This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%. It comes after an eight point lead yesterday, and a couple of six points leads at the end of last week, so we’ve had a couple of polls in a row with leads at the top of the normal range. I’m always wary of reading too much into polls that could be explained by normal sample variation, but it could be that the price hikes from British Gas and the renewed prominence of energy prices as an issue over the last few days has given Labour a bit of a boost. Or it’s just random sample error – keep watching the trend.

There were also some YouGov questions in the Times on Free Schools, which found a significant drop in support since YouGov last asked in September. A month ago 36% of people in England supported free schools, 40% were opposed… a pretty even split. Now 27% of people support free schools, 47% are opposed. I suspect the shift is more to do with the coverage of the dysfunctional Al-Madinah free school in Derby than Nick Clegg’s recent comments, but looking specifically at his comments 66% of people agree that schools should only be able to employ qualified teachers, 56% that all schools should have to follow the national curriculum.


488 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 39, LD 9, UKIP 11”

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  1. Howard
    I was thinking about the lack of interest in the Merkel story too.
    I suppose unless they is a direct connection to Britain – such as a public figure here being listened in on, or GCHQ is shown to be involved – its not really going to affect anyone’s vote.

  2. Threats to the BBC license fee money if the BBC doesn’t remove its bias from reporting!! Is this really a good fight for the Tories to pick?

  3. @ John Pilgrim

    An Amber Moon cocktail; thank you for drawing my attention to that, I shall have one next time I am in a suitably upmarket bar. :-)

    I like Ms Christie’s books – they were frightful drivel (which she knew) but very entertaining. She often gently mocked herself via the character, Ariadne Oliver.

  4. RiN

    Re BBC I had the same reaction ‘Are they bloody stupid – so BBC if you don’t do as we say we will stop giving the license fee after the next election. Now it is in the BBC’s interest to make sure the Cons don’t win the next election

  5. RiN
    Yougov did a survey in July.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/41whd9glei/YG-Archive-Media-Standards-Trust-results-180713-press-regulation.pdf

    The BBC were trusted by 61% to 30%. Interesting by VI, the only group that where the majority were negative about the BBC were UKIP supporters.
    Is Crosby going for a 35% strategy?

  6. Another Mike Smithson tweet:

    Mike Smithson [email protected] 2m

    Tonight’s YouGov for the Sunday Times has LAB with 6% lead No party shares yet

  7. Prediction

    Lab 39
    Cons 33
    Lib 11
    UKIP 12

  8. Couper

    I was thinking more in polling terms, with the BBC being trusted much more than politicians, it would take quite some doing to move the polling in their favour. Again it smacks of playing to their base vote because it’s only the base that believes that the BBC is significantly biased

  9. @Anthony

    Is there any chance you can give me Rob Sheffields personal e.mail address? It’s high time we two kindred spirits exchanged pleasantries again.

    Then maybe Turk’s, possibly?

  10. @RIN

    I think raising left wing bias in the BBC is bad for everyone.

    It would descend into a situation that would create loads of hot air, and as the issue is so subjective, no one’s view would change one iota. Those politicians getting involved would look ridiculous and demean their reputation even further.

    Given that the polling for the Conservatives looks like they have work to do before 2015, surely they would be wiser to spend time trying to win support by presenting policies?

  11. Correction:

    @RIN

    I think raising alleged left wing bias in the BBC is bad for everyone.

    It would descend into a situation that would create loads of hot air, and as the issue is so subjective, no one’s view would change one iota. Those politicians getting involved would look ridiculous and demean their reputation even further.

    Given that the polling for the Conservatives looks like they have work to do before 2015, surely they would be wiser to spend time trying to win support by presenting policies?

  12. @Anthony Wells

    I’m not sure where you get the idea from that HS2 is somehow an issue on which Cameron can rebuild support in the North.

    The last YouGov poll had support at 32% in the North and opposition at 55%. In the Midlands it was even more extreme at 29%/59%. Nationally it was 29%/55%.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2aflqov4qn/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-060913.pdf

    Had the question put £50 billion into some meaningful context, by asking people to choose between HS2 and an alternative list of a variety of infrastructure projects, I would expect that the for/against ratio would have shrunk to well below 1:2. Expect such a list to be given some prominence if and when Labour comes out against HS2.

  13. “@Anthony

    Is there any chance you can give me Rob Sheffields personal e.mail address? It’s high time we two kindred spirits exchanged pleasantries again.

