Tonight’s polls

I’m not in tonight to write up any new polling, but I’m expecting the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the usual weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. Given the publication of the white paper in the week it’s possible we may see some fresh Scottish polling too, though I don’t actually know of any yet – we shall see.


78 Responses to “Tonight’s polls”

1 2
  1. @richard and floatingvoter

    It is indeed an interesting thought that if UKIP priorities are brought into the headlines (even by Cons in trying to negate them), votes go to UKIP. This is conjecture for the present, but worth bearing and mind, and a potential dilemma for Cons.

  2. A Russian colleague described the general position of Ukraine as this “In the summer they look to the west, in the winter they look to the east…” As this was almost the nicest thing I heard a Russian say about Ukraine I suspect there is something in it.

  3. Looks like there is an indy poll, printed in the mail, done by progressive Scottish or whatever they call themselves. Conducted post White Paper, apparently no measurable shift. Indy standing at 27 percent http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2516317/Poll-reveals-just-QUARTER-Scots-want-leave-UK-following-launch-referendum-campaign.html

  4. With both Lab and Con shrinking, is this what is meant by a “race to the bottom”?

  5. AW – very odd yougov poll today. Half of those polled voted Lib Dem in 2010, but they haven’t been weighted down at all on the 2010 block. How does that work? I always assumed 2010 was weighted towards actual 2010 result. @statgeek what do you think?
    As per UKIP- I always thought European immigration would undermine all the Tory anti-immigration rhetoric and prove toxic for them. Cutting student numbers to reduce figures doesn’t quite address worker concerns.

  6. Anthony,

    I’ve just been looking at today’s YouGov data tables and something seems wrong. The UKIP and Lib Dem weighted samples (and unweighted samples) are much bigger than usual but this is not reflected in the published percentages. In fact the UKIP sample is almost the same as the Tories’ yet their published percentage is half of theirs. Similarly the Lib Dems’ sample is about a third bigger than usual, yet the published 10% is about average. What has happened to produce these results?

  7. Colin/Chatterclass – the UKIP weighted and unweighted numbers are missing from the table, everything else is shifted along one space left (so the 519/521 are the weighted/unweighted for 2010 Conservatives, until at the end the figures for Scotland are there twice)

    The splits themselves are correct, it’s just the numbers at the top that are wrong – copy and paste error.

  8. @Thesheep – that reminds me of a joke my Polish friend tells about the Polish peasant whose house was sitting exactly on the proposed border between Poland and the USSR when they were sorting things out at the end of the war. They asked him which country he preferred to live in so they could divert the line, and after a few moments pondering, he replied ‘Poland – I can’t stand those Russian winters’.

  9. Thanks Anthony. Any chance of getting the correct numbers?

    Thanks!

  10. Not till Monday morning (though like I said, topline figures and all the cross-breaks are correct)

  11. Good morning all.

    The YouGov and Opinium polls have shifted the betting markets slightly.

    Ladbrokes
    10-15% (UK share) at GE in to 7/2 (from 4/1)
    0-5% out to 5/2 (from 9/4)
    5-10% unchanged at 6/4

    The longer term shift is also revealing: UKIP to get 0-5% was evens at the start of 2013.

  12. PS. Those %s above are all UKIP share of GE vote across UK in GE 2015.

  13. @Andy James – that poll really does look quite ominous for the SNP. I’m particularly struck by the numbers on economic optimism, with 49% believing they would be worse off after a yes vote. This would appear to be pretty fundamental to the Yes campaign.

    I did wonder whether the lack of clarity over some of the big constitutional issues, allied to a mismatch between SNP optimism on what they could deliver compared to the public view of what is more likely could present a problem for the general acceptance of the white paper. Time will tell, but I do think the SNP have left themselves somewhat exposed.

  14. Advent is upon us and revelling will make polls calculations into shortbread and mince pies until the hang over of the near year…ho!ho!ho!

  15. John
    Yes the start of Thorntons Daily Chocolate Month is always celebrated in our home!

  16. Alec

    I think the intervention of the Spanish PM is what blew away any chance the White Paper had of catching on.

    The nats have also committed a simple tactical error in releasing the white paper so long before the actual vote-by the time September 2014 comes along, only political anoraks will be talking about its substantive content (not that there was much)-most people will only remember what the headlines made of it, which is that it wasn’t very details, said nothing about currency and was pulled apart by European leaders.

    Its also ominous for the SNP, although fairly well known, that one of the Unionist heartlands, is also an SNP heartland. If independence is rejected (and for that matter, even if it is accepted), the SNP loses overnight, its primary selling point. What that means for its post referendum electoral prospects is anyones guess.

    Anecdotally, its worth discussing quite how bored people are getting within Scotland itself, of the constant referendum talk-on the BBC Scotland website, with the exception of the day the white paper was released where the coverage was so total it was impossible to avoid, the most read BBC Scotland articles were almost entirely un-referendum related.

  17. THESHEEP
    ‘A Russian colleague described the general position of Ukraine as this “In the summer they look to the west, in the winter they look to the east…” ‘
    Very poetikski, but absolut bolliockski I should think. Their vote splits, I believe,both in domestic elections and in relation to joining the EU, along the ethnic Russian and ethnic Georgian populaton divide.

  18. I just plugged in today’s Yougov and I need to look at it some more,

    One thing does stand out. I track the Con + Lab share of the vote, and today it stands at 68 %. It has not been this low since the 17th July.

