Subscribe in a reader
I’m out tonight, but for those who aren’t you can expect to see a new ComRes for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer and the regular weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times.
First here today for new thread?
I expect my Q on the last thread won’t be seen now :-((
(hang dog expression)
@Oldnat – posted a reply to you on previous thread. It’s a nice one too.
Opinium / Observer
38 (+2) Lab
27 (-2) Con
17 (+2) UKIP
9 (+2) LD
Toby Helm ?@tobyhelm
Labour has 11% lead in Op/Obs poll. Lab 38 (+2) Con 27 (-2) Ukip 17 (+2), Lib Dems 9 (+2). Cameron lead on personal ratings also narrows.
Energy price increases – government response lacking ?
George & Boris – Visit to China to gain investment in UK may not be popular with some voters ?
The way governments handle current media events can have an affect on polling. What can the government do about energy prices increasing, apart from to tell consumers to switch ? Also the public may not see Chinese investment in the UK, in the same positive way that government ministers see it.
A Labour lead of 11 in latest Opinium poll? I shall enjoy my copy of the Observer even more than usual tomorrow! lol
re Opinium Poll. +6 and -2 surely can’t be right as Others = 9(nc).
If the previous Opinium poll was 6 Oct: Lab 36 Con 31 Ukip 15 LD 7
Then Con should be -4.
Ta. I’ve responded to you there (also nicely!)
I’ve suggested how your research might be usefully extended (if you haven’t done that already).
Con 32% (+4)
Lab 35% (-1)
UKIP 16% (-1)
LD 9% (-1)
Others 8% (-1)
So an Opinium poll that’s good for Labour, a Comres poll that’s good for the Tories… Will there be good news for UKIP and the Lib Dems in the YouGov poll?
Comres tables are also up:
(In both polls so far, Labour stay within the 40-36% range, barring outliers.)
Bill Patrick, you think it’s good for the Tories to be on 32%??
I think they’d consider it better than 28%. Mathematically, 32 is a bigger number than 28.
The way these various polls seem all over the place and out of synch with each other, I think there may well be one soon that’s good news for the Greens, let alone UKIP and the Lib Dems!
Thanks for the reply on the last thread to mine to AW. I made a nonsense of the line about LD and read off the wrong column(they don’t do that badly!) . However my point about ‘others’ remained as it made no difference to the Lab majority whatever one did with them.
I did the EC site, as you suggested, and put in 34 39 10 11 and it still came up with no UKIP seats and aLabour majority of 54.
So – same as YouGov and intensely depressing to both Con and UKIP.
That is unless the UNS is wrong (OOD perhaps?), which was my Q to Anthony.
So far then it’s good news all round for Labour and Tories and everyone can be happy. Makes everything so much more pleasant. :-)
These two are consistent on the LDs being on 9%….Altogether now,surely they will claw back those 2010 voters ?
heard you the first time.
I’ve now put in 30 (Con) 35 10 20 (!!)
and I still get *no* seats for UKIP and 62 majority for Labour (that’s overall of course). Not only that but LD still get 25.
It just seems counter-intuitive to this non-partisan commenter.
Sorry about the double post,great big thumbs little keys!
This may explain it. It shows how UKIP did so well in May, but still failed to really win anywhere. It also has some really nice graphs if you scroll down.
Richard, thank you. see new thread so predicted.
Here’s how it works, and why I don’t have UKIP on the swingometer.
On a uniform swing, UKIP would not win any seats at all unless they got up into the 20s somewhere (obviously it depends what the other parties do, but it’s up there somewhere). They will still only get very few seats, up to a tipping point somewhere in the 30s where they would suddenly get *tons* of seats.
This is not *necessarily* a bad prediction – in 1983 the Lib SDP alliance got so few seats compared to Labour because their surge was pretty uniform across the country. In the local elections this year UKIP got comparatively few seats for their level of support because their support was very uniform, so perhaps a high level of UKIP support at the next election would be very uniform, and hence very poor at actually returning MPs.
Alternatively if UKIP do really break through at the next election and beat the Lib Dems (which I think is extremely unlikely, but it doesn’t mean it’s not a scenario worth exploring), it’s perfectly possible that it won’t be uniform, that there will be areas and seats with particular demographics were UKIP do significantly better than others. In this case UKIP would do better than a uniform swing suggests… but by definition, it’s not a uniform swing, so has no place in a UNS calculator (and more to the point it’s impossible to predict with confidence).
So in brief, on a Uniform Swing UKIP wouldn’t win any seats at all on any likely share of the vote, so it’s a waste of time programming it. On more unlikely shares of the vote, it seems unlikely to me that UKIP support would be uniform, so a UNS calculator would be misleading…. which is why I don’t include UKIP in the swingometer – it would be pointless at low levels, misleading at high ones.
Thanks very much – will give fuller answer on next thread.