Sunday Polls

There were three voting intention polls in this morning’s papers, topline figures are below:

Opinium/Observer – CON 30%(+2), LAB 37%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 16%(-3)
ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 29%(nc), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 18%(+1)
YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%

Tabs for ComRes are here, tabs for YouGov are here.


255 Responses to “Sunday Polls”

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  1. first

  2. If the economy and the Conservatives recover, but the Lib Dems don’t, we will go back to the 1960s (though not the 1950s) in terms of two-party dominance. And this seems quite possible.

    I’d better check the pounds in my pocket…

  3. First.

    Lab still hovering where they have for some time. Cons still struggling to get much above 30%.

    But the Lib Dems are doing terribly aren’t they? Almost down to 1989 levels, which if I remember correctly was 6%.

  4. Con 29-32%
    Lab 38-38%
    LD 8-9%
    UKIP 13-18%

    Probably about right.

  5. @TingedFringe

    My reply to you is on the previous thread and is currently in moderation. The five words or less version is “Basically I agree with you”

  6. Encouraging set of polls for Labour.

    Counter-intuitive set of results from Com Res with support for Labour up since last month but less people thinking Ed Miliband will be PM

    Perhaps people should tell the Com Res polling panel that if people vote in sufficient numbers for a Single Party to see it elected with a 84 Seat Majority chances are pretty good that the Leader of the Party gets to be PM!

    Even if the defeated incumbent seems more prime-ministerial.
    After all it worked for Mrs T in 1979

  7. 7-point Labour lead; 7-point Labour lead; 6-point Labour lead.

    Getting boring, isn’t it?

  8. @RC et al from the last thread

    I can’t remember what the LDs said about austerity but they were very clear on tuition fees.

    The arguments about no money are b*lls: how much government taxes and spends, and what it spends it on, is a political not a financial decision. Indeed it is why we have an interest in political economy.

    The LDs were presenting as being left of Lab before the 2010 election, to the extent that I – very comfortably left of New ‘Labour’ – seriously considered voting for them.

    After the election I didn’t think they had any realistic option but to go in with the Cons.

    The way they have supported the most right wing government of my lifetime, with only the scantiest of fig leaves and without demurring from the rhetoric (indeed, they have often been more strident than the cons) means that IMO they have alienated themselves from progressive voters – even for tactical voting – for a generation.

  9. All-in-all,no real change, for the Tories in particular this must be very frustrating no real improvement in their poll rating despite the better economic news.

    The evidence shows we are heading for another Coalition with Labour being odds-on to be the largest party, (assuming they lose a couple of points and the Tories gain a few, which I expect) although that could certainly change.

    How on earth Bill Patrick can say we are going back to the 60’s in terms of two party dominance I struggle to see. Back then the two parties commanded about 90% of the vote now it’s down to 70ish% and shows no sign of reviving, in fact the opposite. If UKIP get anywhere near the middle teens then the effect on the UK’s political scene will be explosive, have no doubt about it.

  10. @ Chris Martin

    I’m not sure if it is my imagination but it feels like the polling organisations are coming much more into line with each other than was the case 6 months ago.

    We used to have very predictable polls from different organisations with different results. ICM was always bad for Lab and UKIP and good for LD- there’s still an element of this but not nearly so pronounced as earlier in the year. Same with Mori being bad for Lab. Last week ICM fitted very nicely alongside the YouGov polls and has for the previous 3 polls. Similarly some of the other organisations that showed big Lab leads are now much more in line with general polling, although it’s been a while since we had a TNS poll where you could be guaranteed a Lab lead of 10 (the last one was the first time it had not been I think).

    The only differences now seems to be a little top up for LD on Populus and ICM (but nowhere near what is was on ICM) and some much bigger UKIP scores with a couple of pollsters but not necessarily having much effect on the Lab lead.

    I wonder if this is just chance (given some of these are monthly polls) or has there been a move from “don’t knows” or certainty to vote.

  11. @ RC,

    Replied to you on the previous thread- I won’t bring the argument over here or our benevolent overlord will get testy.

