There are three YouGov polls out today, Britain, Scotland and Wales. Starting with the regular daily poll for the Sun, GB voting intentions stand at CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – a five point Labour lead, the third in a row from YouGov. Full tabs are here.

There was a second YouGov poll in the Times, this one a Scottish poll on referendum voting intentions. YouGov have the YES vote at 33% (up one point since September), the NO vote at 52% (no change). Excluding won’t votes and don’t knows the figures are YES 39%, NO 61%. This is the first YouGov poll since the independence white paper and clearly shows no significant change in referendum voting intentions. John Curtice has a nice summary of the three post-white paper polls we’ve seen so far on his blog here – a little narrowing in the lastest wave of polls, but “a touch on the tiller, rather than a game changer”. Full tabs for the YouGov poll are here.

Finally there is a new YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, the first of a regular series of Welsh voting intention polls. Welsh voting intentions are:

Westminster – CON 21%, LAB 46%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 12%, UKIP 10%
Welsh Assembly constituency – CON 19%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, Plaid 20%, UKIP 7%
Welsh Assembly regional – CON 19%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Plaid 15%, UKIP 10%

No changes from the previous poll as YouGov have changed how they prompt their Welsh assembly polls, as we explored yesterday. More generally the Westminster figures represent a 7.5 point swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the general election (not wildly dissimilar from the GB national picture), while the Welsh Assembly figures suggest an improvement for UKIP, but not a vast change for the other parties – if repeated at a Welsh assembly election Labour would retain the same number of seats they won in 2011, just short of an overall majority. Full Welsh tabs are here.

225 Responses to “New YouGov British, Scottish and Welsh polls”

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  1. @ Neil A

    Thanks again for all your comments & explanations regarding the thing which we shouldn’t be talking about. ;-)

  2. @HuffPostUKPol: Asda admits its food prices could fall in an independent Scotland

    Oh well so much for that scare story

    So the evidence is clear – prices may rise or fall.

    Well that’s blow to, err, someone?

  3. @Bill Patrick – “The only generalisation one can make is that when the Liberals have had power in the past (the Lib-Lab pact) it didn’t do them much good.”

    During the 15 month Lib-Lab pact there was little in the way of “power”… participation in a fortnightly “consultative committee” (“the government should take note of Liberal proposals”) but not much beyond that.

    Steel claimed he had acted as a “block on Socialism”, but Callaghan had by then already signalled that there would be no more nationalisations. In fact Labour had been governing with cross-party support (dropping controversial legislation) for some considerable time before the pact was negotiated; the EEC referendum was just one instance of that, and there Steel didn’t get PR for European elections (misjudging Conservative opposition), his one big hoped for policy objective.

    Liberals did get hammered in the 1977 local elections and suffered in the opinion polls, however, if by the time of the 2015 GE LDs were to see only a 4.5% drop in support and a nett loss of let’s say nine MPs, then they will be be thinking: Result!

  4. @Billy Bob
    “…..if by the time of the 2015 GE LDs were to see only a 4.5% drop in support and a nett loss of let’s say nine MPs, then they will be be thinking: Result!”

    Which is one reason why many won’t be voting for them again come hell or high water. The more seats the LDs retain, the more they’ll be encouraged to go for a repeat performance with the Conservatives.

  5. If it helps, I used to consult on computerised supermarket distribution projects and was project leader on a big one. The price you pay in the shop is indeed dependent on the local market competition (if the concern has a sophisticated local pricing facility in its system) but the real margin is decided by how clever you are at setting up your distribution centres in the right place and the transport costs involved. The cost of the actual original stuff is not such a huge factor, relative between competitors.

  6. In amongst all of the referendum polling, You Gov sneaked in a Holyrood poll for the Times under the radar.

    Constituency share, then regional list share, changes since September in brackets:

    Con 14(-2), 14(-1)
    Lab 38(+4), 37(+6)
    LD 5(=), 5(-1)
    SNP 38(+1), 34(+1)
    Green 1(-1), 3(-4)
    SSP 0(=), 3(=)
    UKIP 3(=), 4(-1)

    So in a properly weighted Scottish Holyrood poll, Conservatives getting weaker in Scotland, despite all of the speculation here to the contrary. And also a modest Labour revival.