    Then maybe Turk’s, possibly?”

    Crossbatty

    Owr dad sez if your short of chums [and he understands why] you can have his for nothing.

    “I feel a kind of reflected glory, isn’t that silly?”

    We feel that way about owr dad: he’s really, really great !!

    Its his burfdy on November 8th but he would be dead cross if he knew we had mentioned it.

  14. @Amber Star

    All I can send you is a sheepish “sorry I forgot” post.

  15. @ RiN

    I agree it seems a very strange thing to obsess over – supposed BBC bias.
    Tomorrows papers are not good for the electricity companies.

  16. @Charles

    I’ll stick with psophology as the study of “inarticulate sound” or “noise”, which is the meaning in Homer and Euripedes, at least according to Middle Liddell. The point is to distinguish the signal from the noise, pseph- from psophology. We all strive for the former, of course, and accuse others of the latter.

    Your remarks on Grammar Schools are worthy of discussion, but it’s late, and I fear we would trespass into the politics of another age. Besides wh

  17. @SoCalLiberal

    Btw, sorry to hear about your trials. Have you seen this guy? :) I was surprised to find he is Canadian because he acts totally British in Orphan Black:

    h
    ttp://www.thegate.ca/spotlight/017147/interview-with-jordan-gavaris-on-the-set-of-orphan-black/

    I mean, even I sort of fancy him, and I’m straight. Well, I don’t fancy him, that is impossible, but I did find myself thinking that it might be fun to hang out with the Felix caracter for an hour or two.

    But what if we really hit it off (total realms of fantasy here)? I mean, there’d be no romantic attraction on either side obviously, but he might get bored and be like – why don’t you give it a go – and I’d be like – what the heck. But I’d be so baked that I’d actually be dead by this stage, which could be cool. What a way to go. Especially if he turned up to the funeral and pouted at the massed ranks of ex-gfs… there would be consternation!

  18. !?
    …Besides which it doesn’t throw much light on todays problems – Humpty Dumpty can’t be put back together.

  19. ITV news tonight: Pressure off David Cameron on energy as Ed Miliband reveals he switched energy supplies last year.

    Stand by for further embarrassing revelations tomorrow when ITV publish footage of Ed wearing a sweater in winter.

  20. RiN

    Seems strange for one of the “big GB 3 parties” to be raising such an issue.

    Viewed from a different perspective, they all seem to get reasonably balanced coverage from the mainstream BBC news/current affairs output which is given to all UK – whether it is of any relevance or not (which is what BBC procedures require).

    Whether that is equally the case for parties outwith the metropolitan consciousness might be another matter.

    Output in the other nations of the UK can have different inherent biases which may, or may not, reflect the political systems there very well, but the overwhelming dominance of issues in England in UK programming certainly distorts accurate reporting of what is relevant outwith that country.

  21. Oldnat

    I’m sorry, is there anyone apart from your good self that lives outwith England, I thought it was all desolate wasteland

  22. @RiN

    The threat only exists if Grant Shapps is in a position to act on it in 2016. In which case, in order to try and ensure that he isn’t, the BBC might be tempted to break the habit of a lifetime.

  23. Oldnat

    I just checked on my BBC map, the area north of London gradually fades and it says “here be dragons” it must be true cos the BBC says so

  24. Phil H
    Isn’t it ludicrous when the media make a story out of someone wearing a jumper in winter? Or switching energy suppliers for that matter. I’m no supporter of Ed M, but how pathetic.

  25. RiN

    That’s no way to talk about Mrs Nat! (Thank goodness she doesn’t read the drivel on here).

  26. Oldnat

    The BBC map is really good, in my area it says “here be trolls” it’s almost like they know me

  27. @ Phil Haines

    LOL! & Thank you. :-)

  28. Asked by a Scot what Johnson thought of Scotland: ‘That it is a very vile country, to be sure, Sir’ ‘Well, Sir! (replies the Scot, somewhat mortified), God made it.’ Johnson: ‘Certainly he did; but we must always remember that he made it for Scotchmen.'”

  29. @ RosieNDaisie

    I have entered it in my ‘schedule’. I will keep quiet about you having leaked it on UKPR. You’re dad will be surprised when he gets the post on that day! ;-)

  30. Sorry, couldn’t resist.

  31. @Pete B
    The jumper bit is my imagination (for now), but the switching energy suppliers bit was real enough. Top quality political reporting, from Libby Wiener against a background of a floodlit Houses of Parliament.

