The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up online here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%. There is little change in the leaders doing well/badly figures – 37% think Cameron is doing well, 56% badly, a net score of minus 19 (from minus 18 last week). Miliband’s net score is minus 32 (from minus 28 last week), Clegg’s minus 54 (unchanged).

Most of the rest of the poll was mostly filled up with Christmas, though there were a batch of questions on immigration.. UKIP continue to lead the mainstream parties on the issue – 25% would trust UKIP the most, compared to 17% for the Conservatives, 13% for Labour. There is little difference in attitudes towards immigrations from inside or outside the EU, in both cases around 70% would like to see tougher limits.

Looking specifically at EU immigration, 22% of people think there is nothing wrong with EU immigration into the UK, 20% think it is damaging, but that Britain has no practical choice but to accept it. 42% think that Britain should act to limit EU immigration even if it means breaking EU law or British citizens losing their own right to live elsewhere in Europe.


364 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 12”

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  1. “If you asked most people they would say that their personal cost of living has increased by more than the rate of inflation that the ONS publised.”
    —————————-
    Good point. I doubt whether official figures take account of shrinking quantities. The price of the pack may be much the same but when the weight has been trimmed, or more water / fresh air / sawdust added then I think that food price rises in the real world are much higher than we are led to believe. You can’t fool all the people all of the time.

  2. TOH
    “I was actually making a serious comment.”

    What about ? You said ““I think Grant Scapps and Ed Miliband have a great deal in common.” but didn’t go on to say what you think they have in common.

    What exactly do you think they have in common ?

  3. rosieanddaisie

    Why is SHAPPS such a difficult name to spell by the way?

    Well he seems to have problems with it himself, what with spelling it MICHAEL GREEN and so on. So I think you should give TOH a pass on this one

  4. Rog

    Its sChapps that puzzles me most.

    As though he’s a fizzy drink rather than a

  5. Roger M
    “what with spelling it MICHAEL GREEN and so on”

    Lol, don’t forget Sebastien Fox made an appearance too.

  6. Colin

    If Iread your comment correctly is it that you think the Tory Party has flocked off?

  7. Well, ’97 is tricky, ‘cos there are many potential VI candidates. Sleaze, party infighting, ERM fiasco, tired government/fancying a change… Personally I don’t think one should ignore what happened to house prices/negative equity, and the services issue, especially schools and hospitals.

    Meanwhile, our cricket team did not do well in the Nineties. (On the other hand, there was no VAT on storage…)

  8. Well I suppose Shapps and Miliband are about the same age both were educated via the state system ,

    Actually Shapps and I both went to the same College in Watford and We share the same Birthday

    []

  9. (On the other hand, there was no VAT on storage…)

    They were golden days.

  10. Rather like Warsi before him, I think Schapps is actually a disaster for the Tories and, if I was to offer them any advice, I’d suggest a much more emollient and conciliatory figure in his place. He’s way to partisan and abrasive and I’m fairly sure that he’s a vote loser and not a vote winner whenever he pops up on the airwaves. He may appeal to the blue blooded Labour-loather, but to the non-aligned I would imagine he reminds them of why they don’t vote Tory.

    That said, maybe I don’t understand the floating voter and he’s the Conservatives secret weapon! lol

  11. “Save Me I am turning Tory!”

    I’m trying hard meself – just for balance.

    This site is turning into a left-wing-love-in.

  12. That Grant Shapps is a smashing bloke: would make a great PM in my opinion.

  13. cross batty

    I thought they were torturing a confession out of you?

  14. I share a birthday with Robert Mugabe. Goodness knows what that implies about my politics.

  15. @R Huckle.

    There will always, of course, be questions about what exactly the ONS includes in the “Basket” for inflation calculations, which is why it is subject to review and change.

    I am resistant to the idea that somehow the ONS have got it wildly off the mark, and their basket of goose eggs, electric nose hair trimmers and gold lame dinner jackets (or whatever it is) doesn’t represent the average spend of “normal” people.

    Labour, for good reason, is pushing a message that people are “worse off” and for this reason there is a political imperative to convince people that prices are soaring and their incomes are tumbling. Hence inflation figures have to be rubbished and GDP figures have to be undermined.

    I think they have a point with regard to incomes, as the figures show average incomes falling or at least stagnating, but unless someone produces some actual evidence-based argument to show that “real inflation” is higher than the ONS figures then I reserve the right to ignore it as propaganda.

    Given that this is a polling website, however, I am prepared to concede that the voters seem to buying into Labour’s message and this is what has pushed up the lead in the past couple of weeks.

    @Ozwald,

    I know that size reduction is a favourite trick of retailers, but I’d be surprised if the ONS fall for it. Stranger things have happened though.

  16. @Rosieanddaisie,

    Imagine how tedious you’d find this site if there was a 25 long string of ROC commenters agreeing how venal and incompetent Labour are.