    @ Mr. Nameless,

    But the Lib Dems are doing terribly aren’t they? Almost down to 1989 levels, which if I remember correctly was 6%.

    Eh, anything above 3% looks good compared to where they were in the 1950s.

  12. @Guymonde

    Are you following Bitcoin?

  13. @ Chris Martin

    “Getting boring”
    The problem is when the polls close even by a point there is a great debate about how well one party is doing and the other losing ground… for a day or two, then its…well nothing moving really…

    There are one or two possible poll changers in the media, which may drop Con VI down, if and when the public take notice, and I do believe the public will take notice of at least one of them eventually…

    Until 2014 elections are over we really don’t know the fortunes of any party, the Scottish vote has an important bearing to all of the UK and nothing can be taken for granted either way.

  14. Does anyone know when (if…) we’ll start seeing semi-regular polls for the Euro elections? Ideally, some brave organisation would survey all 28 member states and make an educated guess at what the EP’s make-up will be, but that’s not going to happen; I’d be happy with a few GB polls to mull over.

  15. @ spearmint

    “@ RC,

    Replied to you on the previous thread- I won’t bring the argument over here or our benevolent overlord will get testy.”

    That goes for me too!

  16. Mr NAMELESS.
    I think the Lib Dem figures look quite high on these polls.

    Labour look quite solid.

    I agree with BILL PATRICK that we are going to return to the post WW2 situation of two party politics.

  17. @wolf

    Strange question!
    Not really

  18. @David
    ‘How on earth Bill Patrick can say we are going back to the 60?s in terms of two party dominance I struggle to see. Back then the two parties commanded about 90% of the vote now it’s down to 70ish% and shows no sign of reviving, in fact the opposite. If UKIP get anywhere near the middle teens then the effect on the UK’s political scene will be explosive, have no doubt about it’
    The two party dominance of the 1960s is largely – if not totally – explained by the lack of intervention by other parties. The Liberals only contested half the seats, there were fewer SNP/Plaid candidates, and only the occasional minor party candidate or independent.. A good third of constituencies were just straight fights between Tory and Labour. Both larger parties effectively received many second preferences from voters who would have supported other parties had they been in the field!

  19. GRAHAM.
    I think we may return, in England, at least to straight fights between Labour and Conservatives.

  20. I know there are many who are trying to wish the present situation away but it isn’t possible.

    Political cohesion no longer exists, dissatisfaction with the two main parties coupled with regionalisation, (in the South if you vote Labour you are considered a failure, if you vote Tory in the North you are considered a traitor) means the two party system is all but dead. Whatever happens at the next GE the Libdems will survive, (even if in a truncated form, they’ve clung on through worse) and will still provide an outlet for Leftish voters where Labour have no chance in the South and South West.

    It is in the North where we will see the biggest changes, the Tories are in their death throes right wing voters will change to UKIP, UKIP will also get support from the alienated white working class who feel betrayed by Labour.

    There will be no return to two party politics, quite the opposite.

  21. @Nick P

    “Lab 38-38%”

    Surely “Lab 36-38%” is probably about right?

  22. “IMO they have alienated themselves from progressive voters – even for tactical voting – for a generation.”
    This isn’t the case for the Con-LD marginal seats.

    If you look at Con-held, LibDem targets (Latest Ashcroft poll, 3114 voters, 5th Sep 2013), the polling goes from Con 33, Lab 24, Lib 18 with a standard VI question to Con 32, Lab 18, Lib 29 with the ‘thinking about your constituency’ question with 14% of that new VI being direct Lab>Lib tactical voting[1].

    In Con held, Lab targets we go from Con 29, Lab 42, Lib 6 to Con 29, Lab 43, Lib 8, so very little indication of any tactical voting.

    If we go back to March 2013, we see a similar result.
    Con-Held Labour targets go from Con 34, Lab 44, Lib 5 to Con 35, Lab 43, Lib 7.
    But Lib seats with Con in second place go from Con 33, Lab 29, Lib 18 to Con 30, Lab 23, Lib 31 – indicating clear tactical voting.
    This can also be compared to Lib seats with Lab (E&W) in second – Con 23, Lab 51, Lib 13 to Con 17, Lab 50, Lib 21.
    Again, some tactical voting but clearly not enough.

