The weekly YouGov results for the Sunday Times are now up online here. Topline voting intention figures are CON 33%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%.

The survey also included some questions on banking regulation in general, and a couple touching on the ongoing story around the Co-Op bank. Most opinion towards the banks and their regulation remains very negative and very pessimistic. Only 15% think bank regulation is effective, only 18% are confident that enough has been done to prevent a repeat of the banking crash. There is slightly more faith in the Bank of England’s ability to regulate the sector in the future – 33% of people say they trust the BoE a lot or a fair amount to regulate the banks. Bankers themselves continue to have a very poor public image – by 49% to 16% people think they are bad at their jobs, and by 56% to 13% people think they are fundamentally bad people.

Turning to the questions around the Co-op bank, 77% of people think that it should really be necessary for someone to have banking experience to be appointed Chairman of a bank, but most people put the blame for the appointment of Paul Flowers on the Co-op board itself rather than a regulatory failure or political machinations. 67% think George Osborne is correct to order an inquiry into how Flowers was appointed.

Also in today’s Sunday Times is a new Scottish poll by Panelbase. Voting intention in the Independence referendum now stands at YES 38%, NO 47% – wholly in line with Panelbase’s previous polling over the last year, which has been consistently showing a NO lead of around 8 to 10 points since summer 2012. I’ve updated the page showing polls on the Scottish referendum so far here.


153 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 40, LD 9, UKIP 11”

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  1. First

  2. “Also in today’s Sunday Times is a new Scottish poll by Panelbase. Voting intention in the Independence reference now stands at YES 38%, NO 47%”
    ____________

    Not that big a gap and nice to see AW flying the flag for a Yes vote/ :-)

  3. Well I would had been first if my comment didn’t go into mod??

  4. “Turning to the questions around the Co-op bank, 77% of people think that it should really be necessary for someone to have banking experience to be appointed Chairman of a bank, but most people put the blame for the appointment of Paul Flowers on the Co-op board itself rather than a regulatory failure or political machinations. 67% think George Osborne is correct to order an inquiry into how Flowers was appointed”
    ___________

    Absolutely correct and this man had no banking experience at all.

    I watched the Marr show today and although I’m not a huge fan of Michael Gove I thought he hit the right note when he said Labour are always keen to hold inquiry’s unless it’s on the Labour party itself.

    Public, parliamentary, financial, police and even a Methodist church inquiry are needed to sort this individual out and Ed can’t hide on this one.

  5. AW

    On the referendum poll is there any data on don’t knows?

  6. Ignore my last question I’ve managed to open the link.

  7. Another poll showing Labour at 40%. Looks like it’s vote has steadied slightly up from the beginning of the year.

    With regards Flowers, in a predictable tit for tat, a financial scandal about Tim Yeo is about to surface.

    Oh the joys of politics.

  8. First poll conducted entirely after the Flowers and Co-op furore was unleashed and no evidence of any damage to Labour so far, either in the overall VI ratings or in the sub-question data.

    The Tories no doubt will keep banging away on it, and Schapps was at it again this morning in a bit of a car crash interview with Neil, but I think it’s another one, like Leveson and phone hacking, where they’re hamstrung by the double-edged nature of the issue for them. It’s not a win-win, in modern parlance, because the disinfectant of transparency on the subjects of party donations and banking has the capability of hurting the Tories as much as Labour. Some may argue more so, in fact.

    I think the other problem for the Tories, rather like the Mail’s attack on his father, is that it allows Miliband to play the wounded party, a role he plays quite skilfully. You may call it naked politicking, but it’s enabling him to play the Nasty Party card again, accusing the Tories of smears and unpleasant, personalised attacks. Yvette Cooper was developing this theme on Marr this morning and, as Theresa May once cryptically observed, the Nasty Party label is one that many voters still see hanging around the Tories necks. I’m not going to comment on whether that label is justified or not, but it would be a foolish observer to think it doesn’t grievously damage the Conservatives image and voter-friendliness.

  9. @AW

    Any datasheet that latest Panelbase poll? I’ve learned that the sample was 1006 in size from another source, but no links.

  10. @CB11

    “I’m not going to comment on whether that label is justified or not, but it would be a foolish observer to think it doesn’t grievously damage the Conservatives image and voter-friendliness.”

