There are three YouGov polls out today, Britain, Scotland and Wales. Starting with the regular daily poll for the Sun, GB voting intentions stand at CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – a five point Labour lead, the third in a row from YouGov. Full tabs are here.

There was a second YouGov poll in the Times, this one a Scottish poll on referendum voting intentions. YouGov have the YES vote at 33% (up one point since September), the NO vote at 52% (no change). Excluding won’t votes and don’t knows the figures are YES 39%, NO 61%. This is the first YouGov poll since the independence white paper and clearly shows no significant change in referendum voting intentions. John Curtice has a nice summary of the three post-white paper polls we’ve seen so far on his blog here – a little narrowing in the lastest wave of polls, but “a touch on the tiller, rather than a game changer”. Full tabs for the YouGov poll are here.

Finally there is a new YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, the first of a regular series of Welsh voting intention polls. Welsh voting intentions are:

Westminster – CON 21%, LAB 46%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 12%, UKIP 10%
Welsh Assembly constituency – CON 19%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, Plaid 20%, UKIP 7%
Welsh Assembly regional – CON 19%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Plaid 15%, UKIP 10%

No changes from the previous poll as YouGov have changed how they prompt their Welsh assembly polls, as we explored yesterday. More generally the Westminster figures represent a 7.5 point swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the general election (not wildly dissimilar from the GB national picture), while the Welsh Assembly figures suggest an improvement for UKIP, but not a vast change for the other parties – if repeated at a Welsh assembly election Labour would retain the same number of seats they won in 2011, just short of an overall majority. Full Welsh tabs are here.


225 Responses to “New YouGov British, Scottish and Welsh polls”

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  1. Might as repeat this on the right thread. It’s always the way. You wait weeks for a poll from the celtic fringe and then…

    YouGov’s Scottish independence poll (another quarterly Scottish poll reminding us it’s now about nine months to the date)shows no real movement at all from September’s figures of:

    Yes 32% No 52% DK 13%

    to 6-9 December:

    Yes 33% No 52% DK 13%

    so if we’re talking movement it’s at the level of rounding and way within MoE

    AS Anthony says, John Curtice on his blog wondered if together with the MORI and (non-BSP) Progressive ones this indicates a slight post-White Paper shift. But he gives the impression of a man becalmed in the polldrums desperately chasing the slightest breath of breeze in an attempt to make things interesting.

  2. I am going to comment on the Scottish poll (GHM), It seems to me that if the Yes proponents could eventually get their support into the 40s and the Nos into the 50s (high and low respectively would be the ice on the cake) then they will come out of it as well as they could hope and would be in an excellent bargaining position for devo ‘even more max’. I suppose the champagne would be opened in 2015 if they then found they could make a deal with a minority Labour government. However, I get the impression that Slabs hate the SNP even more than Norbold and LizH hate the LDs.

    Yes it would be nice to see a red dragon on the top sometimes.

  3. I was of course assuming the 45 and 55 to be a result (so indeed ignoring the DNs and DKs).

  4. To put this in context of “momentum”, not only is the movement from the last poll within margin of error, this is an identical headline result to the YouGov poll on the independence question taken in January of 2012.

  5. Ahh, the calming image of a Saltire.

  6. It does rather feel like the Scots have made up their minds. I guess it’s probably one of those things most people have fairly defined views on. How common is it to find a Scot who “isn’t bothered” whether Scotland is independent or not?

  7. I wonder how many of the DK’s on the Scottish Independence Question are actually going to make their minds up and then even actually vote?

    Probably too early to tell. Perhaps their fancy would be tickled by a third option? (“Maybe”?)

  8. rog

    Re TOH and posting, I am sure we all react in a similar way.

    Its no different than footy supporters leaving the stadium early [or, in my case, not watching MOD if Arsenal have lost – even if all the reports say they played brilliantly]

  9. @Neil A

    Perhaps more common that we might imagine. A friend of mine who gave up voting 10 years ago has the attitude that regardless of which government, party or leader is in, we will get shafted.

