The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the monthly online ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror are both out tonight and both are in line with the general trend we’ve seen of increased Labour leads.

Opinium in the Observer have voting intentions of CON 28%(-3), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 16%(nc). Full tabs are here.

ComRes have topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 17%(+1). Tabs are here.


103 Responses to “Latest ComRes and Opinium polls”

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  1. Black Wednesday was on the 16th September 1992.

    In August 1992 the Con vs Lab VI was 41/41.

    In October 1992 it was Con 34 Lab 45.

    Up to the GE in 1997 the Conservatives never led again in the polls (based on monthly averages).

  2. Bit of an over-reaction by Gove to Cowell’s light-hearted school comment.

    Some people need to lighten up occasionally.

  3. I know plenty of people who did well at school and university, but due to things like not being able to afford to do work experience for nothing (ie they had to pay their own rent and buy their own food), they did not get a shot at the some really good careers.

    Maybe you have to be lucky to get on (or at least come from a rich background).

  4. That’s just nonsense and you know it.

  5. I wish it was nonsense, sadly it isn’t so.

  6. @Crossbat

    Agree completely. Misoverestimating the Tories is just as dangerous as misunderestimating them, as it could breed a dangerous apprehension in Labour ranks and lead to unnecessary caution on the policy front. As they say in football, if you go in for a tackle half-heartedly because you’re scared of getting injured, you’re more likely to get injured.

  7. “That’s just nonsense and you know it.”

    And the Tories ain’t in freefall.

    “Labour will be working very hard to convince people it’s not really happening.”

    The problem is, I think, that you are one of a large-ish minority* that thinks that because you are pro-Government and their Thatcherite approach that in some way it will (a) work, and (b) if it doesn’t it will later, and (c) if it still doesn’t it must be Labour ly1ng about it. Presumably using their stranglehold on the newspapers and TV channels.

    *fluctuating about 30% of those who vote

  8. CATMANJEFF

    Given that Cowell is likely to have a lot more influence in the UK than Gove (who, in any case, only has responsibility within a bit of that state), I find myself for the first (and probably last) time agreeing with Gove.

    Since most people don’t have a rich background, suggesting to them that “getting lucky” was their best chance of success is a National Lottery approach to life.

  9. @AndyJS
    In many areas, UKIP seem to have taken much of the protest/anti-establishment vote, which doesn’t seem to be reflected in these polls. Areas where Greens tend to do well, UKIP don’t and vice versa, so to both simultaneously have strong showings is imho quite unusual.

  10. @Oldnat

    Since most people don’t have a rich background, suggesting to them that “getting lucky” was their best chance of success is a National Lottery approach to life./i>

    I actually don’t think it’s a lottery mostly – it’s set largely by social background. The higher the social background you come from, the less lucky you need to be.

    Isn’t that what John Major was saying the other day?

  11. Had Cowell offered his response to a question in an interview as a serious piece of career advice then he could merit criticism.

    It wasn’t a great joke but I can’t imagine it made any difference at all to the rather large number of young people who wish to be “famous” but, not only do they have no special talent, they actual don’t even have a specific area of interest.

  12. Correction

    @Oldnat

    Since most people don’t have a rich background, suggesting to them that “getting lucky” was their best chance of success is a National Lottery approach to life.

    I actually don’t think it’s a lottery mostly – it’s set largely by social background. The higher the social background you come from, the less lucky you need to be.

    Isn’t that what John Major was saying the other day?

  13. WINDSOFCHANGE

    A very appropriate moniker!

    They may well be sweeping (well, maybe breezing) across politics in this country.

    If discussion of the Macbethian question were allowed, I’d mention that SLab worthies Sir Charles Gray, former Labour Leader of Strathclyde, and Alex Mosson, former Labour Lord Provost of Glasgow are voting Yes in 2014.

    But it’s not – so I won’t.

  14. DS

    “Misoverestimating the Tories ”

    Is that the same as underoverestimating them or have I got it wrong?

  15. CATMANJEFF

    I don’t disagree. Every indicator suggests the the social capital you inherit determines your future.

    To buck that, you either need to outperform the advantaged – or win the Lottery.

    Most people can do neither, but for those with an ability of some sort working hard can reduce the barriers.

  16. @Oldnat

    I know you are right.

    I’m just being a touch cynical…or is that realistic?

  17. CATMANJEFF

    Being uncynical is the one way to guarantee that you will be shafted by those in power! :-)

  18. @OldNat
    I don’t understand? What are you referring to? :)

  19. Sometimes, the decisions of political parties “passeth all understanding”. Every one of them has demonstrated suicidal tendencies at one time or another, but Scottish Labour still seems to have a problem with relating to electoral defeat.

    http://archive.is/tnbMU

    I applaud their decision to achieve gender equality in representation (they are the best in Scotland on that basis along with the Greens) but what is being reported as the strategy to prioritise the reselection of what was their (at best) their second eleven in 2011 seems odd.

