There are four new voting intention polls from last night or today – almost like being in an election campaign!

Populus‘s twice weekly poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 40%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. While the changes are not significantly different from recent Populus polls, it is their highest Labour lead since August. Tabs are here.

The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor, carried out for the Standard, has figures of CON 32%(-3), LAB 38%(+3), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 8%(-2). Last month’s MORI poll showed the two main parties equal on 35%, something of an obvious outlier, so the movement here will largely be a reversion to the mean. Worth noting is that the poll has the Green party up at 7%, almost as high as UKIP and the Lib Dems. Interesting, but not a pattern that is showing up in other polls. Tabs are here.

Yesterday there was also a new TNS-BRMB poll, with topline figures of CON 30%(-4), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 12%(-1). A big increase in the Labour lead, but again it’s something of a reversion to the mean. The two point lead in TNS-BMRB’s previous poll was very unusual – prior to that they’d had the Labour lead at 9 points or more in every poll since January. Full tabs are here.

Finally this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 40%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%. This means we’ve had Labour leads from YouGov of 7 points, 10 points, 8 points and 8 points this week, higher than recent averages. Full tabs are here.

Bringing it all together the Labour lead does appear to be creeping upwards again. While one shouldn’t get too excited by the big jumps in MORI and TNS (both are partially reversions to the mean after unusual polls last month), the gradual underlying trend does look as if Labour’s lead is moving back up to 7 or 8 points having narrowed earlier this year.


163 Responses to “New Populus, MORI, TNS & YouGov polls”

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  1. Well,if we must be dogs or cats,I am a silver Somali,either Mungo,Hunca Munca,or Pushkin.The first two ,a purrfect gentleman and Hunca an exquisite lady are
    Sadly deceased ,but Pushkin a sixteen year old warrior lives on.Sorry of this is
    Witless but those dogs cannot have it all their own way!

  2. @Colin – very pleased to see you back again. I had posted a couple of times as I had in mind that you had mentioned some domestic difficulties a while back, and was worried that you were absent due to such problems. I’m not happy that your enthusiasm for posting here has apparently been dented by some unpleasantness, but I am happy that it’s nothing more serious than that.

    @Turk – best of luck in Texas. I believe they still have the internet over there too, so if you get the chance, a Big Texan perspective on UKPR threads would still be of great interest.

    I read what you say about the reasons why you haven’t been posting recently, but like others, I must have missed the unpleasant stuff @Colin referred to.

    I’ve been on this site long enough to have seen a number of political cycles come and go, and to be perfectly honest, it’s always the same pattern.

    When one side is up, the composition of posters tends to reflect that world view. Those in the opposing camp are firstly slightly deflated by the polls themselves, and care a little less about commenting on ‘bad’ news, while also feeling somewhat marginalised, as they seem to be standing alone against a rising tide of the other lot.

    On occasions the minority can feel bullied, but to be honest, I can’t recall seeing any actual bullying on here – it’s more down to weight of numbers, rather than actual behaviour. This isn’t to say that people don’t feel sensitive, but it’s often more imagined than actual.

    Recently another poster commented on the long period through 2008 – 2009 or so, when red posters here were virtually absent. They were commenting on how I regularly received abuse etc, but I did have to correct him.

    As one of the few contrary posters still active at that time, I never felt abused or bullied, and I was quite happy to keep posting and offering an alternative view. Partly as a result of this, I really don’t understand people using this as an excuse not to post – I just don’t see the abuse and unpleasantness.

    It’s pretty clear that if there are a few good polls for the blues, there will be a few extra blue posts appearing, and vice versa. I don’t think that’s witless, or ganging up on people – just the way things go. We’ve all been there at one time or another.

  3. Statgeek – The “Ed is crap” line has been dropped from the Tory list. Only about 18 months too late as anyone can see it was only working for people who thought Ed was crap anyway, which is Tory voters. It did nothing for UKIP voters who’s main beef is with Cameron. They have not learned their lesson though, they are going with the Falkirk line for all it’s worth and it is not being mentioned one iota on all party focus groups. The Conservative campaign seems to be leaderless despite so any campaign experts supposedly working for them. This could be the most expensive flop in UK political history.

  4. JIM JAM

    “Plus the Governing parties tend to have a higher DK/WV ratio of their voters at the previous GE who tend to return in the end”

    That seems intuitively likely, and Coalition parties certainly have a higher % of DK/WNV ex 2010 supporters than Lab.

    Has that always been the case, or are there exceptions to the rule?

  5. @RR

    See my previous post. :))

  6. OLD NAT, STATGEEK

    continuing the debate about Scottish cross samples and the perceived difference between YouGov and everybody else.

    Ratherly curiously OPINIUM don’t give them by geography despite the fact that they have a large sample size.

    However, assuming the no-party DK ration is the same for Scotland as for the rest of country, this latest poll would put the SNP somewhere in the high 30s – again in contrast to YouGov.

  7. @LordAshcroft: ComRes Poll CON 29% LAB 35% LDEM 10% UKIP 17%

  8. L HAMILTON

    YouGov doesn’t have a consistent pattern though. In a small sub-sample wide variations are not unexpected. From time to time, YG shows a similar neck & neck situation between SNP & Lab – though most of the time they show a very significant Lab lead.

    My suspicion is that there is a greater probability of finding Lab rather than SNP supporters in the YG panel because of other demographic characteristics that they have which complete the demographic weighting to GB norms that is needed.

    It only matters if you want to use Scottish samples in GB polls as evidence for what is happening politically in Scotland – which no one should be doing! :-)

  9. ON – was certainly the case before the last GE when ICM who adjust most for the DK/WV returnee phenomenon were often the only solace for Lab posters.

    As the GE approaches the DK/WV count falls and ICMs adjustment becomes less significant.

    Alex – was me and I whilst you may not have felt bullied I recall one occasion when you thanked me for coming to your support as you felt you were getting hammered or battered or something along those lines.

    Was when you question the wisdom of GO overplaying the austerity on its way line – and you were right he had to soften it for the GE of course firming again immediately after.

  10. ALEC

    Thanks-yes we have been living at our daughters for two weeks-one of Kent’s more aggressive motorists drove into her wheelchair & broke her leg in two places.

    So have been busy-but that’s not the reason for less posting.

    Anyway-enough already.

  11. “David Cameron to revive John Major’s ‘scare’ strategy over high taxes and spending from successful 1992 campaign”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/16/tory-campaign-kinnock-election

  12. These latest polls will set alarm bells ringing for the Tories.

    They really wanted to be in a better place than this having played several of their best cards.

  13. colin

    “we have been living at our daughters for two weeks-one of Kent’s more aggressive motorists drove into her wheelchair & broke her leg in two places.”

    Hi Colin, really very sorry indeed to hear that and I hope the recovery is speedy.

    Best regards,

    Paul.

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