This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%. The regular tracker on today’s poll was best party on issues, which showed the parties’ normal strengths and weaknesses – Labour lead the Conservatives on the NHS (by 12 points), education (by 4 points) and unemployment (by 4 points), the Conservatives were ahead on immigration (by 11 points), law and order (by 10 points) and the economy in general (by 5 points). The two parties were virtually neck-and-neck on Europe (Conservatives 19%, Labour 20%) – and yes, that is typical. I sometimes see the assumption out there that Europe is a strong issue for the Conservatives or a weakness for Labour, it is really not the case.

Meanwhile the twice weekly poll for Populus, out yesterday, had topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%. Full tabs are here.


347 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus polls”

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  1. Anthony

    In case you missed them, some posts were made where we agreed to exchange email addresses in order to share information regarding Atos & disability.

    Could you please share my email address with both Ozwald & Ewen Lightfoot ?

    Many thanks.

  2. Tories only ahead by 5 points on the economy? How far do they have to be ahead for it to be a real electoral asset?

  3. I see our Lord and Master has been quoted in the Express:

    “Analysing what might be the effect of the funding from Mr Sykes, YouGov’s associate director Anthony Wells said the cash would allow Ukip to buy in top strategists.

    He said the party had tried to secure the services of Lynton Crosby – now employed by the Conservative Party – but were previously unable to afford him.

    Mr Wells said: “Money isn’t magic, but it does give a bit of an advantage.

    “I would be surprised if Ukip doesn’t come top in the European elections.””

  4. “Mr Wells said: “Money isn’t magic”

    Blimey! He sounds nearly as wise as owr dad!!

  5. They could buy Howard, I don’t think he’d be that expensive…

  6. What’s the price-per-VI-point gained running at for Lynton at the moment? Just looking for a rough metric to gauge value re strategists…

  7. MrNameless – always weird what things journalists decide to pick up from long conversations!

    In case people are interested, it’s not some fascinating insider knowledge, it’s something Jim Pickard at the FT first reported earlier this year:

    http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2013/05/when-ukip-tried-to-hire-lynton-crosby/

  8. I’m more interested in why you think UKIP will win in 2014!

  9. Probably because they’ll be the only party to get out their vote.

  10. Jeremy Hunt has said – “Cruelty became normal in our NHS and no one noticed.”

    I haven’t seen the full transcript, so can’t put this into context, although it appears he is using Mid Staffs as a case study and extrapolating from this.

    [Snip] in terms of polling VI I suspect possibly quite difficult territory for him. Labour [are perceived as having an] undoubtedly good record on the NHS, with few cases of extreme failure (no more than in the private sector, of which there are a few good examples) and a general picture of improvement, particularly in patient experience.

    [Snip] there is simply no debate over the simple question over whether in general, [perceptions of the] NHS experience under Labour got better or worse.

    Hunt is risking over playing his hand by extending these to be representative of the entire organisation. [Snip]

  11. MrNameless – essentially what RogerH says. A low turnout election, except for those who care about Europe or have an axe to grind, who will dutifully turn up to protest.

    Barely anyone gives a stuff about what MEPs are returned, so it’s a free protest vote – people who don’t like the EU will vote for them, otherwise loyal Tory voters who want to send a message will vote for them, generic angry old men will vote for them. Plus the strong UKIP performance in 2009 means the BBC and other broadcasters will be obliged to give them acres of coverage in the run up to the European election, and what newspaper coverage there is will be probably be focussing on can UKIP win or not.

    They did very well last time when their general support was much lower, I’d expect them to come top this time round, but we shall see.

  12. @MrNameless

    Indeed, UKIP are now the most toxic party according to this poll

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8t9lek56it/YG-Archive-131112-NorthVSouth.pdf

    I would never consider voting for:
    Labour 24
    Conservative 33
    LD 35
    UKIP 43

    I also can’t see them winning in 2014.

  13. Populus Shows Labour 47% Ahead in the 18-24 Age Group

    Seems a little low to me,.