    They have good MSPs in place, like Kez Dugdale, but many of the current crop are widely recognised as the kind of inconspicuous folk parties put up where they don’t expect them ever to be elected.

    Due to their previous policy they lost a lot of their heavy-hitters, and there seems no way back for them.

    In the event of a Yes vote next year (no matter how unlikely current polling makes that seem) existing MPs would be restricted to a 1 year continuation of their role, rather than seeking a dual mandate – and depriving Scotland of some of its best politicians in an active role.

    Selecting candidates for an uncertain future two and a half years before the election seems a strange decision.

    Of course, the Herald may have got the story wrong and Amber or someone else will be able to clarify.

  20. WINDSOFCHANGE

    I was referring to “Winds of Change”!

    McMillan’s phrase (which I assumed you were adopting) isn’t something which is only applicable to the “other” parts of the Empire, but the bits at home as well.

    Seismic political change is routine – though there may be many years between its occurrences – as with the replacement of the Liberals by Labour.

    There is no reason to assume that we aren’t living through a similar period of political party turbulence as happened 100 years ago.

    The current UK party system has had a good innings, but it may not have much substance left.

  21. Another poll tracking attitudes.

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/17/1963-opinion-poll-westminster-public

    “Significantly, in 2013 only 17% think that “having elections makes government pay a good deal of attention to what people think”, against 46% in 1963.

    Yet in contrast, 28% now say they take “a good deal” of interest in politics, up from 16%, while 43% take “some” interest, compared with 37% in 1963.”

    “There was a sense that there is a consensus in Westminster around the sort of economy we need and on inequality, and that the way to make a difference was to get involved in campaigning in new political organisations.”

  22. A nice summary here tracking the trends in the questions

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/11/16/most-voters-cannot-imagine-ed-miliband-as-pm/

    Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party
    I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy
    I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy

    Ed and Ed are at an all time low on the economy question
    David and George are not close behind

    I agree with Old Nat and this comment “The current UK party system has had a good innings, but it may not have much substance left.”

    We saw it at the last general election with the Lib Dem surge – people are crying out for something different. Unfortunately the Lib Dems disappointed, but you can see in the poll I linked to earlier and the one on political satisfaction yesterday – there is a growing mass that wants change, but with nowhere to go at the moment.

  23. @Billy Bob (from a few threads ago)

    “Fantastic! I don’t think I’ve seen that 1898 photograph of 3rd and Hill before… can you imagine it?
    Btw, I’ve found one or two online stores which sell old photos – hard to resist – and, what do you know, international postage from Lakewood, for example, works out cheaper than many UK sellers’ rates.”

    It’s hard to imagine but I’ve actually seen those photos before. I have two books of historic photography from around the city and both contain that shot. You can see the same photo from the late 1800’s where it looks like a small town and fairly bucolic to the 1940’s and 1950’s where it has clearly developed into a major city and has the almost European feel that you described (certainly Clay Street did). You can also see the decay from wealthy neighborhood to slum.

    Cool that Lakewood had better rates. There was a time when Lakewood was the inspiration for Leave it to Beaver.

    If I could purchase a time machine, I’d go back in time and prevent the destruction of Bunker Hill. Instead, we’d build the new financial district and civic center where the Staples Center and the poorly named new “South Park” neighborhood is. That would have made the city truly amazing. I find that when I visit San Francisco, it feels like a big downtown LA.

    Speaking of San Francisco, did this make international news?

    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-san-francisco-batkid-miles-wish-20131115,0,3735507.story?page=1&fb_action_ids=10151834172174825&fb_action_types=og.recommends&fb_ref=s%3DshowShareBarUI%3Ap%3Dfacebook-like#axzz2kjk57VN5

    One of the sweeter stories I’ve seen. San Franciscans have won my heart. (The actual fake indictment made me laugh).

  24. It remains the economy stupid. But which one? The paper economy suggests that the recovery is well under way. Inflation is lower than expected. Employment is up.

    But in the felt economy inflation in the cost of living – fuel, energy, housing, food – is a lot higher. People continue to feel broke, and life is tough. Unemployment is higher than in may 2010 and employment in too many cases is not enough hours, money or security of tenure.

    Its not that these things are all exclusively the Tories fault. But when they hear Cameron defend high energy bills, or tell them its better than they feel it is, or see the impact of attacks on people struggling like them, they blame the Tories anyway.