  32. @ RiN

    I just checked on my BBC map, the area north of London gradually fades and it says “here be dragons” it must be true cos the BBC says so.
    —————-
    I a be a bit nippy, even fiery, on occasions but I think calling me a dragon is bit much…

  33. I’m mainly a lurker on this site but had to comment on how much I appreciate the civilised tone. It’s not impossible I might even learn something.
    And, of course, a belated happy birthday to Amber.

  34. @ Phil Haines

    The jumper bit is my imagination (for now), but the switching energy suppliers bit was real enough.
    —————–
    Well, quite. And you have may have hit upon what should be Ed’s answer if asked about supplier switching: “I am also wearing a jumper, does that make the big energy price hikes acceptable? Of course it doesn’t.”

    Or he might say: “I have taken the PM’s advice about switching & wearing a sweater. Why won’t he take my advice about freezing energy prices? Why won’t he take John Major’s advice about taxing big energy’s profiteering?”

    As far as Ed is concerned, the story may turn out to be good news because it keeps the issue in the media for another cycle.

  35. Switching energy suppliers is rational behaviour is it not? I’ve just done so, and I do most years. If enough people did it, you wouldn’t need to even contemplate state control, because competitive pressures would keep prices down.

  36. @Pete B

    If they’re all charging roughly the same, switching only offers a small saving. It is not the solution to a profoundly uncompetitive market, when at the same time if year (just before winter) almost all big suppliers increase their prices by roughly 10%.

  37. So go for a small supplier, like I just have.

  38. Also what BG is allegedly doing is immoral and possibly illegal.

    I work for a large company with millions of customers who a short while ago had to decide how to deal with the identical problem – what to do with credit balances on customer accounts upon cancellation. In some cases these went back years. We decided to refund the credit to eaxh of the affected (former) customers, provided we could trace them. We did NOT chose to retain the money.

  39. @Pete B

    In my case it makes no difference. Maybe if you use very little energy?

  40. @RAF
    Both my wife and employer complain about how little energy I use!

    And on that note, goodnight.

  41. @Pete B

    Goodnight

  42. The Survation VI figures are interesting, not least because, poking around, it reveals that they also did a poll 18-21 Oct (released 24 Oct) which I don’t think was mentioned here. This had headline VI of:

    Con 29 (+2)

    Lab 38 (+1)

    Lib Dem 10 (-1)

    UKIP 16 (-2)

    Tables are here:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Press-Regulation-Report.pdf

    The figures were buried in a poll for the “Free Speech Network” and mainly consisted of one of Anthony’s Questions That Should Be Ignored which he missed off his list. In this case it was “Should the Government be doing this instead?” – where the fact that the public judge some wider topic such as the economy as more important that press regulation (or same sex marriage or House of Lords reform) is therefore taken to mean that the latter should not be done.

    In this case Survation asked Of the following list of political issues facing the UK today, please select the ten that you think MPs should most be concerning themselves with addressing, and rank them in the order of how much time you think MPs should be devoting to each one, with the top issue deserving the most time and the number 10 issue deserving the least time of the top 10.. They gave 20 options, so of course something like regulation of the press skipped most people top ten – we can all think of things more important, but it doesn’t mean that something shouldn’t be done. You will note that they didn’t ask if MPs should concern themselves with regulating the press.

    However I thought the resultant Ranked Score Table was interesting in itself as an insight into people’s priorities with a different methodology from the usual YouGov and MORI trackers:

    Healthcare / NHS 5475

    Inflation / Cost of living 5308

    Economic growth / Recession 4792

    Immigration / Overpopulation 4683

    Unemployment 4367

    Pensions / Benefits / Social 4112
    Security

    Education / Schools 3590

    Care for the elderly 3318

    Poverty / Inequality 3227

    Crime / Law & Order 3135

    Housing & homelessness 2790

    Our relationship with the EU 2226

    Defence / Counterterrorism 2047

    The Environment / Pollution 1500
    / Global warming

    Transport & Infrastructure 1301

    Morality / Individual 1048
    behaviour

    Foreign Affairs 711

    Illegal drugs 702

    Regulation of the press & 457
    journalism

    Constitutional reform 431

    I would have expected healthcare to be in the top 3 but not top and I was surprised how high inflation registered. If these remain ‘strong’ topics for Labour then the government may have problems.

