The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor for the Standard shows the two main parties neck and neck, CON 35%(+1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 10%(-1). This is the first time MORI have shown the Conservatives catching Labour since January 2012, when David Cameron was enjoying a boost from his European “veto”. Looking at the wider context, while this poll may well be an outlier in the Conservatives’ favour, the underlying average lead does seem to have got down to the mid-single figures, meaning normal random variation will sometimes split out polls with tiny or non-existent Labour leads.

MORI also asked people which of the policies highlighted during the conferences would be best for them and the country. Ed Miliband’s promise of a fuel tax promise came top of both, followed by George Osborne’s freeze on fuel duty and far ahead of help to buy or the expansion of free childcare. The post conference period so far has been a good illustration of how a popular policy does not necessarily translate into a boost in voting intention. Polls have been pretty consistent in showing widespread support for Labour’s promised energy price freeze and it has received widespread coverage… but that does not mean it actually moves any votes (or at least, not enough to show up in polls).

Full tabs from MORI are here.


362 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 35, LAB 35, LD 9, UKIP 10”

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  1. @ Steve

    Not advertising or anything but the Cheapest provider is actually OVO One of the New Players it only has two tariffs to choose from and unlike the big 6 was entirely sanguine about a Price Freeze for 20 Months as it considers the current market to be dysfunctional.
    —————–
    The problem with small providers like OVO is that (in the past) they have built up a good sized customer base by being independent & offering good deals – then they sell their business to one of the big energy companies.

  2. AW

    Is there any reason to think that the swingometer is no longer trustworthy, now that one cannot even input the UKIP score, even though that is usually higher than the LD one?

    I played around with current polling (39 34 10) and then bumped around, for instance with a higher LD score of 15 (only raises them from 10 to 15 seats and Lab majority stays around 55 -60 anyway).

    That’s what got me thinking about the above question.

  3. @ Richard

    Basically we are running a large deficit that needs to be reduced, our society is aging so there will be less workers to support those who are not working…
    —————-
    People keep saying this but a little research shows there are millions of pensioners now continuing to work after ‘retirement’ & their numbers are expected to grow. i.e. There is no impending general shortage of workers.

    Regarding funding, it is a shortage of NIC & tax paying workers which undermines the health service & pension viability. IMO, The government ought to reconsider the existing NIC & tax regime which puts retirees & their employers at an advantage over other, non-retired, employees. This would go some way towards narrowing the funding gap. Why hasn’t Osborne done this, with a view to reducing the deficit? Probably because it could cost his Party lots of ‘grey’ votes.

  4. Turk
    Thanks-hope your donkeys were OK.

    THe Press have made much more of Labour’s Price Freeze than the re-organisation it is supposed to facilitate.

    I guess the public have little interest in process & re-organisation at this stage.

  5. New thread – Saturday Night At The Movies? Saturday Night’s Alright for Fighting? No, it’s Saturday Night Polls. Are we geeks or what?

  6. @ Amber

    I agree, your proposal make sense. I think the government should think about ways to ensure better off pensioners continue to contribute to the NHS, whether working or not. Perhaps it could be done by merging income tax and NIC’s.

  7. @Howard

    This site has one that you can plug UKIP into

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

    – press the include UKIP button.

    But whether it is still valid or not, I will have to defer to someone more knowledgeable.

  8. @Oldnat – “Carbon emissions may well be reduced by high prices, but that is a cost which will fall disproportionately on the poor – not through their paying more, but simply by being cold through economic necessity.”

    That isn’t particularly correct. There are people living in cold homes through fuel poverty – that’s beyond dispute – but many other low and average earners are warm enough but live in smaller homes. Flats have the lowest heating costs, for example. Switching charges from energy to other forms of taxation will be a more regressive method than we currently have – trust me on this, as it’s it’s one of the few areas where I know what I’m talking about.

    The rest of your post about the network and whether energy companies are the right delivery mechanism for energy efficiency initiatives – I’m absolutely with you on those.

  9. ALEC

    It’s because you know what you’re talking about, that the topic is worth discussing with you!

    However, I presume that your data is based on UK (or GB?) statistics.

    Applying the conclusions from those may be applicable to Scotland – or they may not. I’m happy to accept your analysis for Scotland’s somewhat different housing stock and concentration of poverty in particular types of housing, if you have done that as a separate analysis.

    “Flats have the lowest heating costs”

    Indeed – if you are talking about our tenements (a category of housing that I don’t think is used in UK . It’s also probably true of the “four in a block” housing commonly built in the first half of the 20th century. Whether it’s also true of publicly built flatted accommodation in the latter part of that century may be another matter.

    What requires clarification is what type of housing the poor are concentrated in. That is something that might vary significantly in different parts of the UK.

    Analysis of your data by the “regions” of the UK might suggest that your conclusions are still accurate everywhere, but in our political system, policies should be designed to suit our situation and not that elsewhere. The SNP may well have got this wrong, but only Scottish data can confirm that.

  10. @Oldnat – all pertinent observations, but I have a single data set from Scotland (borders village, so not typical). I think my response would be that the evidence I’ve got comes from a wide range of house types, representing all the key housing types currently found in the UK.

    What I actually found quite odd about all of this (and it did cause me to revisit and re analyse lots of old data to make sure) was that the correlation between number of bedrooms and energy consumption remains extremely strong and stable across all housing types. On this basis, I would argue that the house size categorization remains the best predictor of energy use throughout the UK.

  11. ALEC

    Thanks for that.

    I can’t see how you can talk about “all the key housing types currently found in the UK” meaningfully in a Scottish context.

    Tenements are a critical aspect of the Scottish housing stock, and are included in all housing stock measures here.

    As you point out, you have no useful Scottish data, so maybe I won’t agree to ” trust me on this, as it’s it’s one of the few areas where I know what I’m talking about.” :-)

  12. RICHARD
    “Should we raise the pension age faster so there are less pensioners to support and more workers to support them? ”

    I agree – as being personally involved – with Amber’s comment that there is an increasing proportion of pension age people continuing to work. Since they go on paying income tax they contribute not just to the economy but to revenue. i wonder if there should not be some mechanism for ring-fencing the tax paid by pensioners to contribute directly to care of the aged? This is an area where we need to see radical and progressive change to the tax and pensions systems, as well as integration of health and social services, a la Burnham.

    CHARLES
    If they do lock us in the attic when we lose our marbles, I recommend keeping starvation as an option, preferably with an unlimited supply of decent wine and music.

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