This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%. The four point lead is lower than we’ve seen of late, and comes after a series of five and six point leads this week . In comparison Labour leads were averaging 7 points last month. Tabs are here.

YouGov also asked people if they thought the economy would be doing better or worse if Labour had won the election, and if they thought their own personal finances would be doing better or worse. 21% thought the economy would have been doing better if Labour had won in 2010, 42% that it would be doing worse, 26% thought that it would be much the same. On their own finances, 25% think they would have been better off if Labour had won, 32% worse off, 31% much the same. Tabs are here.

Meanwhile Populus’s twice weekly poll has a similar Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 38%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 9%. Tabs here.

UPDATE: Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll for the Standard is also out, and it also has a four point Labour lead. Topline voting intentions are CON 33%(+1), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 10%(+2)


196 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Populus & MORI figures”

1 2 3 4
  1. Just thought I would take the opportunity of wishing everyone Happy New Year my posts might be out of moderation by then!

  2. Conservatives getting some benefit from the improving economy, and talk of fuel bills has subsided for the moment. 35% is still too low for them to win, unless Mr Brown comes back to lead Labour.

    UKIP seem a bit more solid than I thought they might be, perhaps they will get a bit more support than the 5-6% support I previously thought, although some of that has clearly come from Labour.

    Christmas is on people’s minds so unless something odd happens, I expect little movement till the new year.

  3. When my Dear old Uncle Turns up we will assure Him that all the Christmas deckies are just left over from Hanukkah or maybe tell Him it’s 2014 already or 5775!

  4. We used go on about how Labour should be doing better (and the flaws in that position) but now I’m surprised at how well the Tories are doing. After 3 years of making unpopular decisions, a lousy economy, and the ascendency of a rival right-wing party, they’re doing well (in terms of current VI vs. GE VI) by the standards of even a normal mid-term government.

    That makes me think that the 2010 Tory campaign was very poor, if they only did slightly better than their current VI. Or maybe another campaign was very good. Whatever: the puzzle is why the Tories aren’t doing worse. (I ask that without meaning “Given how bad their policies are”.)

  5. AW FPT Many thanks.
    PC FPT. Many, many thanks (got rid of Lily Allen).

  6. I don’t think the increase in Con VI (Lab VI has held steady) has anything to do with improving economy. Economic wellbeing is a very gradual influence that shows its effects over an extended period. But the recent closing of the gap is down to a very sudden jump in Con VI since last weekend (all 33s and 34s compared to 30s and 32s), suggesting a particular event or change in news reporting is having an effect.

    It might be his glowing re-writing of his history wrt Nelson Mandela and apartheid, it might be the autumn statement, it might be his contempt of court. But it is something of that ilk. My suspicion is that it will go away again quite soon, and we’ll return to 7 point Lab leads.

  7. By my reckoning, the Conservatives need at least a six point lead, while they seem to struggle to get out of a six point deficit at present. Even then, we’re talking very small OM in a six to eight point lead.

    Anything is possible, and while I think the Conservatives can improve on their 36% result in 2015, they won’t get this without taking all their VI back off UKIP, and both Con and Lab keeping a fair chunk of the LD VI (Lab has done this already, so it’s not likely). With that in mind, I’ll take a long shot at there being some sort of Con / UKIP joint ticket.

  8. Yes the couple of points to the Cons is somewhat of a puzzler. Perhaps it is true that being on the news incessantly gives a lift, regardless (no such thing as….)..

  9. Bill,

    I think you are only partly correct re Con VI.

    There are many Cons supporters who would never dream of voting Labour but in previous parliaments a decent number would have given LD as a VI response but we know most would in the end come home to mummy.

    In this sense the Con VI was never likely to get as low as it would have done had there been a con maj government even hypothetically with the same legislative programme as the LD option is not available as a protest.

    With a Con OM I reckon the LDs would have been over 30% by now the cons below 25% and the talk would have been about who is the main opposition etc.

    There has been a rightward loss of course to the UKIP but this is less than the temporary LD VI loss would have been.

    Just to repeat my view, though, that the UKIP vote will fall to 6% ish with a 3-4& net gain for the Tories meaning there is only a small Lab lead as far as I am concerned.

