There are three YouGov polls out today, Britain, Scotland and Wales. Starting with the regular daily poll for the Sun, GB voting intentions stand at CON 34%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12% – a five point Labour lead, the third in a row from YouGov. Full tabs are here.

There was a second YouGov poll in the Times, this one a Scottish poll on referendum voting intentions. YouGov have the YES vote at 33% (up one point since September), the NO vote at 52% (no change). Excluding won’t votes and don’t knows the figures are YES 39%, NO 61%. This is the first YouGov poll since the independence white paper and clearly shows no significant change in referendum voting intentions. John Curtice has a nice summary of the three post-white paper polls we’ve seen so far on his blog here – a little narrowing in the lastest wave of polls, but “a touch on the tiller, rather than a game changer”. Full tabs for the YouGov poll are here.

Finally there is a new YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, the first of a regular series of Welsh voting intention polls. Welsh voting intentions are:

Westminster – CON 21%, LAB 46%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 12%, UKIP 10%
Welsh Assembly constituency – CON 19%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%, Plaid 20%, UKIP 7%
Welsh Assembly regional – CON 19%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, Plaid 15%, UKIP 10%

No changes from the previous poll as YouGov have changed how they prompt their Welsh assembly polls, as we explored yesterday. More generally the Westminster figures represent a 7.5 point swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the general election (not wildly dissimilar from the GB national picture), while the Welsh Assembly figures suggest an improvement for UKIP, but not a vast change for the other parties – if repeated at a Welsh assembly election Labour would retain the same number of seats they won in 2011, just short of an overall majority. Full Welsh tabs are here.


225 Responses to “New YouGov British, Scottish and Welsh polls”

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  1. cg

    sounds dramatic – but with Labour around 40% then 60% kneejerk negative is what one would expect.

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  2. I am one of many on here who concluded a couple of years ago (esp after the boundaries not changed) that the key measure to look at in all the polls is the Labour score and the trend for different pollsters.
    As others have noted the Cons seems to be gaining a the expense of others but Labour are steady at 38-40% on YG – In that sense we are where we were before the conference season when Ed grabbed the narrative and widened the gap with his focus on cost of living and energy companies in particular.
    The good news for Lab, though, is that the gradual decline in VI to the 38-40 level has been arrested as the 3-4% lost was softer anyhow and further erosions will be more difficult for the opponents to secure.
    The encouraging news for the Cons (LDs a little if they get any credit) could be the approval rating back in the early -20s. The Governing parties will hope that begrudging approval coupled with earnings moving to positive real numbers sometime next year will see a few current Labour supporters switch their VI.

    The Euro Elections and probable 3rd place for the Cons and bad 4th (or worse) for the LDs will interrupt any flow back and the Scotland Referendum may have some influence on Westminster VI plus the Autumn 2014 conferences of course so it will be hard to work out what is really happening.

    March/early April and polls in early September then December, will be the ones to watch and can Labour stay above 38% on YG.

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  3. Surely no prospect of LDs holding 4th place in the Euros – the Greens are too strong and LD support has collapsed.

    Which means the likely Euro-outcome is currently the very weird looking:

    1st: Lab
    2nd: UKIP
    3rd: Con
    4th: Green
    5th: Lib Dem

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  4. Interesting local election result last night.
    Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough – Arbury:

    C 395, Lab 369, Ukip 109, Green 56, BNP 35, Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 8, English Democrats 6.

    C gain from Lab. Swing 13.6 per cent Lab to C.
    Elsewhere the Conservatives lost a seat to an Independant.

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  5. @ MrNameless

    If Anthony says UKIP are going to win the Euros (I’m not quite sure with what degree of probability he said that) then I’m going along with him as he always seems to be very cautious in making predictions!

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  6. @THE OTHER HOWARD
    Interesting local election result last night.
    Nuneaton and Bedworth Borough – Arbury:
    C 395, Lab 369, Ukip 109, Green 56, BNP 35, Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 8, English Democrats 6.
    C gain from Lab. Swing 13.6 per cent Lab to C.
    Elsewhere the Conservatives lost a seat to an Independant.

    Maybe I’m in Groundhog Day politics – but I thought that result was last week?

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  7. Could be, I only glanced at it, still interesting.

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  8. @Paul,

    Re: Jury verdicts and victimhood.

    I recognise that there are cases where the defence argue “the crime happened but someone else did it” and cases where the defence argue “the crime never happened in the first place”. But that isn’t the whole story.

    The jury are not being asked to decide that crime definitely didn’t happen. They are being if they are sure that the crime did happen, and also if they are sure that the perpetrators committed the crime with the appropriate mental knowledge and understanding of what they were doing. In law this is known as actus reas and mens rea.