    Swing in the Lib-Con seats 4.8% Lib to Con.
    Swing in the Lib-Lab seats 17.1% Lib to Lab.

    So tactical voting to keep out the Cons should be strong enough to convince progressive voters to vote LibDem.
    So clear swing of progressive voters to Lab where Lab may win, but enough tactical voting from progressive voters to Lib to potentially keep lots of their seats where Lab won’t win.

    [1] As defined by people who answered ‘Lab’ in the first question and ‘Lib’ in the second. It may be the case that the first question already had some tactical voting, but there’s a clear tactical shift toward the LibDems.

  23. AW, any TV polling coming up? I know YG usually does the X-Factor final, any polling this afternoon about SPOTY?

  24. David
    “The evidence shows we are heading towards another coalition”
    Er , no it does not.

  25. @Tinged

    That is SO below the belt.
    Providing evidence to undermine my prejudice, what next?

  26. I’m a bit puzzled by the number of people who think we are headed for a hung parliament, too.

    The evidence is clear. Lab majority. The only question is, “how big?”

  27. People like CL1945 do not rely on evidence for their opinion.

    Having no interest in polling as an evidence provider, I do wonder what they get out of this site?

  28. (Ignore my comment above, I’ve found YGs poll on SPOTY)

  29. Re: LDs and Austerity.

    This has ALWAYS been the root of the collapse in LD support. It’s not, as RC says, that feckless voters are looking for nanny to take the pain away bit is the fact that the Austerity issue laid bare the central issue for anyone voting LD.

    When you vote LD, you have no idea what you are voting for until after the post-GE negotiations.

    Austerity
    Clegg campaigned strongly on an anti-Austerity ticket. But after the GE, he found 2 entirely different reasons to have changed his mind.
    1) The OBR’s claim that the structural deficit was much bigger than hitherto believed.
    2) Greece (this one having led to Clegg changing his mind BEFORE the GE in favour of Austerity Now, although he didn’t tell his Party or the Electorate about this and continued to campaign against Austerity Now).

    There is a massive credibility gap here. No-one believes that Clegg would have taken this line had Labour taken another 15 seats off the Tories and he’d gone into coalition with Lab. He would have clearly stuck to the Austerity Deferred line.

    Now, you might just get away with this if your reputation has been openly one of being a ruthless manoeuvrer. But when you put yourself forward as an Honest Joe anti-politician, turning out to be a ducker and diver is fatal.

  30. I’m a bit puzzled by the number of people who think we are headed for a hung parliament, too.

    The evidence is clear. Lab majority. The only question is, “how big?”

    I think the theory in play here is that:

    a) Government VI increases from the mid term dip. There is evidence that this occurs, but in modern times the Governments vote share has declined at every subsequent election. If this happens in 2015, the ceiling for the Conservatives will not exceed 36%

    b) The electorate perceive an economic recovery and credit the Government with being responsible for it. Here, polling evidence seems to point to the fact that this isn’t entirely clear yet.

    c) The electorate nearer to the next election will look at Labour’s plans and not find them credible economically. I think that Labour haven’t convinced the broad electorate yet, but we will have to wait until more plans are announced before we know how this pans out.

    In my own mind I weigh the odds up as follows:

    Labour Majority – 20%
    Labour Largest Party – 50%
    Conservative Largest Party – 20%
    Conservative Majority – 10%

  31. @guymonde. I think there is still tactical voting to keep the other conservative out…..but Labour Lib Dem marginals? Well, let’s just say we didn’t actually want to vote for a Tory but ended up with one….

  32. David,

    “How on earth Bill Patrick can say we are going back to the 60?s in terms of two party dominance I struggle to see. Back then the two parties commanded about 90% of the vote now it’s down to 70ish% and shows no sign of reviving, in fact the opposite. If UKIP get anywhere near the middle teens then the effect on the UK’s political scene will be explosive, have no doubt about it.”