  17. That Thatcher inherited a nasty economic situation not of her making is certainly true. There was a second oil price surge in Labour’s final year in office, peaking early in Thatcher’s first term, sending inflation rocking again and hammering the economy.

    The issue is whether she implemented the best response. A near-doubling of VAT when you already have high inflation is not exactly the ideal response, for example…

  18. @AnthonyWells

    Have you any idea what it is in Yougov’s methodology that causes Greens to score lower than other pollsters?

  19. I share my birthday with the day Oliver Cromwell was named Lord Protector – which could explain a lot.

    On the question of throwing resources into fighting a particular seat, I have to say I am a bit sceptical of the effect of local campaigning vis a vis the national picture. This is based on my own experience in 1995. As has been said above this was a period when people were sick & tired of the Tories and were just voting for the party best placed to remove them or keep them out.

    I stood as Labour candidate in our Council election really as a paper candidate in a ward that had three sitting LibDems with the Tories in second place. We did hardly any campaigning. We leafletted about one third of the ward and did no canvassing whatsoever as we just assumed the LibDems would win the seat easily. Both the Tories and LibDems put a lot into the campaign.

    On polling day I went to work. We had no-one on the polling stations and did no knocking up. I came home from work, had tea and went off to the count. The result of which was that I got elected in a seat that had never ever had a Labour councillor before.

    That’s why I am a bit sceptical about how much effect local campaigning has!

  20. @ Carfrew
    Meanwhile Labour have hired Arnie Graf to train up a thousand in his methods… this will allow them to set up community-based networks across-the-board over time, in constituencies currently off the radar, but at low cost.
    —————–
    But ahead of that ‘slow-burn’ initiative, Movement for Change is training activists with the emphasis being on target seats. A full-time organiser is being assigned to all Labour targets.

  21. @ Norbold

    Has Labour retained the seat since you won it?

  22. No. I lost it in 1999. And we’ve never won it again!

  23. Neil A

    That’s why I am going native – or whatever it is.

    Its the British sense of fair play.

  24. @ Neil A

    Imagine how tedious you’d find this site if there was a 25 long string of ROC commenters agreeing how venal and incompetent Labour are.
    —————
    You’re joking, yes? Because that’s definitely what it was like in the run up to 2010; & for a good while after that election. Alec, Sue Marsh & I used to regularly take some right good ‘kickings’ but here we are… well not Sue so much now, she got inspired to start her own site!

  25. Handel Finished His Messiah and Chubby Checker Performed the Twist on Our Joint Birthday so a choice of Music to accompany out Joint Party at the Rant and Trot!

  26. Though perhaps I should add, it is now a Conservative held seat and we have replaced the LibDems as the main opposition. It is one we are hopeful for in 2015.

  27. Pablo –

    No idea. For the record here are the averages for the Greens for each company for the polls so far this year:

    MORI 4.2%
    ComRes (P) 3.9%
    ComRes (O) 3.5%
    Opinium 3.4%
    TNS 2.9%
    Populus 2.7%
    Survation 2.6%
    ICM 2.5%
    YouGov 2.2%

  28. @ Norbold

    No. I lost it in 1999. And we’ve never won it again!
    ————-
    Maybe having a stronger activist base would’ve kept it red; maybe not – but in my experience it does make a difference.

  29. @ Norbold

    It is one we are hopeful for in 2015.
    ————-
    Good luck! And I hope you get lots of activists on the team. ;-)

  30. @ Chordata,

    Crikey I didn’t expect discussions about Leader’s hair on this site.

    Can’t think why not. YouGov were polling about Paxo’s beard a few months ago. ;)

    @ Doggies,

    Why is SHAPPS such a difficult name to spell by the way?

    Dunno, but I always seem to put in an unnecessary ‘C’. Perhaps I’m confusing it with “schnapps”?

  31. @ Nick P,

    Team Red should find those analyses of the Conservatives’ weak polling very reassuring. It’s clear that Brogan and Walshe have no grasp whatsoever of the problem, and if that bafflement is mirrored within Tory HQ… It’s all very Labour 1983, except that the sane wing of the party isn’t intentionally promoting a demented manifesto so the extremists can lose on it, they’re just being completely ignored by their leadership. Poor, poor Rob Halfon. (And lucky, lucky us.)

    @ Colin Davis,

    Oh God, please don’t let’s have the “Which party is more moral?” “How dare you say we’re evil!” “I wasn’t saying I think you’re evil (though I do), just that the electorate think so!” argument again. That never goes to a good place.

  32. @AMBER STAR

    “But ahead of that ‘slow-burn’ initiative, Movement for Change is training activists with the emphasis being on target seats. A full-time organiser is being assigned to all Labour targets.”

    ————

    Yes, I am not saying Labour should completely ignore those seats.

    What I am saying is that Labour shouldn’t just let the Libdems keep their seats, for fear of letting Tories in. That was the point at issue.

    I am saying that with a careful attention to policy, cred., and judicious use of resources, they should endeavour to eliminate future opportunities for their vote to be split.

