ComRes’s monthly poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 28%(-5), LAB 36%(-1), LD 11%(nc), UKIP 12%(+1), Others 13%(+5). A significant drop for the Conservatives, and a significant increase for minor parties. The eight point lead for Labour is the largest ComRes have shown in their telephone polls since March. Full tabs are here.

I’ll make the usual caveats about big movements in polls – they could be the sign of something, or could just random sample variation (the big increase in “others” looks particularly odd, so do remember Twyman’s Law – if something looks unusual or interesting in a poll, it’s probably wrong). At the end of last week I did say that it looked as though the Labour lead in YouGov’s daily polling could be creeping upwards, perhaps on the back of energy prices being all over the news. On the other hand, the Survation poll at the weekend and the Populus poll this morning don’t show any sign of a widening lead. At the risk of being ever so dull and predictable, wait and see what the continuing trend shows.

Meanwhile looking at the rest of the poll ComRes found the same widespread support for Ed Miliband’s promise to freeze energy prices that we’ve seen elsewhere – 80% support the policy, 17% oppose it. However only 41% of people actually think Miliband would deliver on the promise if Labour formed a government, 52% think he will not.

As I mentioned above, earlier on today we also had the twice-weekly Populus poll. Today’s figures were CON 33% (-1), LAB 38%(-1), LDEM 12%(+1), UKIP 9%(-1), Others 7%(-1). Full tabs here


181 Responses to “ComRes/Indy – CON 28, LAB 36, LD 11, UKIP 12”

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  1. RosieandDaisie – Didn’t you know Jesus was the first socialist?

  2. No googling. Who was the person who said the statement above?

  3. Was it Governor Rick Perry of Texas?

  4. Billy Connelly? ;-)

  5. @Michael Elliott – Miles out!

  6. Amber – Even further than Mr Elliott.

  7. Anyone remember that Ipsos Mori poll two weeks ago that showed a tie? We might as well look at bird entrails.

    (Or watch the tracking polls and the polling average, if we want real information.)

  8. A poll to forget.

    Oh, alright then, Anthony Wedgwood Benn.

  9. Howard – Getting closer….err….you could say.

  10. Not sure the Tories are getting their PR right at the moment. They should be gaining some good polling as a result of the economy bouncing back. But instead I think they have actually slid back a little. I can only put this down to Ed Milibands challenge about energy prices and cost of living. So far the Tories have not been able to respond to this.

  11. Was it Mary? You know parents…

  12. John Lennon?

  13. @Red Rag

    I’m not sure, but I’m pretty sure Donald Rumsfeld said he was the “ineffable ineffable”. Or was it the “effable ineffable”…?

  14. Step forward Mikhail Gorbachev “Jesus was the first socialist, the first to seek a better life for mankind.”

    Though we are yet to find out if he ever stood on a picket line in the pouring down rain ;-)

  15. So, in a week when David Cameron seemed to blame green taxes for raising UK energy prices, the Greens get their highest ever score in a national telephone poll.
    Does that seem counterintuitive to anybody else?

    Actually, why am I even trying to make sense of this? It’s a ComRes so I’ll just move on.

  16. 1% for the Lib Dems in Yorkshire and Humberside……wonder if we get to a stage in one of the polls where there will be an area on the mainland UK that ends up with 0% for the Lib Dems?

  17. @REDRAG
    I was just thinking Denis Healey. I got the eyebrows right anyway…

  18. Seems a little harsh on Hammurabi. And Hillel, for that matter.

  19. @ Red Rag

    Whoever said it – he was wrong. Especially with a Latin American twist. Actually it wasn’t him… But it was from Latin America. Just the wrong country. It starts with S. Yet the statement is still wrong.

  20. Darn it…my next guess was Chairman Mao. You can imagine what I’m like at darts…

  21. If 41% think Labour will carry out their commitment if elected one needs to take into account that that is higher than their current VI.

    You can also assume that all non Lab voters just say no as a default mechanism, despite the fact it seems fairly obvious that he would have to and presumably wants to.

    Ergo its pretty good really.

  22. Leaving aside the question of whether you have to be a socialist to seek a better life for mankind..

    Surely Cyrus the Great has a prior claim to Christ in the “decent geezers of history” stakes?

  23. @ Red Rag,

    wonder if we get to a stage in one of the polls where there will be an area on the mainland UK that ends up with 0% for the Lib Dems?

    Inb4 Chris Lane: “Seems high!”

  24. I always thought Jesus was the first hippy, with people pretending to eat loads of fish etc and saying

    “Wow man,that’s really heavy stuff. How d’you do that man?”

    As in the Young Ones/

  25. Laszlo – Who was wrong? Gorbachev for thinking he was a socialist. Jesus for making Gorbachev think he was a socialist. Jesus for letting people misinterpret his actions for socialism…..or the 1% of voters in Yorkshire and Humberside for saying they would vote Lib Dem?

  26. I suppose it all depends what you mean by socialism. If you think it’s something similar to communism, then He wasn’t. e.g. “Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s”.

    If you think socialism just means generally being nice to people, then He obviously was, but so are all the political parties (in this country anyway).

