quality reading experience.

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