    His own situation is such that any of the above will not interfere with him too much anyway (he’s in an occupation where people will always need his skills).

  10. AW,
    has there ever been a time where a single party has held such a stable percentage for so long. Labour seem to have been between 37-40% within moe, bar the odd outlier, for more than three years.

    It really is polldrum continuity.

  11. Excluding won’t votes and don’t knows the figures are YES 39%, NO 61%.
    ————–
    No should be aiming for 2/3rds of actual votes because that would be decisive.

  12. Rosieanddaisie

    You are of course partially correct and i agree that most who post on here react in the same way. However part of the reason i have not posted much over the last two months is that i have been very busy at the allotments and with my other hobbies.

  13. @Amber Star
    Yes that’s what I think, which is why I dared to post. Changing that 60 to a 50 ‘something’ must be the minimum target for the Yes camp.

    On the YouGov leader results in the tables, they really are appalling for all (worst of course for the LD leader). It seems to me that the very poor scores on ‘leadership’ and ‘strength’ are only slightly better for David Cameron because he is actually in the job of PM, so gets the air time.

    To be honest, if anyone knew who she was, I reckon Mrs Kellner would get better figures on those items. John Kerry was clearly impressed with her for a start.

  14. On Australian Holdens etc from the previous thread:

    Looking at balance of trade figures recently I was rather surprised to see that Australia runs a consistent deficit not that much less than the UK and a good half of that deficit is cars.
    I had assumed that Aus would be running a surplus because of all those lovely commodities but it seems they have an overvalued exchange rate.
    A bit like us, particularly looking back to when we had a lot of oil.
    I think they’d be well advised to defend manufacturing industry to avoid getting into the mess that we’re in.
    The auto industry looks in dire straits – Ford have already announced they’re stopping manufacture, now GM have done likewise which leaves only Toyota. And Toyota are saying manufacturing is unlikely to be sustainable because of component manufacturers going the way of Ford and Holden.

  15. GuyMonde
    Is what happens in Australia (barring….I can’t think of anything special) of the slightest significance to we here?

  16. On my usual theme of being beware of the press, just read this on Huffington Post

    Cameron and Mandela take a selfie with Denmark’s PM at Mandela memorial”

    Er….

  17. @ Howard

    I think we’ve deliberately not been mentioning the ‘selfie’ thing. UKPR felt like the only place in the world where we could go to avoid it! ;-)

  18. Amber
    So sorry so I won’t do any on sign language then?

  19. Talking of things other than “selfies”, this from Chris Waddle:

    “”Argentine striker Higuain decided to come to Napoli from Real Madrid. He’s done OK since he’s been here. He pulls off centre-halves very well ”

    Oo-er Missis.

  20. HoWard

    Apparently not :p

  21. Anyway, I know DC went to boarding school etc but he should know better than to have a selfie when sitting next to Helle thorning-Schmidt in public.. Its just not correct etiquette at all.

  22. @HuffPostUKPol: Morrisons says food prices could fall in an independent Scotland

    Didn’t take long for someone to break ranks

  23. GuyMonde
    Apparently, according to what I learn from my friends in Australia, the whole possible tension between Australia and China (and any other country in the world) is being solved by each country’s citizens falling in love and marrying each other.

  24. Howard
    Perhaps I should seek out a nice Scottish girl and save on the groceries

  25. She’s taken. :-p

  26. GuyMonde

    As long as she cannot play bagpipes. Perhaps you are not aware that the Dutch name for these environmental nuisances is ‘doodlezakken’. Such a descriptive language.

  27. I cheated a bit with the spelling for phonetic purposes – it’s doedelzak but it sounds the same (unfortunately).

  28. Only one nice girl in Scotland?
    Actually I quite like bagpipes but you probably worked out I was odd.

  29. “the whole possible tension between Australia and China (and any other country in the world) is being solved by each country’s citizens falling in love and marrying each other.”

    I wouldn’t marry an Australian just to save the world.

    Blimey.