    People want a return to the good times, but are questioning what could be improved. For example I work in manufacturing and we use a lot of migrant labour because that’s all that’s available. At the same time many of our wives can’t afford to go back to work because childcare is like a second mortgage. So a lot of discussion about an unaffordable cost of living, and in capping energy bills Ed at least recognises the issue.

    This is killing the Tories -they seem unwilling to address the massive imbalance in the economy. They need to find a credible way to do this and quickly.

  25. Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th November – Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -30

  26. So Tories NOT in freefall…

  27. Lib Dems on 10 looks too high especially on the back of their inaction on the bedroom tax vote

  28. Good Morning All.
    CHRIS: I agree with you, Chris on the Lib Dem figure!

  29. ANDY JS

    “With respect, why on earth would there be any correlation between UKIP and Green support?”

    I wouldn’t have thought so, which is why I was surprised to learn that a Green Councillor in Bradford had defected to UKIP.

  30. No – not appropriate to talk of Tories in freefall, although there does appear to be general agreement amongst all posters that they have lost around 10% of their support in a short space of time. Decimated would be a historically correct term, although not if using the modern meaning.

    Understanding why this is the case is much more difficult than deciding what has actually happened in the polls. I don’t personally believe there is a single stand out issue. The bedroom tax has been mentioned, but pollingwise this is a neutral issue, and benefits cuts remain popular. At best, this might firm up a few votes but it doesn’t feel like an explanation for the 2-4% movements we’ve seen.

    Talk of austerity and a golden throne as a killer image – nonsense, I suspect. It was such a killer that I missed all coverage of it and remain completely oblivious to what everyone is talking about, so I really can’t agree that this has anything at all to do with it.

    There are mounting noises from within the NHS, which are likely to cause voter concerns at some point, but I can’t say that these look like the impact on VI has already happened.

    Personally, I’m left with two theories. Labour lost ground over the summer, which we can all agree on. The reason was probably the return of economic growth, and the absence of Ed M and Lab from public appearances. Labour maintained a radio silence for a long period, but roared right back with their conference. Things have been better for them since, but the big poll move is occurring now – two months on.

    Theory 1 is the reverse of what people were saying about Cameron and the Tories pre 2010. Perhaps when Ed gets himself into the news, people like what they see? Low expectations, trumped by actual performance? I’m not sure about this, but if this were to be true, deeply worrying for Cons.

    Theory 2 is altogether simpler. I posted a day or two ago about consumer confidence. The main regular household confidence measure has recorded a rising or static score throughout 2013, climbing from -29 to -10 in September. October saw the first fall in a year – marginal, to -11, but still a fall.

    There is much talk of the economy improving, but we’ve had figures showing incomes lagging prices continually by around 1.5%, we’ve had figures showing sharp falls in retail sales, and we’ve had figures showing a sharp fall in inflation, which while beneficial looking ahead, could equally be a retrospective signal that demand is weakening.

    We know the summer spending uplift has been funded by increased borrowing and a slashing of savings ratios, and we also know that business investment has remained weak. Consumers can only go on so long in this way, before they will pull their horns back in if real wages don’t move ahead and help replace savings and credit as the main drivers of spending. This hasn’t happened, so spending can’t keep on rising indefinitely.

    So Theory 2 is the one where as winter draws in, consumers find that their sense of confidence from the summer is slipping below the horizon like the November sun, and the mood turns downwards again.

    Linked to seeing an opposition party now starting to talk their language, this might be the reason why polls have started to move?

  31. Delighted to see the investigation into trade Union behaviour. The behaviour of Unite certainly needs investigation, large scale demonstrations outside managers houses have no place in aq civilized society.

  32. TOH

    I’m pleased you’re delighted. Now about those opinion polls….

  33. It is only because of the sample weighting that Labour have a single digit lead. Look at the unweighted figures and Labour have a lead of about 11%.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/08oexwxpab/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-151113.pdf

  34. @R HUCKLE
    I guess what I’m saying is that, I suspect even growing incomes may not be enough fro the tories


    For the 5.5 Million Public Sector Workers who already know their pay rises are going to be limited to inflation MINUS 1 or 2 and know that their pension contributions are going to go up by 2% in the next 2 Years,with promises by the Conservatives of more “restraint” (cuts) for at least another 3 Years there is no anticipation of good times ahead.

    I can’t remember when the survey was conducted , a few years back but as I recall around 30% of Nurses 35% of Teachers and 50% of Doctors and Police Officers who were surveyed identified themselves as Conservatives.

    It would be interesting to see a similar survey now.

