There are two GB polls in the Sunday papers. Opinium’s fortnightly poll in the Observer has topline figures of CON 28%(nc), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 19%(+3). Meanwhile the weekly YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%.

Opinium normally produce higher levels of UKIP support than other companies, but even by their standards the UKIP score is the highest since July. For YouGov the UKIP score is the highest since June, and follows on from a 14% yesterday. As ever, once can never be completely sure about the reasons behind poll movements (nor certain they aren’t just blips) but it’s tempting to link these figures with the recent prominence of Eastern European immigration in the news. This is a useful reminder of how public opinion can be a lot more complicated than “popular policy => more support”. The YouGov poll finds that the policies David Cameron has suggested on EU immigration (putting residency requirements and time limiting benefits for EU migrants and, deporting EU migrants sleeping rough) are very popular – all received over 80% support. However the short-term impact in the polls does not appear to be more Conservative support, but to push the immigration issue up the agenda and, therefore, increase support for UKIP.

Then again, shutting up about it probably may not have been much better either – the media were shouting about Romanian and Bulgarian immigration anyway, and will likely do so even more as January approaches, and would also have spent their time demanding Cameron did something. It’s not really as if Cameron could had kept it off the agenda if he’d wanted to – not doing anything at all could have been even better for UKIP!

Following the publication of the white paper on Scottish Independence I’m expecting some new Scottish polls measuring if there has been any impact on referendum voting intention. In the event there only seems to be one in the Sunday papers – a Progressive Scottish Opinion poll in the Scottish Mail on Sunday. They have YES on 27%(nc), NO on 56%(-3), Don’t know on 17%(+3). Changes are from their previous poll in September. Progressive are not BPC members, so we have limited information on what they do, but suffice to say the poll does not show a massive change from prior to the white paper. I’m hoping there will be more Scottish polling in the next week or two on the back of the white paper, so we shall see if it paints a consistent picture.


524 Responses to “Sunday YouGov and Opinium polls”

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  1. “The certainty of some should come as no surprise. That certainty has been revealed in polling where the left of centre voters are always less certain than the right of centre voters and UKIP voters are even more certain than Con voters.

    That fact makes me wonder whether a test for oneself about how certain one is about various matters could prove where one will end up voting, even before one has considered the choices.” Howard

    I don’t know about voting, but the F-Scale (F standing for fascism) test, based on a questionnaire, was devised in 1947, and a good deal of effort was spent trying to relate authoritarianism to other variables of,
    I believe, personality and environment.

    I suppose these people, like my late grandfather, who say, “I know I am right” are simultaneously very annoying and (perhaps only in retrospect ) rather endearing.

  2. @RosieandDaisie

    “En el otro mano I think Burnham will be a great asset for Labour, and then the country, in 2015”

    Mano is feminine.

  3. Paul Croft

    Now you knew if you threw down a challenge like that, we would rush to take it up.

    Arthur Lowe. An extraordinarily outstanding comic performance of taking parts that took the michael out of the typical small Tory businessman (Mr Swindley, Captain Mainwaring) and yet was himself a lifelong Con member.

    Actually, re-reading your comment, I may have misinterpreted your point, – was it someone in particular you had in mind? If I think of what we would call the ‘old-fashioned’ comics, (think Jimmy Edwards) I would have guessed they were all Tories as of course Edwards was, unashamedly.

  4. @ALISTER1948

    “Someone mentioned the Autumn Statement, due on Thursday, tomorrow. I would be a little surprised if this moved opinion much or at all.”

    ———-

    Not immediately perhaps. But if they for example implement measures that do leave people better off down the line, that can help come election time.

  5. raf

    “Mano is feminine.”

    You’re thinking of womano.

    Howard

    Jim Davison was the appalling “comic” I had in mind.

    Yuk

    And I was not talking about actors with scripts.

  6. “And I was not talking about actors with scripts.”

    That rules out Monkhouse as well, then.

  7. @ALISTER1948

    “Someone mentioned the Autumn Statement, due on Thursday, tomorrow. I would be a little surprised if this moved opinion much or at all.”

    ———-

    Not immediately perhaps. But if they for example implement measures that do leave people better off down the line, that can help come election time.”
    @ Carfrew
    Well it’s getting rather late for the govt, but who knows…

  8. Paul Croft

    Ah yes of course. I was ‘away’ in the 80s and missed his oevre completely. By the time I returned, he was better known for dissipation than anything else IIRC.

    I think your comment had in mind chiefly satirical humour (guessing here) and it is thought that such humour is mainly left wing. There would be two reasons for this I suppose, the long periods that Con were in government from 1951 until 1997, followed by a dawning realisation that we now had the Blairs and Hoons and ….. ooh, getting painful memories now. I suppose it’s whoever is in government essentially. I do notice that the satirists / cartoonists are either not what they were, or Clegg and Cameron are just too boring to get much out of. If it were not for that Bullingdon photo, I think the pickings are meagre indeed. I’ve commented here before that why they don’t picture Clegg as the little Dutch boy holding the thumb in a dyke called Austerity, is a chance missed. I suppose he really is too faceless. Have you seen a good cartoon of him – I haven’t? Danny A is good as a ginger Beaker to Lord Fauntleroy, but again, otherwise a bit faceless. They good have done much more with Vince IMO, but I suspect the cartoonists want to leave the LDs alone for reasons I can’t fathom. Does Peter Brookes have a go? Mrs H and I miss Brookes terribly but he’s behind the Murdoch pay wall.