  7. @Howard

    Indeed. There is another factor, which will be the duty on the tobacco and alcohol being collected by Holyrood in that scenario, and how that will affect the large retail levy.

    I still think that prices will rise either way. They always do. For the unionists to use this as an issue is pretty desperate. If the SNP said that food prices could rise more under the union, would it get much credit (or airtime)?

  8. Changing the subject entirely, I noticed that it is a Scottish thread so I could ask my question from before.

    If we were to say that the Tories were to gain five Westminster seats at the next election and the Libdems were to collapse entirely, what seats would the Tories gain.

    I was thinking particularly of the Perth and North Perthshire seat where the Tories were only stopped from winning at the last election by a tactical vote for SNP by Lab and LD. The reason that I think this could be interesting if we expect there to be a swing against the Tories in 2015 as it will demonstrate how badly SNP are affected by a lost referendum.

  9. phil

    I can already see the Labour pamphlets:

    Vote Lib Dem and get this – followed by a list of the most unpopular coalition measures.

    And, as I have mentioned before the LDs cannot say who they would support after the GE and, given the way they have acted they can hardly pretend neutrality.

    Seems to me that we are back to two main divisions again:

    Labour plus LD “left” / Tories plus LD “right” with UKIP possibly a far right party plus Con “far-right” and other minor parties on the edge.

  10. statso

    ” For the unionists to use this as an issue is pretty desperate. ”

    You should be flattered.

    Not sure that they are desperate though – they’re winning.

  11. Paul
    If you were on Trial for Serious fraud and a Public Figure decided to take that opportunity to say in the press what a brilliant person the chief witness for the prosecution was you would rightly be pissed off because it might influence the jury.
    It’s illegal and could be construed as attempting to pervert the course of justice.


    @Steve we are arguing the same point. The top part of my post was a quote from page 2. That’s why I said it’s for the jury to decide if there is a victim.

  12. @ Neil A
    A “Not Guilty” verdict doesn’t remotely equate to a decision from the jury that the “victim” wasn’t a “victim”.
    Thank you; you’ve saved me explaining this to @Paul.


    In this type of case it most certainly does. The case is to decide if any crime has taken place. No one is denying the money was spent (I assume). It is whether it was done with permission i.e. legally. The 2 quotes above I agree are the case usually, but not in this one.

  13. @Reg

    I doubt the SNP will suffer significantly.should they lose the referendum. I don’t think they believe they can win it. Of course, they are giving it their all and hope to win. But they probably don’t expect to win.

    what I suspect they expect is to lose by a respectable margin, 5-10% say. That will ratchet up the pressure for DevoMax – which most in Scotland appear to support.

  14. @Phil Haines

    Interesting, and strangely their (Labour in Scotland) Westminster VI is not rising, while the SNP Vi is rising, depending on which measure you use. Calendar months:

    Jul – Lab 40.5% – SNP 23.8%
    Jul – Lab 40.3% – SNP 25.7%
    Jul – Lab 38.2% – SNP 26.4%
    Jul – Lab 41.0% – SNP 24.6% (Labour conference blip?)
    Jul – Lab 38.2% – SNP 26.8%
    Jul – Lab 37.6% – SNP 27.0% (so far)

    The other parties don’t seem to be going anywhere fast. I doubt this latest Labour drop will last. They tend to hit 40% quite easily when the Labour news stories are positive.

    Posting this, I decided to pop up a chart showing since 2011. It makes for better analysis for all.

  15. @Pups

    No one is winning with these sorts of stories. That’s the problem. Had the SNP done something similar, I’d be just as miffed at them. The trouble is there has been quite a surge of unionist news this last week or so.

    It must have been the white paper.

  16. Food prices seem to rise and fall all the time anyway. It might be hard to pin down which change is due to what locally or globally.

    The argument might as well be “something’s going to happen if we do/don’t do this” (delete option as your argument requires).

  17. REG

    Why would we ” say that the Tories were to gain five Westminster seats at the next election” in Scotland?

