This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 10%. This is the first time YouGov have shown Labour’s lead in double-digits since the beginning of October. Normal caveats apply of course – it’s probably just the top end of the normal margin of error – but the underlying average lead in YouGov’s polls does seem to have crept upwards. In mid-October it was around 5 or 6 points, now it’s around 7 points. Full tabs are here.

YouGov have also reasked their question on the under-occupany charge/bedroom tax, which now shows 42% of people support the policy, 45% are opposed (the equivalent figures in September were 40% support, 48% opposed). Tabs are here.

214 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 10”

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  1. RH – my sister is a Labour supporting NUT activist and more left wing than me in many ways but lives in Kendal and will vote for Tim Farron as she did in 2010 (in 2005 local Lab politicians privately supported the decapitation of Tim Collins)

    She says she could not vote for Clegg, Laws etc but truth is she does not have to make that choice.

    Lab leaners who voted for VC perhaps have the hardest choice.

  2. Prospects for LDs perhaps depend somewhat on how far Labour appear to be ahead. The more likely it seems Labour may win, then it makes it easier for tactical voters to forego the tactical LD vote.

  3. Or to put it another way, the further Lab are ahead, the less need to hold the nose and vote LD tactically.

  4. @MSmithsonPB: New poll from TNS-BMRB sees LAB extend lead to 8%
    CON 30% (-4)
    LAB 38% (+2)
    LD 8% (-1)
    UKIP 12% (-1)
    OTHER 11% (+2)

  5. @ Richard and the poll

    World’s dumbest Tory? Identifies as a Conservative voter who would never consider voting Conservative.

    Recovery/feelgood factor/living standards
    I believe the policy is to create a house price boom via ‘Help to Inflate’ which will replicate the noughties where homeowners felt wealthy because their theoretical equity increased apace. Backed up by assured low interest rates (perhaps not so assured now – hence Osborne talking down the recovery)

    Round where I live there has never been much sense of recession because when house prices were flaky for a couple of years disposable income rocketed because interest rates came down and now we’re in a sweet spot with low interest rates and house prices rocketing.

  6. Labour are doing very well at the moment specifically because their “cost of living” campaign and the heavily scripted “recovery for the few not the many” message is taking root very effectively.

    The energy freeze pledge was definitely the masterstroke that opened the door to this, but it has been followed up with some fairly rhythmic drum-beating on a range of topics.

    Personally (you won’t be suprised to hear me say) I think it’s largely a load of guff. I don’t think there’s anything particularly different about this recovery than previous ones. The idea that “the people” won’t feel the benefit of recovery is patent nonsense. If houses are being built, “people” in construction will feel the benefit. If money is being spent, “people” in goods and services will feel the benefit. If unemployment falls, average household incomes will rise (even if wage increases are zero or negative) as those employed workers bring home the bacon.

    Yes, public servants (like me) will continue to feel the pinch. I’m not exactly ecstatic about that, having had my personal income cut by perhaps 15% with more to come. But if I look at my overall situation? My mortage is so cheap its practically free. My wife has now found a full time job and her income has risen by more than mine has fallen. My stepdaughter is picking up enough shifts to be self-sufficient and even pay me a small amount of rent. I am not exactly starving.

    I think that Labour have succeeded very well in getting the meme established that the recovery has had and will have no impact on “normal” people’s lives. The media has bought into it, and it is repeated here as if it was scientific fact (the sort of thing that makes it unappealing for people like me to read) but that doesn’t mean it’s actually true. It’s just a political slogan, dreamt up because the last one (austerity has killed the recovery) has lost its power.

    Labour are on the advance, and the chances of a big Labour majority in 2015 have certainly increased substantially since the Summer. The only real hope for the Tories is that the recovery is as good as or better than Carney is projecting, and the benefits of it to ordinary people become so obvious that the New Orthodoxy that it is somehow uniquely a “recovery for the rich” begins to look ridiculous.

    If Labour go into 2015 campaigning on “vote for us if you haven’t benefited from the recovery” there is just a chance that if people look at their situation and respond “but I have”, the result could defeat expectations.

  7. New thread.

  8. @ Neil A

    Wouldn’t the government be pleased, were we all like you? A household with one full-time earner has been squeezed to the point where it is has had to become (almost) a 3 earner household to be a little bit better off. If only every ordinary household was happy to work 2 or 3 times as much for roughly the same disposable income as before, all would look jolly good for the Coalition parties being re-elected in 2015.

  9. @ Neil A

    “I think that Labour have succeeded very well in getting the meme established that the recovery has had and will have no impact on “normal” people’s lives.”

    It’s not just Labour. Have a listen to Gillian Tett and David Blanchflower on last night’s Newsnight (5:15 in):

  10. Labour’s lead in the opinion polls is an illusion and the Tories have pushed through some very controversial policies. Ed Miliband should be further ahead in the polls than these might suggest and I still think that come the general election day that the Tories will steal the advantage.
    Why do I think this? The Tories have yet to launch an all-out assault on Labour and will cherry-pick their policies that got popular support. During 2014, Miliband will struggle to maintain a lead over the Tories if as predicted the economy picks up pace. Cameron is hoping that the feel-good factor will come in time for the May 2015 election and the undecided voters will stick with the devil the know allowing the Tories in for another term either on their own or another coalition with the Lib Dems.
    Labour are not ready to be back in government and need a more flamboyant leader that actually connects with the undecided voters in the middle classes. Miliband is more of a liability for Labour than an asset.

  11. Blimey. I’ve always thought @richard and @rich we’re the same person. I could never quite understand where he was coming from.

  12. @SIne Nomine

    ” the Polls are clearly all over the place at the moment with no real explanation.”

    15 diffferent polls so far in November have given Labour leads in the range of 5-10%, with the average right in the middle of that . Far from being ‘all over the place’, the polls have been remarkaby consistent.

  13. @ Neil A [Belated]

    I agree that the v. important feel-good factor of [cheap] mortgages is much underestimated on this site, possibly because many posters, including myself, don’t have one. Nevertheless, Yougov polls show that Labour’s lead is consistently highest in the Mortgage generations, i.e., those aged 25-60.

    In turn, I think you are cavalier about the plights of renters, given fast-rising rents, & savers, receiving negative real interest payments on their savings; the latter are financing your cheap mortgage as wealth is transferred from savers to debtors. .

    As for most people reporting in polls that that they don’t recognise a recovery.
    Well, GDP is an aggregate measure, & real wages a per capita one. In the last few years the number of employed persons has risen faster than GDP: the minimal economic growth is spread v. thinly.

  14. I can’t see how either the Lib Dems or the Tories can attract more voters than they did for the last general election.

    Of the 4 main parties, Lib Dem voters have the lowest average wage. On average, Lib Dem voters could be the hardest hit by the huge rises in utility and food prices, bedroom tax, childcare cost rises, tuition fees etc. I can only see them being in an even worse position by the time of the next general election.

    For the Tories, the average age of their voters is very nearly 70. A lot won’t be happy with the very low returns on their savings and pensions, NHS A&E problems (a third of all A&E admissions are over 75 years old) etc.

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