We finally have a Scottish post-white paper poll from a BPC member: Ipsos MORI have released their regular Scottish public opinion monitor, conducted in the week following the publication of the white paper.

Amongst those certain to vote referendum voting intention is YES 34%(+3), NO 57%(-2). Changes are from the previous MORI poll in September. This represents a slight shift towards the YES campaign in the last three months, though given MORI tend to show one of the largest leads for the No campaign this still leaves them with a 23 point lead.

If the same trend is repeated in other post-white paper polls from companies that tend to show a tigher race we could see some interesting polls. Then again, this is just one poll and the changes are within the margin of error, so we may very well find other polls don’t show the same sort of movement at all. Time will tell.


106 Responses to “Ipsos MORI Scottish referendum poll – YES 34, NO 57”

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  1. That’s ok Mr Mint. Most people here are nice so its a pleasure usually.

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  2. STATGEEK

    That debate has a sort of Carmichael flavour to it.

    I remember that debate. Nicola is great when debating and I personally find her to be more formidable than Eck.

    .

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  3. For a long, long time I had no time for her at all, but her opposition in the debates I have seen (not that many) have been woeful.

    Sarwar seems to be more interested in trying to put his opposite number off, than debating the issues in a grown up fashion. In the end, the ‘debate’ we were promised was nothing more than a fishing expedition on whether or not he could ‘get under her skin’.

    All too often we hear politicians say “let’s have a grown up debate”, usually on QT, but when faced with one, most are completely lacking. Having said that, I admired her self-control.

    If Sarwar had really been interested in getting to the bottom of things, he would have let her dig a hole for herself (assuming he can set her up to do so). The corporation tax subject is still pretty cloudy.

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  4. STATGEEK

    “All too often we hear politicians say “let’s have a grown up debate”, usually on QT, but when faced with one, most are completely lacking”
    _____

    Well at least you can be assured of a grown up debate on here, well most of the time. ;-)

    Yes her opposition opponents have been woeful and Sarwar does have a sort of an annoying way of debating just like Jim Murphy, they come across as being too nice but very patronising with it.

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  5. Spearmint,

    The issue of whether Scotland is a notably “left wing” part of the UK is complicated. When the question is examined in terms of what people think, rather than how they vote-

    http://www.esrc.ac.uk/my-esrc/grants/RES-000-22-4108/outputs/read/89d53f63-25d4-458a-bf2e-225dbf5bab18

    - the result is that England is more left-wing than its voting would suggest, and Scotland is more right-wing than its voting would suggest. Places like East Renfrewshire or Perthshire aren’t hotbeds of socialism (or even social democracy) but have a lot of Labour and SNP voters respectively, perhaps in part because the Tories are seen as anti-Scottish even by most people on the right in Scotland.

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