    Nor will I comment on whether Labour deserve the ‘grossly irresponsible with the economy’ label or ‘has no worthwhile policies’ label.

    Should we consider the Lib Dem’s ‘betrayed the Labour voters’ label?

    Perhaps the ‘UKIP is as racist as the BNP’ label?

    I love how you throw in your tuppenceworth and dance around it to avoid the mod. :))

  11. Statgeek

    Panelbase tables probably won’t be up till some time tomorrow morning – that’s usually the way with their ST ones. When they do appear they should be here:

    http://www.panelbase.com/news/

  12. Crossbat – The problem for the Conservative Party with regards Flowers is that only real political anoraks are following the story. If you asked most people on the street what they think of the Flowers scandal they would most probably reply it is a disgrace that they are £20 a bunch.

    Also when most people think of dodgy bankers, there is only one party they think of.

    A bit like the Ed is Crap and Falkirk lines of attack it is going to take the Conservative Party months to realise that they are not even on the voters radar. I do wonder what the hell the Conservative Party are paying all these hundreds of thousands of pounds to all these different election strategists when not only do they keep missing the goal, they are struggling to keep the ball on the pitch.

    Or put it another way, since Crosby and Messina have been employed Labours lead has increased slightly.

  13. ”Ed is crap” seemed to be working a bit, RR, but only because Ed was being strategically silent. Falkirk never had a chance of working. Just a little faraway detail in most people’s minds. And Flowers? A man in a car buying coke, or whatever he bought? This man Crosby must have been adviser to the Aussie cricket team last summer – and look how they’re doing now he’s gone.

    Friedland was arguing in the Guardian yesterday that a muddy smear, repeated over and over, gradually sticks to the boot of the guy being smeared. But people do always have that moment when they ask: ”What, Flowers and Balls, Miliband, whoever… what happened, what did they do?” And for a smear to get some real momentum, I guess, someone has to have an answer at that point.

  14. STATGEEK

    CB11
    “I love how you throw in your tuppenceworth and dance around it to avoid the mod”
    _____

    Yes it’s a favourite tactic of [some people] on this site. Some get rather personal then dance around it and try and disguise it as a light-hearted joke.

    No names mentioned.

  15. @Allan Christie

    “I watched the Marr show today and although I’m not a huge fan of Michael Gove I thought he hit the right note when he said Labour are always keen to hold inquiry’s unless it’s on the Labour party itself.”

    I think that’s true of all parties to be honest. The speed with which Tories enacted an enquiry into this (over there dragging heels with everything else) rather suggest that they too are happy to hold enquiries when they know it won’t touch them.

  16. RED RAG

    “I do wonder what the hell the Conservative Party are paying all these hundreds of thousands of pounds to all these different election strategists when not only do they keep missing the goal, they are struggling to keep the ball on the pitch”
    ___________

    That might of stacked up if this was only a Tory phenomenon but as we all know all parties are guilty of milking situations.

  17. Anarchists Unite

    “I think that’s true of all parties to be honest. The speed with which Tories enacted an enquiry into this (over there dragging heels with everything else) rather suggest that they too are happy to hold enquiries when they know it won’t touch them”
    ___________

    Absolutely agreed with you.

  18. One question in todays poll was:

    “Do you think Reverend Flowers should be
    prosecuted over his alleged use of drugs?”

    What on earth does this have to do with polling ? He hasn’t even been charged with anything yet ! Anyone in doubt about whether he would be prosecuted if there is sufficient evidence, given the media & political furore about Flowers needs to give their head a shake.

    Let’s not forget the media stings recently though – Mark Pritchard & the Telegraph sting springs to mind.

    “Do you think the Co-op should continue to fund
    and work with the Labour party, or should they
    break their links?”

    Well, whadya know – Con supporters say break the link, Labour voters say keep it.
    Shocked I am…..shocked…..

  19. Anarchists Unite
    “rather suggest that they too are happy to hold enquiries when they know it won’t touch them.”

    I wouldn’t be too sure if I were them – they have been in power for 42 months whereas Flowers was appointed Chairman during the last months of the previous govt.

    Plenty of questions about the govt lack of oversight can’t be laid at Labour’s door.