  14. Also see Farage’s satisfaction ratings

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/PolMon_Nov13_charts.pdf

    They are in free fall (slide 7)

    I think UKIP’s bubble is slowly deflating as they turn into the anti immigrant party, which looks a bit too much like the BNP/EDL for the mainstream voter.

  15. Do Ukip have much of a cost-of-living message? ‘Cos the lack of one could be a factor at the moment…

  16. And in the first sign of the Yorkshire-born and based Mr sykes’ largesse, UKIP have commission a poll of, er, Yorkshire[1]. From YouGov home Mr A Wells.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l3pn0qdb4x/YG-Archive-131030-UKIP.pdf

    Before statgeek gets too excited about this (sub-)regional poll, there’s no explicit VI. It covers the sort of things you would expect a UKIP poll to cover, notably immigration.

    [1] Though as far as I can see not Humberside, even the ex-Yorks bits.

  17. Do Ukip have much of a cost-of-living message? ‘Cos the lack of one could be a factor at the moment…

    -Flat Rate tax of 30% which is Great if you happen to be a Milionaire like Nigel Farage but not so brilliant if you are an OAP as they want NIC removed which means a 10% increase in the v base rate.

    Mind you that was the last time they published economic policy they have probably bought a new fag packet to write them on the back of since then.

    [Reading that one might be forgiven for thinking that you have a negative opinion of UKIP and their policies. Again, a good rule of thumb that you are posting in the *spirit* of non-partisanship is that it should not be immediately apparent to the casual reader which party you support – AW]

  18. @Richard

    “I would never consider voting for:
    Labour 24
    Conservative 33
    LD 35
    UKIP 43”

    This polling ties in with the little reported poll that YouGov conducted on behalf of the IIRC in September 2011. This measured the relative “toxicity” levels of the three main parties and, ipso facto, the size of their potential pools of support. It was a pretty impressive and extensive piece of research and, I would have thought, quite reliable. It showed clearly that the Conservatives had more “over their dead body” non-voters than either the Lib Dems and Labour and, therefore a much smaller pool of potential voters to draw upon. Labour were in the best position of the three parties by some margin.

    I’m not entirely sure of why this might be the case, and my speculation would get me into trouble with the site moderator, but I’ve always thought it was a highly significant factor in explaining the Tories recent electoral record and the current polling that continues to mystify many observers, not least Benedict Brogan of the Daily Telegraph.

    It certainly makes me a little sceptical about the possibility of a late Tory resurgence in May 2015. An improvement, possibly, but there appears to be a glass ceiling that is inhibiting their chances of a real electoral breakthrough. This is why I’m becoming ever more convinced that this may well be an election for Labour’s to lose now.

  19. Interesting that LibDs are more toxic than the Cons. That is a surprise.

  20. Alec/Anthony

    ” [Snip]”

    I found some of Alec’s words detracted from the excellent snipping – but otherwise a jolly good joint post.

    Keep ‘um coming.

  21. (snip)

  22. AW

    Heaven forefend!

    But as far as I am aware a flat 30% tax is still One of their core economic policies along with a 10% Corporation tax rate, both apparently affordable out of the massive gains they anticipate from leaving the EU!

    Godfrey Bloom believe it or not used to be their economic spokesman however since the unfortunate incidents at their Conference the details of their current economic policy seem to have disappeared.

  23. couper2802

    “Interesting that LibDs are more toxic than the Cons. That is a surprise.”

    I have been saying for ages that the most surprising thing about VI, post 2010, has been the 60% plus loss for LD and the very large % retention by the Cons.

    Given they are in a coalition with the LDs, who are the self-proclaimed “nice” bit, that is odd – but explains the “toxic” thinking.

    I have also pointed out that Cons seem to have a VERY narrow VI range and whilst they don’t vary too much they are totally buggered by the low ceiling. This is why they won’t win an overall majority in the near future.

