There are four new voting intention polls from last night or today – almost like being in an election campaign!

Populus‘s twice weekly poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. While the changes are not significantly different from recent Populus polls, it is their highest Labour lead since August. Tabs are here.

The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor, carried out for the Standard, has figures of CON 32%(-3), LAB 38%(+3), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 8%(-2). Last month’s MORI poll showed the two main parties equal on 35%, something of an obvious outlier, so the movement here will largely be a reversion to the mean. Worth noting is that the poll has the Green party up at 7%, almost as high as UKIP and the Lib Dems. Interesting, but not a pattern that is showing up in other polls. Tabs are here.

Yesterday there was also a new TNS-BRMB poll, with topline figures of CON 30%(-4), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 12%(-1). A big increase in the Labour lead, but again it’s something of a reversion to the mean. The two point lead in TNS-BMRB’s previous poll was very unusual – prior to that they’d had the Labour lead at 9 points or more in every poll since January. Full tabs are here.

Finally this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. This means we’ve had Labour leads from YouGov of 7 points, 10 points, 8 points and 8 points this week, higher than recent averages. Full tabs are here.

Bringing it all together the Labour lead does appear to be creeping upwards again. While one shouldn’t get too excited by the big jumps in MORI and TNS (both are partially reversions to the mean after unusual polls last month), the gradual underlying trend does look as if Labour’s lead is moving back up to 7 or 8 points having narrowed earlier this year.


163 Responses to “New Populus, MORI, TNS & YouGov polls”

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  1. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    On a technical polling issue, wouldn’t the performance be “orally”, while the audience would receive it “aurally”?

  2. ON

    Yes, I imagine there will be a raging debate on this important issue.

    I do realise that all irish people – men and women – are called Paddy but, for the purposes of my “joke” the name Pat worked better, or so my writers felt.

    Have you nothing better to do than be pompous all the time by the way?

  3. Anyway, sod all that and never mind Colin – where is Amber for some PLEASANT banter?

  4. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    Wee dugs don’t really understand deadpan humour! Anyway, I’m just whiling away the time till ALEC tells another joke!

    I’m sure he has one up his sleeve about women drivers, and is just waiting for the ideal time to deliver it.

  5. “Wilful neglect of patients will be made a criminal offence under NHS reforms”
    h ttp://news.sky.com/story/1169403/patient-neglect-to-be-made-a-criminal-offence

    We are heading towards a point when health care workers will make a serious choice about whether to continue in the profession, doctors and nurses will have to have minimum standards on staffing levels otherwise it will end up being argued over in the courts or any new laws will be useless.

    The other concern is this is almost certainly going to cover home care workers, or will do if a home care worker is deemed to have neglected a person in their care.

    Many home care workers earn less than minimum wage because they don’t receive pay for travel time, this is going to be one hell of a responsibility on workers that are taken for granted and not paid for the responsibility they currently have let alone what this new law will give… it should mean pay changes to the scale of responsibility workers are being asked to assume.

    But here is a thought, a home care worker fails to turn up to attend and care and that person dies or suffers harm because of that, would that be wilful neglect?

    Or would it be the company who provide the care workers?

    If so how is that going to manage alongside ZHC which many home care workers are contracted, or how is it going to work if a nurse or doctor turns up for work but refuses to sign on for duty because staffing levels are insufficient; and if they do sign in for work they will be subjecting themselves to a serious chance of causing wilful neglect.

    Or will it be the hospital managers who will be charged with wilful neglect for failing to assure staffing levels…

    The IDEA is great but in practice I can see things like this happening or being fought over in court, the government has to set minimum staffing levels or prosecutions will be unjust or will simply fail, (my client was put into a catch 22 position and left to make a decision that meant someone was going to be neglected)

    I do hope they get it right, but I can see it will be become a mess and the true victims being the health workers.

  6. If so how is that going to manage alongside ZHC which many home care workers are contracted, or how is it going to work if a nurse or doctor turns up for work but refuses to sign on for duty because staffing levels are insufficient; and if they do sign in for work they will be subjecting themselves to a serious chance of causing wilful neglect.
    ——–
    Of course of they would not look after the patients in these circumstances they would be in breach of the NMC Code of Conduct , could face a disciplinary hearing with sanctions up to and including removal from the Register

    [Snip]

  7. CB11

    @”Is this what it’s come to now? Good grief.”