  30. Paul Croft
    Nowt so queer as folk – take voting for instance. Say I live in Reigate constituency and I support, well, anyone else but Con. It’s just simply a waste of time, even filling in a postal vote. Yet people do, at the last election some 23000 of them. Think of it. 23,000 people taking all that trouble, for what?

  31. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead at 6: CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%

    Getting boring, We need the occasional outlier !

  32. My reply to you Paul had the word ‘q*er’ in it so it went straight into purgatory. Doubtless it will emerge.

  33. R Huckle
    I am surprised that Sun bloke had enough time spare to tweet it.

    He’s been too busy delivering sex*st insults to some Labour sweetie (that’s a wry joke Amber).

    Gosh, Labour surge to 39 eh?

  34. If that tweet is correct, here are the five poll rolling averages:

    Con 32.6
    Lab 39.2
    LD 9.4
    UKIP 12.6

    Lab Lead 6.6

    Same old, same old.

  35. I still think that, if a lot more people decided to vote Tory in 2015 they could still win the general election.

    Especially if Labour lost some of their own VI. at the same time.

    [and I hope there is a first time visitor to read the above ‘cos this is the place to learn about polling.]

  36. 39% in favour of independence is actually much higher than I would have thought! A figure I’ve often heard mentioned in regard to safeguarding Scottish devolution is to achieve over 40%, which I had always assumed to be a big ask until I saw this poll. Any idea how reliable a figure this 39-61 split might be?

  37. By the way, courtesy of owr dad we are offering twelve, FREE xmas tips for xmas.

    We are starting with number twelve in case they’re not as popular as dad predicts.

    FREE xmas tip, no. 12.

    To avoid xmas a good idea is a pretend contagious illness [or better still, if you can manage it, a real one.]

    Make sure you cannot see any visitors, that you need to be confined to your room but – very important – that it a disease that still allows you to eat and drink a lot and ask for copious supplies of both to be left on a tray outside your room.

    When anyone says stuff like “How are you dear?” be sure to answer in a weak voice but, if your illness is fake, not so weak that a doctor is sent for.

    ………………………………………………………………………………..

    I was going to do “How to avoid walking the dogs” next but the gurls say they can’t find the final draft.

    So next up is “How to explain you’ve bought the pups a new guitar.”

  38. If this is a thread about Brtitain, Scotland and Wales why have we not got the Union Jack?

  39. Britain with one T.

  40. @Coupar2802 – “Didn’t take long for someone to break ranks”

    Morrison’s haven’t really. What they actually said was –

    “If an independent Scotland increased or decreased regulation or taxes we’d have to take a second look at our pricing. Clearly that could work for or against Scottish customers depending on the direction of travel.”

    So they are saying that prices could go up, or down, depending on what policy framework is in place. Asda, who previously said they had no current plans to increase Scottish prices reiterated this, although it’s important to note that they did not go back on their statements that Scotland is a more difficult market, with lower margins. In particular, apart from diet and geography, they also said that the proposed cut in Corporation Tax would only save around a quarter of the additional cost of the additional business rate charge they have to pay in Scotland.

    So the position today is as it was. Scotland is currently more expensive for supermarkets to operate in, and current and future policies of the SNP add to these costs. While no one has confirmed they definitely would raise prices post independence, several supermarkets have indicated that in due course, this is likely.

    Nationalist claims that Scottish supermarkets are competitive and will keep prices down through competition is correct, but so is the market in England. England is a vastly bigger market, and more profitable, so much more important to the main players. If reducing prices in England boosts market share, then increasing prices to reflect local conditions in Scotland will look very attractive.

    I would agree that some of the reporting of this is not accurate. Independence seems likely to increase Scottish food distribution costs, but this isn’t guaranteed. However, the response also demonstrates the one eyed approach of the Nats. The quote seized upon as evidence that the claims are bogus is actually nothing of the kind. It would have been equally valid to use the headline ‘Morrison’s confirm food prices may increase in independent Scotland’.

