YouGov’s weekly results for the Sunday Times are out here. Topline figures are CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%.

The poll started with an interesting question on the economy – directly addressing the queries you sometimes see on whether the GDP figures are actually reflected in ordinary’s people’s experience. 34% of people think the economy is now growing again across Britain as a whole, 41% do not. Asked about their own local area though, 22% think the economy is growing, 55% do not – people in London and the south are more likely to see the economy as growing, the north and Scotland less so. (Note more than half of the fieldwork would have been completed before the new GDP figures came out, so they won’t yet reflect that). You can look at this a pessimistic or optimistic way (or vice-versa, depending on one’s preferred outcome to the election) – one that the government isn’t benefiting from economic growth because many people aren’t feeling it in their own areas, the other that given many people don’t think the economy is growing yet, there’s plenty more potential upside for the government if/when they do.

Most of the poll deal with questions about energy prices. On the cost of living Labour have a lead, but only a tiny one – 26% trust Labour more, 24% the Conservatives. Solid majorities support all the energy price proposals made over the last few days, 72% support Miliband’s price freeze, 73% Major’s windfall tax, 64% Cameron’s reduction in green taxes. Asked to choose just ONE of them though the price freeze is the most popular, picked by 39% to the green tax reduction’s 28% and the windfall tax on 23%.

Looking more specifically at green taxes, only 15% of people support the continuation of the green levy on energy bills. 39% would rather the spending was funded directly from generation taxation, 34% would rather the money was not spent at all. In a forced choice question 52% would rather the government acted to cut bills, even if it mean less action was taken to cut CO2 emissions and protect the environment.

Looking to future energy needs the parties are exactly matched, 22% would trust the Tories more, 22% Labour more. On the principle of the new nuclear power station 49% support the deal, 30% are opposed. There are more concerns about the details – 55% think it’s unacceptable for French and Chinese companies to be involved, 49% think it is unacceptable for the government to promise to pay a minimum price for the electricity generated.

There were also a couple of questions on drug legalisation. 47% of people would support the decriminalisation (25%) or full legalisation (22%) or “soft” drugs like cannabis, 45% would prefer their sale and possession to remain a criminal offence. There is far less support for softening restrictions on harder drugs, 71% think that drugs like heroin and crack should remain illegal.

Looking at the rest of the Sunday papers, there is also a Survation poll” in the Sunday Times which has topline figures of CON 29%, LAB 35%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 17%, and a Panelbase poll in the Herald (but commissioned by Wings over Scotland) which has referendum voting intentions of YES 35%, NO 43%, Undecided 20%. This is broadly typical of Panelbase – with the exception of a single poll in Jan 2013 and the SNP commissioned poll with leading questions, they’ve been consistently showing a lead of between 8-10 points since summer 2012.


271 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 33, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. Crossbat come back!!!!!!!

    36/28/11/12.

    :-)

  2. As I thought – it is a big Con drop.

    No reason for the opposite really is there?

  3. @MSmithsonPB: CON drop 5 in ComRes phone poll for Indy
    Con   28%-5                    Lab    36%-1      
    UKIP 12
    LD 11%=                     
    OTH 13% +5

  4. Ole MOE doesn’t explain all of that.

    YG will be interesting but, with winter etc etc coming I wonder if we have arrived at a tipping point?

    Let’s see what Sine thinks, he’s a bloke with a finger on the pulse.

  5. Have to say I have never really trusted Comres – far too volatile. The change in ‘Others’ is very strange.

  6. Energy price reaction really hurting – mind only one poll and comres can go in all sorts of funny directions – yougov will interesting

  7. RosieandDaisie – I know there are Conservative Party election workers absolutely obsessed with the weather reports at the moment and are dreading a drop in temperatures. One was overheard saying that they are praying for a mild winter.

  8. Going all to others? Feels wrong to me….. Unfortunately

  9. It looks as though the Tory loss has basically moved to Other. This seems a bit unlikely. They have hardly any presence in Scotland to lose to the SNP. Have they upset the Welsh lately, or is this a move to Green after the announcement of the new nuclear reactor?

  10. +5 for OTH?

    That looks like a large Green vote. 37 voters = 4.7%. Natalie Bennett will be pleased at any rate.

    No explanation as for why the Greens seem to be gaining from the Tories, though.

    SNP and Plaid pretty heavily weighted down.

    Also, we finally have regional figures: Con lead 38-31 in East Midlands, but Labour 37-22% up in West Midlands.

    Tories on, er, 6% in Wales. Wow.

    And that 1% for the LDs in Yorks and Humberside looks pretty bad. That’ll be Sheffield Hallam then.

  11. Before we break out the red bunting, can I remind everyone we call them Comedy Results for a reason? I was all set to not care about a poll showing a Tory lead, and I’m planning to be equally dismissive of this one.

    Polling consensus puts the lead around 5 points with the Tories in the low 30s. Nothing dramatic has happened in the past few days to shift that.

  12. Apparently the Greens are on 5% in Comres poll!

  13. red rag

    ” One was overheard saying that they are praying for a mild winter.”

    Bugger. If ole god’s a conservative we’ll have no snow for xmas.

  14. Con to Green sort of makes sense if they are ‘hug a huskie’ Cons who are horrified by DC’s abandonment of Green taxes.

    However I am with Spearmint on this probably nonsense.

  15. Wasn’t He a Liberal Democrat when last polled?

  16. “I was all set to not care about a poll showing a Tory lead, and I’m planning to be equally dismissive of this one.”

    As you wish but me, Daisie and owr dad prefer to be dismissive of a guddun than a baddun.

    Rose.

  17. Obviously that shift to Others is a whole pile of Tories suddenly getting a pash on for Gorgeous George and defecting to Respect.

    I think the best we can probably say for that poll is that it adds to the gaiety of nations.

    However, one thing that might happen is that if the Tories panic and overreact to it, there’s a chance that they might do something that really does shift VI, so maybe we shouldn’t completely dismiss it.

  18. As Amber would say, it’s a Comedy Result again. Big noise, no signal.

  19. New thread – if you’re fast you might be first!

  20. @ RiN

    Your comment is still in automod. Either you need to reword it, or specifically ask Anthony to please dig it out.

  21. @ Postage Included

    Indeed. ComRes are my least favourite polling firm, even when it seems like good news for the red team I don’t get excited.

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