YouGov’s weekly results for the Sunday Times are out here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%.

The poll started with an interesting question on the economy – directly addressing the queries you sometimes see on whether the GDP figures are actually reflected in ordinary’s people’s experience. 34% of people think the economy is now growing again across Britain as a whole, 41% do not. Asked about their own local area though, 22% think the economy is growing, 55% do not – people in London and the south are more likely to see the economy as growing, the north and Scotland less so. (Note more than half of the fieldwork would have been completed before the new GDP figures came out, so they won’t yet reflect that). You can look at this a pessimistic or optimistic way (or vice-versa, depending on one’s preferred outcome to the election) – one that the government isn’t benefiting from economic growth because many people aren’t feeling it in their own areas, the other that given many people don’t think the economy is growing yet, there’s plenty more potential upside for the government if/when they do.

Most of the poll deal with questions about energy prices. On the cost of living Labour have a lead, but only a tiny one – 26% trust Labour more, 24% the Conservatives. Solid majorities support all the energy price proposals made over the last few days, 72% support Miliband’s price freeze, 73% Major’s windfall tax, 64% Cameron’s reduction in green taxes. Asked to choose just ONE of them though the price freeze is the most popular, picked by 39% to the green tax reduction’s 28% and the windfall tax on 23%.

Looking more specifically at green taxes, only 15% of people support the continuation of the green levy on energy bills. 39% would rather the spending was funded directly from generation taxation, 34% would rather the money was not spent at all. In a forced choice question 52% would rather the government acted to cut bills, even if it mean less action was taken to cut CO2 emissions and protect the environment.

Looking to future energy needs the parties are exactly matched, 22% would trust the Tories more, 22% Labour more. On the principle of the new nuclear power station 49% support the deal, 30% are opposed. There are more concerns about the details – 55% think it’s unacceptable for French and Chinese companies to be involved, 49% think it is unacceptable for the government to promise to pay a minimum price for the electricity generated.

There were also a couple of questions on drug legalisation. 47% of people would support the decriminalisation (25%) or full legalisation (22%) or “soft” drugs like cannabis, 45% would prefer their sale and possession to remain a criminal offence. There is far less support for softening restrictions on harder drugs, 71% think that drugs like heroin and crack should remain illegal.

Looking at the rest of the Sunday papers, there is also a Survation poll” in the Sunday Times which has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 17%, and a Panelbase poll in the Herald (but commissioned by Wings over Scotland) which has referendum voting intentions of YES 35%, NO 43%, Undecided 20%. This is broadly typical of Panelbase – with the exception of a single poll in Jan 2013 and the SNP commissioned poll with leading questions, they’ve been consistently showing a lead of between 8-10 points since summer 2012.


271 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. @Trot

    It’s bloomin’ typical of the vapid MSM to hardly mention the luxuries of our feral overlord Mr Radcliffe. After all, captains of industry outnumber union bosses 19 to 1 on the so-called ‘lefty’ BBC.

  2. RAF
    HB to you. The 0732 was 17 late into Pad if that answers your query. Don’t ask me how I know all this.

  3. Rt

    Salmond has attracted near universal support for his handling of the crisis while Labour is moving ever deeper into a mire of their own making.

    Everyone on this site knows that there were special circumstances in dunfermline, your last post was a cheap shot

    I’m sure that next year the workers will thank AS for their Lower wages, lower pensions,

  4. @Howard

    Thank you.

    That’s pretty good going. A few years ago I took the Paddington train to the South West (Penzance). It took over 5 hours and was on time!

    I got the first train from Bromley South to London en route to work this morning. It left at 9.20am, and I arrived at my.desk at 11am.

    We really need to find a better way of managing these situations. Still, everyone took the delay with good grace.

  5. @ Peter Bell

    “Not an expert on the subject but I understand that East Coast is making a profit since it was taken back into government hands.”

    Nationalised East Coast Line: Won 13 industry awards since April 2012, including that of being Britain’s top employer. No revenue support but there has been a 4.2% increase in ticket sales year-on-year, £208.7m returned to the taxpayer during the year in premium and dividend payments, and a record level of customer satisfaction.

    Private West Coast Line: Has received £179.6m in revenue support from the government since 2009 and a £1.2bn network grant.