  27. AW

    I know it’s a pain, but is there any chance that you can dig my post that is in auto mod out, it’s on the last thread, btw I promise not to continue the last thread to here

  28. Jesus wasn’t the first socialist, neither was Buddha, I’m pretty sure that honor(or disgrace) should go to Lao Tzu

  29. Rosie and Daisie – It’s amazing that an off the cuff remark about the Conservative election strategists hoping it would be a mild winter would lead to Jesus, Billy Connolly, Ceaser, the Young Ones, Cyrus the Great,Tony Benn, Chairman Mao, Donald Rumsfeld, John Lennon, the Virgin Mary, Rick Perry ,Dennis Healey and Mikhail Gorbachev.

    But even more amazing…….1% of voters in Yorkshire and Humberside admit publicly they will vote Lib Dem ;-)

  30. @the dogs

    Pythagoras was more like the first hippie than Yashua bar Yussef. Think about; believed in reincarnation, vegetarian, lived in a commune, sat around all day saying “Wow! Triangles are like really cool”…. etc.

  31. O/T I always love polls like this. Has anyone seen who the 3% jump in the other set of others went to yet. They have gone from 1% to 4%.

  32. When the word “migrants” is so often used dismissively it is really heartbreaking to read the news of so many dying trying to cross the Sahara in search of a better life for themselves and theit young children.

    We live in a mad world.

    I was watching some of the Natural World programmes recently and, as always, musing on the fact that one group of humans in killing and maiming animals and another, wonderful, group is doing all it can to help them survive and to learn about them so we can support their continued existence.

    I wonder if, as a species, we will ever learn what really matters.

  33. I can see me getting a yellow card here from Anthony for derailing the thread, when we should be talking about the poll :-)

  34. Ok, back to the poll. The leap in the green vote is obviously because of the bit of weather they’ve had in London and people blaming it on the tories.

    By the way:
    h
    ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_windstorms

    shows that Scotland has had quite a few of these sort of storms in the last few years, but I don’t remember such a fuss being made of it.

  35. Good to see the Tory boost from all the good economic news so many were predicting.

    (har har har)

  36. I know some may think I’m batty about our little girls but I think the pleasure of sharing your life with animals really is something to be treasured and, as its best, sets humans apart from all other species.

    Anyone else watched the programmes on walruses and orang-utans? Heartwarming and sad at the same time.

    Paul.

  37. @ Red Rag

    The Easter Sermon by a murdered bishop predated G.

    But for being a socialist you need capitalism…

  38. “But even more amazing…….” :D

  39. “Scotland has had quite a few of these sort of storms in the last few years, but I don’t remember such a fuss being made of it.”

    Quite right too: serves ’em right for living so far North.

  40. R&D
    It’s all those BBC southern weaklings. We have weather in the rest of the country as well, it just gets ignored.

  41. @ Rosieanddaisie

    Yes. A migrant stork whose travels have been observed was shot and became food for a hungry Egyptian peasant and his family. The well fed scientists couldn’t really understand it.

  42. I assume the many hired Conservative elections strategists will be scratching their noggins tonight wondering what more they can do to move the Conservative percentage northwards. If Yougov starts to sow the Conservative percentage slip by a point or two over the next few weeks it will be back to the drawing board for them. Meanwhile Labour just let the energy Big Six do their work for them.

    The remainder of the Big Six will put their prices up by the end of November. The issue wont go away though. Then we have the winter. Then the first of them them makes public how much profit they have made in the last year and the rest follow. In politics it’s known as having more legs than a centipede conga.

  43. @RiNz
    Nah. Lao Tzu was an anarchist. The Tao Te Ching is about just letting things ride and seeing how it turns out.

    “The sage is ruthless and treats the people like straw dogs” doesn’t sound like a socialist aphorism to me. Nor does “Do that which consists in taking no action”, nor “Keep their bellies full and their minds empty”.

  44. @ Pete B

    “Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s”.
    ——————
    I doubt He ever said that; The Roman Times probably misquoted Him.

  45. nickp

    “Good to see the Tory boost from all the good economic news so many were predicting.

    (har har har)”

    That is partisan in extremis and it is FAR too early to be crowing like that.

    You should wait till May 2015, then, IF they win the GE, you could perhaps have a small crow whilst discussing the final percentages in detail.

    I’m off to Kipsville, Tennessee ahora.

  46. @Lazslo,

    I suppose the deeper question is how Egypt, bread basket of the ancient and medieval worlds, came to have peasants so hungry they needed to eat storks.

  47. amber

    “@ Pete B

    “Render unto Caesar that which is Caesar’s”.
    ——————
    I doubt He ever said that; The Roman Times probably misquoted Him.”

    Yes, he probably said “Caesar can sod off, greedy bastard.” and they just used a bit of artistic license pour encourager les autres.

  48. @Amber (previous thread)
    “@ RAF
    You mentioned your birthday was a few days after mine. Is it today? If it is: Happy Birthday – & I hope you are having a good one. :-)”

    Yes, thank you :)

    Re: Comres
    Should we really pay much attention to a Comres phone poll? It would be nice, though, if smaller parties got a larger slice of the cake at the next GE.

  49. @ Neil A

    Yes, or the whole of Africa (I think Carthage was the main wheat exporter – certainly after the Punic wars. But I could be wrong.).

  50. Lazslo

    I am aware of the legitimate need to live and I am sure you realise I meant the killing and maiming of animals for no good reason at all.

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