    I didn’t say that we are going back to 1960s levels of two party dominance; I said that IF the Conservatives recover due to an improving economy (i.e. get UKIP back down to 4-8% come polling day) then we are moving back to a kind of two-party dominance we haven’t seen since then.

    If UKIP’s support stays high, then I agree. However, I think that the main impact will be to enable a Labour landslide, another 13 years (or more) in the wilderness for the Tories as they try to out-right-wing UKIP, and no referendum on the EU for a generation (if ever). Talk about unintended consequences!

    UKIP are to Miliband what the SDP was to Thatcher, except while the SDP forced Labour to move in a more electable centrist direction, UKIP will to take the Tories back to the good old days of 1997-2005.

    So it hinges on what happens to UKIP. If UKIP voters head to the Tories to keep Labour out and get a referendum on the EU, then at the very least we’ll see a close two-party contest, where Labour would be lucky to get an overall majority. If not, then I think we’ll see a rather large Labour majority, because a vote for Labour is worth more than a vote for any other national party.

  33. Just for fun I had a quick look at the UK monthly averages for Con + UKIP vs Lab + Lib and took the difference (Lab +Lib is generally the higher; six occurrences of CON + UKIP being higher and four occurrences of zero lead).

    A simple example, if you haven’t followed thus far, using today’s poll:

    Con 32
    Lab 38
    Lib 9
    UKIP 13

    Con + UKIP 45
    Lab + Lib 47

    Difference 2 (if Con + UKIP is the higher, it is recorded as a negative value)

    Then I took all the polls since my data start of 1st November 2011 and took the calendar month average of the differences

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/con-ukip-diff.png

    Now I know it has no great meaning in itself, other than a possible hint at the country being more or less left-wing (and that’s questionable), but it’s interesting all the same.

    If that graph starts to drop into the negative values (Con + UKIP being higher than Lib + Lab), what might that mean for 2015?

  34. STATGEEK

    “Just for fun ”

    Are you Peter Snow in disguise?
    Actually an interesting little graph

  35. HOWARD.
    Good Afternoon on a happy day, at last, for the Reds of football.

    In terms of polling I think the solid but not huge poll lead chimes with my instinct that Labour may be the biggest party in the Commons. The Lib Dem figure contradicts my intuition at least in terms of seat share.

  36. @ NickP,

    I’m a bit puzzled by the number of people who think we are headed for a hung parliament, too.

    Lingering 1992 trauma/reassurance. People are fighting the last war. Well, the fifth-to-last war.

    @ Howard,

    People like CL1945 do not rely on evidence for their opinion.

    Evidence would undermine his unique je ne sais quoi. I eagerly await the day when we get a freak Lib Dem – 0% poll so that Chris can tell us it looks too high.

    @ Statgeek,

    I’d hesitate to ascribe too much significance to those totals, because since Eastleigh Ukip have been picking up a fair number of Labour and Lib Dem switchers. In fact, when Ashcroft asked the constituency specific VI question in the Lab/Tory marginals Ukip support collapsed slightly… and went to Labour. Ukip is no longer just a Tory splinter group.

  37. I share Spearmint’s view on the left/right split, as it seems on the edges of all the main parties is a very chaotic churn.

    The high point of Statgeek’s chart starts at the ‘omni-shambles’ budget and drops away at the Eastleigh by election.

    I don’t think UKIP have introduced anything new as such. Perhaps they have simply brought a certain emphasis from the shadows to the mainstream.

  38. Political cohesion no longer exists, dissatisfaction with the two main parties coupled with regionalisation,

    I think the idea of dissatisfaction with the parties is somewhat exaggerated particularly regarding Labour

    If Labour manages at a GE around 39% it will be it’s best performance since 2001 and just 1% short of the vote in the landslide 418 Seat victory that year

    Interestingly The Tories are currently polling almost the identical level that they did in 2001 when Hague’s leadership saw just 166 Tories elected.

  39. Spearmint and CL1945

    Oh it’s not unique. There are others who ‘just know’ what’s going to happen in 2015. In fact Chris has just offered his ‘intuition’ and here was I thinking he was male.