  19. @Andy James

    Many Nats have less than total admiration for the BBC and their perception of how it has aligned itself with regard the unionist / nationalist debate. The funding to allocation ratio of the Scottish license payers is one aspect of this. The inclination of the BBC to prevent comments on articles that many North of the border would like to have is another. If you want to see conspiracy after conspiracy, try – https://www.facebook.com/bbcscot . I particularly like the one about the weather maps (there’s one lower down than the first one you come to).

    @Chatterclass

    It has been answered, so no need, but it’s a very different looking cross-break, and out-with typical MoE norms.

    Lab 30
    SNP 30
    Con 19
    UKIP 8
    Lib 6
    Green 6

    EC’s seat allocation:

    Lab 36 (-5)
    SNP 16 (+10) Five each from Lab and Lib
    Lib 4 (-7)
    Con 3 (+2) Both from Lib

  20. Sorry, I went to bed after I posted about Tim Young’s selection last night so I haven’t answered any of the questions or points raised about Clacton and Tim Young.

    I would not describe Clacton as completely unwinnable for Labour, but I think it would need a shift of 1997 proportions to achieve a win.

    There is no doubt that when Ivan Henderson won the seat in 1997 and 2001 he was helped by Harwich being included in the constituency but there was also a large rural chunk that was lost when the boundaries were redrawn. It is also true to say that in the 1995 District Council elections, Labour took control of Tendring for the first and only time in its history with the majority of seats in the now Clacton constituency returning Labour Councillors.

    Politics in Clacton is complicated by the fact of having two fairly strong local independent parties. The first is Tendring First, a break-away Conservative Group who broke away essential because they did not want Carswell at any price, although their fortunes have faded a bit since the early days, they still have seven District councillors and are very active locally.

    The second is the Holland Residents’ Association, who control Holland-on-Sea and always take the three Holland seats. They are virulently anti-Tory and in this year’s County elections threw their weight behind the Tendring First candidate in Clacton East, helping him defeat the Tory leader of the District Council. In an area that should be comfortably Conservative, they can put a big dent into the Tory vote.

    The unknown factor will be UKIP. They didn’t stand in the 2010 election because Carswell’s views are similar to their own, but they may well stand this time as the leaders of both Tendring First and Holland Residents have recently joined and they will certainly be lobbying for UKIP to stand next time round. UKIP did well in this year’s County elections in this area, so their vote could turn Clacton into a three way split with Labour, who will pick up the majority of the admittedly small but nevertheless significant, LibDem vote.

    So, although it is an uphill struggle, I wouldn’t say Labour’s position is as completely hopeless as it is in some seats.

    Someone mentioned that Carswell has increased the Conservative Party membership. There is an interesting story to that which I won’t go into here, but don’t believe all you read!

    Oh, and Tim has lived all his life in the Clacton and Colchester area, so I don’t think he was ever in the Richmond Labour Party.

  21. @Andy James

    I got sidetracked by the link and the poll data. Ergo, the BBC Scotland site is likely to be less visited by nationalists than by unionists for their preferred daily dose of nationalist news (the facts are immaterial – what some readers believe will dictate their reading habits). Having said that, many might tune in to spot the latest ‘anti-SNP story’.

    Brian Taylor’s blog (‘Blether with Brian’) did have comments originally, but the BBC didn’t have the inclination (funding is usually the excuse) to moderate the comments once the nationalists got involved. It’s more than likely that some were OTT, but that’s the price of involving the readers in modern media. There’s commentary permitted with some of Nick Robinson’s articles, but they tend to be non-Scottish political, as far as I have seen).

  22. @STATGEEK

    I don’t think the BBC comments policy is any different north or south…

    many articles the BBC puts out, do not allow comments…

    I am not saying it is right or wrong, just not an anti SNP thing.

    it happens to the rest of us as well…

  23. Statgeek, I clicked on the Blether blogs a couple of times and the comments section was akin to an infant school playground, overflowing with insults and arguments. At any time, half the comments had been mod-ed.

    I’m not surprised to hear they don’t allow comments on there anymore.

  24. @Statgeek – I’ve looked at the facebook link, and I link it is, by and large, completely biased and mostly garbage.

    The latest fuss over the BBC accusing the SNP of lifting things from the internet re EU negotiations is absolutely typical. The letter was meant to be some kind of SNP bombshell that proves the Scots could negotiate a new membership package while still in the union, but in the process of leaving.

    To my knowledge, no one has claimed this wouldn’t be possible. The point being consistently made was that the negotiations themselves would take as the starting point that Scotland is a new accession country.

    What the SNP didn’t seem to realise was that the letter they were trumpeting conforms what their opponents have said all along – that there is no right to inherit UK conditions of entry and Scottish entry will be subject to a right of veto.

    For any major news organisation, the big news wasn’t a letter conforming what everyone already knew, but the Spanish PM making statements that showed he was not going to rubber stamp Scottish membership.

    That isn’t bias – it’s completely natural news gathering.

  25. In terms of BBC bias Scotland gets much more coverage than Barnard Castle, which seems ridiculous to me.

  26. catmanjeff

    “I just plugged in today’s Yougov and I need to look at it some more,”

    Oh dear… that is just sad.

  27. Everyone thinks the BBC news coverage is biased against their own POV but fortunately news is only a small part of what we get from the BBC in return the licence fee.

  28. …in return for the licence fee.

1 2