    Mark Hoban for instance, might be asked why he met with Flowers 30 times in his efforts to get the Co-op bank to buy the 600+ Lloyds branches.

    Negative electioneering is horrible imo & if this is an example of the kind of gutter politics we have to look forward to until 2015, then the GE can’t come soon enough.

  20. I wonder if the REV Co-op would had made it into Iain Dales little red book? Would had been a bumper edition.

  21. Good to see Kerry and Obama grasping the nettle.

    Quite clearly the first foreign policy objective of Romney in 2013, or whoever gets the GOP nomination in 2017, would be to start a big war in that region.

  22. Agreed the whole Co-op/Flowers furore is a unedifying mess that makes everyone look bad. Both main parties are probably lucky the public don’t care, or they’d both be taking a hit from it. (And given how entangled the Tories and the Government are in the Co-op’s failure, I think it’s a sign of either nervousness or carelessness that the Tories are trying to weaponise it at all- they’d better served to set up some inquiries, shake their heads sadly over the tragedy of it all and then keep a safe distance until/unless the inquiries returned with something incriminating for Labour.)

    But I have to say, the pious moralising about smear campaigns is hard to take from an Opposition Leader who was calling the Prime Minister a “loser” at That Which Must Not Be Named not five days ago. It’s going to be a filthy, negative, personal campaign in 2015, and Labour are going to be just as filthy and negative and personal because negative campaigning works and the tone of politics can’t be set from opposition. And given that’s the plan, I’d think they’d better stop whinging about smears.

  23. @Spearmint

    A time for none of the above??

  24. May we all agree on UKPR that an Inquiry or inquiry is not the same as an enquiry, the latter being to find out when the next train leaves, for example.

    Also may we agree that ‘might of’ or ‘could of’ (etc) are not actually verbs in our language.

    Paul Croft, grammar and spelling monitor, where are you today?

  25. @Allan Christie/Statgeek

    “CB11
    “I love how you throw in your tuppenceworth and dance around it to avoid the mod””

    I know, it’s good, isn’t it, and I’m glad you both admire it as a rhetorical technique. It’s a bit like saying, “You may well say that, but I couldn’t possibly comment.”

    Works every time! lol

    [One would hope you weren’t using it to deliberately make posts that are not in the spirit of non-partisanship, nor that you would complain were further comments along such line from you moderated… AW]

  26. @ Catmanjeff,

    *checks to see if electoral reform has passed while she wasn’t looking*

    *discovers Westminster elections are still FPTP*

    No.

  27. @Spearmint

    So it’s nose plugs all round for 2015 (again).

  28. howard

    “Paul Croft, grammar and spelling monitor, where are you today?”

    Proud of Scotland’s education system is where I am.

  29. @ Anarchists Unite
    “The speed with which Tories enacted an enquiry into this (over there dragging heels with everything else) rather suggest that they too are happy to hold enquiries when they know it won’t touch them.”

    I think Osborn’s encouragement re the purchase of Lloyds Bank assets will cause them some embarrassment. See the cartoon in the Independent today.

  30. HOWARD
    42% of LD 2010 voters intend to vote for Labour. I’ll revise my estimate. I do think these are SD centre groundites, and that the centrre ground has changed, rather than to be described as switchers; hence the stability of the Labour VI.

  31. The Panelbase poll-

    38% Yes

    47% No

    20% Don’t know

    N/A Wouldn’t vote.

    That adds up to 105%, and 5% seems a lot for a rounding error.

  32. @JOHN PILGRIM

    They’d probably say that it’s the LibDem Party which has shifted while they’ve remained in much the same place.

  33. According to the YouGov survey 77% people think the CEO’s of banks should have substantial financial experience.

    The Conservatives have made a big play out of the lack of experience of the Crystal Methodist.

    At the time of the Banker Greed Driven Financial Crisis in 2008 none of the CEO’s of the biggest 4 UK banks came from a banking background.

    Currently the CEO’s come from a range of backgrounds including retail management.

    The Only One who is qualified in banking related subjects and comes from an exclusively banking background is António Horta Osório the Portuguese head of Lloyds Banking Group

  34. @ RogerH (5.13)

    As one of those who left the LDs, I couldn’t agree more. Having said that I am still a “don’t know” although I can say my vote will not go to Con or UKIP.

