The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the monthly online ComRes poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror are both out tonight and both are in line with the general trend we’ve seen of increased Labour leads.

Opinium in the Observer have voting intentions of CON 28%(-3), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 16%(nc). Full tabs are here.

ComRes have topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 17%(+1). Tabs are here.


103 Responses to “Latest ComRes and Opinium polls”

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  1. Lab steady.

    Con in freefall.

  2. I posted previously on the remarkable agreement in the polls, but now we appear to have a full house – almost unheard of. Significant drop on Con support across pretty much all pollsters, albeit a couple probably reversion to mean.

    Very odd, in many ways, as the economic mood music has been much better of late.

  3. Reasons:

    Energy bIlls arriving…Government response? “Put on a jumper.”

  4. The broad right is winning about 45%, the same as a Thatcher in 1979. Unfortunately for them it’s heavily split between two parties. (I know not all UKIP voters think if themselves as being on the right).

  5. I wonder if the bedroom tax debate midweek has damaged the Tory brand. It could have had an effect on people that don’t count themselves as “political” but have been moved by some of the personal stories that have emerged.

    I think the Conservatives thought the bedroom tax was a winning wedge issue, forcing the opposition to either back “benefit scroungers” or face the flack from their own side. But maybe instead the wedge has operated on the Conservative side…

  6. Note how the number of unweighted UKIP voters is increased by around 10% by ComRes and by around 5% for Opinium. And compare it to Populus, who decrease the % of unweighted UKIP voters by nearly 50%.

    They can’t all be correct.

  7. I think the Tories are making a number of tactical errors.

    Their advantage would appear to be better economic news. What do they do? Attack the NHS, play the “austerity forever” card, support big business, and of course visit a dictator with blood on his hands.

    The welfare attacks look less necessary and more nasty if we ain’t broke any more too.

    I will continue to expect a 30/40/10/15 outcome…

  8. I think Nick P has raised a good point. The coalition governments response to Labours energy price freeze has been a bit lacking, with some silly comments. Perhaps all they should have said is that the government is concerned about energy prices and would be looking at what it could do to help consumers. There should then have been discussion between the parties as to how to handle the matter.

    This is where being in coalition can start to become a bit tricky. The nearer it gets to the election, the more stained the relationship will be, as both parties will be looking ahead to the election. When issues come up for which there is no coalition strategy, they have get together quickly to form an agreed strategy. It is not the same as having a one party government, where there would probably be a policy all the cabinet are signed up to.

    The other nightmare for the Tories is UKIP, as they are still mopping up many of the old traditional Tory anti- EU voters.

    Another possible factor for the decline in the Tories vote, is that some people don’t trust them with the NHS. There has been recent media coverage about issues facing the NHS and perhaps some views that the recent NHS reforms are partly to blame, have affected the Tories. If the NHS reforms cause failures over this Winter, then the Tories will be in for a bad time in regard to polling.

  9. PHIL HAINES

    Are those weighting factors being applied solely on the basis of their 2010 votes, or is the weighting up or down the cumulative result of all the weighting factors?

    If the latter, then it could just be differently unrepresentative samples collected by the pollsters – and they could actually all be correct.

  10. To return to the discussion I had with Allan Christie, Old Nat and other last night regarding differences between the SNP’s suport per YouGov and other pollsters.

    YouGov’s recent (Westminster) polls show 27% SNP support in their Scotland sample. These two show 38/169 (or 25.5%) for ComRes and 52/183 (or 28.4%) for Opinium. While the samples are tiny, these two polls do not support the notion that YouGov’s methodology is understating SNP support.

  11. JAMES E

    You were using the unweighted figure for the Opinium poll. The weighted figure is 170, so 31% for the SNP.

    We can’t know what they measure Lab support in Scotland as, since they don’t publish that cross-break.

    However, we agree that internally unweighted cross breaks will have significant variability.

  12. JAMES E

    For those “likely to vote” you are actually overstating SNP support as measured by ComRes. That’s 35/154 or 23%.

    Interesting that ComRes recognise the potential conflict between which GE they are referring to when they ask people in Scotland.

    “Q.3 If there was a general election / UK General Election (for Scotland) tomorrow,”

    I wonder why they don’t do that in Wales?

  13. In common with most people (I think) – I assumed a growing economy for 18 months prior to the GE would lead to a tory victory……. But I do get a sense these days that the perception of enough people has turned back to the tories being the nasty party – and they will vote for anyone but them. Big problem for Dave.
    If he tries to be nice Dave of 2010 the right wing will destroy him – if he goes to the right (like he has been doing) Labour will benefit.
    Interseting stuff.