    I think you remember the genuine article well enough CB.

    best wishes

  8. @Jim (The Other One),

    I think you’re probably right. My wife is now an Officer-In-Charge (sort of like a “team supervisor” – the name is a misnomer) at an old people’s home. She fights a daily battle against a pincer movement of staff shortages and incompetent staff (but for minimum wage, who can be surprised). They aren’t on ZHCs, thankfully. She generally works 3-4 hours overtime every shift simply because there are necessary tasks that need to be done and there either aren’t enough staff to do them, or the staff that are on are too stupid to do them. She is constantly queried by her manager (who obviously is long gone at the time that she is due to clock off) and told she should “just go home” at the end of her shift.

    Having said that, I imagine the new law would be drafted in a way that made it applicable only in the twin eventualities of “something terrible happening” and “it being clearly someone’s personal fault”. The most likely consequence is that the government will waste an awful lot of parliamentary time producing something that will virtually never be used.

    There are existing laws that can be used in very clearcut and serious cases anyway. In general my reaction to any “we need a new law against it” announcement is “We already have a law against it, we just need to enforce it properly”.

  9. Neil
    Entirely Agree but being married to of the Most Clinical Nurses in the Country and an adjudicating panel member of the NMC

  10. Neil
    Entirely Agree but being married to one of the Most Highly Qualified Clinical Nurses in the Country and an adjudicating panel member of the NMC as well as a senior Union Rep for the RCN She is very concerned that situations could easily arise where Nurses,carers Doctors or Managers are faced with the Dilemma of providing a Service with inadequate resources, beyond their control, where there may be an incident which someone tries to blame on them with a criminal sanction ,

    Ur not provide the service at all and in the Case of Nurses and Doctors face a Professional Sanction including loss of Registration for breaching the Professional codes of conduct of the NMC or GMC.

    [Snip]

  11. My key board is having a life of it’s own today!

  12. @Oldnat – apologies if my gag upset you. I often tell jokes at my own expense, but wasn’t aware that it would be seen so negatively.

    In my defence, drinking is a matter of choice, and in terms at least of average consumption, we Scots drink more than many, and more than we we should. Commenting on a nationalities intelligence or the abilities of one sex or other behind the wheel of a car is not a comment on a characteristic of choice, even if the butt of that kind of joke did fit the stereotype, which they clearly don’t. So I decline to make jokes in that vein.

    Scots choose to drink too much, so they should be a little less sensitive if people choose to poke a little fun at that now and then.

  13. @Alec,

    This is definitely a conversation I am having no part of!!

  14. alec

    D’you know any more Scotch jokes? Keep um coming please.

    “Are yooze an thuh way tae the hosspingtal?”

    is a guddun.

  15. I quite like this One from the Edinburgh Fringe

    “I needed a password eight characters long so I picked Snow White and the Seven Dwarves.”

  16. We’ve missed you Colin.

    We need the ROC perspective.

  17. “We need the ROC perspective.”

    Can’t we just guess it?

  18. The Labour score has consistently been 39-42 in YouGov for a couple of weeks now. The lead doesn’t matter. If Labour gets that in a General Election the Tories can’t win. They need to be about 7% ahead. They have no chance of getting 49% with Labour on 42%!

  19. JIM (THE OTHER ONE)

    “Wilful neglect of patients will be made a criminal offence under NHS reforms”
    h ttp://news.sky.com/story/1169403/patient-neglect-to-be-made-a-criminal-offence
    ——————————————————————————

    When will see the neglect of the real economy be made a criminal offence? There have been no charges brought against those who rigged the LIBOR rate; laundered Mexican drug money; defrauded investors; miss old mortgages or insurance etc etc. When will those criminal activities of bankers/the financial sector be held to account?

    Personally, I’d like to see economists held to account as well. Nurses may harm individual patients with neglect but the impact of ill-conceived economic advice harms millions.

  20. ‘mis-sold’

  21. JIM JAM

    Thank you,

    But my enjoyment & enthusiasm was severely dented on my last serious outing , and , like Rich, I can’t be bothered just now.

    If only your contributions ( which I always read) were more representative of the UKPR ambience.

    regards.

  22. COLIN.
    I, like you, have found certain posts quite unpleasant.

  23. We’ve found some posts a bit unpleasant as well.

  24. I must have missed the unpleasant stuff as I don’t manage to read everything and often abstain from threads that start deteriorating. Hopefully those who like aggressive argument rather than polite disagreement will drift away if no-one bites.

    Big D – right about the Tories needing a big lead for an OM although pace PK may not need to be quite 7%.

    However any rise in con VI over 36/7% requires some Labour net switchers so their target (if they have one) would be 41/34 or some such; still a massive ask and unlikely but not 49/42.