    The other imponderable of course, is that England could alter policy, one way or the other, so relative to England, Scottish prices could also rise, fall or stay the same.

    Best to stick to what we know;
    – Scotland is a more expensive place to run supermarket chains.
    – Current SNP policy decreases margins
    – Future SNP commitments maintain additional costs on supermarkets
    – The big chains currently don’t find this sufficiently burdensome to split prices between England and Scotland
    – Post independence this becomes more attractive, both to increase margins in Scotland, and increase market share in England
    – Therefore, industry spokespeople and independent experts expect Scottish food retail prices to rise

    It’s really quite simple.

  41. MATHEW

    The rolling average of the most recent polls from the 6 BPC members with referendum polling is

    Yes 40% : No 60% (excluding Don’t Knows)

    or, including the undecideds
    Yes 33% : No 49% ; Don’t Knows 18%

  42. Has there ever been a previous Parliament where UKIP have maintained this sort of consistent support in the polls over such a length of time? There has been some spikes and minor troughs, but they’ve been anywhere between 10-18% for nigh on 18 months now, performing well in parliamentary by-elections and the local council elections. They’re slowly mutating from a single issue party to one that has something to say on a range of issues and they’re starting to resemble a right wing party in their own right, not some ramshackle and transitory repository for disaffected Tories.

    I’m starting to think that we may well be seeing a structural re-alignment of the centre-right in British politics and it will be fascinating to see how this develops between the Euro elections in May 2014 and the General Election in May 2015. Should Farage and his troops be emboldened by a strong showing in the Euros next May, he will have yet more foot soldiers and activists on the ground, nationwide, chomping at the bit for the 2015 election. UKIP elected representatives will start to seem normal rather than isolated oddities and the political landscape will start to change in this country, maybe for good.

    I was trying to think what the worst case scenario for UKIP would be in May 2015 and, of course, it would be the election of a majority Tory Government. Farage will be absolutely desperate to prevent this happening because, as far his party and personal political ambitions are concerned, it would be goodnight Vienna if Cameron walked back into Downing Street with a decent majority. His right wing would be unleashed and he’d be waving the promise of an EU Referendum around. Farage has simply got to stop that and if he can convince enough of the country’s innately conservative vote that they have been serially betrayed by Tory Party, then I reckon he could hang on to a surprisingly high proportion of the 13% or so of the electorate who have loyally stuck to him thus far. If he can. he’s going to be lobbing a giant sized grenade into the May 2015 election.

    Farage’s best case scenario? A majority Labour Government with a clear centre left, pro-Europe agenda and a mortally wounded Tory Party grimly contemplating a fifth consecutive election without a victory. Then it’s all bets off for Nigel and his boys.

    But he has to shaft Cameron’s Tories first.

  43. Maybe supermarkets can’t make as great a profit in Scotland but it doesn’t follow that prices must rise. I dare say costs in, say, London are also higher than in some other places. Unless they establish an illegal cartel and conspire not to compete against each other in an independent Scotland, they may just have to accept a smaller return on their investments.

  44. @Alec

    I thought we had agreed to differ. If a chain sets up in the central belt to supply Glasgow and Edinburgh, it’s cheaper than supplying to many parts of England. If I can rebutt your hyphenated bullets, one by one:

    – The question is the scale, so the statement should be “Scotland may be a more expensive place to run supermarket chains, if you want to include remote areas of the mainland and the Islands”.

    – On alcohol and/or cigarettes only, and while a good earner, they’re not the bread and butter (excuse the pun) of supermarkets’ income. E-Cigarettes might render tobacco products more trouble than worth in the next few years anyway. Sainburys originally stopped selling tobacco at some stores and have since reversed their decision, due to the drop in custom.

    – Future – See previous point

    – I can’t say that I know. We should all compare prices of identical goods, bought within a few days of each other. London prices might be more expensive for all I know. Or rural ones might be more expensive. The likely scenario is that the central belt with absorb some of the costs for rural Scotland. Rural Scotland has less of a welfare bill and pays more tax per capita. Swings and roundabouts.