  10. We shouldn’t forget that after ’97 it took the Tories 10 years to get any sort of lead over Labour. Ever since the Coalition was formed it has always been who is going to be the biggest party in the next Coalition, at the moment that would appear to be Labour, but only just.

  11. I suppose there might be a small increase in Tory support amongst those who previously voted LD to keep Labour out but were as disgusted by a Coalition between the Tories and LD ‘s as many LD apparently were when their Left of Centre party decided to prop up a Right of Centre minority government.

    Consequently both groups have returned to their Mums (Labour and Conservative)

    Unfortunately for the Tories there are a lot more of the former than the latter.

  12. I would point out too statgeek, that increasing the voting percentage for the incumbent is quite difficult, and not that common. As for the Con/Ukip joint ticket, there is no evidence to show that is even remotely being discussed, for that to be even possible, DC would have to apologise for his, ‘fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists’ jibe, (unlikely) or the Tories get a new leader.

  13. Bill – I wish to add that this is why the key number for me and others is the Lab VI which imo is too low to suggest they will form a maj Government after the next GE but should do well enough to take some con seats and push close for the largest party status.
    My minority view amongst reds on here is that the cons will get most votes but that seat count could be close due to current FPTP outcomes.

    David – just read yours and I think spot on but with 18 months left many things can happen to move the crucial swing voters.

  14. If Howard is right that “being on the news incessantly gives a lift, regardless” then we might expect the UKIP VI to rise come the EU Parliament elections. They are not very prominent at the moment, though their share holds up.

  15. I increasingly think lately that that old question often asked in science re ‘does the observation of a subject in of itself effect what is being observed’ may be coming into play here when pollsters contact people for their voting intentions. e.g. Person A has recently been getting high gas bills (who hasn’t!) phone rings pollster asks who would you vote for? Person A says Labour with a view to poking the government to cut his gas bill but never dreaming he might actually vote for them in a real election…? I think Milliband in choosing incredibly simple solutions to these single issue topics might risk becoming considered damned good at opposition but less well regarded as potential government material.

  16. Interesting point, Nostra, except Ed M’s energy prices announcement hasn’t massively affected the Labour VI.

    The Labour 38 per cent have been there throughout the Parliament. The energy announcement gave Labour 40s for about a month, but your analysis may well account (or part-account) for why it’s now back at 38.

    There will be some softness at the edges of Labour’s 38. That showed when Ed M was quiet during the summer, but it didn’t have much effect when the polls were averaged. I don’t think Lab will take any more from the LDs, and I don’t think there are many votes for them from among the UKIP or Tory voters. (As Neil A said a while back, the Tory campaign – which has focused strongly on their core support – appeals to people for whom there’s not much not to like in the current economic situation.) So for them it’s 38, plus whatever tactical votes they can pick up, and however many Don’t Knows they can impart some ‘knowledge’ to.

    As for the Tory ‘improvement’? It’s the Autumn statement and constant reiteration of the ‘economy picking up’ theme, which is bound to appeal to those who don’t want to vote Labour and who are seeking a reason to support DC. But the economy’s not picking up in a way that is going to help them very much, and you can only trade on promises for so long, especially when you’ve been in government for three and a half years and have dictated the economic course we are taking. However, I would think most of those who either can, or want to, see through the economic story are counting among Labour’s 38 anyway.

  17. I’m pretty close to Jim Jam in my sense of what’s happening, and likely to happen.
    For Labour fortunes to improve decisively they need to make some progress on the underlying issue – that more people think they would have been worse off under Labour than they are under the coalition. Labour completely lost the plot on this during the leaderless period and have made no real effort to refute the story about ‘this mess’ whilst the tories and LDs have been relentless in repeating it.
    Frustrating to me and I suspect it’s too late to rectify now unless the supposed recovery collapses before the election (which I still think is a good outside bet)

  18. Interesting point about the interviewer’s effect, halo effect or Hawthorne effect or whatever, raised by Nostra. As mentioned on here previously the context of the questions e.g. “second vote” probably has some influence on the outcome, as do prompts for some but maybe not all parties. Not sure about this – one for AW perhaps?