    It’s obvious. Let’s privatise the East Coast Line.

  6. RAF
    That was of course the 0704 from Henley but I assumed AW caches it from Maidenhead.

  7. or catches it even, rather than saves it for another day.

  8. @Howard

    I thought AW still lived in Dartford?

  9. @trot57

    The first thing I said was big business trampling on the workers again. What I mean was did well with the hand they were dealt. I am in no way in favour of the behaviour of INEOS

  10. East Coast also has no booking fees on it’s website – even if you are not going to/from one of their stations :-)

  11. RAF
    He was on about Maidenhead a while ago, so I just made the quip based on that. I don’t want to know where he lives and neither should we.

  12. Jack R
    None of them do (the operating companies that is). You must be referring to independent agent sites.

  13. Where I live isn’t exactly a great secret, it’s there at the top of my Twitter thingy

    https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells

  14. @ RiN

    Everyone on this site knows that there were special circumstances in dunfermline, your last post was a cheap shot
    ——————-
    I think that is a very dismissive/ aggressive comment by you.

    I was hoping that L Hamilton would provide me with his opinion (or even better, actual data) regarding the effect of these ‘special circumstances’ on the SNP -> Labour swing. Does he have any polling or canvassing information which would help us to understand the outcome in greater depth?

  15. No Anber it was just a cheap shot

  16. @MSmithsonPB: ComRes phone poll out at 10pm with some big changes I’m told

    Now I think there is a view that ComRes is not Ti be relied on. However if the big changes favour Labour I will believe them.

  17. Couper –
    I didn’t think for a minute you condoned Radcliffes behaviour. But this was the latest humiliating defeat for the left and in particular for the Union bureaucracy who in the face of a strike of capital could do nothing but cave in.
    No doubt the Union bosses pay won’t be cut nor their pensions.

  18. I have to defend Amber here L Hamilton made a comment regarding Labour being in a mire if their own making. No idea what he was referring to. Amber had every right to challenge him.

  19. @ Roger Rebel

    I’m not sure I follow you. I really didn’t mean my comment as a cheap shot at the SNP or L Hamilton; I was interested in what s/he’d say in response – but s/he didn’t reply (at least not yet).

  20. Not you Amber RIN

  21. Couper2802,

    Now I think there is a view that ComRes is not Ti be relied on. However if the big changes favour Labour I will believe them.

    Lol!

    Has anyone posted today’s Populus yet? Here it is:

    38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1)

    Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi281013

    No sign of ComRes’s impending Labour landslide/sudden Tory lead there… Or maybe they’re showing the Lib Dems as the largest party? That would be fun.

  22. @Couper2802

    “@MSmithsonPB: ComRes phone poll out at 10pm with some big changes I’m told”

    If Smithson and Political Betting are drawing attention to the poll, I suspect it will be a favourable one for the Tories.

  23. “Has anyone posted today’s Populus yet? Here it is:
    38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1)”

    Almost exactly my prediction for tonight’s YouGov!

  24. @Trots57

    I know it is depressing. I am hoping that Labour might be able to redress the balance if they win in 2015.

    The power of big business versus the worker/individual is now far too one sided but for some reason the Right are still able to demonise unions who are only trying to protect their members. And most of us have more in common with those union members than with folk like Radcliffe. So we should have more support and sympathy for the unions.

  25. @ Crossbat11,

    Really? Smithson has come out pretty hard against several of those “Despite current polling the Tories are actually going to win a majority because of Reason X” stories that crop up every five minutes. He strikes me as fairly neutral.

    (That said, as far as variance around the 7-point lead mean is concerned, a 14-point Labour lead is relatively uninteresting compared to level pegging, so if anyone is drawing attention to anything it probably is good for the Tories.)

  26. Er, the 5-point lead, rather. Bit of wishful thinking there on my part!

    Point still stands, though.

  27. @Crossbat XI

    Mike Smithson may be a Tory, but he is primarily a psephologist. As such, he’ll be as excited by a significant movement to Labour, as he would be if it were t’other way around.

    And he has proved this in the past.

  28. We may see TOH Sine and a few more Blues back

  29. @Spearmint

    “(That said, as far as variance around the 7-point lead mean is concerned, a 14-point Labour lead is relatively uninteresting compared to level pegging, so if anyone is drawing attention to anything it probably is good for the Tories.)”