  9. PC (following upRogerH)

    I just wondered if you thought these people don’t all use scripts. They do you know. The spontaneity is achieved by having instant recall of jokes that fit a current comment. It’s still good stuff though and I do miss Frankie Boyle – if you are going to be cutting, slash away. I know he can be OTT but who sets the borders?.

  10. Howard

    yes, that’s it – inventive, ironic, unscripted feel with no “punchline” jokes.

    Interestingly there were no right-wing versions under Blair/Brown and goodness knows they deserved something.

    Again though it came from the left.

    Mind you, my favourite comic has always been cheeky ole Basil Brush….

    BOOM BOOM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  11. howard

    FB I can’t stand: shocking just to be shocking but very little to amuse in my view.

    I prefer Charlie Brown and Snoopy to him any day.

    I used to like Sally’s mantra:

    “Xmas is for getting while the getting’s good.”

  12. YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead at 6: CON 34%, LAB 40%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%

  13. R and D
    Well I’m not fond since Rebecca Adlington that was OTT and further OTT.

    You know the one about David Broome don’t you?

  14. Speculation in Tomorrows press that Osborne will announce that the state pension age will be increased to 70.

    With the average life expectancy of a Male still under 80, the question has to be asked whether this is a good idea. This will mean for most Men, that they will not enjoy too many healthy years of retirement. For those that have to stop working before 70, many will face having to go through the welfare system. There will also be many who will be forced out by employers, who will find it very difficult to obtain other work, so again have to use welfare.

    This will also not be very popular with voters. The government should not use the ‘we are all living longer’ excuse, as the life expectancy of Males has not changed much over say the last 20 years. The government should be honest that the pension age change is purely down to affordability of the system.

  15. This probably isn’t in the spirit of this site but can anybody tell me why both main UK parties seem intent on funneling ever more amounts of labour into the jobs market: get Mums back to work , import migrant labour, increase the retirement age.

    It seems to me that part of the problem (for those who trying to sell their labour in the ordinary economy) is that there’s too much of it about.

  16. howard

    “R and D
    Well I’m not fond since Rebecca Adlington that was OTT and further OTT.”

    No comprende

    “You know the one about David Broome don’t you?”

    No.

  17. R Huckle
    It’s too late if so. We boomers are already drawing.

  18. @R Huckle – New Scientist ran a very good story on this a while ago. They basically pointed out that politicians are assuming that live expectancy moves only in one direction, and have neglected to factor in the huge explosion in obesity that the under 40’s are now experiencing.

    In fact, they quoted numerous experts who are anticipating life expectancy to stabilise and fall as the unhealthy generations mature. If George really is establishing a formula for pension age, it would be quick funny if it means the pension age actually falls.

    More on renewables tariff announcements; Somewhat bizzarely, the Solar Trade Association have said that the some of the new tariffs announced today for large solar developments are actually above what they asked for. They have been set around 10% above what the STA requested as a viable level.

    This means (and I’m sure this is completely coincidental) that the solar subsidies remain higher by £1/MWh) than those offered to new nuclear. The STA asked for a level £8 cheaper than the nuclear offer.

    It’s pleasing to know that George is happy to make electricity bill payers cough up more than the solar industry needs, and embarrassment to the nuclear lobby would not have played any part in the decision, I’m sure.

  19. R and D
    Rebecca Adlington was a ‘joke’ about her appearance that Boyle had obviously saved up. To vomit about (it involves a spoon).

    The (true story) joke is that the renowned Olympic horse jumping champion David Broome (well, he was then) was competing at Wembley Empire Stadium. He strolls into the competitors area but has forgotten his pass. The doorman refuses him entry.

    ‘Don’t you know who I am’ he exclaims, ‘I’m David Broome’.

    I don’t care if you are Basil Brush’ replies the doorman, ‘No pass, no entry’.

    Boom, boom!

  20. Would have been funnier if he’d forgotten his horse.

    But I’m glad Basil was deemed more important.

  21. @peter crawford

    I’d go with that analysis. The gay marriage policy lost more than it gained for the Conservative VI. It was the right decision, and still they lost votes. Interesting, had they taken the ‘nasty party’ route, they would have had more VI.

    @NickP

    Peter is wrong; AW is wrong; I am wrong. You’re not a football referee by any chance? :))

  22. @Howard

    If we’re talking satire along the lines of Spitting Image, I can easily see several politicians.

    Gove – Squeaky, indignant complainer, Francis Pym-esc perhaps.

    Miliband – A Nick Park creation, but with a fraction of the accent, and a nasal voice (maybe even a drip on the nose).

    Menzies Campbell – Cobwebs and dust etc.

    Salmond – Jowls and chins; lots of.

    There’s one of each. Note how I am politically balanced in my examples. :))

  23. Statgeek – I wouldn’t go with that analysis, because it’s wrong. The Increase in UKIP support this time last year almost certainly wasn’t gay marriage – the timings don’t line up with any gay marriage announcement (the government did make a gay marriage announcement in December… but about a week after the increase in UKIP poll ratings), but do line up exactly with the Rotherham adoption scandal and Rotherham by-election.

    Apart from the omnishambles budget, other spikes in UKIP support all represent by-elections or other election success.

  24. Howard

    All the best to you Howard. Thanks for your thoughts, feeling well at the moment.

    Regards

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