    – Scots will generally shop at the most convenient place, but generally where there’s one chain, there’s another, and they aren’t keen to part with cash (apparently – not sure where that myth came from). So by and large, and if we consider Aldi, Lidl and the others, there will be competition.

    – Of course prices will rise. They almost always do, so that statement is a red herring. Will they rise disproportionately to rises elsewhere due to Independence? Like I say, it will depend on whether chains get serious about distribution within Scotland. Prior to the big chains, farming chains supplied dairy products (Mackies Ice Cream anyone? – They used to supply most of the milk to the NE of Scotland – Perhaps they still do).

    If the supermarkets become uncompetitive, the smaller players will fill the gaps. The only way the consumer can lose, is if the former are able to raise prices and undercut the rest.

    Sainsburys, to my knowledge is mainly UK based, while Asda and Aldi are international (or part of an international group). Sainsburys have no distribution centres in Scotland. Based on that info, we might expect them to be less than keen on Independence. I don’t expect the others will be overly bothered.

    It’s one of those unknown quantities, and to be honest if it had been a unanimous statement from all the supermarkets (not just the biggest ones), I might have believed it more. With the Better Together campaign seizing every ‘bad news story’ out there, you might understand why many dismiss them until there’s reasonable evidence, such as them not expanding until the referendum is past.

    Tesco are kick starting their banking in Edinburgh. Inverness is known as ‘Tescotown’, despite it being the most remote city in the UK (90+ miles from Perth or Aberdeen, and 120+ from Glasgow or Edinburgh).

    Sainsburys are also investing in banking in Edinburgh, and have plans to expand, with more stores planned for Scotland (and other parts of England).

    Asda are expanding in Larkhall, Dundee and Fraserburgh.

    Morrisons have new stores in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Kirkcaldy, and they plan to focus more on small stores (they bought 49 Blockbuster outlets across the UK).

    Aldi have opened stores in Dundee, Paisley, Falkirk, and plan to open another in Greenock next year.

    Lidl have been looking to add 500 new jobs in Scotland, expand their distribution centre and open another store in East Dunbartonshire. Lidl export Scottish goods to other European countries (£100 million of whisky per year, so maybe they can offset the SNP tax that way).

    Now I’m sure independence will cause a little upheaval, but I don’t see any of those looking to pull out, and if they increase prices, the shoppers will shop around, so they’ll have to be very careful.

    I like these nightly posts. :))

  45. @Alec

    I thought we had agreed to differ. If a chain sets up in the central belt to supply Glasgow and Edinburgh, it’s cheaper than supplying to many parts of England. If I can rebutt your hyphenated bullets, one by one:

    – The question is the scale, so the statement should be “Scotland may be a more expensive place to run supermarket chains, if you want to include remote areas of the mainland and the Islands”.

    – On booze and/or fags only, and while a good earner, they’re not the bread and butter (excuse the pun) of supermarkets’ income. E-Cigs might render real cigs more trouble than worth in the next few years anyway. Sainburys originally stopped selling tobacco at some stores and have since reversed their decision, due to the drop in custom.

    – Future – See previous point

    – I can’t say that I know. We should all compare prices of identical goods, bought within a few days of each other. London prices might be more expensive for all I know. Or rural ones might be more expensive. The likely scenario is that the central belt with absorb some of the costs for rural Scotland. Rural Scotland has less of a welfare bill and pays more tax per capita. Swings and roundabouts.

    – Scots will generally shop at the most convenient place, but generally where there’s one chain, there’s another, and they aren’t keen to part with cash (apparently – not sure where that myth came from). So by and large, and if we consider Aldi, Lidl and the others, there will be competition.

    – Of course prices will rise. They almost always do, so that statement is a red herring. Will they rise disproportionately to rises elsewhere due to Independence? Like I say, it will depend on whether chains get serious about distribution within Scotland. Prior to the big chains, farming chains supplied dairy products (Mackies Ice Cream anyone? – They used to supply most of the milk to the NE of Scotland – Perhaps they still do).

