TNS BMRB have a new poll out today. Topline figures are CON 34% (+5), LAB 36% (-3), LD 9%(nc), UKIP 13%(-1). These are particularly unusual figures, TNS normally show some of the biggest Labour leads of any company, and for the last six months or so have been pretty consistent in showing Labour leads up around ten points. Suddenly we have a big narrowing of the Labour lead, dropping right down to 2 points, the lowest I have from TNS since November 2011. Even withstanding the small lead in YouGov’s poll this morning, I’d treat any poll showing such a big movement with no obvious cause with some caution, I suspect the next TNS poll will show things reverting to rather more usual figures.


163 Responses to “TNS BMRB – CON 34, LAB 36, LD 9, UKIP 13”

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  1. Colin

    It’s nice to see you believe that those of us who are or have been police officers are able to maintain a level of infallibility and competence not within the realms of those of “normal ” human beings.

  2. STEVE

    Infallibility is the preserve of the Pontiff ( we are told).
    I am sure he would urge not to look for it in our policemen-or anywhere else.

    Competence however would seem to be a reasonable exchange for the pay package & respect expected from the rest of us.

  3. Colin

    You should have scrolled a bit further down that ONS Labour Market bulletin. You’d have found this.

    “Although the number of people in work has increased, the employment rate is lower than before the 2008-09 economic downturn

    The percentage of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work for June to August 2013 (the employment rate) was 71.7%, which is lower than before the 2008-09 downturn. In March to May 2008 the employment rate peaked at 73.0%. It then fell, as the economic downturn impacted on the labour market, and it reached a trough of 70.2% for July to September 2011 before recovering to reach 71.7% for June to August 2013.”

    The Govt has regularly made a great play on the fact that the number in work has increased steadily over the last 3 years. But so has the population. If you are going to quote EMPLOYMENT figures, it is only fair to look at the employment RATE.

    With that in mind, Chart 3 on page 5 of this ONS bulletin from Jun 2013 gives the big picture.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_325094.pdf

    The employment rate was improving (albeit slightly) in early 2010. It then stagnated for the thick end of two years. There was a sharp improvement in early 2012, but the rate has now been stagnant at ~71.2-71.7% for the past 18 months.

  4. Colin

    Yes a disgrace indeed being paid less in a Year than the average CEO earns in a Day to potentially put your life at risk should guarantee a level of competency seemingly beyond the grasp of our merchant banking sector.

    I should have born this in mind when I was having my skull fractured and seeing my career ended it would have been some solace to think Hey at least I am getting the big bucks!

    Most Police Officers do their best most of the time,sometimes this isn’t good enough and sometimes they ***** up just like everybody else.

  5. LEFTY

    I did read that , along with the rest of the bulletin.

    I agree that the % of people employed is a key measure.

    I wouldn’t necessarily have expected it to return to pre-crisis levels yet, given the economic backdrop in EZ , but Chart 3 is moving in the right direction.

    I don’t think anyone is claiming that employment & unemployment numbers are yet satisfactory. But in the context of the economic situation in Europe, together with the huge rebalancing from Public Sector to Private Sector employment , which I believe was necessary , and has been successful -I think the trajectory is in the right direction.

  6. STEVE

    @”Most Police Officers do their best most of the time”

    I have no reason to dispute that.

    Last evening I watched Crimewatch & the Met detectives who have ploughed through the mass of evidence on the McCann case.
    This must have been a mammoth undertaking, and notwithstanding the strange dis-interest of the Portuguese police, has brilliantly uncovered a completely new scenario & timeline.

    This from an organisation that has had me throwing stuff at the tv not so long ago.

    ( I hope the Met’s efforts are rewarded)

  7. @ Crossbat11

    No doubt, the police bought the Uncle Jimmy persona just like the rest of us did.
    ——————
    Speak for yourself; I always thought he was creepy & wouldn’t have gone within a country mile of letting Jim Fix It for me!

  8. New thread on the London poll.

  9. @Colin appreciate the point about the jobs guarantee – I was just sounding off.

    On these employment stats; I just can’t away from thoughts on wages. At +0.8%, total wages growth now the slowest since 2001 when this set of records began.

    With inflation at a modest 2.8%, this still means that inflation has outstripped pay by a big 2.1% margin, and that’s the inflation figure excluding housing costs.

    I don’t see any question that anything like robust growth can continue much longer unless we see the balance between wages and prices shift, unless we are happy to pump house prices, borrow more, and save less. Unless the global economy is booming and we are grabbing an increased share of exports, there simply isn’t enough road left for us to travel on, unless we opt to pump another bubble and await the consequences.

    This 2.1% gap is doubly concerning as it is contrasting with measured consumer confidence. People are feeling better off, but in reality it’s a false feeling. I’d rather people were realistic and took economic decisions accordingly, than thought things will get better and then suddenly realise they’re not.

  10. On these employment stats; I just can’t away from thoughts on wages. At +0.8%, total wages growth now the slowest since 2001 when this set of records began.

    With inflation at a modest 2.8%, this still means that inflation has outstripped pay by a big 2.1% margin, and that’s the inflation figure excluding housing costs.

    I don’t see any question that anything like robust growth can continue much longer unless we see the balance between wages and prices shift, unless we are happy to pump house prices, borrow more, and save less. Unless the global economy is booming and we are grabbing an increased share of exports, there simply isn’t enough road left for us to travel on, unless we opt to pump another bubble and await the consequences.

    This 2.1% gap is doubly concerning as it is contrasting with measured consumer confidence. People are feeling better off, but in reality it’s a false feeling. I’d rather people were realistic and took economic decisions accordingly, than thought things will get better and then suddenly realise they’re not.

  11. @Alec

    Spare a thought also for public sector workers, whose real wages have decreased in cash terms by 0.7% and in real terms value by some 3.4% in the space of just a year. Goodness what the cumulative losses since 2010 stand at now, with or without pensions.

    For the public sector at least there’s no end in sight for this, whatever happens to the economy.

  12. @Phil.

    My real terms income has probably dropped by 15% since 2010.

    But when I look at the prospects for young people today, I find my self-pity a little blunted.

  13. COLIN
    “I think the subsequent contributions have established that the “job guarantee” is for a short limited period.”

    Since you’ve quoted me, quite correctly, on the aim of “full employment”, yes, I agree it is guaranteed employment for a limited period, but it is clearly not intended that those so employed should fall back into long-term unemployment. Hence the need for a package of measures, not just policies, but ones which will have a measurable benefit for the individuals and a measurable outcome in both the aggregate employment figures and in the “value added” earnings and quality of work and wellbeing of the employed. That’s why evidence and detail will be so important, and to be looked for in policy commitments.

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