    A good example (given my background) would be child sexual abuse. These are cases where it is definitely a case of “it happened or it didn’t” and not a question of whether the police have the right suspect. Just because a suspect is not charged, or is charged and not convicted, doesn’t mean that the abuse never happened. In fact, it is perfectly possible (and indeed the norm) for a victim to be paid a substantial sum in Criminal Injuries Compensation even where no conviction is secured.

    Once you’ve reported a crime to the police, you are officially a “victim of crime” unless the police subsequently conclude that the report should be classified as a “No Crime”. The only way the state could officially remove your “status” would be if the person accused successfully sued you for libel/defamation.

    I engage in a constant guerilla war against the notion that “innocent until proven guilty” is some sort of scientific formula rather than merely a soundbite designed to encourage respectful treatment of those accused of crimes.

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  9. @TheOtherHoward

    That election result was from last week. However, there was another by-election last night in the same borough for a county council seat. Here’s what happened:

    Bedworth West
    Labour: 904
    Conservative: 353
    UKIP: 142
    TUSC: 46

    Other results last night include Tories gaining a seat from Lib Dems in South Bucks and wiping them off the council in the process.

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  10. @ MrNameless

    “Surely no prospect of LDs holding 4th place in the Euros”

    What polling evidence are you basing that on, other than your innate prejudice?

    All the polls I’ve seen have shown us ahead of the Greens for the Euros. You could be surprised, given the fact that the Lib Dems are the only ones to consistently support EU membership. One poll back in May had us on 18%. I don’t believe that for the moment, but 11-12% might be possible, which would be respectable under the circumstances of electoral polarisation towards extreme left and right at present.

    [There is] a rather nasty tendency [snip] towards an aggressive verbal bullying and taunting of the Lib Dems on this site. It’s not nice and I wish people would grow out of it.

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  11. AKMD

    Many thanks, also interesting, was it a Labour gain or a hold and what was the swing?

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  12. On that Arbury by-election – according to the Nuneaton & Bedworth Council website:

    There was a lowly turnout of just 17.74% of voters meaning less than 1,000 took part.

    #justsaying

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  13. Populus:

    Lab 38 Con 33 LD 13 UKIP 9

    So I think 5 polls this week with a Lab lead of 5, one with a 4 and one with an 8. If it looks like a 5 and talks like a 5 then it must be a 5.

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  14. @AW
    I see you are ‘around’. Does the Sun / ST YouGov schedule continue over the feasts or is there a break?

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  15. Howard – comes to a stop next weekend and starts up again in January.

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  16. Bedworth West by-elec main elec
    Lab 904 1219
    Con 353 569
    UKIP 142 Green 173
    TU &socs against cuts 46 139

    I make that a swing from con to lab of 3.7% since earlier this year.

    since 2009 where BNP were a big factor (but no UKIP) I reckon the swing is 16.8% con to lab

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  17. I am currently suffering with a rotten ole Lonnie Donnegan song in my head – dunno where it came from but I don’t like it.

    As these song virueses are contagious be sure to read no further >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    PUTTING ON THE STYLE.

    Enjoy.

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  18. @The Other Howard

    “Many thanks, also interesting, was it a Labour gain or a hold and what was the swing?”

    It was a Labour hold…but: this is the comparison to the 2009 result (the last time it was fought):

    2009
    Liberal Democrat (289 votes / 11.31%)
    Conservative (776 votes / 30.37%)
    BNP (427 votes / 16.71%)
    Labour (889 votes / 34.79%)
    Green (174 votes / 6.81%)

    2013
    Conservative (353 votes / 24.43%)
    Labour (904 votes / 62.56%)
    Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts (46 votes / 3.18%)
    UKIP (142 votes / 9.83%)

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  19. yes well
    I’ll work out how to format on this site in due course :p

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  20. Sorry, scrub that!

    Read Guymonde instead!

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  21. Thanks Norbold and Guymonde

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  22. from pg 4 of thread

    RAF

    I agree with your analysis but what I asked was whether the referendum might make tactical voters not vote. If this were the case the Perth and North Perthshire seat would almost certainly fall to the Tories as it is about the only seat in Scotland where the Tories are held out by tactical voting.

    Old Nat

    I must say that I quite admire Pete Wishart’s musical achievements myself. I am not sure that I can agree with his political achievements… PM Questions the week before last.

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  23. @ Roger Mexico

    “The reason why Cameron’s comments were ‘unfortunate’ is that he was discussing and praising a witness whose veracity was a central point of the trial. As Prime Minister his views would be thought to carry a great deal of influence. ‘Unfortunate is typically vague bit of judgespeak (good word!) which usually means “I’m not happy though I’m not going to do anything about it (but don’t even think about doing it again)”.[1]”

    Richard Nixon once did that with the Manson Family. It causes a problem when trying to have unbiased jurors.

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  24. SoCal
    What, Nixon said he was on ‘Team Manson’ ?

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