  25. “I must have missed the unpleasant stuff ”

    OleNat keeps going on about “dug’s” bottoms.

  26. The new rule regarding jail terms for doctors,is just another example of the rich and powerfull telling us that they’re in total control of every aspect of our daily lives.In truth it’s just a smoke screen,so we don’t concentrate on what’s really happening.No doctor will get anywhere near prison.Keep changing the rules, so it looks like you’re go ahead and really successful.

  27. Borgen is returning tonight.

    Probably even better after a glass of Danish Gløgg.

  28. Of course re “unpleasant stuff” the report button seems a very effective way of allowing Anthony to decide. I’ve used it a bit myself and it works fine.

    If you don’t like his decisions then that’s a different problem.

    Personally I think he is both omnipotent and fair.

    [cough…]

  29. Although not contributing anymore because of business commitments and a impending move, I thought I’d have one last post, having read some of the recent comments, particularly hilarious amongst which have been the various reasons why some right of centre commentators have dropped out recently.

    It’s not because of a one or two point advancement in Labours lead have had ROC commentators leaving we are use to being behind..

    Sadly it’s because a small but vocal minority have indulge in partisan or witless nonsense in place of any constructive comment. and It’s that ganging up approach by a few on people with a serious but different point of view that have put some people off this sight, not the fact that there particular party is ahead or behind in the polls.

    There is a danger that this forum becomes just another self congratulating talking shop of people who share a common view, which would be a shame, as the great majority of commentators on here are at there best when putting an opposing or different view on a particular political or non political issue.

    Having said that I have enjoyed my time posting on this sight but after completing the refurbishments on our farm shops, my time in farming really is coming to an end and my wife and I will be returning to her homeland of Texas to enjoy a warmer climate and plenty of sea fishing in the new year, so best of luck to you all and I hope you continue to encourage people with different views to share your forum best of luck to you all.

  30. Alister

    Personally I prefer Match of the Day and A pint of Lager

  31. TURK-very best wishes to you both in your new life.

  32. ALEC

    Thanks

  33. turk

    “Sadly it’s because a small but vocal minority have indulge in partisan or witless nonsense in place of any constructive comment.”

    I expect you’re referring to Anthony telling people to “bugger off and post somewhere else” – but you need to remember its his site.

  34. @Turk

    Did you receive my e.mail?

  35. @Colin

    “TURK-very best wishes to you both in your new life.”

    I always thought Turk had a bit of a split personality.

  36. cross batty

    Please stop posting witless stuff – its upsetting.

  37. @MSmithsonPB: LAB extends lead in Opinium Observer poll to 9%
    LAB 37=
    COM 28 -3
    UKIP 16=
    LD 9 +2.

  38. ” partisan or witless nonsense ”

    “ganging up approach ”

    “another self congratulating talking shop ”

    To be serious, whilst acknowledging that the above are selective quotes, I don’t recognise those sort of descriptions at all and find them to be regrettable way to use a sort of “goodbye” be negative about other,, anonymous posters and Anthony’s extremely well supervised site,

    As for “wit”, this is entirely subjective: I don’t find a lot of very famous professional comedians at all witty but clearly a lot of people do.

    Perhaps we just need thicker skins at times?

  39. To RosieandDaisie…

    I showed some of your posts to my two cats, Muggles and Miggles, who said they just confirmed what they’d thought all along about dogs. I asked than if they’d care to make any response and they said, “What’s the point of keeping a human and miaowing yourself.”

    Just thought you’d like to know.

    I hope this doesn’t come under the definition of “witless nonsense”.

  40. Certainly seems a trend to a widening gap.

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see it close a bit with DC’s Sri Lanka stand.

    On the other hand its winter-drawers on so who knows – cold and dark nights usually depress people.

  41. “I hope this doesn’t come under the definition of “witless nonsense”.

    Norbold: WN is, commonly, stuff that other people say, so I expect it does.

    My girls like cats actually – they say they’re jolly good for chasing.

  42. By the way, R&D, Muggles and Miggles did say they agreed with you regarding your observations on Turk’s final post.

    They also added that if you are ever round their way, they wouldn’t mind a little chase – it’s good exercise for them….

  43. @Couper2802

    “@MSmithsonPB: LAB extends lead in Opinium Observer poll to 9%
    LAB 37=
    COM 28 -3
    UKIP 16=
    LD 9 +2.”