    It might be that the cuts in public sector pay alone and the perceived unfairness compared to the cuts for the richest are sufficient to lose the Tories the 2015 Election

  35. ROSIEANDDAISIE
    Bit of an over-reaction by Gove to Cowell’s light-hearted school comment.
    Some people need to lighten up occasionally.

    -Cowell might have the X Factor
    Gove Definitely has the Why Factor

  36. Catmanjef

    I doubt members of the Windsor Clan gather round the TV on a Saturday Night thinking maybe but maybe it could be me who strikes it lucky in the lottery, only to remember they already have.

  37. I guess that there has been no accelerated decline in Con VI recently. Never underestimate random variation – not rare to get 6 heads in a row tossing a coin. Keep a firm eye on Yougov, the best indicator of trends. The evidence suggests a recent increase of a point or so for Lab and a more or less level Con score – possibly, but not certainly, just a slight decline.

  38. Steve

    I cannot imagine the Royal Family watching any of the rubbish that goes for entertainment on Saturday night TV.

  39. There was also a YouGov Sunday Times Poll out with little change other than YouGov are mystifyingly back to reporting a Conservative lead in the under 24’s compared to 10%+ Leads for Labour in both the other Polls today and virtually every other poll by every other pollster.

  40. I understand ,according to Virgin The Queen is a fan of Casualty.

    Perhaps She Get’s Her TV Footman to record it for Her!

  41. “I cannot imagine the Royal Family watching any of the rubbish that goes for entertainment on Saturday night TV.”

    I can. They are mostly low achievers academically and probably enjoy a bit of intellectually unchallenging entertainment.

  42. @ Steve
    Her Madge has a transvestite footman?

    Real incomes will by all accounts remain on the slide but I think part of the political strategy is to boost house prices. This creates two fairly immediate benefits – homeowners feel better off and they can (and do) finance current spending by floating loans against equity or running down ‘unnecessary’ savings.
    It also costs the government nothing – any tears from negative equity/repossessions/paying out on bank guarantees come after the election

  43. @Alec,

    If you call 2:2 degrees “low achievement”.

    I take it you’re on the Gove side of the Gove-Cowell divide then?

  44. @ Old Nat,

    I always find it interesting that commentators frequently dismiss Euro results because they don’t reflect Westminster voting – though both are equally good reflections of political opinion.

    Are they? Turnout:

    2010 General election: 65%
    2009 Euro election: 34%

  45. To say the Tories are in freefall is overstating the case, but they do seem to having a bad round of polls. (Even including the YouGov one- that would have been a good poll for Labour two weeks ago and now looks like a bad poll.) I’m with Alec on this one; I think it’s a “Winter is coming” issue rather than any specific misstep on the part of the Coalition or any knockout punch by Labour.

    The Coalition only has two answers to problems- if it’s to do with a public service “Privatisation/more competition will fix it” and if it’s not “Austerity will fix the economy and a growing economy will fix it”. If either of those narratives are proven wrong- and between the looming NHS crisis and the cost of living crisis they are being hit on both sides at once- they’re left looking helpless, because they’re the Government and “The government will step in and fix this” is not in their intellectual toolkit.

    (The corresponding danger for Labour is that they say the government will fix something and then it can’t, which is going to be a huge problem for them if they get in. But of course that’s not a danger in opposition.)

  46. My view is that the political strategy of boosting house prices is just a convenient by-product of the economic strategy.

    Osborne’s conundrum was to increase demand in the economy without spending any public money. Help-to-buy is a wizard wheeze because the spending is in the form of guarantees, which don’t show up in the public accounts. (In fact, it is actually public spending that could materialise in a big way in a few years time when the borrowers default.)

    Nevertheless, there is a very real effect from the actual spending on the economy now, which counts for now as “private sector” even though it is only happening because it is backed by government guarantees.

  47. I did say there would probably be a closing of the gap with DC looking suitably concerned in Sri Lanka and being on TV a lot.

    Strange how this guides a major voting decision but it does.

    I am sure he is genuine and it probably comes over like that to most other people as well.

  48. “their sense of confidence from the summer is slipping below the horizon like the November sun”

    This is poetry almost at its best.

    Maybe if you’d added one more word commencing with S and used “like the sun in November” at the beginning and “like a slippery thing” at the end, I could have given you more alliteration points Alec.

    I began a song once with..

    “I’ve been saving all my sad songs, Susanne to sing someday.”

    That’s probably the sort of brilliance you should be aiming for.

  49. @OldNat
    I still have no clue what you’re talking about, sorry! Which bit of my comments have you been responding to?

  50. “@OldNat
    I still have no clue what you’re talking about, sorry! Which bit of my comments have you been responding to?”

    I believe he is simply referring to the famous speech which used your moniker “winds of change”. I assume you know it?

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