  24. “I’m not entirely sure of why this might be the case, and my speculation would get me into trouble with the site moderator, ”

    Oh I don’t think there is much debate about it.

    No, actually, scratch that. I don’t think there *should* be much debate about it, a subtle but important difference.

    The Conservatives have a smaller pool of potential voters because (a) many people think they are more interested in helping the rich than ordinary people, (b) they are seen as uninterested in some parts of the country, some parts of society (c) they have a severe problem with connecting and getting support from ethnic minority voters.

    The last one in particular is a severe problem for them in the longer term. If Conservative support remains an almost exclusively white thing then they are fishing in an ever shrinking pool. They are just starting to make in roads into Indian middle-class voters, but slow progress.

  25. Steve – it is a matter of some debate (UKIP at the time said it wasn’t, that those were old 2010 policies that weren’t up to date. Godfrey Bloom insisted it still was the policy).

    It’s largely irrelevant, since I doubt hardly anyone saying they’d vote UKIP is aware of said policy.

  26. “Before statgeek gets too excited”

    If I do, you’ll blink and miss it anyway. Why on earth would I get excited about Yorkshire? (or UKIP for that matter)?

    Things that excite statgeek:

    – Solving a particularly complicated Excel formula problem, or web coding problem;

    – Narrowing of polls, in the run up to an election

    – Fit women

    If I could ‘get’ more of the 3rd, I would happily do without the 1st and the 2nd.

    :-p

  27. @Roger M
    Re that Yorkshire poll, you can still glean a fair bit from what they do disclose regarding VI.

    Unweighted VI is Con 215, Lab 338, LD 81, UKIP 101. We know that within those unweighted figures there are too many ABC1s compared to C2DEs, too many 60+s, too few Lab 2010s and too many LD 2010s ignoring false recall.

    So I’d judge that the hidden reweighting figures would be something along the lines of Con 27%, Lab 46%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%, Others (say) 5%.

    That’s Con -6%, Lab +11%, LD -13% and UKIP + 9% compared to GE 2010 in Yorkshire as a whole, although the absence of Humberside might cause that swing to be overstated by a point or two.

    Pretty well in line with national trends, then.

  28. And in the first sign of the Yorkshire-born and based Mr sykes’ largesse, UKIP have commission a poll of, er, Yorkshire[1]. From YouGov home Mr A Wells.

    Yorkshire and Humber will be interesting for the Euros. It’s a Green target seat (I know the lead Candidate). I will be at a count somewhere, keeping up to date with the electoral method used.

  29. AW
    I can only presume that German voters either got over their immigration hang-ups some time ago, or that they don’t have them, and the same goes for the tiny German anti-EU party.

    This is at odds with what has taken place in many other northern EU countries (nothing special about the UK as far as I can see).

    The recent Yorkshire poll, cited by RM, did not give me the impression other than that, for most UKIP voters, the two issues are conflated.

    IMO, the typical UKIP voter not only thinks that EU withdrawal will mean hardly any further immigration but that more importantly it will see the early removal of anyone the voter considers ‘not one of us’. It isn’t that the latter is what UKIP professes, it’s just what is thought by many of those currently giving VI support.

    I did write IMO. Whether my above paragraph holds water is only provable by some very astute questioning. Difficult.

  30. How about using a flat cap to denote any Yorkshire poll? Or maybe a stick of rhubarb.

  31. From the UKIP website
    What we stand for part 3
    :

    Outside the EU we will save £53m a day and we can give British workers the first crack at the 800,000 jobs we currently advertise to EU workers.
    No tax on the minimum wage.
    Local councils are to enroll unemployed welfare claimants onto community schemes or retraining workfare programmes.
    Scrap all green taxes, wind turbine subsidies and adopt nuclear power to free us from dependence on fossil fuels and foreign oil and gas.
    Develop shale gas and place the tax revenues into a British Sovereign Wealth Fund. Norway’s oil Sovereign Wealth Fund is now worth 0bn.
    Make real and rigorous cuts in foreign aid and replace with free trade.