    Even though, after a rocky summer, Labour have undoubtedly stabilised or slightly increased their VI, the widening leads have come about primarily as a result of a marked decline in Tory support. This Opinium poll supports the evidence of other pollsters and it’s really quite interesting that this development has coincided with positive economic news that you would have thought, in normal times, might have helped the governing parties.

    As I’ve said before, I think the fact that the Tories have more or less flat-lined since March 2012, some 20 months ago now, suggests that there is something structurally, maybe even chronically, weak about their current position. It could be, as Jim Jam often predicts, that the electorate will inevitably see the light and surge back to the Tories at the 11th hour, thereby mocking all our doomsday predictions.

    This is feasible, I admit, but all I would say about that is that it won’t be long before we hear the sound of distant ballot boxes and the clock is ticking away, In my view, the current political weather is pretty benign and I find it intriguing and surprising that support for the Tories seems to softening at I time when I’d expect it to be slowly drifting back to them.

    @Rosieand Daisie

    “Please stop posting witless stuff – its upsetting.”

    Fair comment. I’ll keep it serious from now on.

  44. norbold

    Good on yer moggies.

    Actually they sound a bit hard for my little girls – the chase could go the wong way so I shall just continue to let them wuff out the window.

  45. Three things – Labour lead increasing leading to disenchantment from the right wing posters on this site and lack of posts.

    Secondly, did I miss a handbags session where people fell out……I always miss the good stuff me.

    Thirdly – I don’t know how much the Conservatives are paying Crosby and Messena, however, in the last few weeks the have lost the grid and are flailing about aimlessly with random announcements. Also some muttering from within Tory HQ about the way they are running the campaign. It will only get worse if the polls stay static or keep going the way they are.

    The Conservatives have one big problem amongst many, which is being found in both party focus groups, the majority of people are not feeling better off despite the up tick in the economy. One section don’t believe there is an up tick as they cannot see it and the other section do believe it but believe it is being manufactured for only a small section of society, These point of views are starting to stick……..and these two groups are massive politically.

    Maybe they need another election guru on the payroll ;-)

  46. CB – I trust your misrepresentation of me is not on purpose.

    What I say is that the UKIP will fall back to circa 5% and that the split will be worth 3-4% for the cons over Lab. Plus the Governing parties tend to have a higher DK/WV ratio of their voters at the previous GE who tend to return in the end(Lab and Con) which is worth perhaps 2% to the Tories.

    Which is why a few weeks ago when the lead was around 5% I stated that imo there was little between the big 2 in underlying support. It is clear now to me that even with the adjustments for ephemera Labour has more support higher underlying support than the cons.

    As you identify yourself Labour has increased little (1-2%) but the Labour optimist in me would say this is more sustainable than even the 42/3 achieved at times last year which included more protest VI.

    What I then go on the postulate is that the cons, therefore, need a 3% or so net swing off Labour to be the largest party.

    Actually, I think it is unlikely that they will achieve this but I would not be shocked if they got the most votes with seats being close. (38/37/13/5/7 -last 2 UKIP and others).

    Politically of course maximising the UKIP returnees makes taking Lab and LD votes harder for the Tories.

  47. What I say is that the UKIP will fall back to circa 5% and that the split will be worth 3-4% for the cons over Lab. Plus the Governing parties tend to have a higher DK/WV ratio of their voters at the previous GE who tend to return in the end(Lab and Con) which is worth perhaps 2% to the Tories.

    Which is why a few weeks ago when the lead was around 5% I stated that imo there was little between the big 2 in underlying support. It is clear now to me that even with the adjustments for ephemera Labour has currently higher underlying support than the cons.

    As you identify yourself Labour has increased little (1-2%) but the Labour optimist in me would say this is more sustainable than even the 42/3 achieved at times last year which included more protest VI.

    What I then go on the postulate is that the cons, therefore, need a 3% or so net swing off Labour to be the largest party.

    Actually, I think it is unlikely that they will achieve this but I would not be shocked if they got the most votes with seats being close. (38/37/13/5/7 -last 2 UKIP and others).

    Politically of course maximising the UKIP returnees makes taking Lab and LD votes harder for the Tories.

  48. CB – got a reply in auto-mod must have used a trigger word.

  49. @ Steve
    MOTD – not tonight tho’.

    Turk
    Once again, good luck to you and your family in USA.

    Did anyone else catch the news item that Nigel Farage is to have an operation on his back on Tuesday. This is as a result of injuries suffered during a plane crash in 2010.

  50. My tuppence worth.

    The “Ed is crap” lot and the “Ed is great” lot are as bad as each other.

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