    I do not disagree with any of the recent posts, and am on record several times as saying anything can happen (effect of 2014 euroelections, Scottish referendum, big rise or collapse of UKIP, scandal, war, resignation of key figure or figures.) But on the figures we have now, without a change I must say Labour are still favourites, aren’t they? When you take into account the boundary effect favouring Labour, and the UKIP spoiler impact on the Conservative percent, I would have said clear favourites at the moment.

    Even on 36/36/13 Labour are only five seats short of a majority.

    But I can always be wrong…

  19. @Guymonde, Jim Jam

    I tend to agree with you. Labour really need to do something about that narrative, or even if they do form a new Government, I fear they’ll face an unprecedentedly hostile Press and a public even less willing to give them the benefit of the doubt than they have the Tories.

    I think there’s a good chance that whoever wins in 2015 will get a serious drubbing in 2020 unless the economy does incredibly (in the literal sense of ‘in a way that is not currently credible’) well.

  20. I think those questions on how people think they would feel if Labour had won in 2010 are illuminating – and highly worrying for the reds.

    It seems to show that large numbers of voters either don’t know what Labour wants to do, or don’t trust them to get it right. With the economy improving, this is probably the reason for votes edging up and down.

    This pattern does appear quite clear, going back through the summer, but interrupted by a very strong play by Ed M on fuel prices.

    This may show several things. Firstly, if the recovery keeps happening, Tories are in play. [Whether it will or not is a very significant question, over half the spending cuts are still to come, and the NHS could well creak and groan between now and the GE].

    It also shows that Labour need some strong plays to overcome the doubts. Again, this could happen. People have stopped assuming Ed M is a duffer, but there needs to be a consistent economic plan, and the associated eye catching policies.

    I still think that electoral geography and second term incumbency makes life hard for the Tories, but for a while people had returned to the assumption of a Labour majority – still perfectly possible, but not without a fight, and some luck.

  21. @Alec

    I think people have stopped thinking *Ed* is a duffer, but they’re very far from convinced by the rest of his team.

  22. Mind you, they don’t seem to think much of the Tory Front Bench either.

  23. @Jim Jam
    ‘David – just read yours and I think spot on but with 18 months left many things can happen to move the crucial swing voters.’

    Bit of an exaggeration there – It’s actually less than 17 months now!

  24. I think the polls are hugely under-estimating UKIP and it begs the question as to what questions are being asked to the respondents. There is a huge online support for UKIP which is reflected in the online polls and you can see from most comments sections in the major newspapers that voters of Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem are in a small minority. These polls are most likely based on previous election weightings which discounts the huge surge in recent support for the party. On Tuesday UKIP will be publishing its own polls and I guarantee it will paint a very different picture to the above.

  25. Hi Guymonde,

    There are two stories, aren’t there. Story 1 is ‘Labour caused the original mess’. Story 2 is this recent thing about would people have been better or worse off if Labour had been in power?

    Story 1 is the ring of power. It was put about, as you and Chris Riley say, during the leaderless period. It then took root and was unstoppable by the time Ed M had bedded himself in, despite the fact the whole country knew the mess was a bankers’ mess and international.

    Story 2 concerns the merits of Osborne’s remedy (austerity). He is saying it was (and will be) painful, but it’s working. Labour have argued that it’s not working, except in a cyclical way. It’s merely enriching the Tories’ friends and backers, while loading pain on the poor. The subtext to Osborne’s Story 2, however, is, ”If only Brown and Darling hadn’t been such incompetents….” which links back to the highly successful Story 1; and I think that subtext explains the ‘We’d have been worse off under Labour” polling of recent days.

    Certainly I agree with you and Chris Riley. Labour need to attack it. By and large – coming late to the party – they seem to have decided to ignore Story 1 and hope it will go away. Story 2 gives it a slightly different new incarnation and proves how dangerous it is. For a start, the Don’t Knows as regards both of the key questions asked in the poll must include some of Labour’s 38 per cent! But the numbers of those who feel that Labour would have made them worse off match the Tory VI figures on one of the questions asked, and the Tory plus UKIP-Tory VI figures on the other, so I doubt the issue threatens Labour’s 38 per cent – at the moment.

    A difficult topic for Labour all the same. Return to the issue and you give it oxygen; emphasise the non-recovery and you sound like Jeremiah. Ed B has chosen the ”Most of us don’t feel better off” line. Ideally Labour need more tasty rabbits to pull out of the hat, but there’s a long time to go before May 2015 and only so many rabbits. Up to now Ed M’s nous on the judgement and timing front has been good – but it’s his very tricky call….