  14. @ CORKSCREW

    18 months of growth is no good for the Tories, unless it means that people have extra money in their pockets. The problem for the government is that they do not have much room for tax cuts. Bringing in a living wage or increased minimum wage level, might be popular with some voters, but not good for the Tories in regard to support from business owners.

  15. Corkscrew

    If you look at the prior 92-97 you will see that Major had good growth throughout this period

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10613201

    A growing economy is not the be all and end all – it is also perception etc. The Tories are playing their hand quite badly at the moment and it is being reflected in the polls. The steady decline in Coalition relation is also beginning to show and doesn’t help matters.

    I think a bad winter will not help the Government’s ratings either – A&E emergencies, travel chaos etc will not provide a good lead up to the 2014 elections and after then it is all downhill to the GE – implosion of the Coalition and the possible implosion of the LD awaits

  16. @R HUCKLE

    I guess what I’m saying is that, I suspect even growing incomes may not be enough fro the tories

  17. Gosh, my buses metaphor used yesterday was wide of the mark as two more arrive.
    Although many on here think the ‘Ed is cr*p’ issue is dead, the Opinium tables say he still is so thought, relatively to DC. Having said that, his disapproval score is actually better than that of DC (45 to 49), it’s just that his approval score is worse (23 to 34). I conclude from that picture that it’s not at all a dreadful scenario for EM by any means. Few can imagine him as PM, but then whenever have any of them been imaginable before attaining the seat? Probably for that reason, he is expected to do worse in the Debates. We shall see (I hope we will anyway). I suspect he will hold his own quite well. None of them DC, EM or NC, are stupid in front of the camera.

  18. @BCROMBIE

    I agree – I think it is largely perception.
    Also think the coalition have played their hand quite badly since 2010.
    Neither party performed particularly well in 2010 – but since they took government, they have failed to show the slightest shred of humility…which if they had done would have given some resonance to the “coming together in the national interest” line.

  19. When Blair used the “weak” insult at Major towards the end of his premiership I felt it was too nasty and personal …. but it was pushing at an open door.

    There were endless disputes within his own party and he did look like a very exasperated but beaten man.

    It does seem that the Tories tried to repeat this idea but very early and with just low opinion poll ratings to go on. The problem then is that if you turn out to be wrong you look rather silly, and therefore weaker yourself.

    It seems to me someone should perhaps have pointed out that Ed M seems quite strong-minded.

    I’ve no idea how the campaign will play but, like NickP think the election may well have been lost once the LDs imploded and the Tories didn’t benefit.

    By 2015 there will have been nearly eight years of angst as the background and a campaign based on “fairness” could make sense.

  20. Meanwhile on Borgen….

  21. Even with 18 months of recovery which votes will the Tories get in 2015 that they didn’t get in 2010?

  22. HOWARD

    Re the “Ed is ….” issue, I see that the Falkirk/Grangemouth/Unite/Ed story is running on Sky, and the Scotsman carried the story today as well.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/insight-ed-miliband-and-the-falkirk-scandal-1-3191702

    I’m not sure what the Scotsman intended with both the story and the “Ed is a Zombie” image, since the most likely recipient of any votes directed away from Labour are more likely to end up with the SNP and not the Tories.

  23. OldNat

    Indeed, I referred earlier to the TV debates and I don’t imagine the TV producers will be allowed to film the participants roughly 6 inches from their crutch upwards, just as they open their mouths to speak. This of course is the fate of many speech makers, depending on the partisanship of the publication involved.

  24. I wonder whether Major’s recent interventions haven’t shifted the polls a bit. Major will never be popular but (IMHO) he certainly isn’t unpopular and it’s possible that a small number of electorally significant voters listen when he speaks.

    He does seem to have that ‘everyman’ appeal that few in the current Tory party seem to possess.

  25. HOWARD

    If the TV Debates in 2015 take place.

    Why would Labour want to allow Clegg to take part, since he is a Coalition partner of the Tories. The justification last time for the selection of these 3 was that they were “the potential PMs”.

    Polling would suggest that Farage would be just as likely as Clegg to be the leader of a UK Government, and I can’t see the Tories accepting him being there!

    Would it be acceptable to anyone for just the leaders of the two biggest parties to debate on TV, given the proportion of the population who will vote for either party?

  26. @OldNat
    “If the latter, then it could just be differently unrepresentative samples collected by the pollsters – and they could actually all be correct.”