    As far as Pete Wishart’s seat is concerned, a more important question is – could MP4 continue as a parliamentary band if their keyboard player lost his seat as well as their bass guitarist?

  18. statty – white paper

    I expect so – I have hardly put mine down. Its all grubby now.

    If I were voting I would vote for independence but a full break – maybe start speaking garlic again to make that clear.

    As someone born in Scotland but who feels very English then I have to say I don’t want you to leave.

    I think what seriously muddies the waters is the vexed question of what does independence mean.

    Reminds me of my own very good joke about a C OF e vicar explaining which bits of the bible he believed in, and saying:

    “Well, not that bit of course. Oh, gosh no! Not that bit. No, not that bit either – that is just silly. No, ………………………”

    I have no clear idea of what independence would actually mean.

  19. Paul Croft
    I suppose for those not involved in the Scots independence debate, the way to imagine what you would feel is (say) imagine it was we here in England wanted independence from the other three nations (Ulster, Wales, Scotland, leaving the other stuff IOM, etc aside), how would you feel about it?

    If you think ‘great, a bunch of stones around our neck gone’ then you have the answer to how the nationalists feel in the other nations.


    I’m actually surprised that it’s taken to more than half-way through their second term for the SNP to be behind in a Holyrood poll.

    While AW maintains that “this far out” polls for other than Westminster elections are pretty meaningless, I’m not sure that that necessarily is true in Scotland.

    It is the case, however, that before the next Scottish election, there’s a referendum and a UK election to take place, so a number of “game-changers” in the pipeline.

    Compared to the 2011 recalled vote, both Labour and SNP have attracted votes from the other 3 parties (Lab gaining more). Tories have lost 7% of that vote to UKIP, which would explain their reduced polling.

    While the number of people voting LD in 2011 was small, double the proportion of their voters is unsure as to how they will vote, compared with the other parties.

  21. Sun tweeting a new YG. C35 L39 LD9 UKIP11

  22. An idea worth importing from France.


    Un café …………………………….. €7,00
    Un café, s’il vous plait … ….€ 4,25
    Bonjour, un café, s’il vous plait .. €1,40

  23. @ Neil A

    Sun tweeting a new YG. C35 L39 LD9 UKIP11
    I did mention that Nigella is very popular. ;-)

  24. Howard.

    Yes, I agree.

    I think we are richer [socially, historically and so on] with them.

    I’d be sad to see any break up though I can see the rationale from the other side. But so many live here in England [and vice versa] that I feel we are very integrated – with the odd exception of course………………

  25. @Amber

    Stop saying that out loud, for Heaven’s sake..

  26. R & D:

    ”Whether Labour deserve or LDs mean it is not the issue I think. Politically – and they are politicians – a neutral stance would have worked better – and leave the vitriol to the Tories to hand out.”

    Oh, yes.

  27. @R&D,

    I think a lot of rather artificial emphasis is placed on the “differences” between the peoples of the Home Nations.

    Perhaps Scots and Welsh living in England aren’t representative, but they’re (for obvious reasons) the ones I mainly have experience of. I haven’t noticed any substantial difference in their behaviour or values. If it wasn’t for the accent I wouldn’t know they were “foreign”.

  28. neil a

    I’ve never noticed any surliness or lack of warmth when visiting Wales – which often gets a bad press.

    Same with Scotland – people are lovely there.

    [Just like us – LOL.]

  29. It’s beginning to look like the gap is narrowing again, with Con scores edging higher – at least in YG.

    Not altogether sure we are in polldrums.

  30. alec

    PM on telly

  31. It’s maybe just a renewal of Cameron climbing and Ed waning, as we saw prior to the conference season. Maybe it’s just the economic news starting to add up.

  32. It’s a little early to say, but it does beg the question of whether the whole late Summer “Price Freeze period” was a bit of a blip.

  33. D’oh! Late Autumn, not Late Summer.

  34. @Oldnat – transport was only one part of the Scottish food price issue. It seems that the bigger part is current SNP policy (the surcharge on the business rates, which is pretty substantial – 4 times bigger in effect than their proposed future corporation tax cut).