  26. “On Tuesday UKIP will be publishing its own polls and I guarantee it will paint a very different picture to the above.”

    Yes… me too.

  27. RosieandDasie:

    ;)

  28. @ Mike,

    Oh goodie, someone who knows when the Survation polls are coming out. But the three so far looked pretty much like Ashcroft’s- Labour coasting home in Lab/Tory marginals without breaking a sweat, Ukip and the Tories battling it out for second place.

    I suppose the hope in the purple trenches is that the Tory/LD marginals look more promising? (Or perhaps that Cameron is heading for a serious drubbing, thus proving Tory modernisation is a failed experiment?)

  29. @ Bill,

    the puzzle is why the Tories aren’t doing worse

    Lack of alternatives. Labour are discredited by 13 years of government, by uncharismatic leadership, and by an era of political cynicism that inherently makes life difficult for progressive parties. As Jim Jam says no one can switch a protest vote to the Lib Dems, and Ukip has a relatively low ceiling on its appeal. Disgruntled non-kippy Tory voters really don’t have anywhere to go- or in regions north of the Wash, left a long time ago.

    They’ve lost 5-8% of their post-Cleggageddon VI, though. It might not be unpopular enough by Mrs. Thatcher’s standards, but I think it’s probably enough to make most normal politicians nervous, especially when there’s been no sign of recovery in almost two years.

  30. ” …there is no evidence to show that is even remotely being discussed”

    Except by Michael Fabricant, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries, Daniel Hannan, Toby Young, Nigel Farage, Stuart Wheeler and maybe a dozen or twenty assorted Conservative MPs.

    Rees-Mogg believes Farage is only saying that Cameron would have to go… it is something that could be negotiated. The Conservative leadership is also ruling out a pact with UKIP. Some UKIP branch associations have voted down the idea of a pact.

    Ben Harris-Quinney (Bow Group Chairman, Director of Conservative Grassroots) arranged a meeting in June in the HoC to discuss joint strategies for 2015. I can’t find anything about what was said at this meeting… it could be that it came to nothing, or it could be that the “pact” will be an under-the-radar “understanding” appl%ing only to certain constituencies.

    Imo nothing will move until after the EU elections. Strategy is more likely being run at the level of newspaper proprietors and a select coterie of dinner guests. Sandys standing down in Thanet South could be an indication that the Conservatives will indeed fulfill their promise to field a candidate in every constituency (but maybe just a paper one there).

    Here’s Andrew Lilico’s take on how a Con/UKIP pact might shape up:

    h
    ttp://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2012/09/andrew-lilico-what-would-be-the-details-of-a-conservative-ukip-pact.html

  31. Actually I’ve a bone to pick with our Barnard Castle correspondent Anthony. As earlier reported, I was grateful for the escape from the John Lewis advert ditty rebounding around my head. However PC’s advice soon morphed Lonnie Donegan’s ‘Putting on the style’ through ‘Cumberland Gap’ into ‘DYCGLIFOTBPON’. I am now stuck on the latter and need instant relief which today’s polls (being dead boring) have failed to relieve.

  32. @Mike – “There is a huge online support for UKIP which is reflected in the online polls…..”

    Hmm….I hope you aren’t talking about those ‘online polls’ that newspapers run on their websites.

    “Voodoo if you want to”, as someone famous once said.

  33. @ Howard

    A different Donegan – hope it helps with your troubles:

    In 1814 we took a little trip
    Along with Colonel Packenham down the mighty Mississip
    We took a little bacon and we took a little beans
    And we fought the bloomin British down in New Orleans

    @Billy Bob
    A deal cooked up by Michael Fabricant, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries, Daniel Hannan, Toby Young, Nigel Farage, Stuart Wheeler….

    Bring it on!

  34. Michael Fabricant, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries, Daniel Hannan, Toby Young, Nigel Farage and Stuart Wheeler walk into a bar…

    (The barman says “Get out, we’re full!”)

  35. guymonde

    I cover your Battle of New Orleans and raise you >>>>>>>

    “GRAN’DAD”

    Lovely for xmas.