    I’ll have to disagree with you there.

  27. PHIL HAINES

    Fair enough. Though you may have a higher opinion than I do of the likely ability of pollsters to draw equally unrepresentative samples of the population, which they then have to weight. :-)

  28. The Green’s 7% showing is becoming less strange. While YouGov and Populus put them on 2% and 3% respectively, Opinium puts them at 4% and ComRes at 5%. So Populus and YouGov showings appear low- the full set of results is: YG 2%, Pop 3%, TNS 4%, Op 4%, CR 5%, MORI 7%. This arises in the context of both Opinium and ComRes putting Others up by 1%, with higher end Green scores. Does anyone know why there’s this contrast? Now that higher Green scores are appearing in several places, is it too early for it to be a trend?

  29. @JimJam (from previous thread)

    No deliberate attempt to misrepresent your view but I may have been guilty of a little tabloid journalism when using the term “seeing the light” about current Labour supporters and/or DKs voting Tory come May 2015. I understand your take on these things, and I think you understand mine and while we differ a little, I sense we’re not miles apart in our opinions about what is still a very unpredictable political climate.

    That said, I still think there is a danger, maybe born of an innate Labour defeatism, in overstating the electoral strength of the Conservatives. This isn’t the same as imagining that the next election is safely in the bag for Labour, because it clearly isn’t, but I think a lot of us are missing what might be the great untold story of British politics in the last 25 years. Something pretty drastic, and not at all good, has happened to the organisation and electoral strength of the Conservative Party since the early 90s. I don’t gloat about these current polls at all, and they’re not sensationally good for Labour in pure VI terms, but if I was a Tory supporter, they’d send a shudder down my spine. They’re slowly but surely moving from mysteriously disappointing to truly awful.

    @Colin and Turk

    I echo the comments of other posters wishing you both well. To Colin, in terms of his daughter’s wellbeing and recovery and to Turk in relation to what I hope proves to be a very happy new life in Texas. You’ve probably got to know me as a bit of a mickey-taker, and I’m easily prone to flippancy, but I like to think I’m devoid of malice. There’s nobody on here that I dislike and, come to think of it, apart from the odd politician, not many in life either!

  30. Interesting also how the higher end UKIP scores of 16% and 17% don’t appear to cause the Greens damage- they score an average (4%) and above average (5%) polling; based on the crude mean averages of the last 2 days’ polls. In fact, their lower scores of 2% and 3% co-incide with lower UKIP scores of around 11%ish!

  31. @WindsofChange

    Interesting also how the higher end UKIP scores of 16% and 17% don’t appear to cause the Greens damage- they score an average (4%) and above average (5%) polling; based on the crude mean averages of the last 2 days’ polls. In fact, their lower scores of 2% and 3% co-incide with lower UKIP scores of around 11%ish!

    I don’t find this surprising as a Green myself.

    UKIP are almost the antithesis of the Greens. Remember Question Time when Natalie Bennett was on with Nigel Farage? Natalie really got stuck into him (the only panellist who did I seem to remember).

  32. I wonder if Charles Kennedy was watching “Borgen”…

  33. @CatmanJeff
    I would have thought UKIP would have stolen a fair amount of the anti-establishment/alternative party vote from them.

  34. Anthony – I have entered pre-mod somehow??

  35. Old Nat and James E

    The Comres figure is 27% – the cross break tables are confusing to say the least.
    #
    However I read Opinium as somewhere in the high 30s for the SNP because you have not allowed for don’t knows , won’t says, don’t votes in either the raw or adjusted data.

    That would make 6 polls this week apart from YOUGOV with SNP cross breaks in the mid to high 30s and 1 agreeing with YouGov in the high 20s.

    I think the point still stands.

  36. JJ

    “Anthony – I have entered pre-mod somehow??”

    Better than pre-med.

  37. WINDSOFCHANGE / CATMANJEFF

    Far too early to tell, but it could be that some pollsters are picking up an increasing disenchantment with one or both of the two main GB parties better than others.

    How they weight that to produce their headline results may also be a contributory factor.

    An electoral system which does not reflect an unwillingness to be tied to the manipulations of politicians who are increasingly distrusted, may simply be no longer fit for purpose.

    England only experiences PR elections in the Euros, and that no doubt explains the radically different results from Westminster elections. I always find it interesting that commentators frequently dismiss Euro results because they don’t reflect Westminster voting – though both are equally good reflections of political opinion.