    The other big issue is diet. Scots eat less fresh produce, which is the most expensive to supply, so hitting margins (you still have all the supply chain costs, shared between fewer units). Scots also eat much more basic range items, where margins are lower. [One supermarket exec said that poor people in London eat more fresh produce that rich people in Scotland].

    The topic really has been done to death now on multiple threads. Given the known facts of the issue, we really ought to take it as a given that post independence supermarket prices are likely to edge higher compared to England.

    The point about Lidle and Aldi expanding in Scotland – of course they are, but I expect the same market fundamentals apply to them, so their prices will also likely be more in Scotland than in England.

    This really isn’t a complicated issue to understand, and I am surprised that so many seem to think it’s a negative Unionist propaganda scare story. It’s no such thing – just a very simple statement of likely consequences, based on straightforward market fundamentals.

    There are lots of great arguments for independence – food prices aren’t one of them. Lets stop trying to pretend everything would be wonderful after independence – some things would get worse.

  35. @Statgeek – yes – I would think it is the economy. I’m waiting for the latest consumer confidence data due shortly. This has worsened in the last 2 months, but perhaps is improving again?

  36. ”It’s beginning to look like the gap is narrowing again, with Con scores edging higher – at least in YG.

    Not altogether sure we are in polldrums.”

    But Labour are on 39, Alec. What of importance has changed?

  37. NEIL A

    You may well have stumbled on the difference between those living in Scotland, and those living elsewhere.

    Your Late Autumn is our Late Summer (the evening of 17 July).

    Your Early Autumn is our Early Summer (the morning of 17 July).

  38. Phil

    Ipsos-MORI also released their Holyrood figures separately from their referendum poll:

    Their constituency VI[1] percents (based on certain to vote[2] and change since September) are:

    Con 15 (+3)

    Lab 34 (-1)

    Lib Dem 7 (-)

    SNP 36 (-3)

    Green 4 (+2)

    UKIP 1 (-)[3]

    SSP 1 (-)

    which matches fairly closely to the YouGov ones. MORI’s smaller effective sample size and lack of political weighting will make their numbers move about more (eg the September Con and Green ones were clearly too low).

    I suspect what we’re seeing here is some consolidation, an effect of the referendum campaigning where the two main Parties are picking up Yes and No voters from the smaller Parties and indeed each other. Because the SNP and Labour are the dominant forces in Yes and No, their people will be getting more prominence and their identification with the two sides stronger.

    This would explain why the SNP’s vote is falling for Holyrood but rising for Westminster as the VIs for both converge.

    It clearly won’t happen completely, though even the Conservatives have lost some people and the Lib Dems have very few Yes voters left. It will also be interesting to see what happens after the referendum. That will depend on the result and how close it is, but paradoxically a loss might result in an increase for the SNP as it hangs on to Yes-voters and gains No-voters who voted SNP in 2011 and now feel it is ‘safe’ to vote for them again.

    I suspect however that this boost will only happen if the SNP campaign with the right inclusive tone. They will still be able run a Project Fear of course but it will have to be more “Oh, dearie, dearie me” than “You’re all doomed”.

    [1] They don’t even ask regional – you just get all these pointless leaders’ ratings which tell you the only one they’ve ever heard of is Salmond (and 7% claim even not to know of him)

    [2] The all VI figures have the Labour and SNP figures reversed, which emphasises them being neck and neck

    [3] UKIP’s higher 3% in YouGov presumably being the same internet effect we see with the rest of Britain.

  39. @ Neil A

    Stop saying that out loud, for Heaven’s sake..

  40. Not that I’m one to defend Cameron, but his comments on Nigella were in an interview with the Spectator. Irrespective of his intentions, it was the decision to publish that part of the interview which was questionable.

    BTW from what I’ve seen, many of the comments by “Team Nigella” have been along the lines of “If I was married to Saatchi then I would be taking drugs too” :-)

  41. ”It’s maybe just a renewal of Cameron climbing and Ed waning, as we saw prior to the conference season. Maybe it’s just the economic news starting to add up.”

    And ”Ed waning” Statgeek? Can failure to stop the Tories gaining a point or two from the other parties count as waning? Ed could maybe wane if he doesn’t produce another rabbit from the hat before too long (that’s opposition for you) but holding on to a stubborn 38 (+) throughout a parliament isn’t one of the symptoms of that.

