YouGov’s weekly results for the Sunday Times are out here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%.

The poll started with an interesting question on the economy – directly addressing the queries you sometimes see on whether the GDP figures are actually reflected in ordinary’s people’s experience. 34% of people think the economy is now growing again across Britain as a whole, 41% do not. Asked about their own local area though, 22% think the economy is growing, 55% do not – people in London and the south are more likely to see the economy as growing, the north and Scotland less so. (Note more than half of the fieldwork would have been completed before the new GDP figures came out, so they won’t yet reflect that). You can look at this a pessimistic or optimistic way (or vice-versa, depending on one’s preferred outcome to the election) – one that the government isn’t benefiting from economic growth because many people aren’t feeling it in their own areas, the other that given many people don’t think the economy is growing yet, there’s plenty more potential upside for the government if/when they do.

Most of the poll deal with questions about energy prices. On the cost of living Labour have a lead, but only a tiny one – 26% trust Labour more, 24% the Conservatives. Solid majorities support all the energy price proposals made over the last few days, 72% support Miliband’s price freeze, 73% Major’s windfall tax, 64% Cameron’s reduction in green taxes. Asked to choose just ONE of them though the price freeze is the most popular, picked by 39% to the green tax reduction’s 28% and the windfall tax on 23%.

Looking more specifically at green taxes, only 15% of people support the continuation of the green levy on energy bills. 39% would rather the spending was funded directly from generation taxation, 34% would rather the money was not spent at all. In a forced choice question 52% would rather the government acted to cut bills, even if it mean less action was taken to cut CO2 emissions and protect the environment.

Looking to future energy needs the parties are exactly matched, 22% would trust the Tories more, 22% Labour more. On the principle of the new nuclear power station 49% support the deal, 30% are opposed. There are more concerns about the details – 55% think it’s unacceptable for French and Chinese companies to be involved, 49% think it is unacceptable for the government to promise to pay a minimum price for the electricity generated.

There were also a couple of questions on drug legalisation. 47% of people would support the decriminalisation (25%) or full legalisation (22%) or “soft” drugs like cannabis, 45% would prefer their sale and possession to remain a criminal offence. There is far less support for softening restrictions on harder drugs, 71% think that drugs like heroin and crack should remain illegal.

Looking at the rest of the Sunday papers, there is also a Survation poll” in the Sunday Times which has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 17%, and a Panelbase poll in the Herald (but commissioned by Wings over Scotland) which has referendum voting intentions of YES 35%, NO 43%, Undecided 20%. This is broadly typical of Panelbase – with the exception of a single poll in Jan 2013 and the SNP commissioned poll with leading questions, they’ve been consistently showing a lead of between 8-10 points since summer 2012.


271 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. Compare the breadth and intelligence of Andrew Rawnsley’s writings with the the narrowness and stupidity of Hodges’.

    Wonder is they just give him a title [eg “Why Labour can’t win as a Marxist party”] and say “Can we have three columns on that please?” and he just goes into auto-pilot.

  2. Last but not least (or first for anyone looking at this thread before Anthony gets here), Don’t Knows and Not Voting:

    http://i.imgur.com/BDe8pkB.png

    Tory DKs continue their slow decline. Labour DKs seem like they might have peaked and started to come back down, but the change is very slight and they’re still way above where they were back in the spring. Lib Dems DKs remain indecisive.

  3. Turk
    Politics aside l’ve just had a look at the BBC weather map and it looks likely the Great Storm is going to dump a month’s worth of rain in ten minutes on my homestead (15 miles west of Bristol on the coast) around about midnight .On its way up it’s coming through Devon and Dorset, which IIRC is where your farm is located. Now,l’ve only got a cat and she’s got enough sense to stay indoors, so good luck with the donkeys etc !

  4. @ COUPER2802

    I can report from the NE that a sizeable majority are against independence, and the opposition is even greater among young people.

    All the secondaries in Aberdeenshire had mock referenda before the Tattie Holidays, and only 24.6% voted for independence, cf. 75.6% against.

