TNS BMRB released a new poll on the Scottish independence referendum this morning. I expected several polls to appear in the wake of the publication of the white paper, letting us see if it had any effect on referendum voting intentions.

This alas is not one of them, as annoyingly it was carried out almost wholly before the white paper was published. For the record the figures show very little change from the previous TNS poll in October. The YES vote stands at 26%(+1), the NO vote at 42%(-1), 32% are undecided (for some reason TNS tend to show a much higher level of don’t knows compared to other Scottish referendum polls). Full tabs are here.


372 Responses to “New TNS-BMRB Scottish Referendum poll”

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  1. Coupler,
    Yes agreed.But this mole is very dangerous indeed.

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  2. @R & D

    It is just pure jealousy. Although Scotland did beat England in ’67 at Wembley which made Scotland the real world champions apparently, or so I have been told.

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  3. @COUPER2802

    I was a student at the time of 1978 World Cup (when Scotland qualified but England didn’t) and I certainly don’t recall the English getting behind ‘Ally’s army’. More like the opposite!

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  4. If we are talking about England and Scotland, have the Scots ever settled that bill for a set of goal posts, dated 1977?

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  5. @Rogerh

    I remember the English being quite supportive Of course our song contained the lines ‘England cannae dae it cos they didnae qualify’ which was rather unsympathetic.

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  6. Barney Crockett

    “At the anorak end of analysing the Shettleston by election, the SNP came second, a long way behind Labour, the Tories were third, UKIP fourth and Lib Dems fifth.!”

    I note that the PB website shows the result as being a 2% swing TO the SNP!

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  7. Tories on 29% again in Tomorrows ST YG poll ! ( ?)

    If Labour have another double digit lead, the governments upbeat announcements on growth, are definitely not being felt in most parts of the country.

    We will see tomorrow, when the poll comes out.

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  8. If the Conservatives are on 29% again, I will be most surprised.

    Is Mr Crosby getting paid by results?

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  9. @Shevii

    I’m not a regular visitor to Aggborough, the home of Kiddy Harriers, but they are my adopted second team and I do go and watch the occasional match when Villa are away. I’m not sure about the coin-throwing, but they had a group of fans behind the goal who kept up an incessant din all game, accompanied by a very annoying drummer. The repertoire of songs was a bit predictable too and because the opposition was Newport County, we were treated to regular renditions of songs about sheep and Welshmen.

    Excellent game though, and the standard of football was surprisingly high. So high in fact that I hope the Villa don’t draw Kiddy in the 3rd Round!

    You obviously follow a non-league team. Who might that be, as a matter of interest?

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  10. Cb11

    Dunno if you read what I wrote a few weeks back re Fergie “anointing” Moyes being an act of great vanity but I really feel he didn’t want a big name to follow him and needed to feel he was somehow linked to a succession.

    May turn out alright but Europe is so big now that one season out and they will be stuffed.

    So please that Van Persie may live to regret leaving Arsenal after they supported him through injuries season after season.

    The Arse seem to have lost that thing now of always having a player who half wanted to go: Viera, Henry, Fabregas, V Persie – and all of them the captain.

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  11. @RosieandDavie

    Yes, Fergie’s control-freakery even extended to insisting that he should determine who his successor was going to be, although Moyes was always a realistic candidate for the job, with or without the great man’s blessing. I always thought, such was Fergie’s longevity and success, that his leaving would be a pivotal moment in the shifting of the power balance in the English game, and I think Man Utd’s long period of pre-eminence is now coming to an end. That’s no bad thing and I think the likes of Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, United, Everton and Chelsea will all now have realistic chances of winning the Premiership over the coming years. This makes for a more interesting competition.

    As for Van Persie, he’ll bale out as soon as he thinks he’s no longer guaranteed silverware at Old Trafford. He’ll be off in the summer, probably abroad.

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  12. @ David Welch

    I work in a local independent bookshop in NE Scotland. We do not carry any books about English football, for the simple reason that they do not sell.

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  13. Moyes was an awful replacement, truly awful. Ferguson would always be a hard act to follow but why appoint a manager who has won nothing in his career! The way Everton are now playing, it looks like Moyes was holding them back!

    I hope he doesn’t get sacked though, United now look like Liverpool did under Graeme Souness back in 1992 they are shot and the players they have aren’t good enough. The problem they will now have is attracting new players as they are already looking like a spent force, 7 points off 4th place already and if they don’t qualify for CL well they’ll have real problems then.

    I suspect Ferguson saw this coming and got out while he could,a bit like Tony Blair! ????????

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  14. I’m going to a talk by Lord Stewart Wood, Ed Miliband’s personal adviser on strategy and international affairs, on Wednesday.