  42. ALEC

    “Lets stop trying to pretend everything would be wonderful after independence”.

    I don’t know anyone who thinks that way, but assuming there are such people, then I agree with you.

    Just as you agree with me that those peddling the line that everything would be worse after independence are also living in cloud-cuckoo land (if they actually believe what they say).

  43. Hello all.

    Just back from the pub so apologies for not responding to any of the above responses earlier. Anyway the thread seems to have moved on so I won’t.

    Except to say that regardless of recent polling just about the best odds going on any political bet within GB just happens to be a Scottish one, namely the 4/5 on with Ladbrokes that the SNP will pick up at least one net seat at the next GE. Surely the LDs have to be strong odds-on to lose at least Gordon, with Malcolm Bruce standing down.

    Tonight’s YouGov: Cons picking up, but not at the expense of Lab. Hardly Ed waning then.

  44. r n
    re me and crossbatty not being bestest footballing chums, I am sure we have attended many CONFERENCE matches together, him up one end supporting
    Kiddy Harriers and me down the other supporting the incomparable Hereford United,

  45. ewen

    fairy nuff.

  46. @ROSIEANDDAISIE: “Seems to me that we are back to two main divisions again: Labour plus LD “left” / Tories plus LD “right” with UKIP possibly a far right party plus Con “far-right” and other minor parties on the edge.”

    I don’t think we’ll ever go back to the two-party system c.1970 where Labour and the Tories shared 90% of the votes, though. Even if the LibDems collapse it’s may benefit small parties like the Greens most or maybe no one at all.

  47. Though I don’t usually take much notice to local bye-elections as a pointer to the GE, however, the Lib Dems went from first to last with their last Lib Dem councillor in the Iver Village and Riching Park ward in South Bucks. From 772 votes to 101.

    A particularly bad result for the Lib Dems.

  48. @ Billy Bob

    “Yup, you were right, but to be fair I did subsequently trawl through YouTube and watch (amongst other things) Julia Brownley spending a day as security officer at John Adams Middle School and revise my opinion. You were asking for feedback on candidates for a funding supplement, so I gave you my superficial first impressions, lol. And… I did pick Dr Ruiz out of a large field (whom you at the time thought stood only a very outside chance of sucess).”

    You point out the truth, brother. I was skeptical of Dr. Ruiz’s chances until I noticed how you and some others on here really liked him (he’s got this Ben Franklin thing going on) and I realized just how much draw he had. And his fundraising right now is amazing btw. He’s raised more money than anyone else in the delegation. And I think the only Dem in the House who has raised more money than him is Patrick Murphy, who’s fundraising continues to astound me.

    Your feedback is good. It helps me because you have a great outside observer view. My view will always be inherently biased.

    “Thanks for your post, Julia reminds me of one of my sister’s friends. Good to hear you are rubbing shoulders with all the right people these days!”

    Lol, I wish. It was just one of those moments. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) comes over to talk to Julia Brownley (D-Oak Park) who’s sitting in my aisle. If only I was involved in the conversation, this would be a dream.

    She’s gotten lucky actually in that her opponent from 2012 who was a one time Senate candidate and considered a very strong contender has forgone a rematch and isn’t running in 2014. That will help her but she’s still going to have a tough reelection.

    Henry Waxman announced he was running for reelection yesterday. :) If you’re on Twitter and want to say nice things about him, make sure to use the hashtag #Waxman2014.

  49. Con 35
    Lab 39
    Lib 9
    UKIP 11
    App -21

    As predicted, Labour are above 40% in Scotland. SNP at 21%, Con staying high on 23%, with the Libs bouncing back down to their more normal single figures on 7%.

    So the usual cross-break mayhem.

    Other point of interest. Con on 41% in M&W, with Lab on 37%. That’s a four point Con lead, following three Labour poll leads of 9, 15 and 15, so the mayhem isn’t just Scottish.

  50. AW- sun tweeting > 3/5 think would be worse off under Labour in a yougov poll. I can’t find the poll on the site. Please can you give me a link?

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