  35. @ Anthony

    When I click to your Scottish referendum summary, I too am seeing 38 No, 47 Yes, 20 DK. Is it just a typo? Should the 20 actually be DK 15?

  36. However, Steve, those with substantial financial experience wrecked the world economy a few years back and had no clue what to do about it. Seems to me it makes no difference whether you have financial experience or not. Attitude is what counts and unregulated finance encourages those with a (let’s call it) shaky attitude.

  37. Amber – yep, typo. Sorry

  38. John Pilgrim
    I was a bit puzzled (I’m actually diverted as I am watching Sebastian Vettel (or Seb as he is incongruously termed by the pommies and diggers on his team) looking in his unshaven state more like one of his forebear compatriots who did those long stints on Das Boot). By the way the shortening of his first name will be Bastian or Bas in the native vernacular.

    Anyway I think you are presumably referring to those LD /Con marginals that I am so sanguine about. Roger Mexico put up some good stuff as did AW on incumbency (that’s incumbency with an e believe it or not) but I see the ICM typical treatment of returnees as unlikely at present.

  39. Colin Davis
    Your points are self-evidently correct and I am amazed anyone should think otherwise. ‘Trust me, i am a qualified banker’ would not have a heavy influence on me.

    ‘Your bank savings accounts are protected by the government’ from Alistair Darling wa a lot more reassuring from where I was sitting in 2008. Ditto with the Gordon Brown – organised worldwide bail outs.

  40. It seems to be the general consensus that bankers should know something about banking,but the Chancellor of the exchequer,this one and previous ones,
    Who take economic decisions that effect us all,have very little economic experience.Strange.

  41. The Panelbase poll is showing exactly the same results as it did a year ago, a 9 point lead for the No camp. When’s the surge coming that will sweep us out of this oppressive Union? Oh of course it will all be revealed in this 670 page tome of ‘mights and coulds’ to be published on Tuesday. Meantime the subset of Westminster voting intentions for Scotland in the ST puts Labour on 48%, with the SNP on 22%, with the Tories nudging them at 18%.

  42. ” the SNP on 22%, with the Tories nudging them at 18%.”

    Not a nice thought. They should maintain a discreet distance.

  43. @ Julian,

    Obligatory “Don’t draw inferences from a single crossbreak* klaxon.

    Also worth noting that Labour are consistently higher and the SNP consistently lower in YouGov’s Scottish crossbreaks than they are in other pollsters’ Westminster polling. The reason for this is something of a mystery, and we won’t know who is right until 2015, but I wouldn’t start celebrating the electoral collapse of the SNP just yet.

  44. @ John Pilgrim

    Interesting what you say about people staying where they are and parties shifting. On the last thread it was commented upon that I had moved from being an active Young Conservative at 17, through Liberal to Left of Labour supporter now in 40 years, and that drifting to the Left with age was unusual.

    Oddly enough, in terms of policies, I still agree with the Conservative Government policy of 1972 – namely, maintenance of the mixed economy with a prices and incomes policy and investment to help maintain full employment. That I find myself now to the Left of Ed Miliband is because the political parties have all shifted over to the Right during the past 40 years – I haven’t budged at all!!!!

  45. John Pilgrim

    42% of LD 2010 voters intend to vote for Labour. I’ll revise my estimate. I do think these are SD centre groundites, and that the centrre ground has changed, rather than to be described as switchers; hence the stability of the Labour VI.

    (All together now children) Oh no it’s not!

    You’re forgetting that the 42% is only of those ex-Lib Dems who gave a voting preference. Once you take that into account the actual percentage in today’s ST poll is only 31%. And that is probably on the high side, the previous four YouGovs give figures of 30%, 20% (probably an outlier), 29%, 28%.

  46. @ROGER MEXICO

    “The Charles
    My comment actually contained a long quote from Mr Wells himself! Actually that might be the problem as his posts aren’t subject to automod. Of course the reality is that the longer a comment is, the more likely it is that a random concatenation of letters will tickle automod’s fancy and send it to Purgatory. Anthony’s usually quicker to sort them out, but I suppose he’s got something better to do.”