  38. @Colin – hope your daughter recovers well.

    On the polls; Some of us did say that a rising economy was probably better for Lab in broad terms, as they may not be seen as the best party for austerity.

    I think another issue for the Cons may well be the state of A&E and local services, juxtaposed with ‘good’ economic news.

    They’ve actually had a pretty easy run persuading people of the need to accept austerity, which is likely to get harder if the background is one of returning prosperity. By back loading cuts in certain areas, they have set themselves up for this situation.

    Local authorities are only now beginning to face down both barrels, with huge cuts to come in many authorities in 2014/15. How the public views these will be interesting to watch.

  39. L HAMILTON

    As I said, not for those likely to vote, and I supplied the figures for those.

    Agreed that tables can be difficult to interpret. It often takes ages to find the right one!

    I’m not really disagreeing with you, you know. My perception is that YouGov produces larger Labour leads in Scotland, but it really takes a series of poll results to ascertain whether that’s true or not.

    I’m not going to do that, because I don’t think a study of cross breaks is of any particular value in itself (Sorry, STATGEEK !)

    If there is a difference between pollsters (which wouldn’t be unusual) then the probable explanation will be methodological, and us polling geeks can worry those aspects to death! :-)

  40. @rogerh : exactly. I just don’t see where the increase in Tory vote since 2010 can come from. They seem to be gambling on economic recovery and reducing unemployment. But the employment has been top and bottom and the recovery is not reaching the squeezed middle.

  41. “Do you think that an electoral system which does not reflect an unwillingness to be tied to the manipulations of politicians who are increasingly distrusted, may simply be no longer fit for purpose?”

    Be interesting to see the “don’t know” response if that was posed as a polling question – as above.

    Probably need space for “Que???”

  42. @NickP,

    Freefall? I think that’s a bit extreme. Freefall would be if the same pollster showed repeatedly drops in their score poll-on-poll.

    What we’re seeing is confirmation across the whole range of pollsters that there has been a solid fall in Tory support of about 3-5%. If this time next week it’s fall another 2% then I’ll grant you your “freefall”.

    I maintain that the central cause is the success of the “cost of living” agenda, based on the energy price freeze. There is no effective counter, other than to actually see people’s living standards improve. That may or may not happen over the next 18 months. Even if it does, Labour will be working very hard to convince people it’s not really happening.

  43. “Interesting also how the higher end UKIP scores of 16% and 17% don’t appear to cause the Greens damage- they score an average (4%) and above average (5%) polling; based on the crude mean averages of the last 2 days’ polls. In fact, their lower scores of 2% and 3% co-incide with lower UKIP scores of around 11%ish!”

    With respect, why on earth would there be any correlation between UKIP and Green support? Their supporters have the least in common with each other.

  44. @Neil A

    I agree that the Tories are not in freefall.

    The combination of high energy prices and people’s cash not going as far is a tough hand to play well for the Government.

    On the positive side, have we all seen the story from San Fransico about Bat Kid.

    Really heart warming stuff/

  45. ANDY JS

    “With respect, why on earth would there be any correlation between UKIP and Green support?”

    None in reality, but there may well be a correlation in the support reported by different pollsters – which would be the case if some pollsters are finding a lot more “Others” (or highlighting them due to their methodology).

  46. Correction

    @Neil A

    I agree that the Tories are not in freefall.

    The combination of high energy prices and people’s cash not going as far is a tough hand to play well for the Government.

    On the positive side, have we all seen the story from San Francisco about Bat Kid.

    Really heart warming stuff.

  47. This kind of report in papers which people probably do read (as opposed to what Fleet Street would like to happen) might be influencing the polls.

    http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/latest-news/top-stories/soaring-hospital-admissions-for-malnutrition-branded-disgrace-1-6248394#.Uof6bhlMETU.twitter

  48. My explanation of the recent very puzzling results – “cognitive dissonance”.

    I.e. the Government is telling us that a swallow has very definitely been sighted, but for most there’s no sign of winter ending.

    The great danger of “over-selling” is that you lose the customer’s trust, and that’s something much harder to regain than to gain. This was rather dramatically demonstrated 1992-97. The economy was recovering, but the public didn’t trust the government enough to credit them with it.

  49. @ MICHAEL ELLIOTT

    The ‘new right’ deputy leader on Borgen looked a bit like David Davies

  50. @PostageIncluded

    I think the trust in the Government’s handling of the economy from 1992 to 1997 was more based on Black Wednesday, which totally destroyed their credibility.

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