    In our local academy the votes were just 133 for, 594 against.

    The area most in favour of independence was Banff, but even there it was only 35% in favour, 65% against..

  5. @ That Old Bloke,

    Who would ever say “I want to keep a tax in place”?

    Well, if you ask about the 50p tax rate…

    @ Pups,

    Compare the breadth and intelligence of Andrew Rawnsley’s writings with the the narrowness and stupidity of Hodges’.

    I’d rather not, as it means I’d have to read Hodges’ writings. Why are we doing that again?

  6. @Spearmint

    It looks to me that the Labour % has gone to DK rather than UKIP from there charts?

  7. Sorry I mean these charts (this missing 3-4% seems to be more Labour DKs)

  8. @ Couper2802,

    Some of it probably has (it’s hard to know how much because the DKs aren’t scaled in the same way as VI- the chart is just giving the raw numbers from the YouGov crossbreak because I don’t understand how to scale it), but most of Labour’s decline happened before May 1st, and you can see the Labour DKs are pretty flat over that period. So I think the bulk of it did go to Ukip.

    (Remember, Ukip hits Labour from three sources: Lab -> Ukip, LD -> Lab -> Ukip, and Tory -> Lab -> Ukip. The second two don’t show up directly in the charts, but LD -> Lab and Tory -> Lab declined over the same period that Ukip was rising and there was no increase in LD or Tory retention, so those voters probably were going over to Ukip.)

  9. “Compare the breadth and intelligence of Andrew Rawnsley’s writings with the the narrowness and stupidity of Hodges’.

    I’d rather not, as it means I’d have to read Hodges’ writings. Why are we doing that again?”

    1/ Because someone brought his name up

    2/ It is possible to compare the quality using only the memory. No reading is required.

  10. What annoys me about Hodges is that he pretends to be a Labour insider (trading on his Mother’s name) and to have: quote “tribal loyalty” to Labour.

  11. Well, he can’t pretend anymore, since he’s flounced out of the party.

  12. DAVID WELCH

    Nice to see that the old name “Tattie Holidays” is still being used. In my day (said the old fogie) they were actually that, and back-breaking work, picking tatties was!

    I’d be chary of using a single poll like that as evidence of the wider picture, however. The Panelbase poll, while the youngest folk they polled were a bit older (18-24), showed greater support for No as well – 68% to 28%.

    The value of this poll, however, regardless of whether it gets the actual numbers more accurately than the likes of TNS, is the insight into the attitudes to aspects of politics held by different groups.

    For example, in the last question, respondents were asked to agree or disagree with the statement “The Scottish people would make a success of an independent Scotland.”

    Agree, 55%, Disagree 30%, Don’t Know 15%.

    Unsurprisingly, 96% of Yes voters agreed. Of some concern for the No camp would be that 68% of the Undecideds agreed with that as well (as did 48% of Labour voters).

    In the No camp, however, 62% disagreed. 8% of SNP voters, 32% of Labour supporters, 42% of Lib Dems and a massive 76% of Conservatives think Scots are uniquely incapable of running their own affairs.

    That 30% displaying the so-called “Scottish Cringe” can be more interestingly broken down by the other cross-breaks, but that will have to wait for the publication of the data tables.

  13. Spearmint,

    Nice work. Thanks for sharing.

    Is there any chance that you have the ‘churn’ data for 2010 through to 2012?

  14. @OldNat,

    But what exactly does “making a success” mean? I can’t think of a single country, apart from perhaps Somalia, which is entirely unsuccessful. And I certainly can’t think of a single country which is entirely successful.

    Surely what really matters is whether Scots believe that Scotland would be more or less successful on her own than as part of the UK? I would imagine that question would pretty much follow “Yes” and “No” voting intention, although perhaps not completely. There would be some people who think Scotland would be worse off, but hate the English too much to care. And presumably others who think that Scotland would be better off, but have sufficient romantic attachment to Unionism to be willing to take the hit.

  15. Thanks Spearmint- interesting stuff especially the ‘don’t knows’.

  16. on

    “Nice to see that the old name “Tattie Holidays” is still being used”

    “Tattie ‘owking” – same inwith England I believe.