    ——–

    Don’t worry Rog, it’s just that your post contained the extraordinarily sinful word “outly-ing”…

  47. @Tony Dean

    I wholeheartedly agree with that analysis, which is a bit frustrating for those of us who were mainstream Labour party socialists in the 70’s. The Greens are now the nearest to credible party with nearest to my views and I was even tempted to vote LD last time when they pretended to be more left than Labour (thank God I resisted).
    I have been trying to convince a friend who emigrated many years ago and I have now cut and pasted your post for him ( I did give you the credit!)

  48. @COLIN DAVIES

    But people do always have that moment when they ask: ”What, Flowers and Balls, Miliband, whoever… what happened, what did they do?” And for a smear to get some real momentum, I guess, someone has to have an answer at that point.

    ————————

    This sounds like my reaction.I honestly haven’t got a clue what this story is about and what the scandal is supposed to be. I don’t live in the UK so perhaps I’m not being exposed to the right news sources but I’d speculate that I’m more interested in UK politics than 99% of the population.

    If I don’t even know what the charges are meant to be I can’t see this story being of any interest to the rest of the population and, therefore, unlikely to affect VI.

    Same with Falkirk “Scotland, Milliband, Unions, MP selection….what happened????”

    These might be big political scandals but they aren’t being ‘sold’ effectively by whoever is advising the Tory party.

  49. Oh dear. It’s obviously time for me to give my “Why Scottish cross-breaks should be ignored in all circumstances” talk again:

    PART I

    The first reason and the most obvious is that individual YouGov polls have a small Scottish sub-sample, so the Party VI percentages have a very high Margin of Error in any particular day. In an average YouGov sample of 1700 there will only be about 150 people from Scotland.

    Take off your ‘non-voters’ and you have an effect sample of around 115 and an MoE on your VI figures of +/-9. A Party VI of 20% might really be anywhere between 11% and 29% (and might well be the next day). Given that people tend to take more notice of the days when the result suits their political preferences (doctors call this Sun Tweet Syndrome) someone’s perception may be totally wrong as to the direction a Party’s VI is changing (or not).

    You might think that you can get round this by combining the Scottish samples from a lot of polls, but apart from the problem that there might then be a change in opinion within the longer period you are sampling, you come across the problem of weighting. YouGov do not weight Scottish samples separately, but instead weight the whole of the sample against targets for the whole of Britain. So a particular Scottish sub-sample or even an accumulation of them might have too many women, not enough over 60s and so on (balanced out elsewhere by other regions).

  50. PART II

    This is a real problem when there is a structural difference between Scotland and the rest of Britain – for example in newspaper readership. The Scottish portion of the sample will be weighted as if it was part of Britain as a whole. No matter how big your sample from however many days, the distortion will still be there.

    Most significantly this applies to Party-id. YouGov will always weight to a Britain-wide target of about 28% for the Conservatives (37% of all those giving an id). But in Scotland only 16.7% voted Tory in 2010 so would expect the proportion of Scots having Conservative as their id to be about half the percentage in Britain generally. So when YouGov send out requests to participate in a survey they probably ask more Scottish Tories than they should to participate. Hence the way that the Conservatives often score well over 20% in YouGov cross-breaks.

    There is also an additional problem with YouGov which reduces the SNP figure in the Scottish cross-break. This is because YouGov (uniquely as far as I know) offers all its voters a chance to choose the nationalist Parties. Both the SNP and PC are on the first screen offered (and you then pick Other is you want to choose UKIP, Green etc). Most other pollsters ask which country you are in before offering you the appropriate menu.

    As a result you often see SNP/PC voters in regions where they never put up candidates. There are on 1% in Rest of South today for example. Now this wouldn’t matter if this was caused by nostalgic expats or fat fingers, but if it is due to YouGov allocating SNP voters to the wrong region (because their records are wrong or because they are on the register in Scotland instead of/as well as where they currently live) then those votes are ‘lost’ to the SNP in the poll, even though they would end up in the ballot box. That 1% might be equivalent to 4-5 extra points in Scotland. In addition voters who YouGov assumes are Scottish voters (but aren’t) won’t choose the SNP and so boost the fortunes of the other Parties in Scotland.

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