    Since you’re all politics nerds, does anyone have any questions for me to put to him?

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  15. @MrNameless

    What are Ed’s Plans for reducing the UK structural deficit ?

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  16. @MrNameless

    The same question that I have for any politician, be they MP, MSP, or councillor.

    “What can you do for the country that the other parties cannot?”

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  17. mr N

    Does he think the Gunners will win the Prem this season.

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  18. Mr Nameless,

    Where abouts is it being held? Following on from your question to Ms Bennett a few weeks back, I now know what you look like! (Be scared…)

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  19. @David Welch / Aberdeen Cynic

    If there are English football books selling in Aberdeen, it will probably be Man Utd / Fergie ones. Ferguson’s history with Aberdeen had many Aberdeen fans following Man Utd as their team in England.

    I have never seen evidence of English football being popular in Aberdeen. People will joke that they will support the other lot, but it’s only for 90 minutes, and they would probably rather see England score a few own goals. Far more enjoyable. ;)

    “The football writer in our Aberdeen paper is saying he`ll be combining his kilt with an England shirt when the World Cup comes next year, and urging others to do the same.”

    To put it in NE local terms. “He’s a feel”. I have no idea as to the ‘local paper’, but I’ll take a guess at the P&J, which seems to be more unionist than not.

    A quick Google of “press and journal Scottish independence” shows many pro-unionist stories and no pro-independence ones. Have the first four:

    “Press and Journal – Article – Domesday! Part of England after Scots …” (I really do hope ‘Domesday’ is a play on words…if that’s the quality of the journalism, at least I know where a chap with an O’ level in English can get a job.)

    “Press and Journal – Article – Most Scots oppose independence after …”

    “Windfarms ‘may cost Scottish independence’ – Press And Journal”

    “Press and Journal – Article – Scottish independence support dips”

    Maybe they do have a balanced mix of stories, and for some reason they aren’t popping up. Quite worrying if not though. It look more likely that Scotland’s future will be decided by a biased media, rather than by the facts.

    I still haven’t gotten off the fence, but am finding far too much negativity from the unionist side at present. They haven’t made a case for the union. I have heard some argue that there is no case to be made, rather, the presumption is on the nationalist side. Not so. If we apply the oft-used marriage analogy, there’s a requirement for the unionists to at least suggest why things can get better than they are at present under the union.

    Change is required. The problem is that the unionists seem to be a mix of the politicians and media that the people do not support any more. If the landscape of Westminster and traditional politics were to be changed overnight to something more positive and appealing, the SNP’s chances would disappear completely.

    As it is, it is (or it seems) more a case of the existing political and media trying to maintain their grasp on the reigns, levers, or whatever phrase you care to use.

    The Falkirk Question Time / St. Andrews day was a case in point. As ever, the SNP push Sturgeon in, while Labour push in Margaret Curran. Glasgow v Glasgow. The Lib Dems pushed in their ‘rottweiler’ from Shetland (which the unionists claim might want to break away from Scotland, but they haven’t made a case for that either), while Patrick Harvie represented the other independence party (Glasgow again). Annabel Goldie popped up with fer ‘Take the High Road’ accent, which wins so many votes in Scotland (oh, and she represent an area to the West of Glasgow). Eddi Reader…Glasgwegian. So basically 83% of the panel from Glasgow.

    It’s a farce. No one representing Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh or Inverness. No one representing Tayside, the Borders, the Highlands, Stirlingshire, Perthshire…

    As with the selection of the Scottish Manager, if he’s not from Glasgow, it will be an uphill battle from day one. Likewise, when Question Time comes to Scotland, it seems to be increasingly a Glasgow thing. Previous episode (non-Glaswegians / or non-Glaswegian politicians with asterisks):

    Edinburgh – 13th June – Ruth Davidson, Anas Sarwar, George Galloway, Angus Robertson*, Lesley Riddoch* , Nigel Farage* (50%)

    Stirling – 7th Feb – Michael Moore*, Humza Yousaf, Lord Falconer*, Mary Macleod*, Brian Souter* (20%)

    Glasgow – 18th Oct ’12 – Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson, Margaret Curran, Alan Cochrane*, Mark Serwotka* (60%)

    Not bad for wee town with 11% of the population. That’s my nightly whinge out of the way. Aberdeen for the title, and East Fife for the Cup! :))

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  20. Today’s YouGov/Sunday Times (think the 29 tweeted must have been a reference to Friday’s poll!

    Con 34
    Lab 39
    Lib Dem 10
    UKIP 11
    SNP/PC 3
    Green 3
    Others 0

    with a rare statistical appearance for Respect as one former
    Lib Dem voter sayx they’ll vote for them.

    Approval -24

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  21. Sorry, correction – Others 1

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  22. New thread, BTW.

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