  36. Eddie Izzard’s done an interview with the Graun about his political ambitions.

    http://www.theguardian.com/culture/2013/dec/13/eddie-izzard-going-into-politics

    He seems a bit of a Blairite for the current Labour membership not to be incredibly wary of him. But could be a good Mayoral candidate – high profile, but capable of being serious.

  37. The PM will be comfortable with that list flirting with UKIP.

    I daresay there’s one or two there he’d dearly love to defect.

  38. I am surprised that so many people believe that the Tories can succeed in 2015 by blaming their economic difficulties on ‘Labour’s mess’.
    My mind goes back to what happened after the October 1964 election when Labour inherited a record Balance of Payments deficit. The Tories were duly blamed for that ‘mess’ and this helped Harold Wilson win a landslide victory at the March 1966 election. There was no way, however, that Labour could have got away with pining the blame on the Tories by the time of the June 1970 election – nor did they seriously try.
    Likewise Ted Heath made no attempt to blame his Labour predecessors for his problems at the time of the Feb 1974 election.
    Why would such a tactic be any more successful in 2015?

  39. In November 2012 Michael Fabricant (Vice-Chairman of the Conservative Party Parliamentary Campaigning, responsible for strategy on marginal seats and by-elections… according to Wikipedia) published his pamphlet “The Pact”.

    Part of his pamphlet concerned the promise of In/Out EU referendum. After some to-ing and fro-ing Cameron made it party policy (January 2013).

  40. The average Labour lead is about half of what it was this time last year. See the relevant Wikipedia page for confirmation.

  41. Another judge complaining about witnesses/defendants being linked to/associated with DC. Apparently for it to be known that DC is your friend is “deeply prejudicial” to you.

  42. Andy JS

    …and?

    PC
    Yes Mrs H started to sing Battle of New Orleans, which is actually my fav LD. (was LD an LD I wonder? No, all popstars become Tory after their first million).

    Billy Bob

    I had to look up the chap Lilico (such a handle will take him far) and I then went on to a blog he wrote. Gosh! ‘Mothers’ and ‘some do have them’ came to mind.

  43. @ Graham

    “I am surprised that so many people believe that the Tories can succeed in 2015 by blaming their economic difficulties on ‘Labour’s mess’.”

    Well it sort of beggars belief, but :

    “21% thought the economy would have been doing better if Labour had won in 2010, 42% that it would be doing worse, 26% thought that it would be much the same”

    So after 3 1/2 years of stagnation nation, that suggests that the ‘mess’age still holds for 2/3 of people.

    If the current ‘recovery’ persists it will be a huge challenge for Lab to change that view.

  44. “21% thought the economy would have been doing better if Labour had won in 2010, 42% that it would be doing worse, 26% thought that it would be much the same”

    Surely that means that 42% of the electorate are unlikely to vote Labour? The 21% seem highly likely to vote Lab. And the 26% are just as likely to as not? Be interesting how the percentage map to vote intention and to don’t knows.

  45. @Guymonde

    Well another way of looking at the data is to say that 47% believe things would be better or no worse than under the Coalition.
    A further point that might ,perhaps, be worth making is that the fact that pollsters ask such a question in that way does not necessarily make it particularly salient in electoral terms. It’s really a rather contrived , hypothetical question to which no one can know the answer.

  46. Am I missing something about the Eddie Izzard article?

    “I was born in Yemen, so it’s my duty to do this when Arab people are struggling so hard to try to get democracy going. I have to play Yemen. This is right that I should be doing this.”

    “He looks surprised when I ask why he wants to be mayor. “Why? I think I can put a lot of energy into it. I was born in London, I think London’s a great city.”

  47. It’s just dawned on me. 2016 – Three Eds and all Labour.

    Cue the media headlines (and the opposition slogans).

  48. Colin Davis ”
    despite the fact the whole country knew the mess was a bankers’ mess and international. ”

    But the opinion polls say that people don’t agree with your view and do blame Labour at least in part

  49. “Surely that means that 42% of the electorate are unlikely to vote Labour?”

    Not even that as it relates to the 2010 result. Also that would assume that the way people will vote in 2015 will be determined solely by the performance of the economy. I doubt that’s the case for anyone.

  50. STATGEEK

    Might just mean that London is just a tad bigger than we thought.

1 2 3 4