The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor for the Standard shows the two main parties neck and neck, CON 35%(+1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 10%(-1). This is the first time MORI have shown the Conservatives catching Labour since January 2012, when David Cameron was enjoying a boost from his European “veto”. Looking at the wider context, while this poll may well be an outlier in the Conservatives’ favour, the underlying average lead does seem to have got down to the mid-single figures, meaning normal random variation will sometimes split out polls with tiny or non-existent Labour leads.
MORI also asked people which of the policies highlighted during the conferences would be best for them and the country. Ed Miliband’s promise of a fuel tax promise came top of both, followed by George Osborne’s freeze on fuel duty and far ahead of help to buy or the expansion of free childcare. The post conference period so far has been a good illustration of how a popular policy does not necessarily translate into a boost in voting intention. Polls have been pretty consistent in showing widespread support for Labour’s promised energy price freeze and it has received widespread coverage… but that does not mean it actually moves any votes (or at least, not enough to show up in polls).
Full tabs from MORI are here.