  17. OLDNAT:

    Response to the last question in this Panelbase poll is hard to analyse.

    Is the success the 55% expected going to be better under independence or just the same as in the united UK? Are these 55% thinking the people now in Scotland will still run a successful country despite the disadvantages of not controlling or influencing decisions at Westminster and the big capitalist beasts?

    It is ironic that the most successful part of Scotland with unemployment less than 2%, house prices soaring (up 6% in the last 3 months and 20% in the last 12 months), should be the region most opposed to independence, that`s if my reading of the high No vote here is correct.

    Certainly I personally feel the people in Scotland could run a country successful on the world scale. But it would be a lot less successful than if we hadn`t separated.

  18. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    This is a great place to learn things.

    I hadn’t realised that all over England, school holidays were organised to allow tatties to be harvested. That didn’t happen in Scotland, where, in the pre-mechanised days of agriculture, only areas like Aberdeenshire, Angus etc had “Tattie Holidays”.

    I’m happy to take your word that Eton in the 1950s had holidays to allow the pupils to return to Mayfair and howk the tatties in the fields.

  19. DAVID WELCH

    The analysis seems pretty straightforward – as does the original statement.

    There is an argument to be made that although Scots could run all their own affairs perfectly well, they would be better off having lots of things run from London.

    That isn’t, however, what disagreeing with the statement means (or even implies).

    As to the poll of secondary pupils, you really can’t generalise that out to the whole population.

  20. Ewen Lightfoot

    Thanks for your thoughts, we’ve been out rounding up donkey’s put them in the small barn, there’s not much we can do for the chickens but they should stay in the hen houses, the pigs have been shifted into the big barn. The farm cats are taking there chances with the pigs and my old dog refuses to move from her spot by the fire so hopefully we should be okay fingers crossed.

  21. @Spearmint

    “What’s especially mysterious about this is the Lib Dems appear not to care.”

    Yes, I agree. They seem not to care. Knowing what motivates them intimately from years gone by, I wonder if the leading lights of the party made a Faustian bargain with posterity – namely 5 years in power followed by probable oblivion, rather than an eternity on the opposition benches? Perhaps therefore their own private inner expectations are why they are so relaxed? I can just hear them consoling each other with “There is life after politics you know”.
    Their conference showed what I suspected and that is all the rank-and-file that remain are docile centre-rightists as all the radicals (like me!) left long ago?

  22. Even ,Turk ,

    We are also holding firm.So far also seems calm.

  23. For the love of Pete,why the hell is that in moderation?

  24. @spearmint
    “What’s especially mysterious about this is the Lib Dems appear not to care.”

    I have been thinking this very strange for a while – if Lab or Cons were on half their 2010 vote and losing councillors week after week, there would be a bloodbath.

    Plus LibDs do not seem to be getting anything major out if this deal. My theory is they are pinning their hopes on another hung parliament.

  25. AW. I was talking about the weather not politics .

  26. ON

    ole nat

    “ROSIEANDDAISIE

    This is a great place to learn things.

    I hadn’t realised that all over England, school holidays were organised to allow tatties to be harvested. That didn’t happen in Scotland, where, in the pre-mechanised days of agriculture, only areas like Aberdeenshire, Angus etc had “Tattie Holidays”.

    I’m happy to take your word that Eton in the 1950s had holidays to allow the pupils to return to Mayfair and howk the tatties in the fields.”

    …………………………………………………………………………………

    You have obviously misunderstood the commonly used term “inwith”, which owr dad uses all the time, as meaning “throughout the entirety of England.

    To clarify for you, we meant inwith [or “within” as some people might say] the boundaries of England but not necessarily in every hamlet, village, town city or posh school.

    For example, owr dad once did it [tatty ‘owkin] in Kent which, as you know is inwith England.

    Very sorry to confuse you.

    The girls.

  27. About ten past nine, lots of rain in Surrey.

    No hurricane yet.

    Should I stay up? Slept through 1987.