    If Labour look to be winning handily anyway, I said, then this allows further redeployment to this end.

    Tories have allowed a split to occur and it’s not doing them any favours. It’s something Labour should constantly attend to. And it wasn’t UKip activists who were the dominant reason for that split growing. It was stuff like policy.

    Equally, for all their activists, Libdem VI has tumbled. Activists have to work with the policy/cred hand they are given. And with a bad hand, not only is it harder to win people over, but you’ll have fewer activists anyway.

    If Labour want to stop a split reoccurring they have to try and shape policy to keep Libdems boxed in further to the right, and not allow them back in on the left again.

  33. I always think Shapps sounds a bit short, strident & repetitive. He seems to think he should speak like a tweet.

  34. Norbold
    I respectfully submit that your serendipitous discovery was after all but an anecdote, (but hugely comforting to all those who slave at these things). We were all rooting for you recently down in F&scist Frinton,(or was it Con Clacton?. My anecdote is that I have the same wedding anniversary as the POW (his first time around) but unlike his example, I am still in harness. In fact I targeted her from the first moment I saw her (see back on topic).

  35. “I share my birthday with the day Oliver Cromwell was named Lord Protector”

    You’re older than you look then.

  36. @Neil A
    Imagine how tedious you’d find this site if there was a 25 long string of ROC commenters agreeing how venal and incompetent Labour are.
    ______

    You don’t need to imagine, just have a look at political betting. At least over here things are moderated properly.

  37. amber

    “I always think Shapps sounds a bit short, strident & repetitive. He seems to think he should speak like a tweet.”

    I think he’s great – a future pm or my name is not gunga din.

    Did you mean “a” rather than the two “e’s” by the way?

    Some people DO think that – but not me or the gurls. We think he’s jolly good.

  38. howard

    ” I have the same wedding anniversary as the POW”

    Whish prisoner-of-war do you mean?

    There have been lots of wars and even more prisoners. I think that must apply to all of us and therefore you are disqualified.

  39. Phil Haines

    I haven’t looked at PB (certainly not the comments) for yonks. I have great respect for the owner who was never partisan or unfair in his analysis IMO.

    What beats me is why people who are gamblers should be partisan. I mean if you are a successful gambler (whoops, oxymoron)………

  40. @ROSIEANDDAISIE
    (On the other hand, there was no VAT on storage…)
    They were golden days.

    ——–

    Cocktails were cheaper too. And guitars…

  41. Paul Croft

    I did ponder on that one but decided to be your ‘straight man’ this time.

  42. @HOWARD

    “What beats me is why people who are gamblers should be partisan.”

    ———

    Well, let’s say they’ve bet on a Tory victory, because the odds give a chance of a greater return on your stake. It would then be in the interests of all those who’ve done that to try and support a Tory victory…

  43. @RosieandDaisie

    “cross batty
    I thought they were torturing a confession out of you?”

    They were, but I withstood all they threw at me, including the comfy cushions, and refused to sign the outrageous statement that had been prepared for me. Good job too because, on reading it, they were trying to link me to a series of unsolved crimes that had occurred in the West Midlands throughout the 1980s. Some listed weren’t too serious, but I was damned if I was going to admit a particularly violent armed robbery in Kings Heath in 1982.

  44. @Howard
    I haven’t a problem with the threads themselves, it’s rather that the comments are utterly disrespectful to other contributors, so I choose to steer well clear.

  45. 1995 was one of those famous disaster years like 1968, where the only people more horrified than the people who lost their seats were the ones who got elected. The HoC research paper:

    http://www.parliament.uk/Templates/BriefingPapers/Pages/BPPdfDownload.aspx?bp-id=RP95-59

    gives a projected result of Labour at 46-47% and the Tories only on 25%.

    Even with neither London or Scotland voting it was a massacre of blues. Labour (5647) and the Lib Dems (2712) both got more seats than the Conservatives (2069) in a poll weighted heavily towards the latter’s heartlands and Labour won seats where they never had before or since. Norbold certainly wasn’t alone in being flummoxed.

  46. Gawd, Crossbat, does it really work like that down the nick?

    Congrats on walking free again!

  47. Spearmint,

    I wonder what Michael Heseltine thinks of that, given he used to be a LibNat?

    Seriously though, that’d go down like a spoonful of cold porridge. The SLF would split off, the right wing of the Tories would split off, it’d be disastrous for both parties.

  48. Roger – I was chatting to someone about 1968 the other day – an absolutely barmy election. Prior to 1968 every single councillor is Islington was Labour, 1968 – a Conservative landslide in Islington (presumably mostly paper candidates). 1971, every single councillor in Islington was Labour again.

  49. MrNameless – the SLF would have no reason to split off! Look carefully, Boles isn’t recommending that the Lib Dems become the national liberals. He’s recommending that the Conservatives set up their own national liberals, and presumably attempt to tempt some Lib Dems to leave the Lib Dem party and join the NatLibs.

    Anyway, not going to happen.

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