    If the supermarkets become uncompetitive, the smaller players will fill the gaps. The only way the consumer can lose, is if the former are able to raise prices and undercut the rest.

    Sainsburys, to my knowledge is mainly UK based, while Asda and Aldi are international (or part of an international group). Sainsburys have no distribution centres in Scotland. Based on that info, we might expect them to be less than keen on Independence. I don’t expect the others will be overly bothered.

    It’s one of those unknown quantities, and to be honest if it had been a unanimous statement from all the supermarkets (not just the biggest ones), I might have believed it more. With the Better Together campaign seizing every ‘bad news story’ out there, you might understand why many dismiss them until there’s reasonable evidence, such as them not expanding until the referendum is past.

    Tesco are kick starting their banking in Edinburgh. Inverness is known as ‘Tescotown’, despite it being the most remote city in the UK (90+ miles from Perth or Aberdeen, and 120+ from Glasgow or Edinburgh).

    Sainsburys are also investing in banking in Edinburgh, and have plans to expand, with more stores planned for Scotland (and other parts of England).

    Asda are expanding in Larkhall, Dundee and Fraserburgh.

    Morrisons have new stores in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Kirkcaldy, and they plan to focus more on small stores (they bought 49 Blockbuster outlets across the UK).

    Aldi have opened stores in Dundee, Paisley, Falkirk, and plan to open another in Greenock next year.

    Lidl have been looking to add 500 new jobs in Scotland, expand their distribution centre and open another store in East Dunbartonshire. Lidl export Scottish goods to other European countries (£100 million of whisky per year, so maybe they can offset the SNP tax that way).

    Now I’m sure independence will cause a little upheaval, but I don’t see any of those looking to pull out, and if they increase prices, the shoppers will shop around, so they’ll have to be very careful.

    I like these nightly posts. :))

  46. @AW

    No idea why post is in moderation. You have to let us know the words to avoid. There’s nothing controversial or partisan in the post.

  47. cross batty

    Interesting post and, as soon as you think about it, obvious.

    Add in the apparent dislike between NF and DC and the former’s tactics will be very interesting indeed.

    Fascinating year ahead with Council and Europe elections plus the jolly old Scottish conundrum.

  48. guymonde

    “Only one nice girl in Scotland?”

    And that, of course, is Ms Amber Star.

    [As a Labour supporter I always stick up for my own…..]

  49. It remains my opinion that within twenty years there will be a return to two-party politics in Britain. I won’t speculate as to names, but there will be a centre-left, social democratic party which is pro-Europe, pro-civil liberties anti-war and supports progressive taxation and a strong public sector.

    There will then be a solidly right-wing, traditionalist conservative party which is anti-Europe, rather authoritarian on social matters, pro-business and anti-welfare state. Which of the two right-wing parties form that coalition will be decided over the next couple of GEs.

    There simply isn’t room for the kind of social-centrist, fiscal libertarianism that the Lib Dems seem to be promoting nowadays. It’s not a popular enough position to appeal to anyone who wouldn’t subscribe to the FT and has little support in the country as a whole.

    Really, I think it’s bad for democracy. But for hardliners on both sides I think it’s something to be pretty pleased about.

  50. @MrNameless,

    That looks more like what you want to happen than what will happen. Have you conjured up a left-wing party of your dreams, and pitted it against the right-wing party that represents everything you think is wrong with the world?

    What about pro-business, pro-EU types? What about hard left anti-EU types? What about those (like me) who are economic and social liberals, but relatively eurosceptic?

    I think it’s possible there will be a realignment in politics (although I think its just as likely that UKIP will recede and the LDs gradually recover) but I don’t think it will look as you say. More likely a period of Labour hegemony if things stay as they are (particularly if a new Labour government implements some additional wizard wheezes like using population not register voters for electoral boundaries and giving votes to 16 year olds). Then, eventually, an electoral earthquake after the voters get fed up of one-party rule on 1/3 of the popular vote.

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