  28. So why is Nick P not in moderation? Very cross about this.

  29. Only a matter of time, Ann.

  30. Ann – same reason as last time :)

    You changed the email address you use, the system thinks you’re a new person and holds you back for moderation.

  31. Okay,I give up.Everything is lovely here in Wales.

  32. ann in W

    “So why is Nick P not in moderation? Very cross about this.”

    Irony is permitted on the last Sunday of any month ending in “er”.

    Unless decided otherwise by arbitrary dictatorial diktat.

    That’s how we understand the rules anyway.

  33. Anthony,,Oh dear.So sorry.To you and Nick.

  34. nickp

    “About ten past nine, lots of rain in Surrey.

    No hurricane yet.

    Should I stay up? Slept through 1987.”

    …………………………………………………………………………………

    Ooooor Pa says dinnae looook ootwith thuh windae Nick.

    Surrey is a dangerous place for a Southern Softy.

  35. Last time we had a hurricane in Surrey the Tories were in power. Disapproval from the gods?

  36. nick

    “Should I stay up? Slept through 1987.”

    That’s impressive: most I’ve slept recently is about five hours.

  37. Well,anyway,I hardly dare to speak now,but things are very quiet .

  38. For those interested in the weather, head over here and read the debate.

    I find it fascinating – there seems to be the feeling it may be less serious than the prognostics (don’t blame Met Office as media will tomorrow though if that is the case – it is based on modelling and they started their predictions before the low had even formed off the coast of the US – I for one am pretty impressed)

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78284-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013-part-3/page-46

  39. @Spearmint

    Thanks. I was inetrested to see if there had been any significant Lab>Con (or vice versa) switch at any point in this parliament. I thought there would have been something after the referendum pledge or omnishambles. Interestingly, it looks like there’s hardly been any churn between the two.

    I guess we don’t have much good data from previous parliaments but might we say that the Lab/Con swing voter is almost instinct?

  40. Is this okay?

  41. Or this

  42. Anthony,I will just try again tomorrow. crazy tonight.

  43. ROSIEANDDAISIE

    “Inwith” is a perfectly comprehensible term.

    Though obsolete now in most forms of English, I’m sure that suits your Dad perfectly.

  44. Just for interest I live in a marginal constituency, on Saturday there were about 6 Labour local party members, including their selection for candidate at the next general election, in the centre of the city trying to get people to sign a petition to freeze energy prices.

    I thought it was very clever, good local activism and wonder if it was a wider initiative by the party and happened in other marginals too?

  45. Xanadan,

    I’m fairly sure that’s what the Sheffield Hallam CLP was doing door-to-door today. I was going to join them but saw an enormous rain cloud approaching and bailed.

  46. @bcrombie

    I caught the lunchtime BBC1 forecast on Tuesday … they drew attention to the ‘formation which hadn’t yet formed’ then.

    Fwiw, it’s been very windy here for 24 hours or more now, but nothing really exceptional. I’m hoping it doesn’t develope futher. If the wind speed were to almost double overnight (as per some of the forecasts) it could get worrying.

  47. mr nat

    Owr dad reads us Chaucer most nights and he is very modern. [Chaucer, not owr dad.]

  48. ROSIE and DAISIE:

    prep. 1. Within.
    This purse hath she inwith her bosom hid.
    – Chaucer

    So the usage is the opposite of the more common “outwith”, meaning anywhere beyond. Rather than outside, which now usually means, at least in Scotland, just beyond.

    So “outwith Scotland” could be anywhere in England, Wales, etc. But outside Scotland is Carlisle, Hexham.

  49. NEIL A

    Sorry, I missed your question earlier.

    “But what exactly does “making a success” mean?”

    As a regular on here, you know perfectly well that any question, in any poll, means what the respondent thinks it means!

    In Scotland, given the long debate we have been having on our constitutional position, I don’t think there can be much doubt as to how most respondents would see it.

    That may well be different from how someone outwith Scotland would look at it, but if you think of that question being asked in England in the context of a poll on EU membership, then that should provide your answer.

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