    Incidentally my English was faulty in my previous post as it could have been I who was mentioned as being disinterested in polling as an evidence provider.

    Read again:
    ‘Having no interest in polling as an evidence provider, I do wonder what they get out of this site?

    :-) Oh dear, kind of you both not to point that out.

  40. HOWARD.
    Tut Tut.

    Bishop Butler teaches us about intuition in use of our conscience.

    SPEARMINT.
    The hols approach.

  41. Spearmint,

    If I recall we had a poll a while back showing not one Lib Dem voter in Yorkshire and The Humber.

  42. http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/15/my-poll-finding-of-the-year-the-massive-gap-between-perception-and-reality-over-the-nature-of-the-uk/

    This chart from The Other Place is a good illustration of the weird perceptions people have about Britain.

    28% of people are single parents? How many people are parents full stop?

    30% black or Asian? Maybe in London, Leicester or Bradford but I don’t know if they’ve been to Devon, Derbyshire or Scotland and counted the black people recently. It wouldn’t take long.

    The Christian one is the only one on which people may have a point over official figures, since a lot of people just tick the box on the census without thinking. I’m almost certain there aren’t a majority of people who are Christian in Britain.

  43. @Mr Nameless

    I am not remotely surprised.

    If anyone took seriously the representation of the UK offered by our newspapers, then they be as wrong as the other places suggests.

  44. @ Howard,

    Oh it’s not unique

    Lol.

    @ Mr. Nameless,

    If I recall we had a poll a while back showing not one Lib Dem voter in Yorkshire and The Humber.

    That bodes well for your assault on Sheffield Hallam!

  45. Spearmint,

    Indeed. Our (admittedly qualitative rather than quantitative) experience is that Clegg seems to be suffering an anti-incumbency effect from a lot of voters. They’d not mind a Lib Dem MP normally but really don’t like Clegg personally.

  46. @Lefty Lampton (2.28)

    ” But when you put yourself forward as an Honest Joe anti-politician, turning out to be a ducker and diver is fatal.”

    ——————————————————————————-

    I think you have hit the nail on the head. I am of the opinion that many voters are fed up with the behaviour of politicians generally and when someone is so obviously discarding any principles they had, then they are finished.

    Of course I could be wrong and where NC stands now may have been his position all along and it is his position pre-2010 we should be questioning.

  47. Another YouGov poll slowing the SNP vote trailing in the Scottish subset, this time lagging behind the Tories. I’m now wondering if we really starting to see a collapse in SNP support fo

  48. …for Westminster voting intentions?

  49. @Spearmint

    “Ukip is no longer just a Tory splinter group.”

    I think you’re right and they may well be housing voters who, whilst harbouring broadly right wing views, wouldn’t dream of ever voting for the Conservative Party. My hunch is that if we see a marked diminution in UKIP’s current standing of circa 11% come May 2015, and I’m not assuming that at all, then I think it will be people drifting into abstention rather than dutifully returning “home” to the Tories (or Labour, for that matter).

    I think they are a “plague on all your houses party” now finding a voice and a coherent set of core objectives. They are a suppressant on the Tory vote, rather than a temporary repository of Tory GE voters, in that they probably contain many conservative-minded voters who would have voted for the Thatcher/Tebbit/Lilley Tory Party of the 80s but wouldn’t vote for a Cameron led Tory Party now. In that sense, their disaffection keeps the Tory vote ceiling pretty low and I think Tory supporters are wrong to think many of them will flock to the blue flag at the next election. Farage typifies most of the core UKIP vote and his antagonism to Cameron and Toryism is deep seated and enduring.

  50. @mrnameless – “Almost down to 1989 levels, which if I remember correctly was 6%.”

    After the merger the Alliance began trading under the name Social and Liberal Democrats, and then they became the Democrats… it wasn’t until October 1989 that we saw any Liberal Democrats.

    During whole of 1989 pollsters were also still prompting for the surviving Owenite SDP. So to that 6% you may as well add another three or four percent.

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