  32. Hmm hit the button too fast
    That was supposed to be headed:

    ‘Rebuild Prosperity and Keeping the Lights On’ [sic]

    Apparently Norway’s oil Sovereign Wealth Fund is comparable to my personal Christmas fund

  33. @ Guy Monde

    Did you copy that directly from UKIP’s site i.e. the £0Bn?

  34. If your non-assets are counted in billions are you automatically richer?

  35. aw

    “The Conservatives have a smaller pool of potential voters because (a) many people think they are more interested in helping the rich than ordinary people, (b) they are seen as uninterested in some parts of the country, some parts of society (c) they have a severe problem with connecting and getting support from ethnic minority voters.”

    I think you can long term unenemployed, disabled, sick, single mothers, homosexual to the last point and you might well have to include the majority of public sector workers in the future.

  36. Phil – to keep with past themes it should really be

    Though I’m tempted by

    Or

  37. @AW
    LOL!

  38. “I think you can long term unemployed, disabled, sick, single mothers, homosexual to the last point and you might well have to include the majority of public sector workers in the future.”

    And possibly the majority under the age of 80.

  39. I can think of several prominent Conservatives who have problem connecting with homsexuals..

  40. argh… typo extravaganza…

  41. Who counts as an immigrant in Yorkshire? Is it anyone not born within the historic county boundaries?

  42. @ Amber Star

    “Did you copy that directly from UKIP’s site i.e. the £0Bn?”

    Yep. But in a very un-UKIP way they don’t grace it with a £ sign.

  43. @AW:

    My apologies, although it wasn’t intended to be entirely brainless. I recently attended a Tory Open Primary and the median age can’t have been far off 80.

  44. @ Statgeek,

    Have you tried showing the ladies your polling graphs?

  45. RH
    I don’t know what you were apologising for, presumably snipped input.
    On the Yorkshire poll I did not detect anything much that would not have been replicated among UKIP voters (or the rest) anywhere else.

    Your eyeballed age experiences of attenders at hustings, apolitical ones or otherwise, would not be untypical in my experience. I would expect that the only youthful ones would be people like yourself, a bit like the Question Time audience, although I have not seen that for years.

  46. Guymonde

    You would of thought if jobs were advertised first to EU workers that would mean as our people are EU workers then they could apply to!

    I suspect what they mean is not for those dirty rotten foreigners which is a bit of a bugger if you happen to be One of the 800,000+ UK citizens working in the rest of the EU and the nearly 1 Million UK OAP’s retired there (nearly half a million in Spain alone).

    But I doubt UKIPERS pay much attention to facts.

  47. Populus have the SNP and Labour neck and neck.

    Pinch of salt mantra does apply but as one poster has pointed out over the past few weeks, YouGov do tend to show the SNP consistently a poor second to Labour.

    STATGEEK, do you have a tracker with subsamples for Scotland showing results from the different pollsters over the past few weeks/month?

  48. @AW

    Betty’s….it must be surely?

    I remember it with great affection from my student days.

    Yorkshire was always the land of the bap-sandwich for me!

    In early 1970’s in Yorkshire ‘High Tea’ was still served at 5 or 6 in the afternoon in big towns like Leeds and Wakefield – sandwiches; fish and chips or gammon pineapple and chips; tea and cream cakes or jelly, tinned fruit and cream….

  49. Some interesting posts about the challenges for the Tories in appealing to more voters.

    This article is worth a read.

    http://www.platform10.org/2013/03/why-the-tories-shouldnt-lurch-to-the-right/

    I think I would agree with most of it. The Tories needs to be right in the centre of politics and not try to compete with UKIP. If they spend most of the 2015 election campaign talking about the EU, I think that would be a big mistake.

  50. Steve

    It’s all very well, but it is noticeable that your forceful points are not exactly being advanced with conviction (or at all) by the political parties that you would expect (Lab or LD or – indeed, why not Con?). They are presumably a wee bit frit.

    This is the secret of UKIP’s success.

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