    Blimey, an MOE of + or – 7%!! lol

    You could well be right about Smithson in the sense that I hardly know the man, but his website (Political Betting), carried an awful lot of pro-Tory/ Tory-centric material during the last General Election campaign.

  30. Mike Smithson is actually a self declared LibDem and a former candidate. His general comments are anti – Tory!

  31. Thanks Spearmint
    UKIP and LD reversed compared with YouGov. Let’s just say they are about 10 and 11 roughly?

  32. @ Crossbat11,

    I just know Smithson from his Twitter feed, where he seems fairly objective. And a force for objectivity, insofar as he’ll actively debunk stuff if it seems like nonsense (perhaps not being a pollster himself, he doesn’t feel bound by the same chains of professional courtesy that constrain Anthony. ;) )

    Can’t comment on the website, but according to Wikipedia he’s a Lib Dem…

  33. MS is (was) as neutral as AW on his own comments. I don’t look at PB any more due to the less than intelligent rantings.

  34. @ Roger Rebel

    Thank you :-)

  35. @ RAF

    You mentioned your birthday was a few days after mine. Is it today? If it is: Happy Birthday – & I hope you are having a good one. :-)

  36. @ Howard,

    Well, Populus has its demented Ukip order-of-magnitude-downweighing system. So we might take their Ukip and Lib Dem VIs with a grain of salt.

  37. @Spearmint/Graham.

    Thanks. I’ve learnt something I didn’t know about Mike Smithson today!

  38. Test

  39. Amber

    Got one in auto mod for you

  40. Mike Smithson off PB is a Lib Dem, however, by what he posts I don’t think he is armoured with the coalition. He regularly falls out with the Conservative supporters on his site. He is the only person I know who dislikes Mr Gove more than me. If memory serves me right, he lives in a marginal and is seriously contemplating voting Labour.

    With all that considered…..the poll will show the Conservative Party in front. A big Labour lead is not really a shock as now and again we get a double figure one for them anyway.

  41. As I’m sure you are all aware, David malone author of “debt generation” and financial blogger will be standing for the green party in Scarborough and Whitney. He has a bit of a mountain to climb, lol, but I hope he does well

  42. @Mrnameless

    The story I read was that he has resigned his council cabinet post, rather than the seat itself.

  43. Also the greens have recently adopted the policy of ending fractional reserve banking, which means my background might soon become colorful again

  44. @Amber

    To address your post objectively, the people of Dunfermline are not the people of Grangemouth. In news interviews, most voters did not take Grangemouth into their voting intention.

    One had nothing to do with the other, especially if you take into account postal voting.

  45. The last poll showing the Conservative Party in front was the ICM/Guardian 16-18 March 2012

  46. “We may see TOH Sine and a few more Blues back”

    Look forward to that.

  47. @statgeek

    My journalism lecturer has lied to me then. He should know better. Maybe he should have listened to his messages to make sure?

  48. Stop Press!!!

    Tories in the lead by 3 points in ComRes.

    I’m getting the hell out of here! lol

  49. @MrNameless

    Found the link I read earlier:

    http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/sheffield-councillor-quits-over-late-rates-1-6186303

    “One of Sheffield’s most senior councillors who has overseen collection of council tax and business rates has resigned from his cabinet role after running into arrears with his own payments.”

    It wouldn’t be the first time a media source got things wrong though, so either version might be the truth.

  50. Prof Curtice has his usual non-partisan analysis of the Scottish Panelbase poll here,

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/10/which-way-might-the-dont-knows-go-evidence-from-the-wings-poll/

    The rest of you polling geeks may want to note this comment.

    ” In terms of the number of questions asked at least, it is one of the largest commercial public opinion polls to have been conducted in Scotland in recent years. It is doubtful whether any newspaper or even broadcaster could afford so large a project nowadays. True, Lord Ashcroft probably could, but that only underlines how this referendum is witnessing the erosion of the monopoly that the media have hitherto largely had in commissioning publicly available polls. Their place is being challenged by finance available from the politically committed – either in the form of a wealthy individual or, as in the case of this poll, an internet gathered crowd.”

    Anthony has, no doubt, strengthened his financial base by ensuring that he isn’t reliant on the press for his daily bread.

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