  43. AMBER
    Re Ms Christie’s books, I hazard that we like them also because, like Richmal Crompton’s, John Buchan’a and Dornford Yates’,, they are good or bad sociology. In her case, not just as commentary on the middle classes and their habits and attitudes to abroad (Luxor, the Orient Express, My Dear!) but also on death as a social indicator; the critical moment when people know and have to reveal their place.

  44. Hello & welcome to GuyMonde :-)

    Do not lurk, we like to hear from people – & thank you for the birthday wishes!

  45. @ John Pilgrim

    …the critical moment when people know and have to reveal their place.
    ————–
    You may not have meant it as literally as this: but, off the top of my head, at least 5 of Christie’s plots hinge on the upper-class ignoring servants to such an extent that they do not notice when a murderer disguises him/herself as a butler/ waiter/ steward/ maid/ nurse.

  46. @ Roger Mexico

    I am also surprised about Healthcare/ NHS being the top issue, particularly when there is a separate category of Care for the elderly which is also ranked amongst the top 10.

  47. POSTAGEINCLUDED
    I must, for the sake of the historical record, clarify the revival of psophology. I saw that it was a typo as it flew off the keyboard, but thought – even if I did not then know the meaning (which has now been usefully discussed on this site). which deserved to be kept, and which one might describe as sorondopity.

  48. A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday found a large majority of consumers oppose green levies on energy bills.

    It found 60% opposed the levies, with just 18% supporting them. Some 61% said they would support the repeal of some of the levies, compared with11% who would not.

    The poll found almost three-quarters (72%) believed energy prices would affect the way they voted in the general election, with more (40%) backing Cameron’s approach than Miliband’s price freeze (33%).

    But more people blamed the energy companies (59%) than either the current government (15%) or the previous Labour administration (15%) for the spiralling cost of gas and electricity.
    ————–
    As reported by the Graun.

  49. As usual I got sidetracked, but that last post got a bit long to be even one of my footnotes. Anyway here’s the latest Survation headline:

    Con 29 (nc)

    Lab 35 (-2)

    Lib Dem 12 (+2)

    UKIP 17 (+1)

    Changes are since the poll I mentioned above, though as that was so recent you might also want to consolidate the changes to be from the one previous which was 13 October.

    Incidentally in my stupidity I hadn’t realised that Survation are now doing a ICM-style “shy” adjustment where reallocate Don’t Knows and Refuses back to their 2010 vote with a value of 0.3. This seems slightly odd as normally this sort of thing is only done with telephone polls. As you might expect Cons and Lib Dems benefit, Labour and UKIP lose out. Because they use a smaller value the results aren’t as dramatic as ICM – the unadjusted figures above are only 28/36/10/19.

    As with the other Survation the real interest lies in the detailed questions they asked. In this case these were about energy policy, green taxes and so on. There’s too many to summarise, but I would urge people to have a look through the tables:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/MailEnergyFinal.pdf

    as they did seem to capture the complexities and contradictions of people’s attitudes (they ask about different elements of the energy taxes for example). I couldn’t help noticing one response though. I would be happy to have a wind farm built in my area got 70% support. Somehow I doubt that the Mail will be headlining that particular result – and certainly not the Telegraph.

  50. @ Amber

    ‘The poll found almost three-quarters (72%) believed energy prices would affect the way they voted in the general election, with more (40%) backing Cameron’s approach than Miliband’s price freeze (33%).’

    David C’s approach would be ‘rolling back green levies’

    So he should get a boost in the polls if he did this

    But

    ‘Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat energy secretary, has promised to “fight like a tiger” against Conservative attempts to cut green levies on gas and electricity bills.’

    ‘….His comments were backed by Nick Clegg, who said he would never support the idea of removing all levies on fuel bills.’

    The key words there IMO are ‘ remove all levies’ so the deal would be that some green taxes would be funded by general taxation enabling a cut in energy bill increase. The question would be how much this would cut energy bills.

    The boost for the Cons would depend on whether the headlines were

    “Cons slash energy bills” Hurrah! boost!!

    Large transfer of green levies to general taxation

    or

    ‘Cons lose fight to cut bills’ Boo! no boost!

    Only a small amount of money transferred to general tax.

    IMO

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